Today's Fantasy Rx

We first introduced LPR, or LIMAPQS Rating in this column last week when discussing the inaugural draft for the FSICNL experts' league. If you're interested in the complete breakdown of the gauge, please take a look back at the first section of this column.

LPR is a shorthand reference to allow you to quickly see the three-year skill history of any pitcher, along with the displayed consistency (or lack thereof) by starting pitchers.

Ron Shandler, of Baseball Forecaster and BaseballHQ fame, developed both the original statistics incorporated in this reference. If you're not familiar with his work, please visit the above links for more detailed descriptions of the LIMA plan and PQS logs.

The LIMA plan is a draft strategy that focuses on loading up on offense and then spending a reduced portion of your cap on high skills' pitchers without regard for any traditional statistics. Pure Quality Starts are a quick method to identify quality starts from a skills perspective, listed on a 1-5 scale.

As we've repeatedly observed emerging pitchers, we use slightly looser guidelines for LIMA qualification instead of the traditional K:BB of 2.0 or more, K/9 of 6.0 or more, and HR/9 of 1.0 or less.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 1.9+, K/9 of 5.8+, and HR/9 of 1.2- in the second half of 2001
2 - K:BB of 1.9+, K/9 of 5.8+, and HR/9 of 1.2- in the first half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 1.9+, K/9 of 5.8+, and HR/9 of 1.2- for all of 2000
4 - K:BB of 1.9+, K/9 of 5.8+, and HR/9 of 1.2- for all of 1999

1.5 - K:BB of 1.9+, K/9 of 5.8+, and HR/9 of 1.2- for all of 2001 (if the pitcher failed to earn a 1 or 2)

I have not made any additional notation for pitchers with either a 1 or 2 who also qualify for a 1.5 because I'm looking for a pitcher who displayed some talent in either half, and pitchers who displayed skills in both halves already have a 12 notation.
(Note: All skill ratios include a player's MLEs, where appropriate, for each year in question.)

a - DOM of 50% or more in 2001
b - DOM of 50% or more in 2000
c - DOM of 50% or more in 1999
(Note: DOM, short for dominance, developed by Gene McCaffrey, measures the percentage of total starts in which a pitcher scored a 4 or 5 PQS.)

x - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2000
z - DIS of 20% or less in 1999
(Note: DIS, short for disaster, also developed by Gene McCaffrey, measures the percentage of total starts in which a pitcher scored a 0 or 1 PQS.)

We will release an Excel sheet of the following LPR pitcher ratings with our 2002 predictions in the next few days, but I wanted to spend a day of discussion on the pitchers on each league.

The most important concept to remember when using these ratings as a guide to selecting pitchers is that "lower is better", as lower numerical ratings indicate more recent skill demonstration. While the goal is consistency across the last three years, only the most skilled pitchers in the majors will maintain such an extreme level of excellence.

abc ratings are also slightly better than xyz, as a pitcher with a DOM of 50% or more has already demonstrated great starting potential, while those with a DIS of 20% or less only show enough skill to avoid blowouts once every five starts.

The LIMA section of the ratings is also more vital as the overall skill level of a pitcher is more important than his consistency in performing to his potential every time he pitchers. abcxyz ratings just provide a better guide for drafting starters, but a 12 is always preferable to a 34 among starters or relievers, and both are preferable to a 4abcxyz. Of course quantity trumps quality here, so definitely take a bcxy over an ax. The rest of the article lists current National League pitchers with their 2002 LPR pitcher rating.

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

1234
abcxyz - Randy Johnson, the best starting pitcher in the NL
by - Glendon Rusch, the most underrated starting pitcher in the NL

Robb Nen
Felix Rodriguez
Scott Strickland

We recommend targeting these pitchers in all your NL drafts, and while Johnson, Nen, and FRod have demonstrated their roto potential, Rusch and Strickland could both earn over $20 this year.

123
abxyz - Al Leiter
abxy - Javier Vazquez
abxy - Randy Wolf
ac - Matt Morris
ax - Brian Lawrence
a - Roy Oswalt
x - Bud Smith

Jason Christiansen
Vic Darensbourg
Jeff Fassero
Jose Mesa
Vicente Padilla

Second tier National League pitchers. The most surprising name on this list is Vic Darensbourg, who while not likely to have the opportunity to earn more than $5, remains a very steady middle relief option who's usually available when you need an injury replacement.

124
ax - Terry Adams
ax - Brad Penny

Octavio Dotel
Tom Gordon
Grant Roberts
Billy Wagner

All six of these pitchers have either been overworked in the last two years or experienced arm problems; Now that Grant Roberts has been converted to relief, he should be a solid late-round pick if he makes the Mets' roster.

134
abcxyz - Curt Schilling, whose 1.6 HR/9 in the first half of 2001 kept him from a perfect score

Armando Benitez
Nelson Cruz
Trevor Hoffman
Steve Kline
Cliff Politte
Mike Remlinger
Scott Stewart

While all these pitchers experienced some minor difficulty in the first half of 2001, all eightcorrected the problem in the second half and returned to their previous skill level.

234
bcxyz - Kevin Brown
aby - Chuck Smith

Jose Cabrera
John Franco
Aaron Fultz
Byung-Hyun Kim

I'm actually somewhat concerned about Brown as his DOM has dropped almost in half over the last two years and even his arm problems don't sufficiently explain a fall to 1.6 K:BB in the second half. He still could rebound to his former levels, but ignore our FBRNLC example and bid cautiously.

12
axz - Jason Schmidt
ax - Ruben Quevedo

Kyle Farnsworth
Mark Guthrie
Jason Isringhausen
Mike Matthews
Jose Nunez
Jay Witasick

These pitchers all displayed consistent skills throughout 2001 but none of them, with the exception of Jason Schmidt, had demonstrated these capabilities earlier in their careers. While I certainly hope all of them will continue these improvements, I also have a strong feeling that at least two of these pitchers will have rather dreadful seasons.

13
abxyz - Woody Williams
abxy - Wade Miller
y - Britt Reames

Kerry Ligtenberg
Jose Paniagua
Justin Speier
Scott Sullivan

All seven of these pitchers have been extremely inconsistent over the past few years. While I have much faith in most of them, especially Williams and Ligtenberg, I also wouldn't be surprised if any of them posted $0 or worse in the first half.

14
acz - Eric Gange
cz - John Smoltz

Rick White

The first two, despite some pre-season lauding, are both fantastic closer sleepers this year, and White signed with Colorado.

23
abxyz - Greg Maddux
x - Brandon Duckworth

Antonio Alfonseca
Steve Reed
Dave Veres

Duckworth has tremendous potential and barely missed a 123 by posting a 1.7 K:BB in the second half. The three relievers each see a lot of success when kept to somewhat specialized roles, but all three have rather unfortunate weaknesses: Alfonseca doesn't dominate hitters, Reed can only retire righties, and Veres runs into occasional homer problems that irk his managers.

24
acxyz - Jon Lieber
x - Nelson Figueroa

Ryan Jensen
Tomokazu Ohka

Lieber tires in the second half due to way too many IP, Jensen's a great 2002 sleeper, and the other two both have the potential to be quality pitchers if the can maintain some consistency in their skills.

34
bcxyz - Kevin Millwood
bcyz - Rick Ankiel
y - Carl Pavano

Doug Brocail
Alan Embree
Jose Silva
Greg Swindell
Gabe White

Eight highly-recommend pitchers going into 2001 that all had fairly disastrous years. Pavano and Silva still have injury concerns, Brocail's in Houston, and Ankiel's a complete wild card. The other four look like great sleepers this year.

1.5,3
Todd Jones
He could still be a capable closer, but his downside in Colorado is huge.

1.5
Kurt Ainsworth
Benito Baez
Josh Beckett
Jason Boyd
Scott Chiasson
Juan Cruz
Jeremy Fikac
Brian Fuentes
Carlos Hernandez
Kazuhisa Ishii
Jason Jennings
David Lundquist
Scott Linebrink
Jim Mann
Allen McDill
Gabe Molina
Brett Myers
Damian Moss
Nick Neugebauer
Kevin Olsen
Luis Pineda
Tim Spooneybarger
Dennis Stark
Ricky Stone
Mike Trombley
Carlos Zambrano

With the exception of Trombley, the MLEs of every other pitcher on this list accounted for a majority of this statistic. Everyone on this list can be considered at least a decent late-round pick that won't hurt you, while pitchers like Ainsworth, Beckett, Cruz, Hernandez, Ishii, and Neugebauer all have solid chances to post double-digit value if the stay healthy.

The rest of the listed pitchers all have demonstrated some skill potential but have not shown a preferable degree of consistency. While there's nothing wrong with most of them appearing on your roster this year, be aware that they carry a much higher degree of risk than those listed above.

1
abxy - Darryl Kile
acxz - Pedro Astacio axz - Russ Ortiz
ax - Tony Armas, Jr.
ax - Steve Trachsel
y - Matt Clement
y - Albie Lopez

Ricky Bottalico
Robert Ellis
Danny Graves
Jose Jimenez
T.J. Mathews
Vladimir Nunez
Scott Sauerbeck
Mike Timlin
Brett Tomko
Dave Weathers

The starters in the first half show definite potential based on their solid second halves. Kile, Astacio, and Ortiz are aces, and the other four could emerge as #3 starters or better by the end of the year. Bottalico and Nunez are both nice saves' sleepers. Sauerbeck has a great strikeout rate and will be mildly useful on some 5x5 teams. Tomko also could excel given a great park in San Diego and the full backing of his team for the first time since his rookie season.

2
abcxz - Hideo Nomo
ac - Darren Dreifort
cz - Kip Wells
a - Jose Acevedo
a -Jason Bere
x - Troy Mattes

Brian Boehringer
Jim Brower
Giovanni Carrara
Rheal Cormier
Tom Davey
Courtney Duncan
Joey Eischen
Chad Fox
Ray King
Mike Lincoln
Hector Mercado
Mike Myers
Paul Quantrill
Tim Redding
Rich Rodriguez
Tim Worrell

Nomo and Acevedo are top sleepers, Dreifort could be closing in LA as soon as September, and Bere should be a good gamble in most leagues, especially 5x5. While all of these relievers could emerge as solid 2002 roto bets, I suspect that half of them will struggle to earn positive value this year. Most of them have some weak area in their skill set that, while they managed to master in the first half of 2001, re-emerged in the second half to increase their 2001 risk. I see no reason why you couldn't draft any of these pitchers as a reserve, though aside from Fox, I wouldn't spend more than a buck or two on any of them in the auction.

3
abxy - Ryan Dempster
bcyz - Bruce Chen
xyz - Livan Hernandez
x - Ben Sheets

Ricky Bones
Zach Day
Matt Herges
Bret Prinz
John Riedling
Jose Santiago

The four starters at the top all look prepared to return to their 2000 form if they can stay healthy and in their team's rotation. All of the lower pitchers are risks due to either injury problems or playing time concerns. We'll look to potentially pick up Prinz and Rielding, but I have little faith in the others, including Herges despite all the closer propaganda surrounding him.

4
acxyz - Shane Reynolds
cz - Chris Holt
cz - Omar Daal

Andy Ashby
Tim Crabtree
Scott Downs
Seth Etherton
Matt Mantei
Garrett Stephenson
Todd Stottlemyre
Turk Wendell
Scott Williamson

With the exception of Daal, all of these pitchers have missed significant time with injury over the past two years and none of them should be considered safe risks for 2002. Williamson likely offers the most potential if Cincinnati would just leave him in the bullpen for a year or two, but I also wouldn't be surprised if he's starting by the second half, at which point we'll likely look to move him for fear of additional injury. Reynolds also could be a good pick if he doesn't fall victim to Astros' Field problems.

Pitchers with some DOM potential
abcy - Robert Person
ax - John Thomson
ay - Denny Neagle
a - Jesus Sanchez
cyz - Mike Hampton
c - Bobby J. Jones

Hampton, Neagle, and Thomson are stuck in Colorado, and Sanchez will be lucky to make the Cubs' bullpen. Jones is a homer-prone soft-tosser, almost as likely to post a $-5 than a $10. Person is the only good buy here, although the only time he's displayed 1.9+ K:BB is in 2001. His HR/9 rates have ranged from 0.7 to 1.9 over the last five years, so while he's certainly somewhat of a risk, he also goes into the year as the Phillies' ace and a probable $10+ player.

Pitchers with some DIS potential
xyz - A.J. Burnett
xyz - Tom Glavine
xy - Elmer Dessens
x - Kevin Jarvis
x - Sean Lowe
x - Jason Marquis
x - Brian Tollberg
y - Andy Benes
y - Jeff D'Amico
y - Rick Helling
y - Tony McKnight
y - Julian Tavarez
y - Jamey Wright
z - Shawn Estes
z - Armando Reynoso

Each pitchers on this list is potentially a bigger risk than the one above him, with the exception of Brian Tollberg as his command is excellent but he strikes out few batters. If given a full-time rotation job, I doubt anyone aside from Reynoso would actually post a negative value, but I also wouldn't bid into double-digits for a single pitcher on this list, including Burnett, Glavine, and Tollberg.

Pitchers who have demonstrated no appreciable skill in K:BB, K/9, and HR/9 over the last three years but are likely to be drafted in many leagues:
Jimmy Anderson
Miguel Batista
Dave Coggin
Mike Fetters
Josh Fogg
Joey Hamilton
Curt Leskanic
Graeme Lloyd
Braden Looper
Guillermo Mota
Odalis Perez
Chris Reitsma
Kirk Rueter
Ron Villone
David Williams
Mike Williams

Is anyone even slightly surprised by the presence on this list of six likely members of the Pirates' opening day pitching staff?

I hope you enjoyed this exploration of 2002 National League pitchers using LPR, a new, shorthand method for analyzing pitchers. Tomorrow I'll list the American League pitchers who qualify.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Are they any particular lineup or bullpen situations that you want me to examine in Friday's article? E-mail your preferences and I'll be happy to devote some space to your requests.