Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer here to see the last set of changes made to the rating system.

Forty-five National Leaguers earned a 1 for their performance through a week ago. Vladimir Nunez, Paul Quantrill, Al Leiter, Scott Strickland, and Brandon Villafuerte joined the list this week while no one departed, leaving us with fifty pitchers displaying solid skills.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the eighteenth set of 2002 in-season NL LPR ratings, which include all games played through September 12th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Randy Johnson(55354)

Robb Nen

123
abcxy - Kerry Wood(45354)

Octavio Dotel
Jason Isringhausen
Billy Wagner

124
abcxyz - Al Leiter(55035)

Leiter's back up here looking fully prepared to remain effective through the end of 2002 and into 2003.

134
Paul Shuey

234
abxy - Brian Lawrence(23443)

Juan Cruz(41005)
Jeremy Fikac
Felix Rodriguez
Tim Spooneybarger

12
abcxyz- Curt Schilling(54445)
abxyz - Randy Wolf(54545)
abxy - Jason Schmidt(55455)
abx - Roy Oswalt(35535)

Vladimir Nunez
Mike Remlinger
John Smoltz

We continue to favor Nunez over Looper but recognize that Nunez contributes more to the Marlins in middle relief than he could as the designated closer.

13
Joey Eischen
Byung-Hyun Kim
Paul Quantrill
Steve Reed
Luis Vizcaino
Jay Witasick

Quantrill's looking solid again, leaving LA with four quality right-handed relievers on their nicely balanced pitching staff.

14
Trevor Hoffman
Scott Strickland
Gabe White
Scott Williamson

Strickland hasn't been here in a while, but I'm glad he's finishing the year on a high note since he'll either be prime trade bait as the Mets look to shed contracts or he might wind up the new closer as every offseason brings new Benitez rumors.

23
by - Brad Penny(31540)

Carlos Zambrano(04340)
Nick Neugebauer(45100)
Kyle Farnsworth
Jeff Fassero
Josias Manzanillo
Jose Mesa

24
bcxyz - Bartolo Colon(43535)
z - Britt Reames(05503)

Justin Speier

34
bcxyz - Greg Maddux(23351)
cyz - Kevin Brown(54203)

Jose Acevedo(51030)
Chad Fox
Mike Holtz
Dave Veres

1
acxyz - Woody Williams(54054)
acxyz - Kevin Millwood(54343)
axyz - A.J. Burnett(55355)
bcyz - Wade Miller(55544)
axz - Chuck Finley(55504)
bxy - Matt Morris(53523)
ax - Odalis Perez(53452)
xz - Matt Clement(43550)

Finley rebounded nicely from a disaster, leaving all these pitchers as excellent plays on any staff.

Mike Crudale(0)
Joe Borowski
Eric Gagne
Mark Guthrie
Chris Hammond
Darren Holmes
Todd Jones
Ray King
Mike Koplove
Matt Mantei
Guillermo Mota
Scott Sauerbeck
Scott Stewart
Brandon Villafuerte
Mike Williams
Tim Worrell

Villafuerte continues to establish himself as a solid setup option for the Padres, placing him in line for a potentially helpful 2003. Sauerbeck and the Braves should cruise for the rest of the year, and consider Todd Jones for the last week of the season when the Rockies hit the road.

2

IN MEMORIAM: bcxyz - Darryl Kile(43004)

abxyz - Javier Vazquez(01235)
bxy - Russ Ortiz(33535)
by - Tony Armas, Jr.(0045)

Nelson Cruz(05040)
Jose Jimenez
Steve Kline
Kerry Ligtenberg
Vladimir Nunez
Scott Sullivan
Dave Weathers

3
bxyz - Jon Lieber(44325)
by - Ruben Quevedo(14002)

Jason Bere(55500)
Tim Redding(04320)
Jose Cabrera(23033)
Ryan Jensen(33000)
Pedro Borbon
Giovanni Carrara
Mike Matthews
Dan Plesac
Paul Quantrill

Definitely avoid running Jensen under almost any circumstance as he looks ready to cede his rotation spot to one of the Giants' top prospects, likely Ainsworth.

4
b - Bud Smith(02040)
y - Ben Sheets(15444)

Kris Benson(44414)
Doug Brocail
Vic Darensbourg
John Franco
Aaron Fultz
Greg Swindell

Sheets and Benson both are compiling strong finishes, further enhancing their worth both for the last couple weeks and in 2003.

a
bcxy - Hideo Nomo(55544)
xy - Pedro Astacio(01440)
x - Mark Prior(55505)
x - Joe Roa(34434)
x - Oliver Perez(34443)
y - Kevin Jarvis(44400)
Jake Peavy(05550)

Nomo remains as dominant as almost any pitcher in the game, and aside from Roa's non-existent dominance, he's also a solid play. Perez and Peavy should join Lawrence at the top of the Padres' 2003 rotation, and Peavy in particular could wind up superior even to a young stud like Prior over the next year or two.

b
y - Steve Trachsel(34430)
y - John Thomson(20451)
Terry Adams(33001)

c
xyz - Ryan Dempster(23402)
xz - Glendon Rusch(22543)
xz - Robert Person(33320)
Rick Ankiel

Rebuilding teams must take advantage of any Dempster drops, since if he stays healthy, I expect a strong rebound.

x
yz - Livan Hernandez(53245)
yz - Tom Glavine(33424)
y - Nelson Figueroa(03222)
z - Jamey Wright(34330)
Brett Tomko(40443)
Vicente Padilla(54313)
Kip Wells(22515)
Jimmy Haynes(20542)
Kazuhisa Ishii(43040)
Tomo Ohka(35303)
Miguel Batista(24033)
Bobby J. Jones(43230)
Masato Yoshii(42202)
Damian Moss(12340)
Andy Ashby(33202)
Omar Daal(33300)
Tejera, Meadows, and Rueter all dropped off the rankings, leaving this group at only sixteen pitchers for the first time in quite a few weeks. Most of these guys also suffer from weak trends, leaving Hernandez, Glavine, Tomko, Padilla, Wells, and perhaps Haynes or Ohka in some leagues as pitchers we're comfortable deploying. Moss' status as top NL rookie pitcher appears in jeopardy unless he quickly rebounds with a couple of strong outings.

y
z - Denny Neagle(14531)
z - Elmer Dessens(01434)
z - Shane Reynolds(42300)
Brandon Duckworth(00530)
Shawn Chacon(40032)
Jason Marquis(04020)
Brian Tollberg(32320)
Sean Lowe(0)
Darren Dreifort

While Dessens seems as acceptable as ever, no one else here belongs in a contenders' rotation.

z
Rick Helling(54401)
Mike Hampton(34132)
Andy Benes(52341)
Julian Tavarez(44311)
Carl Pavano(00043)
Shawn Estes(24100)
Jeff D'Amico(22301)
Albie Lopez(0230)
Bruce Chen(03200)
Manny Aybar

Aside from Helling and still solid Benes, Aybar's shown the most of the remaining pitchers in his brief work since his call-up. Tavarez, Pavano, and Estes should remain benched.

NL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear here include Kurt Ainsworth(240), Antonio Alfonseca, Armando Benitez, Brian Boehringer, Rheal Cormier, Will Cunnane, Mike Fetters, Tom Gordon, Matt Herges, Carlos Hernandez(50431), Trey Hodges, Luke Hudson, Graeme Lloyd, Braden Looper, Jason Middlebrook(004), Blaine Neal, John Patterson(550), Kirk Rueter(43440), Kirk Saarloos(05420), Carlos Silva, Jason Simontacchi(35324), and Ricky Stone. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Brian Anderson(14430), Jimmy Anderson(22320), Bronson Arroyo(0243), Mike Bacsik(52310), Josh Beckett(43030), Joe Beimel(30522), Alan Benes(3305), Mike Bynum(343), Dave Coggin(04000), Clay Condrey(3), Aaron Cook(2354), Mike DeJean, Ben Diggins(05), Jayson Durocher, Adam Eaton(003), Josh Fogg(31404), Wayne Franklin(2), Danny Graves(0), Kevin Gryboski, Luther Hackman(03004), Joey Hamilton(34020), Jason Jennings(44041), Brian Meadows(43340), Dave Mlicki(30300), Brian Moehler(24400), Pete Munro(032410), Brett Myers(12214), Chris Reitsma(03030), John Riedling, Jeriome Robertson(0), Nate Robertson(0), Dan Smith, Steve Smyth(50000), Garrett Stephenson(33000), Dennis Tankersley(40001), Michael Tejera(44010), Mike Timlin, Salmon Torres(40), Ron Villone(03043), and Justin Wayne(03).

Today's Fantasy Rx: From the two paragraphs of recommendations at the bottom, the best keeper starters are Ainsworth, Carlos Hernandez, Trey Hodges, Middlebrook, John Patterson, and Kirk Saarloos. While not likely effective at the moment, I also recommend Beckett, Eaton, Fogg, Brett Myers, Tankersley, and Michael Tejera for teams now exclusively rebuilding.