Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer here to see the changes made to the rating system.

Thirty-nine National Leaguers earned a 1 for their performance through two weeks ago. This week, six pitchers joined the list while five departed, leaving us with forty pitchers displaying solid skills.

Pitchers who joined the list include Mike Koplove, Mike Myers, Curt Schilling, Darren Holmes, Blaine Neal, and Brian Lawrence.

Pitchers who departed include Randy Johnson(HR/9), Kevin Millwood(HR/9), T.J. Mathews(HR/9), Jim Brower(K:BB, H/9), and Pedro Astacio(HR/9).

Please refer here if you'd like to take another look at some of our methodology.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the tenth set of 2002 in-season NL LPR ratings, which include all games played through July 19th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
abxy - Brian Lawrence(20545)

Robb Nen

Lawrence doubles next week against Odalis Perez and Curt Schilling, but we still plan on using him considering he's pitching great right now.

123
Kyle Farnsworth
Jason Isringhausen
Billy Wagner

Farnsworth looks fine and still could close next year, while Izzy also appears recovered from his injury problems.

124
abcxyz - Al Leiter(54244)

Justin Speier

Leiter remains a dominant force, and Speier owns the best skills in the Rockies' bullpen, although we're not willing to take a chance on a Colorado middle reliever.

234
abcxyz - Randy Johnson(54544)

Juan Cruz(41005)
Jeremy Fikac
Felix Rodriguez

I wish Randy would stop allowing homers in nearly every start since he really should stay at 1234. The three middle relievers here all harbor significant potential, but none of them seems likely to move out of middle relief in the near future respectively due to a filled Chicago starting rotation and two of the most consistent closers in baseball.

12
abcxyz- Curt Schilling(43554)
aby - Jason Schmidt(35144)

Mike Remlinger
John Smoltz
Dave Weathers

Schilling and Schmidt remain two of the most dominant starters in baseball, both especially helpful in 5x5 leagues. There's also nothing wrong with these relievers, although Weathers is a trade risk.

13
Joey Eischen
Byung-Hyun Kim
Paul Quantrill
Steve Reed
Luis Vizcaino
Jay Witasick

One top closer and five of the best setup men in the league give us a nice choice of options in this group. Vizcaino and Reed are our preferences from this cluster, although Eischen, Quantrill, and Witasick would be useful in almost any NL-only league.

14
Trevor Hoffman
Gabe White

White's quietly pitched as well as any reliever in baseball, and as Hoffman always takes off in the second half, he should be leading your short list if you need a closer.

23
abcxy - Kerry Wood(32445)
by - Brad Penny(40000)

Wood seems to have regained his dominance while Penny is practically unownable at the moment; trade or reserve him until he stops posting zeroes.

Nick Neugebauer(42451)
Carlos Zambrano(330)
Octavio Dotel
Jeff Fassero
Josias Manzanillo
Jose Mesa

Zambrano's cruising and should stay in the rotation indefinitely; he's a good target for rebuilding teams. Mesa and Dotel are the only overly capable relievers here, although Fassero might be decent in a new environment, preferably one with a gravity of at least 2G.

24
bcxyz - Bartolo Colon(25333)
z - Britt Reames(00)

Colon's pitching decently but isn't dominating anyone, so he'll remain a good trade target, especially with the Expos struggling.

34
bcxyz - Greg Maddux(43444)
acyz - Kevin Brown(45420)

Maddux is finally pitching consistently well again, so you should feel comfortable acquiring him for ERA, WHIP, and wins help.

Jose Acevedo(51030)
Chad Fox
Mike Holtz
Dave Veres

Holtz and Veres are decent roster filler, Acevedo's pitching well in AAA; hopefully he'll get called up or at least moved to a team willing to give him a more extended shot in the rotation.
1
axyz - A.J. Burnett(45550)
bxy - Matt Morris(53155)
ax - Odalis Perez(44333)
xz - Matt Clement(25355)
x - Vicente Padilla(20533)

We'll trust Burnett right until his arm falls off, and if its up to Jeff Torborg, that should happen around August 20th. Of this bunch, only Padilla currently worries us, leaving the others as top pitchers to deploy.

Mike Crudale(0)
Armando Benitez
Brian Boehringer
Eric Gagne
Mark Guthrie
Darren Holmes
Todd Jones
Ray King
Mike Koplove
Kent Mercker
Guillermo Mota
Mike Myers
Blaine Neal
Scott Sauerbeck
Scott Stewart
Tim Worrell

Neal should be closing right now but Florida sent him down, obviously intending to tank the season. Only Jones and Mercker are questionable plays of this bunch. Anyone else here could provide immediate help, especially if you need to replace a troublesome starter with someone more trustworthy.

2

IN MEMORIAM: bcxyz - Darryl Kile(43004)

abxyz - Randy Wolf(43455)
abxyz - Javier Vazquez(02345)
abx - Roy Oswalt(55354)
bxy - Tony Armas, Jr.(55220)
bxy - Russ Ortiz(32353)

Wolf's starting to look very impressive, although even with ERA problems, Oswalt's skills remain excellent. Wolf, Vazquez, and Oswalt can provide immediate help, but be slightly wary of WHIP disasters from Armas or Ortiz.

Nelson Cruz(0504)
Jose Jimenez
Steve Kline
Kerry Ligtenberg
Vladimir Nunez
Scott Sullivan

While now might be a good time to attempt picking up Nunez cheaply, make sure you can reserve him if necessary. Ligtenberg's skills are questionable, but the other three can certainly help. Ignore Cruz - he's too risky to own.

3
abxyz - Jon Lieber(54244)
by - Ruben Quevedo(41031)

Jason Bere(45550)
Jose Cabrera(30422)
Ryan Jensen(33251)
Tim Redding(04320)
Pedro Borbon
Giovanni Carrara
Mike Matthews
Dan Plesac

Plesac and Jensen are your best bets here, and Redding could be a good keeper.

4
xy - Ben Sheets(31555)
b - Bud Smith(02040)

Sheets is on his third roll of the year, making now a good time to acquire him; avoid Smith unless he gets traded or thoroughly reestablishes himself in the minors.

Kris Benson(03351)
Doug Brocail
Vic Darensbourg
Aaron Fultz
Scott Strickland
Greg Swindell
Scott Williamson

Even those pitchers of this bunch still in the majors worry us, and Benson only works against select opponents.

a
abcxy - Hideo Nomo(45544)
acxyz - Woody Williams(45544)
acxyz - Kevin Millwood(54545)
axy - Pedro Astacio(32024)
ax - Mark Prior(53545)
ay - Kevin Jarvis(44400)

Prior's finally emerged as a stud, although Nomo and Millwood are better plays since their respective offenses, bullpens, and even defenses are more consistent. Both of them can help any team and offer significant ERA and WHIP help.

b
bcyz - Wade Miller(31533)
bxy - John Thomson(23412)
y - Steve Trachsel(43540)
Terry Adams(33300)

Trachsel looks really interesting if he returns strongly from the DL, but the others are questionable plays. While we'll still deploy them most of the time, try to be selective in match-ups, avoiding top offensive teams where possible.

c
xyz - Ryan Dempster(54303)
xz - Robert Person(43332)
z - Glendon Rusch(44003)
Rick Ankiel

We have a lot of faith in these active starters, and Dempster especially could rebound quickly providing he's not hiding an injury from past overuse.

x
yz - Tom Glavine(20003)
yz - Elmer Dessens(43034)
y - Shawn Chacon(40333)
z - Jamey Wright(33223)

The Hidden Danger of Blisters - next on Discovery Health; I didn't expect to see Glavine slip past Dessens this year. I don't particularly trust any of these pitchers at the moment, so use them at your own risk.

Jimmy Haynes(42454)
Oliver Perez(34355)
Michael Tejera(35443)
Denny Stark(52244)
Damian Moss(54215)
Kazuhisa Ishii(40434)
Tomo Ohka(23540)
Josh Beckett(55003)
Josh Fogg(14430)
Brett Tomko(22343)
Kip Wells(33043)
Travis Smith(50332)
Bobby J. Jones(40333)
Miguel Batista(20432)
Omar Daal(43202)
Kirk Rueter(22232)
Jason Simontacchi(03333)
Andy Ashby(02313)

I can't say I expected Jimmy Haynes would be the best current choice of these eighteen starters, but even considering his normal second half problems, we're comfortable using him. Perez and Tejera also appear quite safe, although the only guys on this list we actively avoid are Stark and Rueter.

y
z - Livan Hernandez(40054)
z - Shane Reynolds(42300)
z - Denny Neagle(23300)
Brandon Duckworth(04144)
Jason Marquis(05340)
Brian Tollberg(32320)
Nelson Figueroa(30032)
Sean Lowe(0)
Darren Dreifort

Only Duckworth and Marquis work here as everyone else is either injured, ineffective, or in the bullpen.

z
Rick Helling(54400)
Shawn Estes(40223)
Mike Hampton(42221)
Carl Pavano(03400)
Jeff D'Amico(30222)
Julian Tavarez(12303)
Albie Lopez(0230)
Bruce Chen(03200)
Andy Benes(000)

We still have some faith in D'Amico and Lopez, and we'd like to see Pavano get a chance to close, but using anyone on this list right now is a risk. Helling should be okay when he returns from the DL.

NL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear here include Antonio Alfonseca, Armando Almanza, Mike Bacsik(24), Joe Borowski, Rheal Cormier, Mike DeJean, Jayson Durocher, Tom Gordon, Danny Graves, Matt Mantei, Jason Middlebrook(00), Jake Peavy(5045), Chris Reistma(14203), John Riedling, Joe Roa, Kirk Saarloos(000), Carlos Silva, Gene Stechschulte, T.J. Tucker, and Mike Williams. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Brian Anderson(04332), Jimmy Anderson(30103), Joe Beimel(43052), Mike Fetters, Kevin Gryboski, Joey Hamilton(13402), Matt Herges, Jason Jennings(12315), Graeme Lloyd, Braden Looper, Jose Santiago, Mike Timlin, Ron Villone(03043), and Masato Yoshii(03333).

Today's Fantasy Rx: If you need to improve your ERA or WHIP, make a move as soon as possible, even if it's only dropping your worst starter.