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June
15th
2002
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
NL LPR through 11 Weeks
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer here to see the changes made to the rating system.


Forty-three National Leaguers earned a 1 for their performance through last week. This week, six pitchers joined the list while eight departed, leaving us at forty-one.

Pitchers who joined the list include John Smoltz, Justin Speier, Vladimir Nunez, Odalis Perez, Guillermo Mota, and Dan Plesac.

Pitchers who dropped off the list include Scott Williamson(K:BB), Andy Ashby(K:BB), Javier Vazquez(HR/9), Tomokazu Ohka(K/9), Jeff D'Amico(HR/9), Mike Lincoln(H/9), Mike Williams(HR/9), and Jay Witasick(K:BB).


Please refer here if you'd like to take another look at some of our methodology.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.


Here is the sixth set of 2002 in-season LPR ratings, which include all games played through June 13th. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.


1234
abxy - Brian Lawrence(45555)

Robb Nen


123
Jason Isringhausen
Jose Mesa
Billy Wagner


124
bcyz - Al Leiter(33033)

Justin Speier


234
abcxyz - Randy Johnson(52454)

Juan Cruz(41005)
Jeremy Fikac
Luis Pineda
Felix Rodriguez


12
abcxyz - Curt Schilling(55554)
abx - Roy Oswalt(43414)
by - Jason Schmidt(04555)

Vladimir Nunez
Mike Remlinger
John Smoltz
Dave Weathers


13
Byung-Hyun Kim
Dan Plesac
Steve Reed
Luis Vizcaino


14
Trevor Hoffman
Scott Strickland
Gabe White


23
abcxy - Kerry Wood(44244)
by - Brad Penny(23040)

Octavio Dotel
Kyle Farnsworth
Jeff Fassero
Nick Neugebauer(42451)
Carlos Zambrano


24
z - Britt Reames(00)


34
bcxyz - Greg Maddux(33353)
acyz - Kevin Brown(45420)

Jose Acevedo(51030)
Chad Fox
Dave Veres


1
axyz - A.J. Burnett(35444)
axy - Kevin Jarvis(43444)
axy - Pedro Astacio(42354)
axz - Jeff D'Amico(55505)
bxy - Matt Morris(02355)
ax - Odalis Perez(30445)
ax - Omar Daal(55420)
ax - Vicente Padilla(43343)
xz - Matt Clement(55533)

Mike Crudale(0)
Jason Middlebrook(00)
Brian Boehringer
Alan Embree
Eric Gagne
Darren Holmes
T.J. Mathews
Kent Mercker
Guillermo Mota
Mike Myers
Scott Sauerbeck
Scott Stewart
Tim Worrell


2
abxyz - Javier Vazquez(42352)
bcxyz - Darryl Kile(44300)
bxyz - Randy Wolf(42442)
bxy - Russ Ortiz(52145)
bxy - Tony Armas, Jr.(43323)

Nelson Cruz
Jose Jimenez
Steve Kline
Kerry Ligtenberg
Scott Sullivan


3
bxyz - Jon Lieber(33413)
by - Ruben Quevedo(55551)

Tim Redding(54000)

Jason Bere(13455)
Ryan Jensen(41033)
Jose Cabrera(04)
Pedro Borbon
Giovanni Carrara
Joey Eischen
Mike Matthews
Paul Quantrill
Jay Witasick


4
b - Bud Smith(31001)
y - Ben Sheets(52320)

Kris Benson(50020)
Doug Brocail
Vic Darensbourg
Aaron Fultz
Greg Swindell
Scott Williamson


a
cxyz - Woody Williams(54234)
xyz - Tom Glavine(45354)
x - Tomokazu Ohka(45453)
x - Mark Prior(55055)
x - Josh Beckett(25500)


b
cyz - Wade Miller(41015)
cy - Hideo Nomo(15423)
y - Steve Trachsel(53443)
y - John Thomson(42031)
Terry Adams(24303)


c
xyz - Ryan Dempster(13303)
xy - Robert Person(33354)
yz - Kevin Millwood(35044)
z - Glendon Rusch(01433)
Rick Ankiel


x
yz - Livan Hernandez(15452)
yz - Denny Neagle(50322)
yz - Elmer Dessens(30323)
y - Shawn Chacon(23443)
z - Rick Helling(42314)
z - Jamey Wright(05233)
Kip Wells(43424)
Dennis Stark(35224)
Damian Moss(34305)
Miguel Batista(04253)
Carlos Hernandez(34420)
Brett Tomko(05341)
Jason Simontacchi(14232)
Josh Fogg(30422)
Kazuhisa Ishii(23340)
Kirk Rueter(22420)


y
z - Shane Reynolds(42300)
Jason Marquis(35144)
Brandon Duckworth(02304)
Brian Tollberg(32320)
Nelson Figueroa(30032)
Sean Lowe(0)
Darren Dreifort


z
Shawn Estes(44122)
Carl Pavano(40340)
Julian Tavarez(33333)
Mike Hampton(30211)
Albie Lopez(023)
Bruce Chen(00320)
Andy Benes(000)


NL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear here include Antonio Alfonseca, Armando Benitez, Joe Borowski, Ricky Bottalico, Mark Corey, Mike DeJean, Danny Graves, Jason Jennings(03534), Bobby J. Jones(02440), Satoru Komiyama, Mike Lincoln, Chris Reistma(51035), John Riedling, Kirk Saarloos, Jose Santiago, Gene Stechschulte, and Mike Williams. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Brian Anderson(53241), Jimmy Anderson(31031), Zach Day, Mike Fetters, Joey Hamilton(00431), Jimmy Haynes(24324), Matt Herges, Graeme Lloyd, Braden Looper, Kevin Olsen(30450), Oliver Perez, Mike Timlin, T.J. Tucker, and Ron Villone(03043).


Today's Fantasy Rx: San Francisco could be the source of some nice fantasy sleepers in most leagues. Damon Minor has started raking recently, and he could grab substantial playing time at 1B. If Tom Goodwin manages to avoid the next roster purge, he offers definite SB potential. AAA starter Kurt Ainsworth, lauded here a few times in the past, will return if anyone suffers an injury. Finally, Tim Worrell has replaced Felix Rodriguez as Nen's top setup man; he'll likely close if Nen suffers an injury. However Felix Rodriguez, after a poor April, has regained his control since the beginning of May with an 18:8 K:BB in 16.1 IP over 17 G with 19 H and 3 HR. While the homers and elevated hit rate are problematic, he at least seems to have fixed his command problems after a 8:7 K:BB in April. Any of these players is a great pickup if you can stash them on your bench, and Minor and Worrell can contribute to NL-only teams immediately.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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