Today's Fantasy Rx

Twenty-six pitchers earned a 1 for their performance this season as of last week. Jeff Weaver and Joel Pineiro joined the list this week while Antonio Osuna(H/9) departed, leaving us with twenty-seven pitchers displaying solid skills.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the eighteenth set of 2002 in-season AL LPR ratings, which include all games played through September 11th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Pedro Martinez(54554)

Keith Foulke
Arthur Rhodes
Mariano Rivera

123
abcxyz - Roger Clemens(45255)
abxy - Roy Halladay(31323)
bxyz - Kevin Appier(43553)

Troy Percival

124
Chad Bradford

134
Billy Koch
Cliff Politte

234
Keith Foulke's promotion again leaves this space vacant.

12
bxy - Mark Mulder(43535)
bx - Joel Pineiro(54355)

Ricardo Rincon
Kaz Sasaki

I'm mildly surprised that Osuna fell off this section again, but he easily could return by the end of the year.

13
abxy - Tim Wakefield(54454)

Buddy Groom
Steve Karsay

If Boston really will use Wakefield as a starter all next year, we might even start with him on our challenge teams. I strongly recommend you use him if possible in every start for the rest of the year, and consider him even in shallow mixed leagues.

23
abcxyz - Mike Mussina(43535)
abxyz - Tim Hudson(45444)
bcxyz - Chan Ho Park(04543)
x - Danys Baez(22335)

Matt Ginter

Eddie Guardado

24
cx - Paul Wilson(33200)

Dan Miceli
Ugueth Urbina
Todd Van Poppel

34
xy - Joe Kennedy(33022)

Randy Choate
Rich Garces
Bob Howry
David Riske
Mike Stanton

1
axy - Jeff Weaver(24344)
xyz - Jarrod Washburn(22433)
a - Johan Santana(54454)

I keep hyping Jeff Weaver, and his skill keep improving, so I'll continue recommending him, especially for rebuilding teams. Don't be surprised if he wins twenty games next year and receives a couple of Cy Young votes, even though I don't expect he'll deserve them.

Francisco Cordero
Brendan Donnelly
Alan Embree
LaTroy Hawkins
Damaso Marte
J.C. Romero

2
abcxyz - Barry Zito(35335)
xy - Freddy Garcia(22334)
b - Rolando Arrojo(50200)
x - C.C. Sabathia(34444)
x - Victor Zambrano(54222)
z - Kelvim Escobar

Pineiro's promotion leaves Sabathia as the best pitcher here after Zito. I still don't believe he's ready to reach $20 value next season as he's only posted three 5 scores all year, but this run of dominant scores severely increases my expectations of his potential in the near future.

Matt Anderson
Lorzeno Barcelo
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Antonio Osuna
Lou Pote
B.J. Ryan
Rudy Seanez

3
bxy - John Burkett(32034)
yz - Rick Reed(55544)
y - Andy Pettitte(54344)

Gary Glover(03200)
Al Levine
Jim Mecir
Jeff Nelson
Travis Phelps
John Rocker
Bob Wickman
Kelly Wunsch

4
ax - Derek Lowe(23344)
y - Luke Prokopec(02542)

Jerrod Riggan

a
xyz - Jamie Moyer(45530)
xz - Orlando Hernandez(34454)
John Stephens(55314)

Weaver jumped up as Buehrle and Milton slipped to cut this group of acceptable starters in half. Fortunately each of the three remaining starters looks fine right now, so feel free to deploy them against any opponent.

b
xy - Cory Lidle(53541)
Brandon Lyon(20300)
Matt Wise

c
x - David Wells(13544)
x - Mark Redman(34200)
Sterling Hitchcock(00)

Redman's effectively finished for roto purposes, leaving Wells as the sole acceptable deployment from this group.

x
yz - Ramon Ortiz(52453)
yz - Aaron Sele(25342)
y - Mark Buehrle(53413)
y - Paul Byrd(44201)
y - Tanyon Sturtze(42332)
y - Dave Burba(20324)
z - Sidney Ponson(44434)
z - Frank Castillo(40044)
Only Byrd and Burba look too problematic to deploy, although we'd exercise caution with Sturtze given his persistent qualitative problems.

Kyle Lohse(35243)
Runelvys Hernandez(43334)
Ismael Valdes(34224)
Casey Fossum(34035)
Ryan Rupe(42500)
Rodrigo Lopez(34333)
John Lackey(32350)
Ricardo Rodriguez(24033)

Sedlacek drops off as Lohse and Rodriguez establish themselves as the new bookends of this group of mostly rookies. I don't trust Rodriguez, but I see no reason not to run the six healthy pitchers.

y
z - Brad Radke(22344)
z - Kenny Rogers(41244)
z - Todd Ritchie(03302)
z - Pat Hentgen

Jon Garland(01542)
Joe Mays(40213)
Esteban Loiaza(04213)
Erik Hiljus(40200)
Scott Schoeneweis(32030)
Josh Towers(121)
Jeff Suppan(12103)
Doug Davis(12120)
Paul Abbott(02300)
Rick Bauer(2)

Radke and Rogers are good, Garland and Mays are risky, and of the remaining pitchers here even healthy and in the majors, you probably shouldn't risk deploying any of them.

z
Jim Parque(2040)
Steve Parris(40010)
Jason Johnson(33303)
Blake Stein(02)

AL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Juan Acevedo, Mickey Callaway(454), Aaron Harang(03320), Travis Harper(44300), Oscar Henriquez, Roberto Hernandez, Jorge Julio, Colby Lewis(3), Ted Lilly(50520), Ramiro Mendoza, Justin Miller(02455), and Esteban Yan. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Jeremy Affeldt(33050), Miguel Asencio(12432), James Baldwin(41500), Joaquin Benoit(05300), Adam Bernero(30020), Rocky Biddle(0003), Sean Douglass(00321), Travis Driskill(43110), Scott Erickson(30000), Tony Fiore(22), Ryan Franklin(11352), Mark Hendrickson(2), Dustin Hermanson(3), Danny Kolb, Shane Loux(0), Mike Maroth(33214), Darrell May(00223), Terry Mulholland(43), Aaron Myette(30000), Chuck Nagy(00500), Brian Powell(00323), Jay Powell, Dennys Reyes(0103), Juan Rincon(400), Willis Roberts, Shawn Sedlacek(05320), Scot Shields, Mike Smith(00000), Jorge Sosa(43113), Steve Sparks(24020), Jeff Tam, Corey Thurman(0), Andy Van Hekken(33), Pete Walker(34031), Ben Weber, Jake Westbrook(5400), Mark Wohlers, Danny Wright(25342), and Jaret Wright(00030).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Of everyone that I recommend you don't deploy right now, only Benoit, Sedlacek, Van Hekken, and perhaps Wright are likely to interest me next spring. Rebuilding teams should see if any of these four pitchers are available cheaply, although any starter or top setup man higher on the list offers more immediate upside, including Colby Lewis and Justin Miller.