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July
25th
2002
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
July 2002 Underachieving NL Pitchers
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

We apologize for this week's technical problems, which have limited some of my articles, and expect the fixed files to be available in the archive no later than Saturday.


Arizona: Brian Anderson, LH Starter
5-7 on 53:21 K:BB in 108.2 IP over 16 GS(25G) with 125 H, 16 HR, and a 5.05 ERA.

Schilling and Randy are among the front runners for the Cy because they've combined solid pitching with run support of 6.5 R/G and 5.7 R/G respectively; Rick Helling owns seven wins thanks to a 5.9 R/G from the offense. At the other end of the rotation, Miguel Batista's stuck at five wins thanks to 4.4 R/G support, and Brian Anderson has suffered the most of Arizona's regular starters with five wins on only 4.2 R/G. While he hasn't fulfilled his promise as Arizona's first selection in the 1997 expansion draft, Anderson has at least helped stabilize the rotation, providing between 130 and 215 innings in each of the franchise's first four seasons of play. His 4.4 K/9 is actually his second highest strikeout rate, and his 1.3 HR/9 is his second best mark in that category; fortunately his 1.24 G-F this year, a career-best by .22 G-F, indicates that he should finally stop allowing so many homers. Even with this minor improvement and the strong possibility of increased support by Arizona's offense, Anderson doesn't really appear ownable due to his strong downside and potential move to the bullpen when Helling returns, given the strong recent performances of Miguel Batista and John Patterson. A 43325 current 5-start PQS log isn't bad, so see if you can deal him before he loses all value.

June Underachiever: Greg Swindell, LH Reliever
Old stats: 0-0 on 6:1 K:BB in 10.1 IP over 12 G with 11 H, 3 HR, and a 6.10 ERA.
Recommendation: deal or cut.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 5:4 K:BB in 12.1 IP over 10 G with 11 H, 5 HR, and a 5.84 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Rick Helling, RH Starter; May: Miguel Batista, RH Swingman


Atlanta: Tim Spooneybarger, RH Reliever
0-0 on 17:15 K:BB in 26.1 IP over 27 G with 22 H, 1 HR, and a 3.42 ERA.

I've seen recent speculation about John Smoltz possibly moving back into the rotation next season, leaving the closer's job open for someone like Spooneybarger. Considering the Braves' organization-wide depth at starting pitcher, Smoltz shouldn't be allowed this choice, and if he somehow forces a move, Spooneybarger doesn't appear ready to close. While his 2001 MLEs of 9.4 K/9, 3.1 K:BB, and .2 HR/9 definitely indicate closing potential, he hadn't pitched above A+ Macon prior to last year and he's failed to convert his potential into solid Major League command. Of course his supporting ratios, including a 1.85 G-F, .3 HR/9, and 7.5 H/9 are excellent, but a 5.8 K/9 and 1.1 K:BB doesn't suggest a pitcher capable of finishing games at this time. A career minor leaguer like Joey Dawley would first deserve the opportunity. If a rebuilding team inquires about Spooneybarger as a potential 2003 closer, feel free to deal him for immediate help, as while his stats are superficially good, we expected more this year and now have doubts regarding his future.

June Underachiever: Albie Lopez, RH Swingman
Old stats: 1-3 on 18:10 K:BB in 27.1 IP over 13 G(3GS) with 32 H, 0 HR, and a 4.71 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 3:5 K:BB in 8 IP over 4 G(1GS) with 9 H, 1 HR, and a 4.50 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: John Smoltz, RH Closer; May: Kevin Millwood, RH Starter


Chicago Cubs: Antonio Alfonseca, RH Closer
13 Saves on 36:20 K:BB in 44.1 IP over 41 G with 37 H, 2 HR, and a 2.84 ERA.

I thought ESPN's stats were in err when I saw that Pulpo's only managed a baker's dozen saves. Smoltz and Gagne have twice as many saves as Alfonseca's seventeen save opportunities. While he's struggled at times and his 1.8 K:BB is mildly disappointing after strong growth to 2.7 K:BB in 2001, there's little wrong with career-best marks of 7.3 K:BB, .4 HR/9, 7.5 H/9, and 2.21 G-F. While other closers certainly offer more dominance, Count Rugen owns strong supporting numbers that suggest he could certainly see extended success over both the rest of 2002 and through at least next year. The Cubs offer a great situation with a marginal offense and impressive rotation, and many relievers have thrived in similar setups. If you need saves, Alfonseca should remain at the top of your list of closers to acquire.

June Underachiever: Jason Bere, RH Starter
Old stats: 1-8 on 61:25 K:BB in 79.1 IP over 14 GS with 86 H, 8 HR, and a 4.99 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 1:1 K:BB in 2.1 IP over 1 GS with 5 H, 3 HR, and an 11.57 ERA before hitting the DL with a severely bruised right knee.

Previous Underachievers: April: Jason Bere, RH Starter; May: Jeff Fassero, LH Reliever


Cincinnati: Ryan Dempster, RH Starter
5-11 on 98:63 K:BB in 132.1 IP over 21 GS with 146 H, 16 HR, and a 5.44 ERA.

Aside from only throwing 133 IP in 1998, Dempster hasn't pitched less than 165 IP in any year since he turned 19 in 1996. Florida left him out for 437 IP over the last two years, a very high number for a pitcher who didn't turn 25 until this May. I suspect he's either been hiding an injury or will "suddenly develop" one at some point in the near future, as his skills have disintegrated since his All-Star 2000. We've seen his K:BB fall from 2.2 in 2000 to 1.5 last year and now 1.6 in 2002; his strikeout rate fell from 8.3 to 7.3 and now 6.7 K/9, while his hit rate has gone from 8.4 to 9.3 and now 9.9 H/9 this year. His HR/9(1.2 to .9 and now 1.1) and G-F(1.08 to 1.22 and now .93) have only stayed consistent at best, and pitchers don't generally lose all of their skills over a two-year period for no apparent reason. He shouldn't expect any more defensive help as Cincinnati is similar to Florida in the field, so Dempster could easily continue his roto-unfriendly pitching all year. Cincy might move him to the bullpen, but I just can't recommend him at this time. Only acquire him if rebuilding, as I like his potential for next season if he can rest his arm.

June Underachiever: Scott Sullivan, RH Reliever
Old stats: 4-2 on 37:15 K:BB in 40 IP over 37 G with 34 H, 6 HR, and a 4.50 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire, especially if you can sit him against tough teams on the road.
Stats since recommendation: 2-1 on 24:7 K:BB in 23 IP over 15 G with 28 H, 5 HR, and a 4.70 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Scott Williamson, RH Reliever; May: Joey Hamilton, RH Starter


Colorado: Todd Jones, RH Reliever
1-2 on 51:23 K:BB in 52.2 IP over 51 G with 49 H, 4 HR, and a 4.44 ERA.

While Justin Speier's due for an ERA spike, Jones, with his far superior 1.42 G-F ratio, possess closer-caliber skills that a team like Montreal definitely should have sought to procure. Only control problems have truly hindered his production in the past, and he's walking over a batter per game less than his career average. He also writes an extremely interesting column each week during the season in The Sporting News, offering insights that you find in few other places aside from self-indulgent autobiographies, if you'll pardon the redundancy. Make every effort to add him if he gains a bigger role, but with Colorado approaching an extended home stand beginning a week from Monday, wait to see if he moves elsewhere before taking other action.

June Underachiever: Mike Hampton, LH Starter
Old stats: 3-8 on 45:55 K:BB in 85.1 IP over 15 GS with 118 H, 5 HR, and a 7.07 ERA.
Recommendation: deal, drop, or release.
Stats since recommendation: 2-4 on 13:9 K:BB in 37 IP over 6 GS with 61 H, 9 HR, and a 6.32 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: John Thomson, RH Starter; May: Denny Neagle, LH Starter


Florida: Julian Tavarez, RH Starter
6-8 on 42:46 K:BB in 93 IP over 17 GS with 115 H, 6 HR, and a 6.19 ERA.

While we strongly suspected he'd have problems this year, we didn't expect he'd both walk an extra batter per game and strike out more than a batter less every nine innings. His complete command collapse destroys his roto value and leaves him unownable. A 2.00 G-F ratio and corresponding .6 HR/9 are the only signs of hopes here, but realistically Tavarez will be lucky to grab an NRI with Tampa next year. Deal or cut him if he's anywhere near your roster.

June Underachiever: Braden Looper, RH Reliever
Old stats: 0-3 on 28:15 K:BB in 37.2 IP over 33 G with 40 H, 6 HR, and a 4.54 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-0 on 4:7 K:BB in 15.2 IP over 15 G with 8 H, 0 HR, and a 1.15 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Brad Penny, RH Starter; May: Josh Beckett, RH Starter


Houston: Wade Miller, RH Starter
7-3 on 64:31 K:BB in 80.1 IP over 14 GS with 83 H, 10 HR, and a 4.59 ERA.

We expected a more impressive year from Miller, but he hasn't excelled after returning from missing most of April and May with a pinched nerve in his neck. His 1.27 G-F is near is 1.35 career average, and he's within two decent starts of both the HR/9 and H/9 LPR goals. A 15334 5-start PQS log shows good promise and indicates that you can still generally rely on Miller to avoid disasters. Also, his 7.0 K/9 rate is only less than a K/9 off from his career average. Now might be a good time to acquire Miller given his only average qualitative stats, and I'll be surprised if he doesn't perform admirably when the Astros make their Wild Card push.

June Underachiever: Tim Redding, RH Starter
Old stats: 3-4 on 49:26 K:BB in 56.1 IP over 11GS(12G) with 55 H, 9 HR, and a 5.27 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-2 on 13:9 K:BB in 17 IP over 3 GS(6G) with 23 H, 1 HR, and a 5.82 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Billy Wagner, LH Closer; May: Scott Linebrink, RH Reliever


Los Angeles: Andy Ashby, RH Starter
7-8 on 77:42 K:BB in 126.1 IP over 20 GS with 119 H, 15 HR, and a 3.99 ERA.

While he held a 1 LPR rating earlier in the season, he hasn't exceeded six innings in his last six starts, compiling a very weak 023131 PQS log during that time. He's somehow managing a 1.47 G-F, his worst mark ever and a definite worry considering his 2.01 G-F average. With an unacceptable 1.8 K:BB continuing the trend from his last healthy season, this 35-year-old control pitcher definitely is deteriorating in the latter stages of his career. Ashby has dashed my limited hopes that he could maintain his good skills from earlier in the year, and now looks like someone you should deal before any trading deadline in your league.

June Underachiever: Giovanni Carrara, RH Reliever
Old stats: 4-2 on 21:14 K:BB in 41 IP over 33 G with 44 H, 6 HR, and a 4.17 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 2-1 on 13:5 K:BB in 22.2 IP over 15 G with 13 H, 5 HR, and a 2.38 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Paul Quantrill, RH Reliever; May: Kevin Brown, RH Starter


Milwaukee: Ruben Quevedo, RH Starter
6-7 on 81:56 K:BB in 119 IP over 21 GS with 130 H, 22 HR, and a 5.22 ERA.

A stunning 5555 streak earlier this year, a mark of excellence reached by only Schilling, Schmidt, Lawrence, and Freddy Garcia this year, Quevedo's returned to his normal inconsistency, with his most recent 10300 streak indicative of his skill deficiency. His .56 G-F is another poor mark after a .59 last year and .71 in 2000 when the Cubs attempted to blow out his arm at the end of the year. All his ratios have deteriorated after ten very good starts last season, but the loss of over 3 K/9 from his dominance definitely reduces his value in 5x5 leagues. Quevedo doesn't appear worth deploying except under the best of conditions, and contenders should probably leave him on the bench whenever possible. We'll need to see some very positive signs over the last two months to avoid recommending strongly against him next year. Deal him if you can find any rebuilding team interested in a fizzling former top prospect.

June Underachiever: Ben Sheets, RH Starter
Old stats: 4-7 on 72:39 K:BB in 90 IP over 15 GS with 100 H, 5 HR, and a 4.00 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire him if rebuilding; wait for more consistency.
Stats since recommendation: 0-5 on 35:9 K:BB in 39.2 IP over 6 GS with 47 H, 6 HR, and a 4.99 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Nick Neugebauer, RH Starter; May: Glendon Rusch, LH Starter


Montreal: Tony Armas, Jr., RH Starter
8-10 on 101:59 K:BB in 122.2 IP over 21 GS with 105 H, 18 HR, and a 4.48 ERA.

Armas has struggled somewhat after a string of five straight dominant starts back in May. Instead of continuing his development from last season after reaching 1.9 K:BB and 8.1 K/9, he's slipped back to 1.7 K:BB and 7.4 K/9. His homer rate has also increased to 1.3 HR/9 from .8 HR/9 despite an increase in his G-F ratio from 1.04 to 1.53 this year. His current 52204 5-start PQS indicates he's primarily lacking consistency in his skills instead of a specific skill deficiency. Rebuilding teams should look to add him, although contenders should just wait to see if he'll rebound.

June Underachiever: Matt Herges, RH Reliever
Old stats: 6 Saves on 28:15 K:BB in 35.1 IP over 37 G with 48 H, 2 HR, and a 3.06 ERA.
Recommendation: wait.
Stats since recommendation: 0 Saves on 7:2 K:BB in 9.1 IP over 8 G with 13 H, 5 HR, and a 6.75 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Britt Reames, RH Reliever; May: Javier Vazquez, RH Starter


New York Mets: Scott Strickland, RH Reliever
6-6 on 43:23 K:BB in 44 IP over 47 G with 40 H, 6 HR, and a 3.98 ERA.

He ran into some problems near the end of June when he started allowing a homer in seemingly every other game. A 1.00 G-F is right in line with his career ratio, although he's only barely avoiding a third straight year with a dropping G-F, suggesting his homer problems may continue in the future. We expected a lot from Strickland as Montreal's closer, and while he's added a helpful number of wins from middle relief, only a very unlikely trade of Armando Benitez would allow Strickland to reach double-digit 2002 value. The combination of his deteriorating command and increasing homer problems reduces even his nominal current value. Consider a deal to add a more consistent reliever with better overall skills.

June Underachiever: Jeff D'Amico, RH Starter
Old stats: 4-6 on 61:18 K:BB in 88.1 IP over 14 GS with 76 H, 12 HR, and a 4.18 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 1-2 on 25:10 K:BB in 33.1 IP over 6 GS with 46 H, 7 HR, and a 6.48 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Kane Davis, RH Reliever; May: Shawn Estes, LH Starter

Philadelphia: Robert Person, RH Starter
4-5 on 61:51 K:BB in 87.2 IP over 16 GS with 79 H, 13 HR, and a 5.44 ERA before hitting the DL with shoulder and elbow pain.

Person's value is approaching its lowest point in years, and if doctors find any additional problems with his arm, he might not return this season. Philadelphia doesn't really need him back with Padilla, Wolf, Duckworth, Myers, and Roa capably filling out the rotation, a fortunate situation for the Phillies as we're not surprised that Person might have a major problem after two years of a very heavy workload. His .56 G-F is relatively awful even as it's only slightly lower than his career mark of .66. With his command disappearing in addition to allowing too many homers, as well as a 33320 5-start PQS log indicating very little immediate upside, you shouldn't bother trying to add Person. Try to deal the prospective free agent if anyone thinks he'll rebound this season.

June Underachiever: Rheal Cormier, LH Reliever
Old stats: 3-4 on 23:13 K:BB in 25.1 IP over 29 G with 23 H, 2 HR, and a 5.33 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-1 on 7:7 K:BB in 14 IP over 11 G with 9 H, 2 HR, and a 4.50 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Randy Wolf, LH Starter; May: Brandon Duckworth, RH Starter


Pittsburgh: Josias Manzanillo, RH Reliever
0-0 on 1:3 K:BB in 5 IP over 5 G with 9 H, 2 HR, and a 12.60 ERA.

After making the biggest mistake of all free agents by not accepting arbitration (as his Type A status required any prospective new team to give up their first round pick to sign a right-handed middle reliever), Manzanillo spent the necessary month in the minors before a May 1st call-up. He pitched in one game before a bone chip in his right elbow forced him to the DL for over two months. Manzanillo only rejoined the team a little under two weeks ago, and instead of resuming his dominant pitching from last season and April in AAA, he's shown practically no skill. Even his formerly decent G-F has dropped to a terrible .55, so unless you can leave him on an Ultra reserve until his skills improve, deal or cut Manzanillo as he lacks the skills to repeat last year's success.

June Underachiever: Kris Benson, RH Starter
Old stats: 0-4 on 20:18 K:BB in 34.2 IP over 8 GS with 54 H, 5 HR, and a 7.79 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 3-0 on 14:8 K:BB in 27.2 IP over 5 GS with 32 H, 4 HR, and a 6.51 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Sean Lowe, RH Reliever; May: Ron Villone, LH Swingman


San Diego: Tom Davey, RH Reliever
0-0 on 6:3 K:BB in 9 IP over 6 G with 9 H, 1 HR, and a 5.63 ERA.

A former top closer prospect with Toronto, who looked very impressive in 2001 prior to arthroscopic surgery on his strained right shoulder, Davey has the opportunity to re-merge as San Diego's top setup man with Fikac's struggles and Reed likely moving elsewhere by the deadline. His 1.00 G-F is nowhere near his 2.27 mark from last season, but I suspect all his ratios will improve as he sees more time in the majors this year. If anyone's looking for Hoffman's back-up in the unlikely case of injury, Davey might be a safer bet than Fikac at the moment. However, as we don't know if Davey will encounter difficulties in his return to the big leagues, only wait on his development if you can afford a potential ERA and WHIP hit.

Also, last month I posted the number for the GM of the AAA Portland Beavers, suggesting that San Diego GM Kevin Towers contact him to call-up a pitcher or two who was old enough to rent a car at any agency, perhaps John Snyder, Brandon Villafuerte, or Jason Kershner. As both Villafuerte and Kershner have spent time with the Padres since that column, Kevin, we appreciate your support.

June Underachiever: Jeremy Fikac, RH Reliever
Old stats: 3-5 on 30:16 K:BB in 33.2 IP over 29 G with 29 H, 7 HR, and a 4.28 ERA.
Recommendation: deal.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 5:9 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 11 G with 17 H, 2 HR, and a 7.15 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Brian Tollberg, RH Starter; May: Jason Middlebrook, RH Swingman


San Francisco: Russ Ortiz, RH Starter
7-6 on 82:60 K:BB in 133.1 IP over 21 GS with 124 H, 9 HR, and a 3.71 ERA.

We expected this former walk junkie to continue his extremely impressive development from last season, even projecting him to compile better overall stats than pitchers like Kerry Wood and Tom Glavine. Instead Ortiz has slipped back to his old bad habits by walking almost two more batters per game than last season. He's still showing signs of improvement as his 1.30 G-F is the best mark of his career, but his current 23532 5-start PQS log shows that his dominant starts grow increasingly rare. I see no statistical evidence indicating that he'll even rebound to last year's form, but unless another owner is willing to overpay for the wins and unsupported qualitative help, you should probably wait on Ortiz for now.

June Underachiever: Felix Rodriguez, RH Reliever
Old stats: 2-3 on 30:16 K:BB in 29.2 IP over 31 G with 30 H, 4 HR, and a 4.85 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 1-3 on 6:5 K:BB in 11 IP over 12 G with 12 H, 0 HR, and a 9.00 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Aaron Fultz, LH Reliever; May: Jason Schmidt, RH Starter


St. Louis: Travis Smith, RH Starter
3-1 on 26:17 K:BB in 46.2 IP over 8 GS(10G) with 58 H, 9 HR, and a 6.56 ERA.

Smith's troubles are somewhat surprising considering his solid 2002 AAA numbers and his relatively good MLE history. Unfortunately after beginning the year with a 255 PQS log, he's slipped rather badly to a 03320 over his last five starts. A 1.15 G-F supports a much superior homer rate to his current 1.7 HR/9, but even if he can show rather immediate improvement, the Cardinals seem determined to upgrade his slot with a new acquisition. Minor league journeymen with 6+ ERAs in several starts often don't get another extended opportunity, and Smith's very weak 1.5 K:BB won't boost his other stats. Deal or cut Smith to avoid further qualitative damage.

June Underachiever: Steve Kline, LH Reliever
Old stats: 0-0 on 16:3 K:BB in 15.1 IP over 19 G with 16 H, 0 HR, and a 4.70 ERA.
Recommendation: acquire.
Stats since recommendation: 0-1 on 10:7 K:BB in 10.2 IP over 14 G with 10 H, 1 HR, and a 3.38 ERA.

Previous Underachievers: April: Bud Smith, LH Starter; May: Garrett Stephenson, RH Starter


Internet Challenge

Kim, Mike Williams, Guardado, and Julio continue to comprise the extent of our relief corps.

Starters(6)
Randy Johnson: Fri:SD(Peavy)
Curt Schilling: Sat:SD(Lawrence)
Mike Mussina: Fri:@TB(Jo.Sosa)
Matt Morris: Sun:CHC(Clement)
Barry Zito: Sun:@TEX(Valdes)
Kerry Wood: Sat:@STL(Simontacchi)
Roy Oswalt: Sat:PIT(J.Anderson)
Eric Gagne: 3 Road at San Francisco.
Brian Lawrence: Sat:@ARI(Schilling).

No starts: Pedro, Clemens, and Vazquez.

Randy, Schilling, and Oswalt are mandatory as we need strikeouts and they face high strikeout teams. We refuse to sit Gagne for cap reasons, and then Mussina and Zito face teams more likely to give us strikeouts than Kerry Wood against St. Louis, as only one(Anaheim) team has less strikeouts than the Cardinals this year. While the Cubs are also in the top five of teams with the most strikeouts, Clement is the only great opponent that our pitchers face, so we don't mind sitting Morris.

Most of our Rockies sit, but we'll deploy Uribe as he's both decently hot and in Milwaukee, and we always like running our hitters against Brewer pitching in Miller. Finally we need another semi-inexpensive hitter unless we want to run Durazo, so we're going to add Torii Hunter while cutting Durazo, leaving us with two buys left, along with the two roster expansion pick-ups in four weeks.

Bonds and Klesko sit, and then we need to either deploy Hunter and Pierre for Jason Giambi and Ichiro, or deploy Hunter for either Sosa or Vlad. We don't really want to run Pierre and we like Giambi in Tampa, so our decision is between Sosa and Vlad. Despite his slump and an awful 1:10 BB:K over the last week, Sosa has five RBI to Vlad's two, although he lacks Vlad's stolen bases.

Looking at our overall team needs, we're in the top 25 in ERA, top 50 in BA and WHIP, top 75 in Runs, and top 100 in steals. However we're only top 200 in saves and HR, top 275 in strikeouts, and in RBI, our major problem, we're barely in the top half of all teams.

Sosa vs. Vlad is a tough decision, and given that we need power so much more than all other categories, we're going to go (hopefully) against the popular sentiment, sit Randy in favor of Morris, and keep our offense intact. San Diego crushed Randy on Sunday, and his 45442 5-start PQS indicates a worse trend than Morris' 31555; maybe we'll get lucky and Randy's back problems will stymie those owners deploying him as a "safe" pitcher to boost their sagging ERA and WHIP. The only other necessary minor change is benching Rollins, moving Uribe to SS, and deploying our new acquisition of Torii Hunter.


The Umpire Hunter(1st lg; 6th overall)
Week 17b: July 26 - July 28

C 	Jorge Posada		990
C	A.J. Pierzynski		460
1B	Jason Giambi		1640
1B	Paul Konerko		1220
2B	Luis Castillo		1000
2B	Alfonso Soriano		900
3B	Eric Chavez		1070
3B	Shea Hillenbrand	450
SS	Alex Rodriguez		1880
SS	Juan Uribe		500
OF	Ichiro Suzuki		1330
OF	Lance Berkman		1320
OF	J.D. Drew		1010
OF	Torii Hunter		830
OF	Adam Dunn		710
OF	Daryle Ward		620
DH	Sammy Sosa		1900
DH	Vlad Guerrero		1880

SP	Curt Schilling		1540
SP	Mike Mussina		1380
SP	Matt Morris		1190
SP	Barry Zito		1080
SP	Roy Oswalt		830
SP	Eric Gagne		500
RP	Byung-Hyun Kim		1200
RP	Mike Williams		900
RP	Eddie Guardado		900
RP	Jorge Julio		750


Today's Fantasy Rx: We've now overbid for Chuck Finley by apparently $20 or more in two different NL-only leagues, leaving us to wonder if our fellow owners haven't arranged for more Tawny accusations in Chuck's future. To quote from this year's edition of Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster: "American League left-handers often experience some early dominance upon coming over to the NL. This advantage over hitters normally lasts about one season." Randy Johnson's 1998 performance in Houston is the most extreme example of this phenomenon, but we definitely believe Finley will pitch exceptionally effectively in St. Louis, and his debut in Pittsburgh supports this position, as he compiled an 8:2 K:BB in 6 IP with 7 H, 0 HR, and 5-6 G-F. While not a fantastic first NL start, his 2002 skill ratios include a career-best .5 HR/9 and 1.94 G-F, along with respectable marks of 2.0 K:BB, 8.0 K/9, and 9.8 H/9. St. Louis is a slightly above-average defensive team that prevents almost ten percent more hits than Cleveland, which owns the worst team defense in the majors. The defensive change should fix the minor problem in his hit rate, making Finley one of the best starters to own in any league for the remainder of the season. Check to see if his new owner will part with him if you need any pitching help at all.


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