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May 23rd 2002 |
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Your Daily Fantasy Rx |
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by Tim Polko
Arizona: Miguel Batista, RH Swingman Batista's started since Stottlemyre and Brian Anderson ran into their normal problems, and his current 5-start 34530 PQS log certainly displays his potential upside in the rotation. I'm still concerned about his overall skill level, but he's definitely improving in K:BB(1.83 '02; 1.40 career) and K/9(6.7 '02; 6.0 career). Solid H/9(9.9 '02; 9.2 career), HR/9(.4 '02; 1.0 career), and G-F(1.31 '02; 1.48 career) ratios also make him a decent target to acquire if you need innings and a pitcher who at least isn't likely to hurt your qualitative numbers.
April Underachiever: Rick Helling, RH Starter
Millwood's appeared perpetually undervalued for the last few years since everyone expected him to quickly emerge as the Next Great Braves' Starter. Displays like his current 5-start 35340 PQS trend disappoint those who though he'd dominate in practically every start. However while he's not performing at his pre-1999 levels, I see nothing wrong with his current K:BB(2.2 '02; 2.7 career) or K/9(6.4 '02; 7.5 career). His H/9(9.4 '02; 8.4 career) are a little high, and maintaining his HR/9(1.0 '02; 1.0 career) average hides substantial improvement in G-F(1.43 '02; .91 career), indicating that his HR/9 soon should drop. Extra groundballs might even hurt Braves' pitchers considering their great outfield defense for flyballs. Any potential upgrade at 1B should only help reduce the team ERA. At worst, Millwood remains one of the best #3 pitchers in the league with the upside of at least a #2, so certainly acquire him if you need a very good starter for your team.
April Underachiever: John Smoltz, RH Closer
We've traced most of the Cubs' difficulties this season to a couple games wherein Baylor let Fassero face a right-handed hitter instead of turning to the available RHP in the bullpen, likely either Joe Borowski or Antonio Alfonseca. Fassero allowed a homer to Roberto Alomar on April 10th, Baylor didn't change pitchers, and Mike Piazza promptly hit a second homer. Then on April 28th, Baylor brought in Fassero in the 9th to relieve Borowski, and after allowing Grissom and Green to reach base against only one out, he let him face Brian Jordan, who promptly hit a 3-run homer. Fortunately for Fassero and his owners, Baylor appears to have learned from these errors, and recently has brought Alfonseca in during the 8th inning when needed, alleviating concerns that Fassero would continue to face top right-handers. His skills appear quite good aside from a disappearing K/9(4.9 '02; 7.5 career); I see little wrong with his K:BB(2.2 '02; 2.4 career) or H/9(8.9 '02; 8.9 career), and his HR/9(1.8 '02; .9 career) should continue to drop for most of the year, likely due to his still solid G-F(2.17 '02; 1.65 career). Wait for this improvement if you already own him, although we'll wait to add him until we see more evidence that Baylor will not use Fassero against even decent right-handed hitters.
April Underachiever: Jason Bere, RH Starter
Cincinnati's spread their wins around so far, leaving five starters with either 3 or 4 wins apiece. Hamilton's 4.6 R/G is actually in the middle of the pack of their starters, after Acevedo, Dessens, and Rijo but better than Reitsma or Haynes. Prior to his injury, he started to show starting promise with a 44350 PQS log. While his K:BB(1.3 '02; 1.8 career) remains quite bad, his other skill ratios, especially his great G-F(2.79 '02; 1.89 career), all appear solid, including his K/9(6.4 '02; 6.0 career), H/9(6.4 '02; 6.0 career), HR/9(9.3 '02; 9.3 career). If you already own him, you should probably wait to see if he'll build upon his occasionally dominant starts.
April Underachiever: Scott Williamson, RH Reliever
While I'm actually rather surprised at how effectively he's pitched this year, three wins seem very low given the rest of his numbers; his 4.8 R/G of run support only beats Shawn Chacon's 3.4 R/G on Colorado. His current 5-start 55345 PQS log is quite impressive considering his significant problems last season. Only Neagle's normal HR/9(1.6 '02; 1.1 career) keeps him from reaching LIMA status, and his best G-F(.97 '02; .88 career) mark since 1996 indicates he might finally begin controlling the longball. His K:BB(2.4 '02; 2.5 career), K/9(6.3 '02; 6.8 career), and H/9(8.1 '02; 8.9 career) remain at very acceptable levels, and as long as you can bench him for most of his Coors' starts, look to acquire Neagle if you need starting pitching.
April Underachiever: John Thomson, RH Starter
We've hesitated to add him in Challenge due to his occasional injury troubles and general lack of wins thus far. His upside remains as high as perhaps any right-hander in the league, and his 5-start 45325 PQS log is quite decent. He's also improved his command from last year to a 2.6 K:BB after 2.1 K:BB in 2001. However, he's also slightly worse in K/9(8.0 '02; 9.0 '01), H/9(6.4 '02; 5.3 '01), and HR/9(1.2 '02; 1.1 '01) while basically remaining the same in G-F(.64 '02; .60 '01) ratio. Beckett's still one of the top young pitchers in baseball, but only acquire him if you don't mind a relatively low numbers of wins.
April Underachiever: Brad Penny, RH Starter
I liked his minor league numbers and thought the Astros nicely ripped off the Giants by acquiring him for Doug Henry. Linebrink will always carry more risk than most pitchers due to his home park, although he's probably the third best Houston reliever after Wagner and Dotel. He's improved all his skill ratios this year, including his K:BB(2.0 '02; 1.3 career), K/9(6.8 '02; 6.1 career), H/9(9.5 '02; 9.6 career), HR/9(.7 '02; 1.3 career), and G-F(.68 '02; .65 career). Since he's only pitched 35.2 career innings, most of this improvement appears due to his greater experience against major league hitters, and he's definitely approaching his minor league ratios. If you need a middle reliever or injury replacement, Linebrink is a fine target to acquire.
April Underachiever: Billy Wagner, LH Closer
Only two Dodgers own ERAs worse than Giovanni Carrara's 3.68, and Jeff Williams and Terry Mulholland have still combined for a 10:6 K:BB in 16.2 IP with 27 H and 9 HR while sharing the role of the second Dodger left-handed reliever. This great team performance leaves Kevin Brown's 2 wins as the most unlikely weak stat of their pitchers. Brown's received more run support at 4.1 R/G than Odalis Perez at 3.6 R/G or Hideo Nomo at 2.7 R/G, but he's arguably pitched nearly as good as even Perez. Two wins in 8 starts seems low, and I see no reason that number won't increase in the very near future. I expect his ERA to continue dropping, as despite problems with his HR/9(1.0 '02; .6 carer) and a career-worst G-F(1.63 '02; 2.73 career), his skill ratios remain excellent, including his K:BB(3.7 '02; 2.6 career), K/9(7.6 '02; 6.6 career) and H/9(8.7 '02; 8.4 career). The Dodgers' weak offense generally will keep his wins down, but he still may be the cheapest ace for you to acquire in trade at the moment.
April Underachiever: Paul Quantrill, RH Reliever
Rusch is soundly dominating in a majority of his starts as evidenced by his current 5-start 55034 PQS log. His basic skills remain sound with his current K:BB(2.8 '02; 2.7 career), K/9(6.6 '02; 6.8 career), and HR/9(1.0 '02; 1.2 career) ratios. More importantly, he's posting career-best numbers in H/9(8.2 '02; 10.3 career) and G-F(1.67 '02; 1.19 career); he's never allowed less than a hit per inning prior to 2002, and his next-best G-F was 1.33 in 1998. If the Brewers ever develop a decent offense, Rusch should start winning many more games than the dozen he'll likely win if he continues his current pace for the rest of the year. He's still one of the most underrated pitchers normally available to acquire.
April Underachiever: Nick Neugebauer, RH Starter
The Expos simply haven't provided Vazquez with any offensive support, producing only 3.5 R/G when he starts; Tony Armas has three more wins due to 5.1 R/G of support. While Vazquez isn't striking out almost 8.4 batters each game this year, all his skills remain above average, including his K:BB(4.7 '02; 3.0 career), K/9(6.2 '02; 7.6 career), H/9(7.9 '02; 9.2 career), and HR/9(.7 '02; 1.1 career), while his G-F(1.12 '02; 1.28 career) is only slightly off his normal pace. I'm slightly concerned about the overall loss of dominance, but as long as he continually runs PQS trends like his current 5-start 54454, he'll remain one of the top starters in baseball. We can't guarantee he'll begin winning all his starts, but acquire him if you need significant help in ERA, WHIP, and likely strikeouts as well.
April Underachiever: Britt Reames, RH Reliever
I normally don't trust Estes since his command usually appears rather poor when I examine his stats. However in 2002 so far, he's managed very acceptable skills across the board. His K:BB(1.8 '02; 1.5 career) is only a little below average, and his K/9(7.0 '02; 7.2 career), H/9(9.0 '02; 8.6 career), and HR/9(.8 '02; .7 career) are all LIMA-quality. While his G-F(1.57 '02; 1.81 career) isn't up to his usual standards, he remains a definite groundball pitcher, a great asset given the Mets' excellent infield defense. A current 5-start 53244 PQS trend simply gives me more confidence in my recommendation to acquire Estes as long as you don't hurt your team elsewhere.
April Underachiever: Kane Davis, RH Reliever
Duckworth's K totals are most helpful in 5x5 leagues, but his current 5-start 33502 PQS log indicates potential problems. He only really dominated hitters at AA and AAA, neither posting great K/9 at either A-ball or last year in the majors, so his fantastic K/9(11.0 '02; 5.2 '01) is a definite surprise. His improved K:BB(2.6 '02; 1.4 '01) mostly offsets his occasional difficulties with H/9(9.4 '02; 7.4 '01) and HR/9(1.1 '02; .3 '01), the latter likely caused by an unfortunate drop in G-F(.8 '02; 1.8 '01). Duckworth is a risk due to his inconsistency in recent starts, but especially in any league that counts strikeouts, I believe he's a risk worth owning; acquire him if you need starting pitching.
April Underachiever: Randy Wolf, LH Starter
Kris Benson's return pushed him to the bullpen, a valid move considering his most recent 5-start PQS 04043 log. Of course, since moving to relief work, he's compiled a 9:3 K:BB in 9 IP over 3 G with 6 H, 1 HR, 11-9 G-F, and a 4.00 ERA. He's certainly a more capable pitcher than Joe Beimel, and although Villone will never dominate like Scott Sauerbeck, he definitely possesses some upside over the next few weeks. I'm rather pleased with his overall progress this year, and even slight problems with his normal K/9(6.5 '02; 7.0 career) and H/9(10.4 '02; 9.0 career) rates don't outbalance his improved K:BB(1.8 '02; 1.4 career), HR/9(.8 '02; 1.1 career), and G-F(1.21 '02; 1.16 career). If you're desperate for a low-risk, low-upside long reliever, I don't see any reason not to acquire Villone. However, make sure to move him before the third week of July, since he'll spend six of the following fourteen games in Houston against some great right-handed power hitters.
April Underachiever: Sean Lowe, RH Reliever
He relieved Lawrence in his first appearance and made an emergency start for the injured Bobby J. Jones in his second game. While too many homers, leading to a ridiculously high HR/9(0.0 '02; 2.8 '01), kept his ERA elevated last season, he's just been unlucky this year. I expect he'll improve as the fluke stats disappear with the increasing sample size. However, a brief glance at his skill ratios also supports the possibility for improvement, as he's either improved or is nearly maintaining his K:BB(1.7 '02; 1.0 '01), K/9(4.4 '02; 4.7 '01), H/9(8.4 '02; 8.7 '01), and G-F(1.60 '02; 1.12 '01) from last year's four games. More importantly, he pitched great at AAA, with a 2-4 record on 30:11 K:BB in 33.1 IP with 36 H and 4 HR; a 5.13 ERA seems much too high for this stat line, and the difference in parks between AAA Sacramento and San Diego might outweigh any difference between AAA and the majors. I see no reason he can't roughly hold these skills in the majors, so acquire him if you also believe his ERA will head down.
April Underachiever: Brian Tollberg, RH Starter
His current 5-start 00050 PQS belies his recovery from a strained groin, tightness in his shoulder, and an inflamed rotator cuff. Even considering these problems, an average of just over 4 IP/start and an 0-1 record seem quite improbable after Schmidt's great second half in 2001. Despite his poor stat line overall this year, aside from his weak K:BB(1.5 '02; 1.8 career), his ratios range from very good marks in K/9(8.5 '02; 7.1 career) and HR/9(.7 '02 .9 career) to at least acceptable numbers in H/9(10.4 '02; 9.4 career) and G-F(.90 '02; 1.32 '01). The Padres face some of the worst offensive teams in the majors in June, including a home week against Tampa Bay and Baltimore. I'm unwilling to deal for Schmidt until he posts a few more 5+ inning starts, but he might look very interesting if he winds up doubling against those weak AL teams; wait for the probable improvement if you already own him.
April Underachiever: Aaron Fultz, LH Reliever
He recovered from ligament transplant surgery in only 10 months but after beginning the year with an 050 PQS log, he missed a month with a lower back strain, returning to post a 03 in his first two starts. Like Schmidt, we're concerned about his K:BB(1.6 '02; 1.8 career) but impressed with his K/9(7.3 '02; 6.0 career), H/9(9.0 '02; 9.3 career), and HR/9(.8 '02; 1.2 career). Unfortunately, a low G-F(.66 '02; .94 career) tempers our HR/9 expectations, so even if he can improve his command, his ERA won't likely decrease if he starts allowing more homers, a likely occurrence if he starts pitching more than about four innings each game. These numbers demonstrate some potential, but he remains very risky and while you can hold onto him for now, begin looking for an acceptable deal.
April Underachiever: Bud Smith, LH Starter
Starters(6) No starts: Pedro, Morris, Oswalt, Lawrence
Relievers(4) Our goal this week was to deploy as many superstar offensive players as possible to try to pick up points in RBI. For the second half of this period, our Colorado platoon remains at home and therefore starting, Sosa's in Astros' Field, and Bonds visits Coors, likely the last time we'll play him this year if we drop him for Vlad on Sunday as expected. Berkman and Ward need to start since they're at home against three right-handers Gagne and Vazquez appear to be safe plays for starters, and we'll see if we can fit the other three home starts of Randy, Schilling, and Zito, along with Clemens seeking revenge, as always, in Boston. Unfortunately, even with subbing Klesko for Jason Giambi, keeping ARod and Suzuki on the bench, we're still stuck needing Jeremy Giambi. We'll solve this problem by burning another move to pick up the cheaper yet hopefully very productive Erubiel Durazo, and even save $60 in the process. We really can't start Giambi until we determine his likely playing time, although we still like his upside. We'll bench Kim since we can't afford two expensive closers and he's less likely to see save opportunities this weekend than Isringhausen. We're still over the cap, so we'll bench Randy and instead take Kerry Wood, who at least should post solid strikeout numbers in Houston. This move allows us to upgrade from Dunn to the red hot J.D. Drew, and from Klesko to Jason Giambi. We like Arizona's lefty-heavy offense much more against Kevin Brown than against Odalis Perez, but we also prefer Schilling against everyone on LA except Green. The extra offense is more important at the moment, so we'll keep Schilling active and deploy Drew for Dunn, especially since Dunn might sit one day this weekend as Bob Boone tries to fit five deserving starters into three outfield slots and first base. As we need to drop someone for Durazo, we'll cut Giambi, since we need the extra pitchers, forcing us to give up on him due to Billy Beane's obvious blunder. With Colorado spending next week on the road, hopefully we can return to a normal roster by moving ARod and Ichiro back into our lineup.
The Umpire Hunter C Jorge Posada 990 C Toby Hall 320 1B Todd Helton 1980 1B Jason Giambi 1640 2B Luis Castillo 1000 2B Alfonso Soriano 900 3B Eric Chavez 1070 3B Shea Hillenbrand 450 SS Jimmy Rollins 940 SS Juan Uribe 500 OF Larry Walker 1530 OF Juan Pierre 1180 OF Lance Berkman 1320 OF J.D. Drew 1010 OF Daryle Ward 620 OF Erubiel Durazo 440 DH Sammy Sosa 1900 DH Barry Bonds 1830
SP Curt Schilling 1540 SP Roger Clemens 1240 SP Javier Vazquez 1100 SP Barry Zito 1080 SP Kerry Wood 1050 SP Eric Gagne 500 RP Jason Isringhausen 1280 RP Mike Williams 900 RP Eddie Guardado 900 RP Jorge Julio 750
Click
here to read the previous article.
Please e-mail your comments to
tim@rotohelp.com. |
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