Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Shortstops without Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.

20.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
John Valentin		208	50	0.240	3	30	0	18	S/1
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	0		0		1		1
2002 Age: 35	5x5:	0		0		1		1

Valentin left Boston after a decade of fairly respectable performances marred only by his inability to remain healthy the last few years. Unfortunately he was not a good complement to Rey Ordonez at short as Valentin also hits poorly against lefties. Most of his skills were fairly close to the marks he posted in 1998, the last year he batted more than 450 times, however there's no growth anywhere in his numbers, strongly suggesting that Valentin will continue to decline as he approaches 40. He's a competent backup with a little power potential and position flexibility, but he's not worth owning in most leagues given his lack of upside.

21.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Alex Gonzalez		151	34	.225	2	18	3	15	S
FLO Marlins		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		3		1
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-1		0		3		3

A dislocated left shoulder ended Gonzalez's season in mid-May, and Andy Fox's respectable performance as his replacement leaves Gonzalez without a starting job even if he's healthy for Spring Training. He simply does not contribute offensively, and even improving to a .08 walk rate, 3.67 #P/PA, and .63 G-F, all his best marks since at least his 1998 debut, doesn't mean he deserves another shot as a starter. Unless his plate discipline skills improve, he begins taking advantage of his power potential by driving the extra flyballs, or his contact rate heads back over .80, there's no reason even to consider him as a youngster with some upside. You should likely ignore Gonzalez in all of your drafts next spring.

22.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Cesar Izturis		439	102	.232	1	31	7	43	S
LA Dodgers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		11		7
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	1		1		11		5

If the Dodgers can't trade Mark Grudzielanek and won't sit him, a logical solution might involve moving Grudzielanek, Adrian Beltre, or Joe Thurston back to shortstop for a year to let Izturis spend another season at AAA. Toronto jumped him past AA to AAA in 2000 when he probably should have returned to A+ Dunedin, preventing him from spending the minor league time necessary to develop his skills. Now he simply doesn't know how to approach his at-bats, leading to a terrible 3.10 #P/PA thanks to his lack of patience. Izturis managed a .732 OPS against lefties but couldn't even crack .500 against right-handers, and he's far too young to move into any platoon. I didn't see the development I'd hoped to find in his second half stats, leaving me to suggest the following strategy in keeper leagues: if you have a reserve list where you can keep him out of your lineup, bring up Izturis for a buck very early in the draft. Be happy if you can grab this potential sleeper keeper and/or intriguing trade bait at a dollar, but let him go if anyone even says "$2".

23.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mike Mordecai		151	37	.245	0	11	2	19	S/3
MON/FLO		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		0		0
2002 Age: 34	5x5:	0		0		0

Mordecai posted a sub-.600 OPS when facing right-handers, during day games, in road games, on grass fields, in domes, and in the first half. Both his 3.49 #P/PA and 1.92 G-F were the worst marks of any full season in his career, and there's no indication he's developing any plate discipline. I'm not even comfortable recommending him as a reserve or roster filler given these marks, so ignore him in 2003 even if he continues to occupy the roster space of a more deserving AAAA veteran.

24.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Cody Ransom		3	2	.667	0	1	0	2	S
SF Giants		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of San Francisco Prospects for my comments on Ransom.

25.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Abraham O. Nunez		253	59	.233	2	15	3	28	S/2
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1				R
2002 Age: 26	5x5:	0		0				R

Nunez normally improves slightly in the second half, but he still didn't break a .700 OPS at any point. However his skills were above average in nearly every area, including some fairly decent marks of a .11 walk rate and 3.74 #P/PA. Unfortunately hitters without power generally should post a contact rate better than an .83 to merit a roster spot in fantasy leagues, and Nunez didn't even display his decent speed this year. Make sure the Pirates start letting him steal before adding him during the year.

26.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Wilson Delgado		20	4	.200	2	5	0	2	S
STL Cardinals		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-1		-1
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-2		-1

Delgado only managed a .260/.309/.381 line in 365 AAA at-bats, along with 7 homers, 35 RBI, 31 R, 2/7 SB%, and 23:54 BB:K. He neither offers decent plate discipline, power, nor speed, so there's no reason to roster him in the foreseeable future.

27.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Juan Castro		82	18	.220	2	11	0	5	S
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		-4
2002 Age: 30	5x5:	-2		-1		-3

We can attribute part of the Reds' fast start to Castro spending two months on the DL with a strained left hamstring at the beginning of the season. In eight major league seasons, Castro has never exceeded a .650 OPS. He's in an impatient hitter with no power potential or speed, and unlike even a Rey Ordonez, Castro won't accumulate sufficient quantitative stats to offset his BA. Signing Castro to a two-year extension in May of 2001 remains grounds for Jim Bowden's dismissal. Keep Castro away from your roster.

28.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Nick Punto		6	1	.167	0	0	0	0	S/2
PHI Phillies		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 24	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Philadelphia Prospects for my comments on Punto.

29.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Mendy Lopez		3	0	.000	0	0	0	0	S
PIT Pirates		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-2		-2

Lopez spent most of the year at AAA Nashville, displaying moderate power while compiling a .252/.309/.405 in 385 at-bats with 11 HR, 72 RBI, 60 R, 4/5 SB%, and a 34:99 BB:K. However we've seen no indication he'll ever receive sufficient major league playing time to display his power potential in the majors, leaving him without any roto value. Avoid Lopez unless he finds a regular backup role and you're desperate for power.

30.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Bill Hall		36	7	.194	1	5	0	3	S
MIL Brewers		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1
2002 Age: 22	5x5:	-2		-1

Please take a look at our recent Fantasy Review of Milwaukee Prospects for my comments on Hall.

31.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Joe McEwing		196	39	.199	3	26	4	22	S/1/O
NY Mets		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-2		-1		7		1
2002 Age: 29	5x5:	-2		-1		6		R

Little Mac's 4.09 #P/PA indicates he's still displaying excellent patience at the plate, however he lacks the strength to take advantage of the power potential generally indicated by a .93 G-F. No one with a .538 OPS deserves a regular job on a major league team, even one with the Mets' woeful offense. A drop in McEwing's contact rate from .80 to .74 has left him with negative value, and there's no reason for us to expect him to recover in 2003. Ignore him until further notice.

32.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Adam Everett		88	17	.193	0	4	3	11	S
HOU Astros		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2		2		R
2002 Age: 25	5x5:	-2		-1		3		R

Unfortunately, nothing in Everett's recent offensive history suggests he's ready to even contribute to AAA fantasy teams. Both Julio Lugo and Jose Vizcaino should see extended time at shortstop, and if Morgan Ensberg's given a chance at third, Houston also could give Geoff Blum some at-bats at short. A starting position player in Houston simply cannot keep his job with a .524 OPS while averaging about 3 RBI a month. Everett also showed little talent at New Orleans, posting a relatively empty .275/.331/.380 with 2 HR, 25 RBI, 51 R, 12/15 SB%, and 24:59 BB:K. By bidding on Everett you're gambling for a couple extra steals, but there's enough depth among the top 15 or so qualifiers at the position where there's no reason to risk this level of BA damage. His .14 walk rate and .78 contact rate in the majors indicate he might be able to manage a league average BA, but I wouldn't take any chances until he compiles a couple months of decent stats with the Astros.

33.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Luis M. Lopez		117	23	.197	2	10	1	11	S
MIL/BAL		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2
2002 Age: 32	5x5:	-3		-2

Lopez has never posted an OBP above .330 and now he's left the relatively friendly Milwaukee environment for parks normally better for pitchers. He displays little plate discipline, patience, or speed, and his meager power potential isn't worth this much potential qualitative damage, especially from someone who only managed a .529 OPS this year. Like the other half-dozen worst NL shortstops, I can't imagine a reason to roster Lopez given his current skill levels.

34.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Augie Ojeda		70	13	.186	0	4	1	4	S
CH Cubs		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:S    T:R	4x4:	-3		-2		-3
2002 Age: 27	5x5:	-3		-2		-2

Ojeda's displayed excellent plate discipline throughout his minor league career, including a 31:30 BB:K in 291 at-bats at AAA Iowa in 2002, however he only managed a .230/.318/.337 due to his almost complete lack of power. He has no value in the majors as long as he continues to fail to make solid contact, and the Cubs don't appear prepared to give him another shot in 2003 barring injury. As I don't expect him to see more than a week or two in the majors next year, there's no reason to consider him for your team during the upcoming season.

35.		AB	H	BA	HR	RBI	SB	R	Pos
Gookie Dawkins		48	6	.125	0	0	2	2	S
CIN Reds		DV		AV		Rotohelp		LABR/Tout
B:R    T:R	4x4:	-4		-2				R
2002 Age: 23	5x5:	-4		-2

I'm somewhat astounded that he couldn't manage a single RBI in almost 50 at-bats, and a .56 contact rate supports an extreme level of futility. At least he displayed good plate discipline at AA with a 25:28 BB:K in 155 at-bats, but he continued flailing at AAA Louisville with a 12:34 BB:K in 167 at-bats and .251/.302/.305. He might need two more years of AAA before he merits even a bench job, so Aaron Boone appears quite likely to slide to short when Larkin finally retires. Fortunately Ranier Olmedo needs another season at AA, so Dawkins will receive one more chance to develop his tools, however he probably could use a change of scenery before he gets too much older. If Olmedo hits decently for a couple months, expect to see Jim Bowden move Gookie for either pitching or younger prospects before the trading deadline, making him a horrible choice even in deep minor league drafts.

Shortstop week concludes tomorrow with NL prospects and suspects.

Today's Fantasy Rx: The only players I have almost any interest in acquiring from today's list are Cesar Izturis and Nick Punto, and only the latter appears ready to contribute in the majors. Given the lack of talent beyond the top half dozen or so NL shortstops, you should probably budget at least a few bucks here under any circumstances to insure you roster a reliable starter without much injury risk since both the Dollar Days' players and mid-season replacements possess little upside.