Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer here to see the last set of changes made to the rating system.

Forty-three National Leaguers earned a 1 for their performance through a week ago. Mike Williams joined the list this week while Mike Koplove(K/9), Mike Myers(H/9), and Kent Mercker(K:BB, HR/9, H/9) departed, leaving us with forty-one pitchers displaying solid skills.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the fifteenth set of 2002 in-season NL LPR ratings, which include all games played through August 22nd. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
Robb Nen

123
abcxy - Kerry Wood(45524)

Octavio Dotel
Jason Isringhausen

124
abcxyz - Al Leiter(53345)

Justin Speier

134
Paul Shuey

234
abcxyz - Randy Johnson(55555)
abxy - Brian Lawrence(45342)

Juan Cruz(41005)
Jeremy Fikac
Felix Rodriguez
Tim Spooneybarger

12
abcxyz- Curt Schilling(55555)
abx - Roy Oswalt(43435)
aby - Jason Schmidt(55545)

Schmidt's as dominant as any starter in the league save Randy and Schilling; go get him anywhere you need pitching help.

Steve Kline
Mike Remlinger
John Smoltz

13
Joey Eischen
Byung-Hyun Kim
Steve Reed
Luis Vizcaino
Jay Witasick

14
Trevor Hoffman
Gabe White
Scott Williamson

23
by - Brad Penny(03553)

Carlos Zambrano(40450)
Nick Neugebauer(42451)
Kyle Farnsworth
Jeff Fassero
Josias Manzanillo
Jose Mesa
Billy Wagner

24
bcxyz - Bartolo Colon(53444)
z - Britt Reames(05503)

Colon's on a list of pitchers who may be DL-bound at some point in the next year due to their dropping dominance rate indicating a physical problem; be wary when considering him in keeper leagues.

34
bcxyz - Greg Maddux(45442)
acyz - Kevin Brown(45420)

We're watching Brown's return very closely as he's a key to the pending two weeks of playoffs in our H2H points league. I suspect he'll see a few starts as he's still the Dodgers' best starter when healthy, but anyone with qualitative category worries should be careful in deploying him.

Jose Acevedo(51030)
Chad Fox
Mike Holtz
Dave Veres

1
acxyz - Kevin Millwood(54355)
abxy - Matt Morris(04535)
axyz - A.J. Burnett(55355)
axy - Pedro Astacio(54520)
ax - Odalis Perez(25325)
xz - Matt Clement(35424)

Jeff Torborg should be fired for either incompetence or lying based on his usage of A.J. Burnett and comments on his surprise at the injury. Hopefully you remembered our concerns and planned for a potential breakdown, but if you're desperate for a replacement, Clement seems like an excellent and still underrated trade target. Millwood's upside may be higher, although he should cost more in most leagues.

Mike Crudale(0)
Joe Borowski
Eric Gagne
Mark Guthrie
Darren Holmes
Todd Jones
Ray King
Guillermo Mota
Blaine Neal
Scott Sauerbeck
Scott Stewart
Mike Williams
Tim Worrell

I'm somewhat relieved to see Kent Mercker gone as he just didn't seem to fit with the other pitchers here; Koplove and Myers both should be back before the year ends. We're also pleased with Mike Williams' return as a couple recent poor outings had started troubling us with regards to his skill level; Williams appears as strong as at any point of the year, and while Pittsburgh's struggles limit his opps, he'll succeed when given the chance.

2

IN MEMORIAM: bcxyz - Darryl Kile(43004)

abxyz - Randy Wolf(54154)
abxyz - Javier Vazquez(40450)
bxy - Russ Ortiz(05433)
bxy - Tony Armas, Jr.(20400)

Nelson Cruz(05040)
Jose Jimenez
Kerry Ligtenberg
Vladimir Nunez
Scott Sullivan
Dave Weathers

Wolf is continuing to cruise, making him a great target for contenders even though I worry about his long-term durability.

3
bxyz - Jon Lieber(44325)
by - Ruben Quevedo(14002)

Jason Bere(45550)
Ryan Jensen(14203)
Tim Redding(04320)
Jose Cabrera(22303)
Pedro Borbon
Giovanni Carrara
Mike Matthews
Dan Plesac
Paul Quantrill

4
b - Bud Smith(02040)
y - Ben Sheets(31551)

Kris Benson(32324)
Doug Brocail
Vic Darensbourg
John Franco
Aaron Fultz
Scott Strickland
Greg Swindell

Benson's starting to regain his former promise, increasing our interest in him in keeper leagues.

a
cxyz - Woody Williams(44554)
xz - Chuck Finley(40555)
x - Mark Prior(35550)
x - Oliver Perez(55344)
y - Kevin Jarvis(44400)
Jake Peavy(03440)

As per my repeated comments when the Cardinals acquired him, Finley's dominated in six of his seven starts since joining the NL; acquire him if he's somehow available in your league. Now's also a good time to add Perez as he should be off the DL in the near future.

b
cxy - Hideo Nomo(34355)
cyz - Wade Miller(24345)
y - Steve Trachsel(41403)
y - John Thomson(23204)
Terry Adams(33001)

Nomo's suddenly looking dominant again, slightly increasing our interest in him despite the overall lower strikeout rate.

c
xyz - Ryan Dempster(30432)
xz - Glendon Rusch(42332)
xz - Robert Person(33320)
Rick Ankiel

x
yz - Livan Hernandez(23335)
yz - Tom Glavine(23343)
z - Rick Helling(00455)
z - Jamey Wright(23234)

Neagle unsurprisingly falls to a lower level, leaving only Helling as a particularly strong option right now.

Vicente Padilla(34255)
Omar Daal(45433)
Masato Yoshii(34434)
Michael Tejera(35144)
Brett Tomko(04044)
Andy Ashby(34533)
Miguel Batista(43352)
Kip Wells(52422)
Joe Roa(04343)
Brian Meadows(34043)
Mike Bacsik(24052)
Damian Moss(44131)
Kirk Rueter(41114)
Bobby J. Jones(34323)
Kazuhisa Ishii(02343)
Tomo Ohka(03153)
Denny Stark(33331)
Josh Fogg(22231)
Jimmy Haynes(21220)

The amazingly consistent Masato Yoshii joins this group as one of four pitchers jumping to the top of the list. Padilla, Daal, Yoshii, Tejera, and Tomko all look like fairly strong options right now, and we also like Ashby, Batistai, Wells, and Roa. We're even experimenting with Brian Meadows in our points' league since even half-decent doubles can really help in that league.

y
z - Elmer Dessens(34430)
z - Denny Neagle(05531)
z - Shane Reynolds(42300)
Brandon Duckworth(45040)
Jason Marquis(43040)
Shawn Chacon(40032)
Brian Tollberg(32320)
Nelson Figueroa(30032)
Sean Lowe(0)
Darren Dreifort

All these pitchers seem to risky for solid contenders to deploy; Dessens, Duckworth, and Marquis are marginal gambles if you can risk qualitative damage.

z
Andy Benes(35335)
Shawn Estes(53502)
Julian Tavarez(23324)
Mike Hampton(21343)
Carl Pavano(03400)
Jeff D'Amico(22301)
Albie Lopez(0230)
Bruce Chen(03200)
Manny Aybar

I can't believe Benes looks like a good play after the last two years, but his skills are solid since returning and we'd be comfortable using him against most opponents.

NL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear here include Antonio Alfonseca, Armando Benitez, Brian Boehringer, Mike Bynum(34), Rheal Cormier, Will Cunnane, Mike Fetters, Tom Gordon, Danny Graves, Matt Herges, Carlos Hernandez(20005), Mike Koplove, Graeme Lloyd, Braden Looper, Matt Mantei, Kirk Saarloos(23340), Carlos Silva, Jason Simontacchi(03353), Ricky Stone, and Brandon Villafuerte. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Brian Anderson(54414), Jimmy Anderson(22320), Josh Beckett(43030), Joe Beimel(30522), Dave Coggin(02040), Mike DeJean, Jayson Durocher, Kevin Gryboski, Luther Hackman(0030), Joey Hamilton(34020), Chris Hammond, Jason Jennings(34434), Dave Mlicki(30300), Brian Moehler(12440), Pete Munro(25303), Brett Myers(02231), Jimmy Osting(00), Chris Reitsma(2030), John Riedling, Dan Smith, Steve Smyth(0350), Gene Stechschulte, Dennis Tankersley(40001), Mike Timlin, and Ron Villone(03043).

Today's Fantasy Rx: We expect to see a few more trades in the final days before the August 31st deadline when any other newly-acquired players wouldn't be eligible for the playoff roster. While we doubt any top prospects will change teams, any shifting of role players could give at-bats to journeymen bench warmers who could easily provide a boost for a week or two in specific categories. Monitor lineups immediately after trades to determine potential changes.