Today's Fantasy Rx

AL Designated Hitters

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2004.
Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2004.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
RAR = Runs Above Replacement; Adjusted RAR = RAR modified to
consider a player's 2004 defensive rating in Scoresheet fantasy baseball.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

1.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Travis Hafner		482	150	.311	28	109	3	96	D
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 27	B:L    T:R	25		25		46.3		46.3

Hafner remained relatively healthy and rode a strong skill set to one of the most impressive offensive seasons of the year. He even managed a .310/.437/.603 September performance despite requiring elbow surgery at the end of the month. If Hafner's contact ever bumps over .80 from his .77 last year to join his impressive combination of a .14 walk rate, 3.96 #P/PA, and a .88 G-F, he should emerge as an annual top ten position player. While losing first base eligibility hurts and he doesn't produce great numbers against southpaws, nothing here suggests you shouldn't bid to $25 with the expectation that Hafner at least will echo this stat line, if not potentially exceeded it due to his additional big league experience.

2.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Erubiel Durazo		511	164	.321	22	88	3	80	D
OAK Athletics		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 30	B:L    T:L	25		24		35.7		35.7

Dan Johnson deserves the opportunity to start, however I can't argue with the rationale of keeping Durazo's .919 OPS for an extra year at $4.7M, thereby gaining one more year of Johnson's prime before he departs as a free agent. Durazo offset a walk rate drop from .19 to .11 by jacking his batting average 62 points despite a slightly lower contact rate. I unfortunately don't expect him to maintain that improvement, but the trends at least force us to consider the possibility of Durazo falling under a .750 OPS or surging towards 1.000 if he remembers to take an occasional walk. Given his overall development and the face he only enters his third season as an undisputed starter this spring I slightly lean towards the latter and recommend pushing well over $20 if necessary to secure Durazo's services, although discount that price a couple bucks if you can't keep crossovers.

3.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Frank Thomas		240	65	.271	18	49	0	53	D
CH White Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 36	B:R    T:R	8		8		22.1		22.1

I really want to recommend targeting Thomas due to his status as one of the most unheralded offensive stars in recent memory. He again posted All-Star numbers for a half-season before a busted ankle ended his year in July. Excellent plate discipline and power potential make him particularly valuable in sim leagues even with his uncomfortably low batting average. Unfortunately, we simply don't know if Thomas will return for Opening Day or miss the first several weeks of the season. At least most of you can monitor his progress in the spring before deciding how much to invest, but assuming he'll miss no less than another month due to various ailments, I simply can't see bidding much into the teens on the veteran slugger.

4.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Edgar Martinez		486	128	.263	12	63	1	45	D
SEA Mariners		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 41	B:R    T:R	7		7		-5.2		-5.2

Edgar bowed out at the right time, posting a respectable albeit unimpressive season as his skills declined precipitously. His departure also signals a new era for the franchise, centered on Ichiro, Beltre, Sexson, and Jeremy Reed. I wish Seattle hadn't kept him out of the lineup in the late 1980's since that moronic decision kept Edgar from accumulating an unquestionable Hall of Fame candidacy. Instead we simply need to evaluate him as the best DH in history, and I look forward to seeing the multitude of arguments on both sides of that debate when he gains HOF eligibility in five years.

5.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Troy Glaus		207	52	.251	18	42	2	47	D
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:R    T:R	6		7		9.8		9.8

Richie Sexson and Carlos Delgado both should tithe to Glaus for the next four years as the ex-Angel's contract with Arizona established the market for slugging cornermen with injury histories. He appeared set to challenge Vlad for AL MVP before another shoulder injury destroyed his summer. While his performance slipped after returning in September, Glaus appears positioned to rebound strongly. He'll spend the next few seasons in the best hitters' park in the league outside of Coors and enjoys a very comfortable lineup slot between Luis Gonzalez and Shawn Green. I hesitate to recommend pushing much over $20 due to his perennial BA problems, but if you need power, Glaus appears a good bet for a 30/100 season despite his health questions.

6.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Calvin Pickering		122	30	.246	7	26	0	21	D
KC Royals		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 28	B:L    T:L	1		2		3.1		3.1

Obliterating PCL pitching to post a .313/.447/.704 performance with a strong 68:85 BB:K in 297 AB for AAA Omaha finally earned Picking a starting job in the majors. He responded with a very respectable .838 OPS, the third best mark of any Kansas City player regardless of playing time other than Beltran and Sweeney. Hopefully the Royals will find a way to move Sweeney during the spring to open everyday lineup spots for both Pickering and the developing Ken Harvey, but my concern is that Pickering simply will rot on the bench. His 2.87 G-F also scares me even though he owns good patience and otherwise impressive power potential. Despite the 30/100 quantitative upside here, spending more than a few bucks right now or anything over single digits even if he finds regular at-bats is risky due to his weak BA. Treating Pickering as an endgame gamble offers you best the chance for a profit.

7.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
David Segui		59	20	.339	1	7	0	8	D
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 38	B:S    T:L	1		1		2		2

Segui's $28M/4 contact finally concluded in the fall after he cost Baltimore around $167K per run produced as he only accumulated 670 at-bats over the last four years. While he still could contribute somewhere in a limited role, his severe fragility and limited upside even might leave him unable to secure an NRI. Don't expect Segui to contribute to any fantasy team again.

8.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Brad Fullmer		258	60	.233	11	33	1	41	D
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 29	B:L    T:R	1		2		-4.6		-4.6

We expected a strong rebound season after his injury-plagued 2003; instead Fullmer performed so poorly that he remains unsigned with spring training only a couple weeks away. A career-worst 1.23 G-F sabotaged his otherwise respectable skills, particularly his strong plate discipline, and then a knee injury ended his season in July. Of course, if Fullmer avoids further health problems, he certainly possesses the skills necessary to rebound towards $30, making him an excellent late-round gamble if he signs in the American League and doesn't face severe competition for playing time at DH.

9.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jose Offerman		172	44	.256	2	22	1	22	D
MIN Twins		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	B:S    T:R	1		1		-0.4		-0.4

Signing a minor league deal with the Phillies should result in an Opening Day roster spot following Offerman's best season since 1999. However, he suffers from severe defensive limitations and can't contribute against southpaws, limiting his value even as a 25th man. I see little reason to employ him as anything more than short-term roster filler.

10.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Tim Salmon		186	47	.253	2	23	1	15	D
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 36	B:R    T:R	1		1		-8.5		-8.5

Shoulder and knee surgeries in the fall leave Salmon doubtful to contribute in 2005. Injuries crippled his performance last year, leading to his worst performance since his 1992 debut. Of course, he still owns strong skills and should return to Anaheim at some point, but given their loaded offense right now, the lack of available playing time even for a healthy Salmon prevents me from recommending him in any league.

11.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Midre Cummings		54	15	.278	2	7	1	10	D
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 32	B:L    T:R	1		0		1.1		1.1

Moving to the Orioles should result in another big league appearance for Cummings due to their fragile outfield. His strong .285/.408/.558 performance with an unexpected 86:107 BB:K in 414 AB for AAA Durham(IL) even suggests that the relatively young Cummings could reemerge as a useful bench player. Nothing here suggests you shouldn't consider him when looking for roster filler, and he even owns the skills to contribute another few bucks of positive value if he wins a spot in the majors.

12.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Andres Galarraga		10	3	.300	1	2	0	1	D
ANA Angels		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 43	B:R    T:R	-1		-1		0.4		0.4

Signing with Omar Minaya's Mets should insure that Galarraga, who turns 44 in June, hits the single home run he needs to reach 400 for his career. While he could retire immediately after that shot, the Big Cat could remain with New York indefinitely, providing veteran leadership in a previously fractious clubhouse and likely contributing in a limited pinch-hitting role. Of course, Galarraga doesn't merit any fantasy consideration and won't earn many Hall of Fame votes even with 400 homers, but you have to applaud his tenacity in returning to the majors following a second bout with cancer.

13.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ernie Young		4	2	.500	0	0	0	0	D
CLE Indians		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	B:R    T:R	-1		-1		0.8		0.8

Young unsurprisingly re-signed with Cleveland after compiling a .301/.368/.554 performance with 27 HR, 100 RBI, and a 39:104 BB:K in 442 AB for AAA Buffalo(IL). His continually strong AAA numbers make him a useful asset to any organization, but fantasy owners can dismiss him fairly easily considering he hasn't seen even a dozen big league at-bats in any year since 1998.

14.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Herbert Perry		134	30	.224	5	17	0	13	D
TEX Rangers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 35	B:R    T:R	-1		-1		-5.6		-5.6

The unsigned Perry posted his worst skills in years, but he still held decent numbers against southpaws and could contribute in a limited role. Of course, I also see no reason to roster him anywhere until he begins producing in regular big league playing time.

15.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Ellis Burks		33	6	.182	1	1	2	6	D
BOS Red Sox		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 40	B:R    T:R	-1		-1		-2.7		-2.7

Despite his apparent retirement, I'm not convinced that Burks won't follow the Luis Sojo path of spending the year coaching before returning to the majors to provide depth in September. However, after an injury-filled season left Burks with little chance of returning to contribute in any significant way, the eighteen-year career of the consistently productive veteran appears over. At least Burks finally earned a World Series ring by returning to his original franchise for his admittedly brief farewell tour.

16.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jack Cust		1	0	.000	0	0	0	0	D
BAL Orioles		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 25	B:L    T:R	-1		-2		-0.2		-0.2

Cust finally completed the journey many of us expected to see a few seasons ago by signing with Oakland this winter as a minor league free agent. Unfortunately, both Erubiel Durazo and Dan Johnson stand between Cust and an everyday job. Following his unimpressive .231/.352/.427 performance in 342 AB for AAA Ottawa(IL), he might not even deserve another shot this year. The good news is that Cust only turned 26 this month, so he still should enjoy a few seasons in some team's starting lineup. I just can't recommend him anywhere now since his weak contact rate will keep him from producing positive fantasy value even if he receives an opportunity sometime this summer.

17.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Eric Crozier		33	5	.152	2	4	0	5	D
TOR Blue Jays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 26	B:L    T:L	-2		-2		-1.8		-1.8

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Toronto for my comments on Crozier.

18.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Chris Shelton		46	9	.196	1	3	0	6	D
DET Tigers		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 24	B:R    T:R	-2		-2		-2.9		-2.9

Shelton completely skipped the two highest minor league levels as a Rule 5 pick and batting only a few times a month, yet he still compiled a .321 OBP, 3.96 #P/PA, and a .75 G-F. His .708 OPS against southpaws even suggests he deserved more playing time this year. When given an opportunity last fall in the Arizona Fall League, he compiled league-leading averages of a .404 BA, .470 OBP, and a .667 SLG, supported by a solid 15:19 BB:K in 114 AB. Now he'll head back to the minors, but with his skill set and offensive potential, he should return to Detroit for good no later than September. Consider him one of the best hitting prospects who won't open the year in the majors despite losing his rookie status. He qualifies as a strong sleeper, meriting consideration for a minor league draft pick in any AL league.

19.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Jonny Gomes		14	1	.071	0	1	0	0	D
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 23	B:R    T:R	-2		-3		-2.4		-2.4

Please refer to our Post-2004 Prospect Review: Tampa Bay for my comments on Gomes.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Fred McGriff		72	13	.181	2	7	0	7	D
TB Devil Rays		4x4		5x5		RAR		Adj. RAR
Age: 40	B:L    T:L	-3		-3		-5.5		-5.5

The odds of the aged slugger finding the playing time necessary to hit the 7 home runs he needs to reach 500 appear quite long. McGriff's best bet may be to beg for a shot with the Rockies and then produce sufficiently strong numbers at Colorado Springs to force a mid-season promotion. His declining power skills give me little hope that he'll reach the milestone anywhere else considering Tampa released him last July. Of course, probably deserves a spot in the Hall of Fame even after the last two seasons, but we can't blame the Crime Dog for wanting 500 homers; we just can't recommend McGriff to any fantasy participant to his negligible overall upside.

Minor League Free Agents and AAA/AA Designated Hitters

Baltimore Orioles
Minor League Free Agents:
Jack Cust is listed American League Designated Hitters above.

Cleveland Indians
Minor League Free Agents:
Ernie Young is listed American League Designated Hitters above.

Pittsburgh Pirates
Minor League Free Agents:
Manny Ravelo, 25, B:R, T:R.
12/47 for .255/.386/.298 with 0 HR, 4 RBI, 6 R, 4/10 SB%,
and a 9:13 BB:K for A+ Lynchburg(Car).
Appropriate 2004 Role: AA backup.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAA backup by 2008.
2004 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: None.

'04 NL Outfielder Week begins tomorrow, featuring National Leaguers with PDV over $20.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Hafner ranks with the best young hitters in the game, Durazo sits only slightly back of his fellow DH, Thomas and Glaus both should rebound after injury-plagued years, and Pickering could explode quantitatively if Kansas City finds playing time for the minor league veteran. Anyone in a reasonably deep league also should target Chris Shelton, who owns excellent batting skills and should emerge in a 1B/DH role for the Tigers no later than 2006.