Best viewed in IE 4.0+
 
Rotohelp  
November
29th
2002
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
'02 Shortstop Week, Day Five
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

National League Shortstops with Single-Digit Positive Draft Value

Quick Key to the tables:
AB = At-bats.  H = Hits.  BA = Batting Average.  HR= Home Runs.
RBI = Runs Batted In.  SB = Stolen Bases.  R = Runs.  B = Bats.  T = Throws.
Pos = Position qualification based on 20 appearances or max. # of games in 2002.
2002 Age = Player's Age as of October 1, 2002.
4x4 = BA, HR, RBI, and SB in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
5x5 = BA, HR, RBI, SB, and R in 12-team, $260 leagues with 23-man rosters.
DV = Draft Value (The price a player earned under a 65/35 hitting/pitching split).
AV = Actual Value (The price a player earned under a 50/50 hitting/pitching split).
Rotohelp = 2002 Rotohelp Predicted Draft Value.
LABR/Tout = 2002 Expert League prices; LABR for 4x4. Tout Wars for 5x5.

Average league worst BA, ERA, and WHIP provided for 2002 leagues courtesy of Rototimes, based on data compiled from TQ Stats.

Players are ranked in order from the highest draft value in a 4x4 league to the lowest. As the majority of fantasy leagues allow you to keep anyone traded to the other league, all players are listed in the league where they began the season.


9.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Alex Cora25875.291528737S/2
LA DodgersDVAVRotohelpLABR/Tout
B:L    T:R4x4:86-3
2002 Age: 265x5:86-2

Cora demonstrated solid development in many areas, but the most intriguing was his .943 OPS at home. Dodger Stadium was the most extreme pitchers' park in the majors this year, and with only a minute improvement in his road OPS, I tend to believe Cora's success at home is largely due to irregularities present in comparatively small sample sizes. However he also managed a career high of both a .10 walk rate and .85 contact rate, and a .68 BB:K suggests he could maintain a BA above the league average. He saw 3.78 pitches per plate appearance, a decent increase from the last two years, and he also took advantage of his latent speed by posting a 1.61 G-F. Cora may be a product of Jim Tracy's knack at maximizing the usefulness of his players, but his skill development suggests he could continue posting $5+ roto values as long as he stays in his current role.


10.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Alex S. Gonzalez513127.2481861558S
CH CubsDVAVRotohelpLABR/Tout
B:R    T:R4x4:7689
2002 Age: 295x5:86913

While we're not pleased with the Cubs owing him over $5M in each of the next two seasons, he managed the third best overall RBI total of any NL shortstop, behind only Jose Hernandez and Edgar Renteria. I'm a little concerned that he generally hits better at night in domes, not exactly the best profile for someone playing half his games at Wrigley. The biggest problem in his skills was a .73 contact rate, the second worst mark of his career, which also largely negated the benefits of a career-best 1.18 G-F, a huge drop from a 1.52 G-F in 2001. If he maintains his power potential while boosting his contact rate up to his .76 career rate, Gonzalez's home runs, which have gradually increased from 15 in 2000 to 17 and then 18 this year, could shoot up into the upper 20s. You run a slight BA risk by drafting him, but few other players can guarantee you a top five finish in the power categories at their position for less than $10; he's a solid sleeper for 2003.


11.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Ramon Vazquez423116.274232750S/2/3
SD PadresDVAVRotohelpLABR/Tout
B:L    T:R4x4:7677
2002 Age: 265x5:8687

Steals and batting average account for over half of Vazquez's value, and thanks to the rise of the AL superstar shortstop, accepting only 2 homers and 32 RBI from any position without SB dominance seems unreasonable in the current roto environment. Fortunately, you might be able to take advantage of this misconception by other owners to grab the moderately valuable Vazquez at a discount. While he absolutely can't face lefties right now after managing only a .367 OPS vs. left-handers in 2002, a .11 walk rate, 3.88 #P/PA, and 2.17 G-F all indicate he's developing appropriate skills for batting against right-handers. I don't envision him earning much more than $10 in the foreseeable future, but as he'll qualify at three positions in most leagues and provide you with moderate help in steals, we'll try to roster him for a few bucks as a MIF or reserve.


12.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Julio Lugo32284.261835945S
HOU AstrosDVAVRotohelpLABR/Tout
B:R    T:R4x4:7678
2002 Age: 265x5:7679

A broken left forearm cost Lugo the last two months of the season and prevented him from reaching double-digit roto value. He wasn't playing badly prior to the injury, but his home-road split had grown to 260 points of OPS, suggesting his decent roto production is a direct result of his home park. At least Lugo's skills haven't deteriorated, having remained at roughly a .09 walk rate and .77 contact rate in each of his three seasons in the majors. His #P/PA jumped to 4.04 after two seasons of 3.82, indicating improving plate patience, however he hasn't developed any power as his G-F ratio bounced from 1.52 in 2000 to 1.20 last year and now to a 1.46 G-F in 2002. Combined with a general reduction in speed that leaves him unlikely to grab more than a dozen bags, there's no reason to expect any breakout from Lugo in 2003. He's more likely to post another season of value in the low teens.


13.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Rich Aurilia538138.2571561176S
SF GiantsDVAVRotohelpLABR/Tout
B:R    T:R4x4:751626
2002 Age: 315x5:971625

After a few years of relatively even splits, lefties held Aurilia to a .612 OPS, and he also struggled terribly on grass(.697 OPS) and outside(.694 OPS). Without holding a .945+ OPS indoors and on turf, Aurilia might have fallen below $5 a year after leading all NL shortstops at $32. He actually came back strong from spending only two weeks on the DL to recover from surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow, but Aurilia couldn't sustain even a moderate level of success throughout the season. A drop in contact rate from .87 to .83 likely accounted for much of the BA problem. However, if he can avoid just a few more strikeouts while taking advantage of the power development indicated by a drop from an .87 G-F to a .68, he might rise back into the mid-teens with a .275/20/80 season. Aurilia remains a decent roto target and should be available at a slight discount in many leagues.


14.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Barry Larkin507124.2457471372S
CIN RedsDVAVRotohelpLABR/Tout
B:R    T:R4x4:6548
2002 Age: 385x5:86511

Larkin's production basically didn't rebound at all despite a nice improvement in quantitative numbers due to his relatively good health; aside from a .964 OPS in 10 at-bats on turf, he didn't reach even a .690 OPS in any other major split. He suffered through nearly a half dozen minor injuries, and as he'll turn 39 in April, we can't expect him to avoid the DL in the last year of his three-year deal. Fortunately he's still posting some decent numbers, including a .77 BB:K, 76% SB success rate, and a 1.18 G-F, his second best mark since 1987. The problem is that Larkin's .09 walk rate and 3.43 #P/PA are his worst marks since 1989, indicating a failure to compensate for his declining batting skills with better plate discipline. This MVP is heading to the Hall of Fame in a few years after leading the Reds to one World Series' championship and into a new ballpark, but we can't expect him to break $5 again. Somewhat ironically, the perception of his failing health might allow him to slide into the late rounds in many leagues, and as long as your league has somewhat liberal transaction rules, you could find a helpful profit by grabbing him for a buck or two.


15.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Deivi Cruz514135.263747249S/2/3
SD PadresDVAVRotohelpLABR/Tout
B:R    T:R4x4:642
2002 Age: 295x5:6511

Cruz reportedly wants a multi-year deal, and while his stats have been affected by playing in two of the worst hitters' parks in baseball throughout his career, there's also no indication he'll emerge as an above average offensive player at any point, especially after gaining three years in agegate. The sad thing about his numbers this year is that his .04 walk rate was a career high, and after dropping from a 1.58 G-F in 1999 to a 1.27 the following season, he's jumped back up to 1.33 and 1.49 the last two years. Cruz's respectable .89 contact rate at least should keep his BA over the league average, so he should continue to earn about $5 a year as long as he continues to start. However, I don't expect he'll ever reach a much higher value.


16.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Jack Wilson527133.252447577S
PIT PiratesDVAVRotohelpLABR/Tout
B:R    T:R4x4:43-2
2002 Age: 245x5:6501

One of the quieter surprises of the season, Wilson earned about $5 despite almost no pre-season attention, earning a spot in most NL leagues despite a weak track record. We need to remember he already has close to two years of major league experience and will only turn 25 in December, making him a decent candidate to continue improving in 2003 even if he doesn't quite seem primed for a breakout. He slumped in the second half for the second straight year, however he also improved against all pitchers, simply mashing lefties for a .928 OPS. The best news is that all his skills developed, including his BB:K(.23 '01; .50 '02), walk rate(.04 '01; .07 '02), contact rate(.82 '01; .86 '02), #P/PA(3.59 '01; 3.77 '02), and G-F ratio(1.23 '01; 1.11 '02). I'll be shocked if he at least doesn't match this year's stats in 2003, and if he's available in your keeper league for only a couple bucks, you might find a nice SS bargain for the next few seasons.


17.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Juan Uribe566136.240649969S
COL RockiesDVAVRotohelpLABR/Tout
B:R    T:R4x4:332319
2002 Age: 235x5:542218

Uribe reached double-digit value in only 273 at-bats in 2001, so this disastrous performance likely torpedoed many fantasy teams. After a wondrous .926 April OPS, we were slightly concerned he was playing over his head, but we didn't expect him to barely break a .500 OPS the next four months. However a September rebound to an .825 OPS left him with an almost identical OPS in each half, making his .509 road OPS stand out even more from the rest of his splits. Uribe isn't even appearing a superior hitter to his predecessor at the moment, but at least the doubling of his walk rate from .03 to .06 gives us some hope for his future. A return to double-digit value seems reasonable if he remains the starter, however we can't envision bidding above $9 right now.


18.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Ramon E. Martinez18149.271425226S
SF GiantsDVAVRotohelpLABR/Tout
B:R    T:R4x4:3221
2002 Age: 295x5:332

Martinez seemed the Giants' de facto starting second baseman in 2003 until GM Brian Sabean bizarrely grabbed Neifi Perez on waivers. The only teams that didn't have the chance to pass on Perez were St. Louis, Arizona, and Atlanta, and none of them was going to add an expensive middle infielder. So unless San Francisco non-tenders Perez and doesn't obtain a different, more expensive replacement for the apparently departing Jeff Kent, Martinez should spend another season on the bench, an appropriate role given his questionable skill level. A career-best .72 G-F suggests he could reach double-digit homers in a full-time role, however he struggled when given more than 200 at-bats in 2001. While a .737 career OPS in the pitchers' haven in San Francisco indicates Martinez could emerge as a competent starting middle infielder, I just don't see any particular skill potential that warrants a larger role. His likely eligibility for arbitration negates some of his value for the Giants, and even if he unexpectedly appears headed for 500 at-bats as of your draft, I certainly would prefer to only draft him as a reserve.


19.ABHBAHRRBISBRPos
Rey Ordonez460117.254142253S
NY MetsDVAVRotohelpLABR/Tout
B:R    T:R4x4:22-2
2002 Age: 315x5:33-1R

St. Rey's ridiculously ill-advised contract finally expires at the end of 2003, freeing the Mets of one of the most costly burdens on any team in recent years. He absolutely can't hit lefties, as he only managed a .463 OPS and 3 RBI in 119 at-bats; of course his .669 OPS against righties also isn't acceptable. With a walk rate that dropped from .07 to .05 this year and an average 2.18 G-F ratio over the last two years, I see no potential for improvement in his plate discipline or power at any point, rendering him essentially useless even if traded to Colorado. He should only spend about a third of next year active in most leagues unless several NL shortstops take extended DL trips.


I'll review the remainder of NL shortstops tomorrow.


Today's Fantasy Rx: You'll probably find better bargains by price shopping on the net than you will by spending all morning out in stores today, so definitely consider spending most of the day resting, especially if you're exhausted from a couple days of cooking and cleaning.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
Advertise on
Rotohelp
All content ©2001-18 Rotohelp, Inc. All rights reserved. PO Box 72054 Roselle, IL 60172.
Please send your comments, suggestions, and complaints to: admin@rotohelp.com.