Today's Fantasy Rx

As we haven't had time to update our database for the LPR modification, I likely won't be able to bring you any ABC or XYZ ratings for another couple of weeks, although I'll certainly comment here when I make the change.

Twenty-eight pitchers earned a 1 for their performance this season as of a week ago. No one joined the list this week while Casey Fossum(H/9), Keith Foulke(HR/9), and Oscar Henriquez(K:BB) departed, leaving us with twenty-five pitchers displaying solid skills.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the fifteenth set of 2002 in-season AL LPR ratings, which include all games played through August 21st. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Pedro Martinez(55554)

Arthur Rhodes
Mariano Rivera

Foulke falls again, although we still think he'll strongly rebound next season.

123
abcxyz - Roger Clemens(24524)
abxy - Roy Halladay(45431)

Eddie Guardado
Troy Percival

We're less than pleased about Halladay's Wednesday disaster right after we purchased him in DC; however despite burnout warnings, we still believe he's a great target for any team due to his fantastic skills.

124
Chad Bradford

134
Billy Koch
Cliff Politte

234
Keith Foulke

He could rack three saves in one of these weeks, so if he's somehow available in your league, grab him now.

12
bxy - Mark Mulder(25334)

Ricardo Rincon
Kaz Sasaki

13
abxy- Tim Wakefield(44254)

Buddy Groom
Steve Karsay

23
abcxyz - Mike Mussina(40344)
abxyz - Tim Hudson(43544)
bcxyz - Chan Ho Park(42320)
bxyz - Kevin Appier(44234)
x - Danys Baez(02233)

Hudson's current PQS excellence allows us to overlook his falling dominance, so while he's good for now, perhaps he could join Mulder in preceding Zito to the DL.

Matt Ginter

24
cx - Paul Wilson(43433)

Dan Miceli
Ugueth Urbina
Todd Van Poppel

34
xy - Joe Kennedy(43233)

Randy Choate
Rich Garces
Bob Howry
David Riske
Mike Stanton

1
xyz - Jarrod Washburn(34332)
a - Johan Santana(00544)

Francisco Cordero
Brendan Donnelly
Alan Embree
LaTroy Hawkins
Jorge Julio
Damaso Marte
J.C. Romero

Fossum and Henriquez fall, although Santana looks back on track in his attack to sack those who lack jacks. Don King is in the house.

2
abcxyz - Barry Zito(33453)
bx - Joel Pineiero(32235)
xy - Freddy Garcia(53222)
b - Rolando Arrojo(50200)
x - C.C. Sabathia(22543)
z - Kelvim Escobar

Consider the weakening Freddy Garcia a high risk play for the rest of the year.

Victor Zambrano(5254)
Matt Anderson
Lorzeno Barcelo
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Antonio Osuna
Lou Pote
B.J. Ryan
Rudy Seanez

Zambrano's early dominance is quite surprising, but he's shown great skills in the past and could succeed as a starter. Rebuilding teams might find a gem here.
3
bxy - John Burkett(50403)
yz - Rick Reed(15345)
y - Andy Pettitte(54354)

Gary Glover(44140)
Al Levine
Jim Mecir
Jeff Nelson
Travis Phelps
John Rocker
Bob Wickman
Kelly Wunsch

4
ax - Derek Lowe(34523)
y - Luke Prokopec(02542)

Jerrod Riggan

a
xyz - Jamie Moyer(54424)
xy - Mark Buehrle(42345)
x - John Lackey(43554)
y - Eric Milton(54555)

Lackey's continued to amaze, and he'll be a valuable roto property as long as Anaheim doesn't burn him out after heavy overwork over the past couple years. Buehrle's move up here is a welcome development, but we'd like to see his strikeouts increase and his innings reduced to limit any injury risk.

b
y - Cory Lidle(35345)
Brandon Lyon(20300)
Matt Wise

Lidle finally seems back to his form from last season, making him a great pick-up in any league.

c
x - Mark Redman(45405)
x - David Wells(44031)
Sterling Hitchcock(00)

x
yz - Aaron Sele(25342)
yz - Ramon Ortiz(30315)
y - Paul Byrd(44244)
y - Jeff Weaver(44243)
y - Tanyon Sturtze(12334)
y - Jeff Suppan(34312)
z - Sidney Ponson(23444)
z - Orlando Hernandez(53023)
z - Frank Castillo(32400)
Ismael Valdes(43534)
Casey Fossum(35334)
Runelvys Hernandez(35234)
Rodrigo Lopez(51334)
Joaquin Benoit(23405)
Ryan Rupe(42500)
Shawn Sedlacek(02053)

Sele sneaks up the list right when his season likely ends. Weaver may be the most intriguing pitcher here to own after Byrd, and if Hernandez continues flailing, Ducky might flip spots with Weaver. Most of the healthy ax pitchers look like excellent plays, particularly Valdes, Fossum, Hernandez, and Lopez.

y
z - Brad Radke(05442)
z - Kenny Rogers(02434)
z - Todd Ritchie(03302)
z - Pat Hentgen

Jon Garland(04540)
Joe Mays(32440)
Dave Burba(43203)
Esteban Loiaza(33430)
Erik Hiljus(40200)
Scott Schoeneweis(32030)
Josh Towers(121)
Doug Davis(12120)
Paul Abbott(02300)
Rick Bauer

While certain pitchers display more inconsistency than Jon Garland, he'll remain relatively unusable until he stops posting disasters in a plurality of his starts. Radke, Rogers, and Mays look relatively safe, and you should probably bench everyone else unless IP desperation forces you to use Loiaza.

z
Jason Johnson(12453)
Steve Parris(20340)
Blake Stein(02)
Jim Parque

Rebuilding teams should target Johnson as someone with relatively acceptable skills and some consistency who could continue improving next year.

AL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear above include Juan Acevedo, Travis Driskill(05431), Aaron Harang(20332), Travis Harper(0443), Oscar Henriquez, Roberto Hernandez, Kyle Lohse(33235), Ramiro Mendoza, Jason Phillips(4331), Brian Powell(42050), Carl Sadler, Steve Sparks(45324), John Stephens(0555), Ben Weber, and Jake Westbrook(540). Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Jeremy Affeldt(33050), Miguel Acencio(03312), James Baldwin(41500), Adam Bernero(30020), Rocky Biddle(00), Ryan Bukvich, Scott Erickson(00300), Tony Fiore(22), Ryan Franklin(3301), Dustin Hermanson, Danny Kolb, Jose Lima(20204), Mike Maroth(04423), Darrell May(43002), Justin Miller(53000), Aaron Myette(00033), Jay Powell, Dennys Reyes, Juan Rincon(400), Willis Roberts, Ricardo Rodriguez(2), Scot Shields, Jorge Sosa(31004), Jeff Tam, Anthony Telford, Pete Walker(04343), Mark Wohlers, Danny Wright(44032), and Esteban Yan.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Teams either looking for either a decent 4th/5th starter for the stretch run or who want to audition starters on the 40-man roster frequently only will give each contender one to three starts to prove himself. Someone like the Cubs' Steve Smyth, touted as a prospect without great minor league numbers, could easily return to the minors for the next season. Anyone posting a 11 PQS score over two games is primed for a demotion; only gamble on pitchers with a solid skills' foundation.