Yesterday I began to review our preseason standings projections and offer our playoff forecast now that the postseason teams are set. After reviewing the AL yesterday, I'll cover our NL projections today, also including our predictions for the National League Pennant and World Series.

We formulated our initial record forecasts by adjusting last season's records after discussing player and management changes, keeping in mind the formula for Pythagorean wins. However that left us with many more games won than lost, so we went back and subtracted where we saw fit, primarily leaning against projecting huge disparities between the top and bottom teams. In retrospect, we would have been much better off decreasing the records of the worst teams.

National League East		Rotohelp Prediction
Actual	Team	Record			Record
1st	ATL	101-59		1st	90-72
2nd	MON	83-79		5th	67-95
3rd	PHI	80-81		2nd	86-76
4th	FLO	79-83		3rd	80-82
5th	NYM	75-86		4th	76-86

Atlanta's bullpen kept them in games despite a merely average offense and occasionally inconsistent starting pitching. Meanwhile, Montreal's pitching exceeded expectations even without the addition of Bartolo Colon. The Expos also received better than expected offense from a few players. Philadelphia found little production from any infielder besides Scott Rolen, but after cutting loose pitching coach Vern Ruhle following his successes with Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla, hopefully the Phillies will also push Larry Bowa out the door. More than any other team in the division, Philadelphia requires a manager who understand the importance of fielding the best possible offense.

National League Central		Rotohelp Prediction
Actual	Team	Record			Record
1st	STL	97-65		1st	95-67
2nd	HOU	84-78		WC	89-73
3rd	CIN	78-84		4th	73-89
4th	PIT	72-89		6th	59-73
5th	CHC	67-95		3rd	88-74
6th	MIL	56-106		5th	71-84

The Cardinals admirably managed to surpass our expectations despite all of their troubles this year. I blame Jimy Williams' managerial distribution of playing time for the Astros falling short of our predictions. The Pirates' plundering of the White Sox provided them with an impressive young rotation, boosting them significantly above our pre-season projections; they also assembled the fourth best bullpen in the league. Only the Red Sox were as many games below their Pythagorean Projection(8) as the Cubs, who suffered through the worst management in the majors this year and which seemed to affect the performance of everyone on the team. Milwaukee lost several players to debilitating injuries and only the development of Richie Sexson, Ben Sheets, Alex Sanchez, and Luis Vizcaino gives Brewers' fans much hope for the immediate future.

National League West			Rotohelp Prediction
Actual	Team	Record			Record
1st	ARI	98-64		1st	88-74
WC	SF	95-66		2nd	86-76
3rd	LA	92-70		3rd	83-79
4th	COL	73-89		5th	78-84
5th	SD	66-96		4th	81-81

We expected excellence from Randy and Schilling, but who expected the Diamondbacks to have the best offense in the NL? The NL West seemed to grow tired of hearing of their AL companions' feats and decided to put on their own division/Wild Card race. San Francisco improved on the strength of Bonds' matching his production from last season while Jeff Kent, Jason Schmidt, and an excellent bullpen propelled them to the Wild Card. Jim Tracy used his players well, taking advantage of shocking seasons by several players, including Dave Roberts, Alex Cora, Odalis Perez, and Eric Gagne, to lead the Dodgers to the edge of the playoffs. At least Colorado's managerial change seemed to reinvigorate the team, but the Rockies still need to commit to specific players at every position but 1B and potentially right field if they don't shop Larry Walker. San Diego's injury-induced impatience with their young pitchers led to a meltdown on a team we expected to perform similarly to the Blue Jays. Healthy seasons from Phil Nevin, Wiki Gonzalez, and Sean Burroughs should help them approach .500 in 2003.

St. Louis at Arizona: Every profile of Schilling focuses on the pressures he places on himself, and since he seemed to be in a bad place mentally in the last week of the season, I think there's an opening for the Cardinals. The loss of Luis Gonzalez also severely damages the Diamondbacks' offense. However Woody Williams isn't available to pitch for St. Louis and they have a number of less than healthy players. Arizona in 4.

San Francisco at Atlanta: The Braves' pitching can be cracked and their mediocre offense won't tax a Giants' staff bereft of established aces. San Francisco's bats should be able to take the series. San Francisco in 4.

San Francisco at Arizona: The Giants have the ability to wear away at the Diamondbacks' weaknesses and can best Arizona as long as they draw out the series. San Francisco in 7.

World Series Forecast
San Francisco at Oakland: San Francisco will be able to take two games on the strength of a Barry Bonds' explosion in his first World Series and Livan Hernandez's playoff pitching. However the A's are a superior team on almost every level. Oakland in 6.