Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer here to see the changes made to the rating system.

Thirty-eight National Leaguers earned a 1 for their performance through last week. This week, twelve pitchers joined the list, while eight departed.

The twelve new pitchers include Mike Myers, John Thomson, Andy Ashby, Paul Quantrill, Ben Sheets, Pedro Astacio, Mike Williams, Trevor Hoffman, Gene Stechschulte, and Mike Crudale, with Scott Williamson and Brandon Duckworth rejoining after missing last week. The eight former LIMA pitchers are Tom Glavine(K/9), Kevin Millwood(HR/9 and H/9), Antonio Alfonseca(K:BB), Joe Borowski(HR/9), Scott Sullivan(HR/9), A.J. Burnett(K:BB and HR/9), Josh Fogg(K/9), and Jay Witasick(K:BB).

Please refer here if you'd like to take another look at some of our methodology.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the third set of 2002 in-season LPR ratings, which include all games played through May 24th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Randy Johnson(55355)

Robb Nen

I suspect Randy's 3 will keep working it's way to the left of a string of 5s. Schilling's more dominant this year, but we'd be happy to own either pitcher in more leagues. Nen remains the closer with the most consistently high skills in the NL.

123
Jason Isringhausen
Jose Mesa
Billy Wagner

Izzy's fulfilled all our expectations this year, and Mesa and Wagner are both pitching solidly despite slower starts than last season.

124
abcxyz - Al Leiter(04443)

He's not dominating nearly as much as in April, when he compiled a 55055 log, but he's still only gotten blown out twice to go with his seven great outings.

234
abxy - Brian Lawrence(34034)

Juan Cruz(41005)
Jeremy Fikac
Luis Pineda
Felix Rodriguez

Cruz's value should be at its lowest point right now; jump in before he starts winning as part of the Cubs' resurgence. The command of all three relievers worries me, and even Lawrence is starting to appear questionable.

12
abcxyz - Curt Schilling(45545)
abxyz - Javier Vazquez(54454)
abx - Roy Oswalt(25354)

Mike Remlinger
Dave Weathers

Schilling has six 5s and five 4s, Vazquez has three 5s, six 4s, and one 3, and Oswalt has five 5s, two 4s, two 3s, and a 2. Along with Randy, I'd rather own these three starters than anyone else in NL; Leiter, Morris, and Wood are on the short list for #5, with Beckett and potentially Prior closing quickly. Both relievers are great; either one could help you in four categories.

13
Byung-Hyun Kim
Paul Quantrill
Steve Reed
Luis Vizcaino

I see no reason for Kim not continue closing until at least the end of July, although Vizcaino appears to have lost any chance at saves with Leskanic and Fox about to return. The other two middle relievers, while less useful than Remlinger or Weathers, should still be owned in most leagues.

14
axy - Ben Sheets(25355)

Trevor Hoffman
Scott Strickland
Gabe White
Scott Williamson

Sheets' skills have astounded me this season as I didn't expect him to emerge as even a #2 starter until next year. Hoffman continues to excel and the other three relievers all have closer potential; acquire anyone here if available at reasonable cost.

23
abcxy - Kerry Wood(23544)
by - Brad Penny(23040)

Octavio Dotel
Kyle Farnsworth
Jeff Fassero
Josias Manzanillo
Nick Neugebauer(42451)

Only Wood, Dotel, and perhaps Fassero seem exempt from injury concerns at the moment; acquiring any of the others is a risk.

24
z - Britt Reames
Justin Speier

We're holding onto Reames in one or two leagues, but his H/9 remain far too high for us to use him that often.

34
acyz - Kevin Brown(44542)
bcyz - Greg Maddux(25433)

Jose Acevedo(51030)
Chad Fox
Dave Veres

Of course we're miffed about Acevedo's demotion, but the Reds had little choice as long as they insist on using Jose Rijo. Brown seems safe to acquire, although remain wary of Maddux, Fox, and Veres.

1
abxy - John Thomson(52434)
axy - Kevin Jarvis(43444)
axz - Jeff D'Amico(25055)
bxy - Matt Morris(35530)
ax - Andy Ashby(52435)
ax - Vicente Padilla(43534)
xy - Brandon Duckworth(35023)
xz - Matt Clement(34033)
x - Carlos Hernandez(55353)

We've even picked up Thomson in a league without any reserve roster in the belief that his skills will compensate for the occasional Coors' disaster. Padilla hasn't registered anything below a 3, and Ashby's suddenly picked it up, having not thrown a single disaster. Everyone here except Jarvis, due to his injury, appears a good bet at the moment.

Omar Daal(55)
Brian Boehringer
Mike Crudale
Mike Fetters
Eric Gagne
Darren Holmes
T.J. Mathews
Kent Mercker
Mike Myers
Scott Sauerbeck
Gene Stechschulte
Scott Stewart
Mike Williams
Tim Worrell

Gagne and Williams obviously top this group, but Daal, Sauerbeck, and Stewart are also very useful in many leagues. Aside from Mercker, everyone else is at least quality roster filler at the moment.

2
abcxyz - Darryl Kile(22234)
abxy - Tony Armas, Jr.(54414)
bxyz - Randy Wolf(04342)
bxy - Russ Ortiz(33452)
by - Jason Schmidt(00050)

Nelson Cruz
Jose Jimenez
Steve Kline
Kerry Ligtenberg
Jose Nunez
Vladimir Nunez
John Smoltz
Scott Sullivan

Kile finally earned all six PQS points, becoming only the fourth NL pitcher, along with Randy, Leiter, and Schilling, to accomplish this feat for 2002. We're concerned about Wolf and Schmidt, and Ortiz seems back to his old control problems, although Armas remains a great pickup. Nunez, Smoltz, Sullivan, and probably Jimenez are the only acceptable relievers here.

3
bxyz - Jon Lieber(42433)
by - Ruben Quevedo(12035)
a - Ryan Jensen(05344)
a - Tim Redding(54354)

Jason Bere(33241)
Jose Cabrera(04)
Pedro Borbon
Giovanni Carrara
Joey Eischen
Mike Matthews
Jay Witasick

We've been very happy with Jensen and Redding this year; we'd almost rather own them than Lieber. Quevedo finally appears to be pitching well this year, though only Cabrera and potentially Witasick look good from the second group.

4
b - Bud Smith(3100)

Kris Benson(050)
Doug Brocail
Vic Darensbourg
Aaron Fultz
Greg Swindell

Benson's a good risk, but the other pitchers all seem too inconsistent to own right now.

a
cxyz - Ryan Dempster(34551)
cxz - Glendon Rusch(50340)
xyz - Denny Neagle(55345)
xy - Pedro Astacio(44454)
x - Josh Beckett(53255)
x - Josh Fogg(34553)
x - Tomokazu Ohka(52424)
x - Kazuhisa Ishii(54332)
x - Odalis Perez(43530)

Beckett and Astacio are the best pitchers here, but I like everyone on this list right now. Aside from Neagle, who I'm still only willing to own in leagues where we can bench him in Coors, every other starter here should certainly be owned in every league.

b
cyz - Wade Miller(041)
cy - Hideo Nomo(42015) y - Steve Trachsel(31335)
Terry Adams(50524)

Trachsel's suddenly starting to impress a little, and Nomo and Adams both look like decent bets at the moment. Even Miller could be good once he returns from injury, so certainly at least hold onto all of these pitchers.

c
xy - Robert Person(43433)
yz - Kevin Millwood(53403)
yz - Woody Williams(05)
Rick Ankiel

Millwood and Williams are both solid buys at the moment, and Person and Ankiel remain huge risks when they return from the DL.

x
yz - Shane Reynolds(44342)
yz - Tom Glavine(52234)
yz - Elmer Dessens(44333)
yz - A.J. Burnett(33523)
yz - Livan Hernandez(33301)
y - Jason Marquis(53135)
y - Shawn Chacon(32344)
y - Nelson Figueroa(33330)
z - Rick Helling(40524)
z - Mike Hampton(32443)
z - Carl Pavano(22304)
Kip Wells(43543)
Miguel Batista(34530)
Damian Moss(34233)
Brett Tomko(24320)
Kirk Rueter(22412)
Bobby J. Jones(35302)

Most pitchers here, aside from Chacon and Hampton, aren't likely to hurt you, but only Glavine, Burnett, Marquis, Moss, and Tomko offer significant immediate upside.

y
Brian Tollberg(43232)
Sean Lowe(0)
Darren Drefort

Tollberg seems to have righted himself; we'll be happy as long as he can avoid complete disasters.

z
Shawn Estes(32441)
Jamey Wright(05)
Albie Lopez(023)
Julian Tavarez(12003)
Bruce Chen(00320)
Andy Benes(000)

You should probably avoid these pitchers for the moment; they're just too risky.

NL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear here include Antonio Alfonseca, Armando Benitez, Joe Borowski, Ricky Bottalico, Mike DeJean, Jason Jennings(for road starts only), Jason Middlebrook, Mark Prior(5), Chris Reistma(33435), Jason Simontacchi(414), Dennis Tankersley(342), and Mike Willams. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other frequently owned pitchers who've shown little overt skill in the last three years include Jimmy Anderson, Dave Coggin, Matt Herges, Graeme Lloyd, Braden Looper, Dave Mlicki, Jose Rijo, Garrett Stephenson, Todd Stottlemyre, Ron Villone, and Dave Williams(who's current running a 20000). Bench or release Williams immediately until his PQS improves.

Today's Fantasy Rx: In yesterday's Rx, I discussed the Phillies' potential lineup. I concluded that the Phillies don't need to receive offense in exchange for Scott Rolen, although I do believe they should deal him, rather than only receive draft picks when he leaves as a free agent.

Here are the five deals I believe would most benefit both the Phillies and the team receiving Rolen. He's stated a preference for staying in the Midwest, preferably somewhere near his Indiana hometown, so I'm only considering teams either near Indiana or who could help him win this year, thus making him more likely to re-sign.

I also won't consider any team that appears unlikely to add a major contract due to payroll concerns or a primarily right-handed lineup, dismissing the Cubs, White Sox, and Cardinals from the discussion, although the two Chicago teams certainly have the personnel necessary for a deal.

While the Phillies appear set with Padilla, Wolf, Duckworth, and Myers in the rotation, they could use a second left-hander and a true power right-hander, especially since these four are young, potential injury risks. They also need bullpen depth.

Potential Rolen Derby Results

Honorable Mention: Baltimore. The Orioles need a superstar, and after failing to complete a deal at the Winter Meetings, can now deal Sidney Ponson and/or Jason Johnson due to the emergence of younger pitchers. They also have the funds necessary to sign Rolen. Philadelphia might consider a package of Ponson, Erik Bedard, and B.J. Ryan, but I think they can find a better trade elsewhere.

5th place: Cincinnati. Cincinnati could use a right-handed #3 hitter to balance their order, but doesn't really have the pitching necessary to complete a deal; however they could move Sean Casey for a couple of young starters to a team like Anaheim or Tampa Bay. A lineup featuring Dunn/Rolen/Griffey/Kearns will rank with the best in the game.

Philly could accept a package of Juan Encarnacion, Chris Reitsma, Aaron Boone, and David Espinosa, giving them one emerging starter, a better centerfielder than Glanville, a replacement third baseman, and a future second baseman. Cincy doesn't have the pitching of Baltimore, but Rolen seems far more likely to re-sign with Cincinnati than Baltimore.

4th place: Detroit. A fantastic 2001 draft left them with tradable depth, and Rolen is the perfect compliment to the fiery Bobby Higginson in the middle of the lineup. They should trade Jeff Weaver before he hits arbitration, so could offer Weaver, Mark Redman, and Chris Truby since they have extra starters but desperately need an offensive star. Rolen is one of the few players that deserves a significant financial commitment, and shedding Weaver's salary opens up enough payroll room in Detroit.

3rd place: Colorado. The Rockies would need to move either Mike Hampton or Larry Walker, or even both to Boston for Manny Ramirez for this deal to make sense, but Rolen's a great fit in Denver. He could either hit cleanup between Helton and Walker, or if they also do a Boston trade, could bat second, after Pierre, and in front of Helton, Manny, Cust, and Uribe.

Colorado can deal Denny Neagle, Dennis Stark, Garrett Atkins, and Colin Young for Rolen and Doug Glanville, which gives Philly a top left-hander, inexpensive 6th starter, and potentially a better long-term 3B option than Chapman or Utley. Young should be ready for a major league bullpen by next year.

2nd place: Cleveland. A package of Bartolo Colon, Travis Fryman, Ricardo Rincon, and Paul Shuey clears out significant payroll room and allows Cleveland the ability to re-sign both Rolen and Jim Thome. A middle of the order that includes Matt Lawton, Scott Rolen, Jim Thome, Ellis Burks, and Russ Branyan will enable Cleveland to remain competitive as their young pitching matures. While Colon, Rincon, and Shuey might do it, they include Fryman to open the position and shed payroll.

Philly takes on the extra payroll because they pick up a borderline ace in Colon, along with two of the best middle relievers in the game. Fryman also gives Chapman and Utley more time in the minors, as well as adding a clubhouse leader with playoff experience. A bullpen of Mesa, Shuey, Rincon, Silva, and Cormier ranks with the deepest pens in the league.

1st place, and the most likely destination for Scott Rolen: San Francisco.

Philadelphia trades Scott Rolen to San Francisco.

Rolen, who gives San Francisco perhaps the best 2-3-4 in the game hitting after Aurilia and Bonds, should be happy to sign at least a three-year deal with a team determined to win a World Series before Barry retires. Even after Bonds departs in a few seasons, Rolen should be a great offensive anchor for a perpetual contender.

Philadelphia receives...

... Jeff Kent, also a pending free agent, returns to his former position at third, and likely signs an extension with a Philadelphia organization now close to an extended playoff run; after his Spring Training incident, I don't expect him to re-sign with the Giants. He can hit anywhere from 4th to 7th over the next couple of years. With the money from Rolen's extension, the Phillies can afford to keep him for a couple of seasons, as well as add...

...Jason Schmidt, who gives them a potential dominating starter to replace Robert Person, who's both injured and likely to depart as a free agent. Schmidt's very expendable with the development of Ainsworth, Jensen, Jerome Williams, and Jeff Urban in San Francisco. While Philadelphia still lacks an ace, the development of their four under-27 starters provides them with the depth necessary to compete in a pitching-deep division.

This potential deal between the Giants and Phillies could reshape both teams into immediate World Series contenders, and while I don't expect them to complete something along these lines, I believe it provides both teams with the most immediate upside. They could make this trade even if in contention, theoretically improving both rosters two months prior to meeting in the playoffs.