Today's Fantasy Rx

With the presentation of our first set of 2002 in-season LPR numbers, we've modified the system in several ways to make it both more accurate and easier to use.

First, as mentioned last week, we're requiring a five-start minimum for earning the PQS notation; we're also now using a 55% DOMinance requirement while maintaining the 20% DISaster maximum.

Second, we've added a minimum innings requirement. In order to earn any LIMA notation, a pitcher will need at least 15 IP in the selected period. We've also decided to exclude MLEs in determining a pitcher's LPR since we don't have access to in-season numbers. Any pitcher earning credit for a full season of work will receive a notation for the second half of the year.

Third, we're adding H/9 as a standard requirement. While we recognize that recent statistical studies have shown little relationship between pitchers and base hits allowed on balls in play, a high H/9 still indicates that a pitcher allows too many baserunners. We consider this a sound statistic measuring an outcome, and it also measures the skill a pitcher displayed on that particular team. Finally, and most importantly, we're bowing to simplicity in reverting to Ron Shandler's original LIMA skill targets: 2 or more K:BB, 6 or more K/9, and 1 or less HR/9. We're adding a basic 9 or less H/9 (or 1 or less H/IP) to better account for a pitcher's ability to maintain a low WHIP. While we considered incorporating a 1.0 G-F ratio, we don't currently have the infrastructure or database necessary to keep current data, and G-F ratio is measured, to some extent, in the HR/9 gauge.

We hope you'll agree that these changes make LPR more accessible and more useful for fantasy owners.

A few dozen pitchers earned a or x ratings but only fourteen pitchers earned a 1 for their performance this season.

Eight AL starters qualify for the new LIMA standards thus far in 2002: Jeremy Affeldt, Roger Clemens, Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Pedro Martinez, Mark Mulder, Joel Pineiro, and Ryan Rupe.

The three AL middle relievers that qualify are LaTroy Hawkins, J.C. Romero, and Paul Shuey, and the three AL closers are Eddie Guardado, Jorge Julio, and Billy Koch.

Please refer here if you'd like to take another look at some of our methodology.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here are the first set of 2002 in-season LPR ratings which include all games played through May 9th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcyz - Pedro Martinez(45530)

Several pitchers are truly close to a 1234 but only Pedro also maintained a great hit rate back in 2000. He missed a perfect rating by only two outs in his last start, and I expect him to regain his status after three more starts.

123
abcxyz - Roger Clemens(55453)
abxyz - Tim Hudson(34424)
abxy - Roy Halladay(45044)

Eddie Guardado

All four of these pitchers have dominated over the last two seasons, and thanks to the lack of any recent injury history, there's less risk in these four than in picking up Pedro.

134
Billy Koch
Paul Shuey

Two stud relievers who would aid any roto team. I'm losing hope that Shuey will ever see a real shot at closing, but Koch appears recovered from his troubles in the second half of last season and could help anyone needing saves.

234
Keith Foulke
Arthur Rhodes
Mariano Rivera

Each of these formerly solid relievers has experienced some problems this year, but the statistical history of all three suggests the strong possibility of a rebound.

12
by - Mark Mulder(530)
by - Joel Pineiro(05)

Two very high upside pitchers who could post fifteen wins each with good offensive support over the rest of the year.

23
abcxyz - Mike Mussina(53235)
abxyz - Kevin Appier(50444)
bcyz - Chan Ho Park(2)

Danys Baez(04435)
Troy Percival

These five pitchers have experienced a wide range of success this season. Mussina and Percival suffer from elevated HR/9 rates, and Appier and Baez continue to walk too many batters. All of them, even Park when healthy, should at least be solid for the second half, although remain a little cautious when discussing deals for any of them.

24
bcxyz - Bartolo Colon(22553)
cx - Paul Wilson(32242)

Chad Bradford
Dan Miceli
Ugueth Urbina
Todd Van Poppel

Colon and Wilson are two of the highest-upside, highest-risk pitchers in the league. I don't expect either to truly break out this season, although I think both could manage an a rating by the All-Star break. Bradford, Urbina, and Van Poppel all remain fairly safe options for your bullpen, although avoid Miceli until he establishes himself with a new team and starts putting up solid stats.

34
xy - Joe Kennedy(23344)

Randy Choate
Rich Garces
Mike Holtz
Bob Howry
David Riske
Mike Stanton

Kennedy's really beginning to impress me with his consistently rising PQS track(his first two starts were both 2s). Of these six relievers, I trust Garces, Riske, and Stanton, and Howry seems to have rebounded from his control problems. Choate and Holtz, like most lefty relievers, are only good plays when you don't have pitchers with better skills available.

1
x - Ryan Rupe(33535)

Jeremy Affeldt(00)
LaTroy Hawkins
Jorge Julio
J.C. Romero

Rupe will earn an ax rating if he can post a 4 or 5 in his next start. He's been above average in every appearance this season, and he's certainly a great target if you need a likely inexpensive starter. Affeldt's 00 thus far is mostly due to hitting his pitch counts early, but I approve of the Royals taking care of his arm. We're looking to add him in more leagues. Julio may be the top young closer in baseball, and despite their respective struggles in the past, both Hawkins and Romero are risky, albeit very interesting plays if you need relief help, although I wouldn't actively seek either in trade.

2
abcyz - Barry Zito(40505)
xy - Freddy Garcia(02555)
b - Rolando Arrojo
z - Kelvim Escobar

Matt Anderson
Lorzeno Barcelo
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Antonio Osuna
Lou Pote
Ricardo Rincon
B.J. Ryan
C.C. Sabathia(50014)
Kazuhiro Sasaki
Rudy Seanez
Victor Zambrano

The appearance of Sabathia on this list illustrates both his youth and downside; contenders who own him should likely look to deal him for safer pitching. Zito's inconsistency is troubling, although he remains a top starter. Garcia's last three starts have been great, and anyone seeking a high-upside pitcher should attempt to acquire him immediately. The 12 relievers here provide you with a variety of options ranging from consistent stars like Sasaki to high-upside though currently struggling pitchers like Victor Zambrano and young lefties who could help your ERA/WHIP a little like B.J. Ryan.

3
xyz - Rick Reed(03444)
by - John Burkett(2554)
by - Tim Wakefield(45)
y - Andy Pettitte(500)

Pedro Borbon
Gary Glover(0)
Buddy Groom
Steve Karsay
Al Levine
Jim Mecir
Jeff Nelson
Dan Plesac
John Rocker
Bob Wickman
Kelly Wunsch

Reed and Burkett are relatively safe pitchers who I'm using to anchor my pitching on one AL team. Wickman, Groom, Karsay, and Wakefield offer the best chance at saves here, although I would have no problem using anyone on this list if I needed roster filler for two weeks.

4
x - Derek Lowe(53453)
y - Luke Prokopec(34410)

Lowe, Rupe, Byrd, and El Duque are the only pitchers with five starts who haven't posted one PQS below 3. They are the four safest starters to own this year, and all likely remain somewhat undervalued in many leagues. Prokopec has not displayed an acceptable level of consistency, so you should likely avoid him for the next few weeks.

a
xy - Jeff Suppan(44404)
xy - Paul Byrd(4434)
xy - Mark Buehrle(44053)
xz - Orlando Hernandez(55344)
xz - Sidney Ponson(44534)
xz - Frank Castillo(44035)
xz - Chuck Finley(04244)
y - Eric Milton(44043)

I was quite shocked to discover that everyone with abc, ab, ac, or bc rankings qualified for LIMA during one of the periods in question. Byrd and Hernandez are the safest pitchers here, and Buehrle and Milton offer the most upside. Suppan, Castillo, Finley, and Ponson should top your list of likely very cheap targets in any league where you need to add innings quickly. I have no problem recommending everyone on this list, although be aware of their respective upcoming opponents before you add anyone here.

b
xy - Cory Lidle(03532)
Brandon Lyon(23420)
Matt Wise

Three of the most underrated starters in the game all experienced relatively slow starts to the year, with Wise even beginning the year in AAA due to Anaheim's fascination with Scott Schoeneweis. Despite their lack of LIMA ratings, all three appear to be very good trade targets at the moment.

c
x - Mark Redman(52542)
x - David Wells(34133)
Sterling Hitchcock

You should explore alternatives before adding any of these high-risk, high-upside left-handers to your team. Any of them could post double-digit value, but they could also manage double-digit negative value.

x
yz - Ramon Ortiz(32544)
yz - Kenny Rogers(24530)
yz - Jarrod Washburn(03334)
y - Dave Burba(25054)
y - Tanyon Sturtze(24422)
y - Jeff Weaver(21434)
Calvin Maduro(23344)
Ismael Valdes(03254)
Darren Oliver(33043)
Steve Sparks(33132)

Ortiz, Rogers, Washburn, Burba, Oliver, and Sparks all look like fairly good pick-ups at the moment, with Ortiz and Burba likely offering the most upside, especially in strikeouts. I'm not overly comfortable with any other pitchers on this list

y
z - Jamie Moyer(14414)
z - Todd Ritchie(55111)
z - Aaron Sele(42132)
z - Brad Radke(10153)
Erik Hiljus(23440)
Doug Davis(443012)
Jon Garland(51241)
Scott Schoeneweis(13032)
Josh Towers(121)
Joe Mays(000)
Rick Bauer

I like Moyer, and I wouldn't object to carrying Ritchie, Davis, or even Radke on our teams, but these pitchers offer tremendous downside with very little upside. I'm still hoping Mays can rebound, although he might be a better target in 2003.

z
Jason Johnson(5105)
Jim Parque
Blake Stein

Stay away from these pitchers as I no longer even expect Stein to manage positive 2002 draft value.

AL pitchers I continue to recommend despite their failure to appear here include Rob Bell, Casey Fossum, Chris George, Hideki Irabu, Ted Lilly, Steve Woodard, Esteban Yan, and Jeff Zimmerman. Please recognize that these are fairly risky and unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other frequently owned pitchers who've shown little overt skill in the last three years include James Baldwin, Jesus Colome, Ryan Drese, Scott Erickson, John Halama, Dustin Hermanson, Roberto Hernandez, Matt Kinney, Ramiro Mendoza, Jose Paniagua, Dan Reichert, Willis Roberts, Jeff Tam, Bob Wells, and Mark Wohlers. Hernandez, Mendoza, and Paniagua are decent pitchers, but I don't currently recommend adding anyone else from this list.

I hope you enjoyed our first in-season LPR ratings. We'll cover NL pitchers tomorrow, and we plan to continue updates these every Friday and Saturday.

Internet Challenge

No starts: Schilling, Clemens, Morris, Wood

Starters(6)
Randy Johnson: Sat:@PHI(Coggin)
Pedro Martinez: Sun:@SEA(Baldwin)
Greg Maddux: Fri:SD(Tankersley)
Kevin Brown: Sat:@FLO(J.Tavarez)
Mike Mussina: Sun:@MIN(R.Reed)
Javier Vazquez: Sat:SF(Schmidt)
Eric Gagne: 3 Road games at Florida
Brian Lawrence: Sat:@ATL(Marquis)

Relievers(4)
Keith Foulke: 3 Road games at Anaheim
Jason Isringhausen: 3 Road games at Cincinnati
Byung-Hyun Kim: 3 Road games at Philadelphia
Eddie Guardado: 3 Home games vs. New York Yankees
Jorge Julio: 3 Road games at Tampa Bay

While we need to pick up Oswalt(Sat:@PIT(Fogg)) either today or Sunday as a free agent, we're likely going to wait until Sunday since we have a very nice bunch of starts from which to choose this weekend. We'll continue to throw Gagne until we make up more ground in saves, and he may remain in our lineup for much of the rest of the year, especially considering his great salary. For salary purposes, we're also going to leave Foulke on the bench, and he's likely our cut on Sunday for Oswalt.

Randy and Pedro are automatic right now, and we also want to start Vazquez at home. However we're not sold on Maddux's health (and we want to root for a nice debut from Tank tonight), so we'll finish out our team by taking Brown and Lawrence on fairly safe road starts. Brown's shown more upside than Maddux recently, and Lawrence has dominated in four of his last five starts.

With the pitchers decided, we have 1290 of cap room remaining. We've been using Uribe in the last slot, but we'd prefer an upgrade with more power. We don't mind not starting Bonds since he's on the road, although we're pleased that we can get Chavez back into the lineup.

The Umpire Hunter
Week 6b: May 10-May 12

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	Toby Hall		320
1B	Jason Giambi		1640
1B	Ryan Klesko		1300
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Alex Rodriguez		1880
SS	Jimmy Rollins		940
OF	Sammy Sosa		1900
OF	Ichiro Suzuki		1330
OF	Lance Berkman		1320
OF	J.D. Drew		1010
OF	Adam Dunn		710
OF	Daryle Ward		620
DH	Jeremy Giambi		500		
DH	Hank Blalock		500

SP	Randy Johnson		1990
SP	Pedro Martinez		1770
SP	Kevin Brown		1430
SP	Javier Vazquez		1100
SP	Brian Lawrence		480
SP	Eric Gagne		500
RP	Jason Isringhausen	1280
RP	Byung-Hyun Kim		1200
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750

Today's Fantasy Rx: Padres Superprospect Dennis Tankersley debuts in Atlanta tonight against Greg Maddux. TBS broadcasts the game at 7:30 EDT, and we highly recommend watching the first game of perhaps the second most anticipated call-up of the season.

Regarding the most anticipated call-up, Mark Prior should pitch Sunday against Las Vegas with Cubs' GM Andy MacPhail in attendance. He could be ready to start as soon as next weekend in Milwaukee, and he also could appear at Wrigley on either May 22nd or 23rd against Pittsburgh.