Today's Fantasy Rx

Nineteen pitchers earned a 1 for their performance this season as of last week. Six more joined the list this week while one dropped off, bringing our total of LIMA-quality 2002 AL pitchers with at least 15 IP to twenty-four.

Pitchers who joined the list include Buddy Groom, Sun-Woo Kim, Juan Acevedo, Mike Stanton, Ted Lilly, and Ryan Rupe, who rejoined the list after a one-week absence.

Eddie Guardado dropped off the list due to a blown save in New York in which he allowed a homer, bringing him to 1.2 HR/9. He'll need 5.1 IP with no homers while maintaining the rest of his skill ratios to rejoin our list.

Please refer here if you'd like to take another look at some of our methodology.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the third set of 2002 in-season LPR ratings, which include all games played through May 23rd. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Pedro Martinez(30555)

Arthur Rhodes
Mariano Rivera

Pedro finally moves up to a perfect LPR score with his 10th start of the year, thus earning the DIS point despite two 0 starts. Rhodes and Rivera remain the two most consistent relievers in the league.

123
abcxyz - Roger Clemens(45355)
abxyz - Kevin Appier(44454)
abxy - Roy Halladay(44534)

Appier's dominant streak coincided with Anaheim's rather sudden offensive outburst, so he's on pace for close to 20 wins at the moment. We consider Clemens to be potentially the most underrated pitcher in national games, and strongly recommend him, especially in Diamond Challenge. I'd feel better about Halladay if Toronto's offense and bullpen were deeper, but after his great 2001 comeback, we must view him as one of the top starters in the AL.

124
Chad Bradford

Bradford and Steve Reed are re-establishing the value of side-arming right-handed relievers as potential double-digit roto earners. If he's available in your AL-only league, grab him ASAP if you have a pitching slot open.

134
Billy Koch
Paul Shuey
Mike Stanton

We continue to like Koch more each week, and Shuey and Stanton can help in almost any league.

234
Keith Foulke

His value will head up quickly as the Sox give him more save opportunities; now is probably your last chance to buy him at a discount.

12
bx - Joel Pineiro(05252)

We'd prefer he show slightly more dominance, but we're still very happy owning him anywhere.

13
by - Tim Wakefield(453)

Buddy Groom
Steve Karsay

Three generally underrated pitchers who could all manage double-digit value this season.

23
abcxyz - Mike Mussina(35435)
abxyz - Tim Hudson(42412)
bcyz - Chan Ho Park(243)

Danys Baez(43543)
Eddie Guardado
Troy Percival

We're growing concerned over Hudson's and Baez's command problems, and even Mussina has struggled this season. Park should be fine when he's healthy, and both closers appear good bets for the rest of the season.

24
bcxyz - Bartolo Colon(55334)
cx - Paul Wilson(24233)

Dan Miceli
Ugueth Urbina
Todd Van Poppel

Bart and Wilson still have great upside, although I'm developing doubts as to whether either pitcher will ever fulfill expectations with a Cy-caliber year. Urbina should be fine, and Van Poppel's at least good roster filler.

34
xy - Joe Kennedy(34435)

Randy Choate
Rich Garces
Mike Holtz
Bob Howry
David Riske

Kennedy's pitched extremely well all season, and he may earn a 1 rating as soon as next week considering his current pace. Most of these relievers seem fairly risky right now, but Riske actually seems like the best option among these pitchers.

1
x - Ryan Rupe(35503)
x - Ted Lilly(51253)

John Halama(5240)
Jeremy Affeldt(0033)
Juan Acevedo
LaTroy Hawkins
Sun-Woo Kim
Damaso Marte
J.C. Romero

Lilly seems to have emerged from his struggles to solidify his rotation spot, and Rupe, despite one dreadful start, has registered four 5 games and four 3 games. Halama and Affeldt are both good gambles, although Affeldt has a lot more upside, and the four middle relievers would help most teams. Acevedo also appears to be a decent replacement for Anderson thus far.

2
abcxyz - Barry Zito(05453)
by - Mark Mulder(30010)
xy - Freddy Garcia(55553)
b - Rolando Arrojo
z - Kelvim Escobar

C.C. Sabathia(01424)
Matt Anderson
Lorzeno Barcelo
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Antonio Osuna
Lou Pote
Ricardo Rincon
B.J. Ryan
Rudy Seanez
Victor Zambrano

I'm relatively pleased with the four starters at the top of the list, and Escobar's also pitching fairly well. Rincon, Ryan, and Seanez are your best options on the lower list; Sabathia's a risky pickup.

3
abxy - John Burkett(55443)
yz - Rick Reed(44400)
y - Andy Pettitte(500)

Gary Glover(002)
Al Levine
Jim Mecir
Jeff Nelson
Dan Plesac
John Rocker
Bob Wickman
Kelly Wunsch

I really need to upgrade my pitching on the team where I own Burkett and Reed as my "aces". Due to injuries and ineffectiveness, the only other pitcher I can recommend here is Bob Wickman, although Plesac works as roster filler.

4
ax - Derek Lowe(45345)
y - Luke Prokopec(10302)

Lowe finally picked up the DOM point as he still hasn't posted a single PQS below 3 this year; only Paul Byrd shares that distinction among AL pitchers.

a
xy - Paul Byrd(43544)
xy - Jeff Suppan(40445)
xy - Mark Buehrle(05343)
xz - Sidney Ponson(34445)
xz - Chuck Finley(44423)
xz - Frank Castillo(35334)
z - Orlando Hernandez(53440)

I'm quite impressed with everyone on this list this year, although the re-emergence of Byrd and development of Suppan and Ponson are the most interesting. Any pitcher here is a relatively safe target for you to acquire if you need innings, and some of them should be fairly cheap to grab.

b
xy - Cory Lidle(35323)
Brandon Lyon(42030)
Matt Wise

All three pitchers are significant risks due to either injury(Lidle), inconsistency(Lyon), or playing time(Wise). I can't recommend any of them at the moment.

c
x - Mark Redman(54242)
x - David Wells(13344)
Sterling Hitchcock(0)

Redman has nice upside, but the two Yankee lefties are significant risks due to injury concerns.

x
yz - Ramon Ortiz(54453)
yz - Jarrod Washburn(33425)
yz - Kenny Rogers(30423)
y - Jeff Weaver(34435)
y - Dave Burba(05443)
y - Tanyon Sturtze(22422)
Ismael Valdes(25442)
Rodrigo Lopez(23535)
James Baldwin(23325)
Scott Erickson(33025)

The upside of most of these pitchers doesn't quite cancel their downside, however I'm comfortable recommending Ortiz, Washburn, and Burba. I have no idea how Rodrigo Lopez has managed his fantastic ERA, but I don't expect him to maintain his current performance. Rogers, Weaver, and Valdes are also decent gambles, although I harbor concerns about each of them.

y
z - Jamie Moyer(41404)
z - Brad Radke(01530)
z - Aaron Sele(13332)
z - Todd Ritchie(11120)
Erik Hiljus(44020)
Eric Milton(43024)
Jon Garland(41104)
Esteban Loiaza(25)
Scott Schoeneweis(32313)
Josh Towers(121)
Doug Davis(01212)
Paul Abbott(02300)
Joe Mays(000)
Rick Bauer

Ritchie seems to be self-destructing for no particular reason; try to keep him reserved wherever you own him. Davis is also careening towards negative value, leaving Milton and Loiaza are the only pitchers I trust on this list.

z
Jason Johnson(5105)
Blake Stein(02)
Jim Parque
Steve Parris

No change here: all four are tremendous risks, although I might consider picking up Johnson when he returns.

AL pitchers I continue to recommend despite their failure to appear here include Rob Bell, Casey Fossum, Chris George, Travis Harper, Roberto Hernandez, Hideki Irabu, Jorge Julio, Kyle Lohse, Ramiro Mendoza, Steve Sparks, Steve Woodard, Esteban Yan, and Jeff Zimmerman.

Other frequently owned pitchers who you probably shouldn't own right now include James Baldwin, Jesus Colome, Ryan Drese, Scott Erickson, Dustin Hermanson, Matt Kinney, Jose Paniagua, Dan Reichert, Willis Roberts, Bob Wells, and Mark Wohlers.

We'll cover NL LPR ratings tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: We watched Mark Prior's start, and we certainly recommend picking him up in any league where he's available and clearly upgrades your pitching. However, we don't plan to add him in Challenge, despite his probably double next week in Pittsburgh and at home against Houston unless we need the extra cap room. I also see no need to deal for him unless you're desperate for pitching, since I can't imagine his value rising much higher than it's current point.

We were kicking around some potential Scott Rolen trade scenarios earlier in the week, and I thought I'd relate some of my thoughts to you.

My general theory about lineups is that any hitter good enough to be in the top half of a NL lineup generally should only hit in 2 of the 4 slots. I prefer to have a switch-hitter leading off; actually I prefer all switch-hitters, but since that isn't realistic in almost any case, my default is LH/RH/LH alternating #1/#2/etc. Most pitchers are right-handers, and left-handers have both a natural hitting advantage and a shorter distance to run to first base.

Regarding the Phillies, Jimmy Rollins is a logical candidate to bat 1st or 2nd since he's a switch-hitter who's unlikely to post an OBP below .350, so he's almost a luxury compared to some candidates out there. Lefty Bobby Abreu remains a #2 or a #3 due to his lack of 40+ HR power. Righty Scott Rolen can hit 3rd or 4th, although I don't expect him to remain with the Phillies past this season; while he's a great player, I'm also not sure that they need him. Pat Burrell could mature into a cleanup hitter by the end of this year. Finally, Jeremy Giambi is one of those rare players who currently has the skills necessary to hit almost anywhere in the lineup.

As Jess discussed earlier in the week, we think the Phillies' best long-term option is to use Abreu and Byrd in CF/RF with Giambi/Burrell at LF/1B in some combination. Rollins is fine at SS, and switch-hitter Johnny Estrada might be able to take over for Lieberthal in the near future; he's pounding AA at the moment. AAA 3B Chase Utley and AA 3B Travis Chapman both could start at 3rd in the majors; Utley even came up as a second baseman, so he might succeed Marlon Anderson for financial reasons.

We really like their overall combination of players, and a lineup like the following looks fairly promising to us:

1.	Jimmy Rollins, SS-S
2.	Marlon Byrd, RF-R
3.	Bobby Abreu, CF-L
4.	Pat Burrell, 1B-R
5.	Jeremy Giambi, LF-L
6.	Mike Lieberthal, C-R, or Johnny Estrada, C-S
7.	Marlon Anderson, 2B-L, or Chase Utley, 2B-L
8.	Travis Chapman, 3B-R

Adding more talent to this lineup only increases the upside of an offense likely already above league average. Therefore Philadelphia could trade Rolen for only pitching, but we also have some other ideas. I'll continue this section in tomorrow's Daily Rx.