Today's Fantasy Rx

Please refer here to see the changes made to the rating system.

Forty-two National Leaguers earned a 1 for their performance through last week. This week, six pitchers joined the list while nine departed, including former 1234abcxyz anchor Randy Johnson.

Pitchers who joined the list include Chris Nichting, Pedro Astacio, Alan Embree, Jason Middlebrook, Jay Witasick, and Woody Williams.

Pitchers who dropped off the list include Randy Johnson(HR/9), John Thomson(H/9), Andy Ashby(K:BB), Paul Quantrill(H/9), Ben Sheets(H/9), Javier Vazquez(HR/9), Brandon Duckworth(H/9, HR/9), Mike Fetters(K:BB), Gene Stechschulte(HR/9)

Please refer here if you'd like to take another look at some of our methodology.

LPR Code Description
1 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- thus far in 2002
2 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the second half of 2001
3 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- in the first half of 2001
4 - K:BB of 2.0+, K/9 of 6.0+, HR/9 of 1.0-, and H/9 of 9.0- for all of 2000

a - DOM of 55% or more in 2002
b - DOM of 55% or more in 2001
c - DOM of 55% or more in 2000
x - DIS of 20% or less in 2002
y - DIS of 20% or less in 2001
z - DIS of 20% or less in 2000

(Note: I used the PQS logs from Baseball Forecaster to create these ratings, and I strongly recommend that you purchase a copy if you haven't already.

Here is the fourth set of 2002 in-season LPR ratings, which include all games played through May 31st. We ranked pitchers by the highest LIMA rating and then by the best PQS rating. Starting pitchers, if necessary, are ranked by their performance over their last five starts, which I include after the pitchers name in chronological order, ending with his most recent appearance.

1234
Robb Nen

Nen remains the sole perfect LIMA pitcher due to Randy's sudden proclivity towards homers.

123
Jason Isringhausen
Jose Mesa
Billy Wagner

All closers so far, as these three and Nen have established themselves as slightly more consistently effective than even Kim or Hoffman.

124
abcxyz - Al Leiter(44433)

We finally went out and traded for Leiter in our H2H points' league, and we're really looking forward to consistent 3-4 pts/week from this unheralded ace.

234
abcxyz - Randy Johnson(35524)
abxy - Brian Lawrence(40345)

Juan Cruz(41005)
Jeremy Fikac
Luis Pineda
Felix Rodriguez

One of these pitchers is definitely not like the others as I expect Randy to move back up this list by next week. Lawrence's continued effectiveness remains a pleasant surprise, and he'll stay on our Challenge teams for the foreseeable future due to his solid skills and fantastic salary. Take advantage of Cruz's temporary demotion to add him to your team at reduced cost but likely avoid the other three until they begin pitching more consistently.

12
abcxyz - Curt Schilling(55455)
abx - Roy Oswalt(53543)

Mike Remlinger
Dave Weathers

We're quite fond of these four pitchers; seek to acquire any of them for immediate ERA/WHIP help.

13
Byung-Hyun Kim
Steve Reed
Luis Vizcaino
Jay Witasick

Witasick's back on while Quantrill falls off, although Reed and Vizcaino especially look like solid sleepers to acquire at the moment.

14
Trevor Hoffman
Scott Strickland
Gabe White
Scott Williamson

Sheets' problems leave us with just the four relievers here, although Strickland's value seems to be increasing as he's now saved a couple of games for New York.

23
bcxy - Kerry Wood(54442)
by - Brad Penny(23040)

Octavio Dotel
Kyle Farnsworth
Jeff Fassero
Josias Manzanillo
Nick Neugebauer(42451)

Considering Fassero's continued struggles, you should likely avoid everyone here but Wood or Dotel.

24
z - Britt Reames(0)
Justin Speier

Reames' solid three-inning start gives us hope where we own him since he showed promise as a starter back in 2000; the most impressive aspect of his start was that he didn't allow a single hit.

34
bcxyz - Greg Maddux(54333)
acyz - Kevin Brown(45420)

Jose Acevedo(51030)
Chad Fox
Dave Veres

Even Maddux seems risky here, although Fox might be in line for some saves if he comes back strong.

1
acxyz - Woody Williams(05542)
axy - Kevin Jarvis(43444)
axy - Pedro Astacio(45423)
axz - Jeff D'Amico(50555)
bxy - Matt Morris(55302)
ax - Vicente Padilla(35343)
xz - Matt Clement(03355)
x - Carlos Hernandez(35344)

Williams' return from injury has been a pleasant surprise since we'd worried about lingering problems, but everyone else here save Jarvis is a better bet due to their consistency over the entire season.

Omar Daal(554)
Mike Crudale(0)
Brian Boehringer
Alan Embree
Eric Gagne
Darren Holmes
T.J. Mathews
Kent Mercker
Mike Myers
Chris Nichting
Scott Sauerbeck
Scott Stewart
Mike Williams
Tim Worrell

Daal's starting to really look like a solid pickup, although Embree, Sauerbeck, and Stewart will likely provide nearly as much help for far less in return.

I'm not sure if anyone else has discussed this subject yet, but Gagne seems set to challenge Bobby Thigpen's single-season record 57 saves. He has 18 saves in only 58 games, putting him on pace for 50 right now, and with Green and Jordan finally hitting decently, I see no reason why can't maintain or exceed that pace to finish 2nd all-time with at least 54 saves.

Los Angeles is also perfectly designed to allow this possibility as they have six solid starters who will usually give them a chance to win, a fairly weak lineup unlikely to severely outscore opponents, and a fairly balanced bullpen that can maintain leads after the starters falter. Gagne also seems capable of pitching a few times each week since he's used to pitching many more innings in a season, so while we expect the necessary amount of usage will leave him very susceptible to an injury next season, he's a definite stud for the remainder of 2002.

2
abcxyz - Darryl Kile(22344)
abxyz - Javier Vazquez(45423)
abxy - Tony Armas, Jr.(44143)
bxyz - Randy Wolf(43424)
bxy - Russ Ortiz(34521)
by - Jason Schmidt(00504)

Nelson Cruz
Jose Jimenez
Steve Kline
Kerry Ligtenberg
Vladimir Nunez
John Smoltz
Scott Sullivan

I'm at least slightly concerned about every pitcher in this section except Vazquez. Kile's K:BB is weak, Armas hasn't shown enough consistency, and even Ortiz keeps mixing in occasional disasters, leaving his qualitative numbers above preferred levels. Nunez may be a safer bet than the Jimenez or Smoltz, so consider adding him if his owner shows an unfortunate predilection towards Braden Looper.

3
bxyz - Jon Lieber(24334)
by - Ruben Quevedo(03555)
a - Tim Redding(54354)

Jason Bere(32414)
Ryan Jensen(34410)
Jose Cabrera(04)
Pedro Borbon
Giovanni Carrara
Joey Eischen
Mike Matthews
Dan Plesac
Paul Quantrill

Quantrill swapped spots with Witasick this week, and he's likely also the safest pitcher on this list. Bere's started pitching better now that he appears set to lose his rotation slot after any bad start, Redding continues to excel while Quevedo's running a great streak, and Plesac is a nice addition for those looking for a very cheap reliever to help their LIMA staff. The main trouble spot here is Jensen, who's simply pitched terribly in his last two starts; we're looking to move away from him and towards Ainsworth, who's pitching wonderfully in a much worse ballpark at AAA Fresno.

4
xy - Ben Sheets(53552)
b - Bud Smith(3100)

Kris Benson(0500)
Doug Brocail
Vic Darensbourg
Aaron Fultz
Greg Swindell

Sheets deserves a higher place on the list but we definitely recommend him in any league. You should likely avoid these other pitchers, including Benson, until they show more consistency.

a
bxy - John Thomson(24342)
xyz - A.J. Burnett(52354)
xyz - Tom Glavine(22345)
x - Tomokazu Ohka(24245)
x - Damian Moss(42334)
x - Josh Beckett(32550)
x - Odalis Perez(35304)
Joey Hamilton(35004)

Ohka's starting to look very impressive, but even single disasters don't dull our support of Beckett or Perez. We certainly recommend everyone on this list except Hamilton, and we'd even consider giving him a chance if we could sit him against strong offensive teams.

b
cy - Hideo Nomo(20145)
cyz - Wade Miller(0410)
x - Terry Adams(05243)
y - Steve Trachsel(13353)

Four high-risk, high-upside pitchers, any of whom would help most teams, although we'd remain cautious if we weren't allowed to taxi them at leisure. Only Nomo appears a safe bet almost every week.

c
xyz - Ryan Dempster(45513)
xy - Robert Person(43433)
yz - Kevin Millwood(34035)
z - Glendon Rusch(03404)
Rick Ankiel

Rusch is still our favorite pick from this group, although I see little to dislike about Millwood or Dempster.

x
yz - Shane Reynolds(43423)
yz - Denny Neagle(34503)
yz - Elmer Dessens(43330)
yz - Livan Hernandez(33015)
y - Shawn Chacon(32344)
z - Rick Helling(52423)
z - Carl Pavano(30403)
Kip Wells(35434)
Josh Fogg(55304)
Miguel Batista(45304)
Andy Ashby(24353)
Bobby J. Jones(53024)
Brett Tomko(43205)
Kirk Rueter(41224)
Dennis Tankersley(34240)
Kazuhisa Ishii(43323)

Fogg, Tomko, and Ishii are my favorite plays here, although Reynolds, Helling, Ashby, and Tankersley all are fully capable of dominating any given game. All the others here are fairly risky gambles.

y
Jason Marquis(13514)
Brandon Duckworth(50230)
Brian Tollberg(32320)
Nelson Figueroa(33300)
Sean Lowe(0)
Darren Drefort

Only Marquis seems particularly safe here, but we'll certainly continue to use Duckworth as we expect him to recover from his current slump.

z
Mike Hampton(24430)
Shawn Estes(24412)
Jamey Wright(052)
Albie Lopez(023)
Julian Tavarez(20033)
Bruce Chen(00320)
Andy Benes(000)

Hampton may be the best choice among this group, although we like the season-long upside of Lopez and Chen. I don't see any logical reason to own the others, as Estes in particular remains on our must-deal list.

NL pitchers I recommend despite their failure to appear here include Antonio Alfonseca, Armando Benitez, Joe Borowski, Ricky Bottalico, Mike DeJean, Danny Graves, Jason Jennings(45035), Jason Middlebrook, Mark Prior(55), Chris Reistma(43510), Jason Simontacchi(4142), Gene Stechschulte, and T.J. Tucker. Please recognize that these are fairly risky or unproven players, but most aren't missing much to at least pick up a 1 rating fairly soon.

Other frequently owned pitchers who you probably shouldn't deploy right now include Jimmy Anderson, Dave Coggin(02040), Mike Fetters, Matt Herges, Graeme Lloyd, Braden Looper, Dave Mlicki(05300), Jose Rijo(10240), Grant Roberts, Garrett Stephenson(00330), Mike Timlin, and Ron Villone(03043).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Only five National League starters have assembled three perfectly dominant 5 starts in a row at any point this year: Jeff D'Amico(currently; 8DOM/1DUL/1DIS), Carlos Hernandez(once; 6/3/1), Randy Johnson(twice; 10/2), Ruben Quevedo(currently; 4/3/4), and Glendon Rusch(once; 6/2/3).

Of this group, Randy will likely cost two of your best players in trade, and most owners should be familiar with the success of D'Amico and Hernandez, especially considering their relatively solid track records. Even Rusch should be mildly expensive despite his recent HR problems that included the Shawn Green game.

However Quevedo is currently red hot. His year-long numbers of a 1.3 K:BB, 5.9 K/9, 8.4 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, and a .51 G-F don't exactly impress me, but over his last three starts, he's gone 2-0 on 21:6 K:BB in 25.2 IP with 16 H, 1 HR, and an 18-36 G-F. We're no longer looking to drop him in any of our leagues and even are considering trying to acquire him in one or two places.

One qualification to his great recent performance: they occurred against the Cubs and then two straight against the Padres; aside from Pittsburgh, these are the two worst offenses in the NL. We certainly remain confident in Quevedo's future and will continue to deploy him, but you shouldn't deal your more consistent starters for him right now as his hot streak his only guaranteed to likely last through his next game against the Cubs.