Today's Fantasy Rx

On our last day of discussing May trends, I'll review pitchers who, over the past five years, increase their ERA by at least 1.50 from April to May. I focused on pitchers who compiled at least a total of 40 IP in each month over the past five years.

Terry Adams, RHP, PHI: +4.46 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/45	69	46	5	61:15	4-4/3	1.17
May	0/57	64	69	7	57:34	4-5/7	5.63

02 Apr	4/4	23.1	31	2	14:11	0-3/0	5.01	

Adams' numbers from the past few years aren't especially relevant to his starting performance, but they still show a fairly close relation between his skills and stats. Given his injury problems thus far in 2002, as well as his slowly improving consistency since returning from the DL, I'd certainly at least wait to see if he'll continue to return to his form from the second half of 2001.

Dennis Cook, LHP, ANA: +4.09 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/54	52.2	31	4	46:16	10-0/0	1.71
May	0/56	45	60	8	48:21	2-6/0	5.80

02 Apr	0/9	8	4	0	2:5	0-0/0	1.12	

Though Cook's pitched quite solidly so far he won't be able to maintain even close to 1.12 with a 2:5 K:BB. Expect his May ERA to rise at least half as much as his normal increase, and he might even wind up past 5.21. He's definitely someone to deal if you currently own him.

Ugueth Urbina, RHP, BOS: +3.00 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/56	60.2	35	5	78:20	4-5/21	2.37
May	0/56	55.1	51	7	75:40	4-7/26	5.37

02 Apr	0/10	9.1	13	2	7:4	0-2/8	5.79	

Ugie's racked another four saves in May, but Boston will also be facing a much tougher schedule in the near future. His H/9 and HR/9 are too high while he's not striking out enough batters, though considering his ERA thus far, we should expect at least a small improvement. Definitely wait for the ERA help if you own him, and then look to move Urbina the first time during the summer that Boston faces tough competition for a few weeks

Jimmy Anderson, LHP, PIT: +2.57 ERA
99-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	9/9	52	59	2	34:18	3-1/0	3.46
May	11/11	59.2	72	7	29:25	1-6/0	6.03

02 Apr	5/5	28.1	26	4	10:14	2-3/0	6.04	

Anderson's displayed good April skills over the last two years before flailing for most of the rest of the season. His 2002 performance has been rather awful, and aside from acceptable H/9 and HR/9 rates, there's really nothing to like about his starts. Deal Anderson if you can pick up even a decent middle reliever in return.

Rick White, RHP, COL: +2.36 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/27	41.1	39	3	31:13	2-1/0	2.83
May	1/33	52	56	7	33:26	3-3/0	2.19

02 Apr	0/11	12.2	12	0	6:5	0-2/0	4.26	

I'm not quite prepared to recommend any Colorado relievers yet even though their starters look more interesting every week. With the Rockies beginning a thirteen-game homestand next Monday, you certainly should deal White now if he's on your roster.

Buddy Groom, LHP, BAL: +2.32 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/57	46.2	44	1	34:15	4-2/3	3.66
May	0/62	46.2	57	6	31:14	4-3/0	5.98

02 Apr	0/9	7.1	3	0	9:1	1-0/0	0.00	

His start is rather unsurprising after his very roto-friendly consistency over the past couple of years. We dealt a $6 Groom for a $12 Jeremy Giambi prior to the season in an AL 4x4, and while Giambi appears to be demonstrating a higher skill level, even this great performance from Groom thus far doesn't give him significant value without save opportunities. His ERA will certainly rise since he'll likely allow more than 3.7 H/9 this month, but I can see him keeping it under 2.50 into June, so you should wait instead of moving him at this time.

Keith Foulke, RHP, CHW: +2.25 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/41	56.1	35	4	52:18	3-2/7	1.76
May	1/47	74	58	9	72:24	0/2-13	4.01

02 Apr	0/12	12.2	16	0	9:3	0-1/6	3.55	

I'm very concerned with both his high H/9 and weaker K/9, so I definitely see a possibility of an ERA over 5.00 this month. He's still a top closer but instead of actively seeking him in trade, just wait for the saves if you already own him.

Steve Karsay, RHP, NYY: +2.20 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	5/36	71.1	64	3	63:15	3-3/4	2.14
May	6/43	85	88	9	78:21	2-6/7	4.34

02 Apr	0/12	12.2	12	1	10:4	1-0/0	3.55

We expected him to earn his rather extravagant contract by providing New York with a superb bridge from Mendoza/Stanton in the 7th to Rivera in the 9th. Apparently Torre doesn't trust Karsay yet as while his numbers have been solid and generally along expected lines, Karsay's also not dominating this year. Considering his solid history, consider a move to acquire him as long as you're not worried about recurrence of his past health problems.

Stormy Weathers, RHP, NYM: +2.18 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	4/51	84.2	77	4	65:28	6-2/4	3.08
May	5/42	75.1	84	7	59:32	4-8/2	5.26

02 Apr	0/12	15.1	10	1	14:6	2-0/2	2.35

Watch his H/9 and K:BB very closely and be ready to deal Weathers if you see his skills headed towards his May norms. He should still be a solid setup man for most of the year, although don't expect these currently impressive ratios to continue.

Todd Ritchie, RHP, CHW: +2.10 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	11/23	82.6	86	5	55:29	3-7/0	3.32
May	16/23	103	112	17	59:48	5-8/0	5.42

02 Apr	6/6	38.2	31	2	26:15	2-2/0	3.03

Look to deal Ritchie now, since aside from a great H/9, he's performing close to his April standards. I think he can keep his ERA under 5.00 barring any disastrous outings, but you also shouldn't expect him to maintain his pace.

Jose Santiago, RHP, PHI: +2.10 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/30	47	38	3	25:10	4-2/2	3.26
May	0/30	45.1	51	6	24:17	4-5/1	5.36

02 Apr	0/11	12	17	1	7:5	1-1/0	9.00	

He'll likely see a trip to AAA before Philadelphia allows him to post a 11.10 ERA in May after a very poor April. Bowa's struggled to find reliable middle relief, and while Santiago's history suggests he should have been fine in April, he's not roster-worthy at this point. Drop or deal him if he's still on your deepest rosters since he's unlikely to improve significantly for another month.

John Smoltz, RHP, ATL: +2.05 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	14/14	96	84	5	85:24	8:3/0	2.16
May	17/17	107	109	10	87:27	8-5/0	4.21

02 Apr	0/11	12.2	14	1	14:4	0-1/7	6.39	

His poor ERA is again the result of one disastrous outing; his skills look fine and he's unlikely to see a similar ERA jump since his starting stats don't really apply to his bullpen work. I consider Smoltz to possess perhaps the highest upside of any reliever in the National League given the roster composition of the Braves, so look to acquire him if you need a closer.

Scott Schoeneweis, LHP, ANA: +1.93 ERA
99-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	11/19	90	78	7	40:35	6-2/0	3.40
May	10/19	76	86	5	30:31	3-4/0	5.33

02 Apr	5/5	30.1	35	5	17:13	1-3/0	6.53	

I finally grabbed Schoeneweis in one league this year hoping to ride his great April and then deal him for a slow starter. Considering his 2002 skill level, I've already dumped him in favor of rostering Matt Wise, who's currently a better pitcher in any role than Schoeneweis. You should certainly attempt to deal him to a team needing IP before he loses his roster spot altogether.

Tom Glavine, LHP, ATL: +1.85 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	28/28	196.1	162	12	124:64	18-4/0	2.57
May	27/27	175	177	22	124:66	9-11/0	4.42

02 Apr	6/6	40.1	31	1	29:12	4-1/0	0.89

A spectacular rebound after a very mortal 2001, Glavine appeared to re-establish himself as the second premier lefty in the game after Randy Johnson. Glavine will never be a great strikeout pitcher, and considering his unusually low K/9 and HR/9, expect his ERA to shoot up the normal amount to at least 2.74. If you're at all concerned about his approaching letdown, deal him now as his value has peaked.

Albie Lopez, RHP, ATL: +1.78 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	8/42	105.2	118	10	56:63	4-6/0	4.43
May	9/33	79.2	93	12	47:32	4-6/2	6.21

02 Apr	2/3	11.1	11	0	6:7	1-2/0	3.97

A move to the bullpen leaves the Braves with rotation depth but a potentially very effective pitcher wasted in long relief. Unfortunately he's walked far too many batters this year to remain a trusted part of our roto teams, although we're leaving him stashed on our bench since we like his starting potential. If you can afford the roster spot, wait for Lopez's almost inevitable promotion back into the rotation.

Steve Reed, RHP, SD: +1.76 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	0/51	55.1	41	5	37:21	3-1/0	2.44
May	0/62	55.2	51	9	50:24	2-2/7	4.20

02 Apr	0/8	9	6	1	12:0	0-1/0	2.00	

The Righty-killer continues to dominate in middle relief. He's another of the rather select group of pitchers who won't really help your team all that much, but also will post a consistently positive single-digit value. Acquire him only if you need inexpensive roster filler and no similarly safe pitchers with more upside are available.

Steve Woodard, RHP, TEX: +1.71 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	11/17	82.1	92	11	49:24	4-5/0	4.04
May	14/20	92.1	117	8	60:22	4-6/0	5.75

02 Apr	0/9	11.2	9	2	10:3	0-0/0	3.86	

I've liked Woodard's potential since Milwaukee first promoted him to their rotation, and despite his normally elevated home run rate and ERA difficulties, I still believe he has the potential to post a $20 season at some point. We've owned him briefly in a couple leagues this year since he remains a relatively safe pitcher to acquire if you're looking for someone with decent qualitative numbers and a good chance at vulturing some wins once Texas starts hitting.

Donne Wall, RHP, ANA: +1.69 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	1/28	44.2	35	4	29:20	2-4/0	3.43
May	3/40	65	58	9	36:28	5-4/0	5.12

02 Apr	0/9	11.2	13	3	7:6	0-0/0	9.24	

Wall's on the DL with tightness in his right arm, but I don't see any reason to grab him even when healthy. While he's been a very capable middle reliever for roto teams in the past, his current skill level prevents any action other than moving him off your roster now since I doubt anyone would deal for him.

Rick Reed, RHP, MIN: +1.57 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	21/22	152	118	14	93:23	10-4/0	2.25
May	27/28	176.2	173	15	124:30	10-5/0	3.82

02 Apr	5/5	26.2	29	5	13:8	2-1/0	3.71

Reed's the anchor of my AL team, so you can probably tell I need pitching help. His K:BB is far weaker than usual, and his normal May ERA jump would leave me really hurting for pitching help. I don't see a need to move him since I don't think he'll jump past a 5.00 this month, although keep watch on his potentially falling ratios since you likely won't be able to wait until the deadline to move him.

Dan Reichert, RHP, KC: +1.54 ERA
99-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	5/14	46.2	35	3	35:23	4-1/0	3.09
May	6/16	56.1	60	5	34:35	4-6/0	4.63

02 Apr	5/5	28.2	38	5	19:11	0-3/0	6.59	

I recognize that I hold most Royals' pitching to very low standards, but I see general improvement in Reichert thus far. I've read a couple columnists who believe Reichert's place on the G-F leader charts indicates that the statistic means nothing. Instead of illogically dismissing a relevant metric, I instead understand that Reichert's only hope to emerge as a decent pitcher is to continue avoiding flyballs and homers while improving his command. He'll likely need another year or two before you can trust him on your team, and if I had an open roster spot in a deep AL league, I'd certainly attempt to stash him away while we wait for that likely development.

Aaron Sele, RHP, ANA: +1.54 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	25/26	151.1	157	15	91:55	17-3/0	3.27
May	29/29	177.2	194	20	122:59	14-9/0	4.81

02 Apr	5/5	28.2	42	5	14:8	1-2/0	5.65	

Sele's fallen into roto mediocrity fairly quickly, and his continually weak skill ratios only suggest that he'll be able to keep his ERA around its current levels instead of seeing it rise above 7.00. I'd likely look to deal him if we could receive even a decent fifth starter in return since all Sele guarantees you are double-digit wins barring the lasting absence of a solid Anaheim offense.

Chris Carpenter, RHP, TOR: +1.51 ERA
97-01	GS/G	IP	H	HR	K:BB	W-L/S	ERA
April	16/20	112.1	96	14	83:41	7-5/0	3.77
May	21/27	151.2	196	20	108:55	6-10/0	5.28

02 Apr	2/2	5.1	10	5	5:7	0-1/0	15.19	

Carpenter only made two starts before his right shoulder tendinitis forced him on the DL. While he could rejoin the rotation as early as late May, he also could easily continue to struggle the rest of the year. His ERA shouldn't go up any further but I don't expect anything below 5.00 this year, so look to deal him to a rebuilding team wherever you own him.

Normally wilting pitchers who've spent the season either on the DL or in the minors include Pat Mahomes(+3.38), Mike Mohler(+3.24), Chris Peters(+3.20), Esteban Loiaza(+2.86), Mike Trombley(+2.19), Mac Suzuki(+1.97), Kent Bottenfield(+1.93), Rick Ankiel(+1.80), and Dustin Hermanson(+1.58).

Today's Fantasy Rx: Our 2002 Top Pitching Sleeper returned to the majors due to Joey Hamilton's injury. In his first major league appearance out of the bullpen, Jose Acevedo posted a 1:1 K:BB in 1.2 IP with 1 H, 0 HR, and a 2-0 G-F ratio. At AAA Louisville, he pitched three very decent games, compiling a 1-2 record on 17:6 K:BB in 19 IP with 19 H, 1 HR, and a 3.32 ERA. He'll likely return to the rotation on Tuesday, taking Hamilton's place in Milwaukee against Ben Sheets, and then he should face either Bud Smith, Travis Smith, or a recovering Cardinals' starter at home against St. Louis a week from Sunday. While we're waiting at least one start in leagues with mid-week transaction deadline, we're using him wherever possible for the double start in leagues with a standard Monday through Sunday lineup week. Acevedo retains significant upside, and I again recommend him as a target to acquire, although please understand that starting him in either of next week's appearances is a risk, albeit a risk we're willing to take with you.