Today's Fantasy Rx

Thirty pitchers earned a 1 for their performance this season as of a week ago. Brendan Donnelly joined the list this week while Steve Karsay(K:BB) dropped off, again leaving our total of LIMA-quality 2002 AL pitchers with at least 15 IP at thirty AL pitchers.

Please refer here if you'd like to take another look at some of our methodology.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the eleventh set of 2002 in-season AL LPR ratings which include all games played through July 25th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abcxyz - Pedro Martinez(54555)

Arthur Rhodes
Mariano Rivera

He's not the best pitcher this season quite yet, but Pedro's now fourth overall and about to pass Glavine and then Colon. We could easily have teammates finishing 1-2 in both Cy votes, and we'd love to see that World Series' matchup.

123
abcxyz - Roger Clemens(20224)
abxy - Roy Halladay(44435)

Eddie Guardado
Troy Percival

Halladay might be the pitcher I most want to own next year, especially if the Blue Jays' offense and bullpen keeps developing.

124
Chad Bradford
Ugueth Urbina

Your weekly Chad Bradford update again recommends you add Chad Bradford, perhaps the most unheralded dominant pitcher of the year.
134
Billy Koch
Cliff Politte
Paul Shuey

Shuey's in line for some Indians' saves, so add him if available in your league. Koch could easily lead the AL and perhaps even the majors in saves. Lastly, while Politte is pitching very effectively, the Jays' recent hot streak suggests that Escobar might stay around, reducing the possibility of additional save opps for Politte.

234
Keith Foulke

We don't expect him to leave town as few teams can afford a $5M+ middle reliever, so keep trying to pick him up, and you might find an incredible closer bargain for the last two months of 2002 and all of 2003.

12
bx - Joel Pineiro(43342)
by - Mark Mulder(53545)

We're starting to see burnout warnings on Pineiro, but we also have no intention of trading him in one AL-only league where we're rebuilding. Mulder may be the A's best starter right now and would be a great addition to any team.

Matt Ginter
Ricardo Rincon
Kaz Sasaki

Two of these three quality pitchers are likely highly undervalued yet potential double-digit earners in your league, and if you can add Ginter cheaply, you might grab a couple saves by the end of the year.

13
axby - Tim Wakefield(45354)

Buddy Groom

While Wakefield certainly wouldn't be my first pick in starting a team, if given the option to select him in an expansion draft, he should rank in the top few players. We believe knuckleball pitchers offer significant advantages to a pitching staff, both for spot starts and extended relief appearances to save the rest of the bullpen, and Wakefield's proven himself in both roles. I strongly recommend him in any AL-only leagues, and depending on the depth of your mixed league, he also might help there.

23
abcxyz - Mike Mussina(42454)
abxyz - Tim Hudson(34314)
bcxyz - Chan Ho Park(34423)
bxyz - Kevin Appier(34523)
x - Danys Baez(04534)

Mussina's the hottest pitcher in this bunch, although we're perfectly willing to run any of them.

24
cx - Paul Wilson(24534)

Dan Miceli
Todd Van Poppel

Van Poppel's been a horrible disappointment this year, although his lack of value is due to the surprisingly weak Texas offense; we expected around double digits of vultured wins, and he's provided so little help that we've actively dumped him from most teams.

34
xy - Joe Kennedy(44200)

Randy Choate
Rich Garces
Bob Howry
David Riske
Mike Stanton

Everyone here seems riske at the moment, and we only recommend Stanton due to the possible save opps while Rivera's out again.

1
Johan Santana(05500)
John Halama(24031)
Casey Fossum(5)
Juan Acevedo
Francisco Cordero
Brendan Donnelly
Alan Embree
LaTroy Hawkins
Jorge Julio
Damaso Marte
J.C. Romero

Santana's losing value rapidly and might leave the rotation unless Kyle Lohse unexpectedly implodes, and Halama's also lost starting consistency. Donnelly, our new addition here this week, offers significant ERA/WHIP upside, supported by traditionally solid MLEs.

The one name here to immediately grab is Casey Fossum, who offers immediate four-category upside as a Boston starter. We've held him at $10 on a team we're rebuilding and believe he might be a bargain at that price next year. He's a mild risk, but we're confident in both his short-term and long-term effectiveness.

2
abcxyz - Barry Zito(35344)
axy - Freddy Garcia(45104)
b - Rolando Arrojo(55020)
x - C.C. Sabathia(32322)
z - Kelvim Escobar

After over a half season without any starting consistency, Sabathia finally moves up to the top half of the 2 rating; we still don't approve of him for contenders despite his great upside. Garcia's problems suggest a potential injury, and we're quite worried about his erratic performance. Zito will likely remain the best bet here, although he's also due for a DL trip given his relatively high workload.

Matt Anderson
Lorzeno Barcelo
Shigetoshi Hasegawa
Antonio Osuna
Lou Pote
B.J. Ryan
Rudy Seanez
Victor Zambrano

Hasegawa and Zambrano offer some upside, and the latter might help rebuilding teams, but Osuna remains the only acceptable option here for contenders.

3
bxy - John Burkett(22342)
yz - Rick Reed(34431)
y - Andy Pettitte(50433)

Three high-risk, medium-upside pitchers not generally recommended for contenders, although all could provide significant help if you can avoid their disasters.

Gary Glover(03323)
Al Levine
Jim Mecir
Jeff Nelson
Travis Phelps
John Rocker
Bob Wickman
Kelly Wunsch

With Wickman injured, I don't advise deploying anyone on this list due to their miscellaneous problems.

4
ax - Derek Lowe(52445)
y - Luke Prokopec(02542)

Jerrod Riggan

I don't see Prokopec closing in Toronto as some have suggested, but if you have the open roster slot, he's worth some consideration. Hopefully Lowe can boost his strikeout rate slightly to at least finish the year at 14, although he obviously retains significant value despite his sub-6 K/9.

a
xyz - Ramon Ortiz(45051)
cx - David Wells(51344)
xy - Jeff Weaver(44442)
xz - Orlando Hernandez(40524)
Rob Bell(53414)

We're growing ever less impressed with Mark Buehrle, although David Wells continues to pitch quite well this year. Chuck Finley heads over the to the NL while Weaver suffers from the longball. Even the formerly very consistent Ortiz has suffered through his first two disasters in his last five starts. Fortunately all these pitchers retain significant upside due to their ax+ rating, and we have no problem with deploying any of them against any team.

b
y - Cory Lidle(33041)
Brandon Lyon(20300)
Matt Wise

Lidle remains a trade risk for AL-only leagues that lose players dealt to the NL, but they might have to wait until August to finish a deal unless Ted Lilly rebounds very quickly from the DL.

c
x - Mark Redman(42345)
Sterling Hitchcock(00)

While Redman's suddenly looking very solid, his value is a few bucks lower in 5x5 and could kill your ERA and WHIP at anytime; however he's also assembled the occasional very impressive skill ratio, suggesting he might be a very good keeper.

x
yz - Jarrod Washburn(55333)
y - Mark Buehrle(24533)
y - Jeff Suppan(44223)
y - Tanyon Sturtze(14420)
y - Paul Byrd(11335)
z - Frank Castillo(32400)
Rodrigo Lopez(14434)
John Lackey(53340)
Ryan Rupe(42500)
James Baldwin(32344)
Shawn Sedlacek(32342)
Jorge Sosa(03334)

Washburn, Suppan, Lopez, Lackey, Sedlacek, and Sosa all offer interesting upside with various degrees of risk, and only Washburn and Lopez particularly appeal to me. A quick ranking of the keeper potential of the rookies here, assuming each is around $5: Lackey(if healthy), Sedlacek, Lopez, and Rule 5 pick Sosa.

y
z - Jamie Moyer(43435)
z - Aaron Sele(43244)
z - Todd Ritchie(40330)
z - Kenny Rogers(30334)
z - Brad Radke(15300)
z - Pat Hentgen

Eric Milton(53545)
Dave Burba(43203)
Esteban Loiaza(02053)
Erik Hiljus(40200)
Scott Schoeneweis(32030)
Jon Garland(23300)
Josh Towers(121)
Doug Davis(12120)
Paul Abbott(02300)
Joe Mays(0003)
Rick Bauer

Moyer's one of the hottest and most consistent pitchers in the game now that he's escaped from his June swoon. Sele also appears on the rebound, and if Kenny Rogers changes leagues, break open your FAAB.

Milton has also suddenly emerged as a stud; I highly recommend him for anyone who needs wins and can risk perhaps mild ERA/WHIP troubles, although he could help there, too.

No contender has any reason to deploy Garland short of absolute desperation to add IP.

z
Steve Parris(42442)
Jason Johnson(41412)
Sidney Ponson(20323)
Blake Stein(02)
Jim Parque

Parris continues to demonstrate some potential and could add some wins if he changes teams. The Baltimore younguns would look better on other teams, but despite decent struggles, I wouldn't mind deploying either pitcher.

AL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear here include Jeremy Affeldt(33050), Rob Bell(34141), Chris Carpenter(32534), Aaron Harang(05530), Travis Harper(044), Roberto Hernandez, Runelvys Hernandez(35), Sun-Woo Kim(30), Danny Kolb, Ted Lilly(25052), Kyle Lohse(04533), Ramiro Mendoza, Jason Phillips(433), Scot Shields, Ismael Valdes(51324), Pete Walker(02041), Ben Weber, and Esteban Yan. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Miguel Ascencio(02301), Adam Bernero(30020), Ryan Bukvich, Luis de los Santos(01), Ryan Drese(35020), Travis Driskill(13103), Scott Erickson(43351), Tony Fiore(22), Ryan Franklin(3301), Seth Greisinger(03400), Matt Kinney(32021), Mike Maroth(30504), Darrell May(05430), Aaron Myette(310), Charles Nagy(04), Jay Powell, Dan Reichert(01231), Juan Rincon(400), Willis Roberts, Steve Sparks(30024), Jeff Tam, Anthony Telford, Mark Wohlers, and Danny Wright(04344).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Casey Fossum and Kyle Lohse both appear healthy, effective, and in good situations to continue their development. Both are also likely available in many leagues, and you should see if you can pick up one or both.