Prior to the start of postseason play, I want to review our preseason standings projections and offer our playoff forecast now that the playoff teams are set. I'll begin by covering our AL projections today and include our predictions for the American League Pennant before covering the NL and our projected World Series winner tomorrow.

We formulated our initial record forecasts by adjusting last season's records after discussing player and management changes, keeping in mind the formula for Pythagorean wins. However that left us with many more games won than lost, so we went back and subtracted where we saw fit, primarily leaning against projecting huge disparities between the top and bottom teams. In retrospect, we would have been much better off decreasing the records of the worst teams.

American League East		Rotohelp Prediction
Actual	Team	Record			Record
1st	NYY	103-58		1st	99-63
2nd	BOS	93-69		2nd	90-72
3rd	TOR	78-84		3rd	79-83
4th	BAL	67-95		4th	67-95
5th	TB	55-106		5th	60-102

Our predictions held fairly true in this division, though in recent years the AL East hasn't given prognosticators many problems. We were convinced that Derek Lowe would have a poor or at least shortened season, moving from the bullpen into the rotation, and therefore low-balled the Red Sox projections. Had Boston been better managed and approached their Pythagorean wins, which they missed by 8, we would have been even farther off-target.

American League Central		Rotohelp Prediction
Actual	Team	Record			Record
1st	MIN	94-67		2nd	83-79
2nd	CHW	81-81		1st	85-77
3rd	CLE	74-88		3rd	81-81
4th	KC	62-100		5th	65-97
5th	DET	55-106		4th	67-95

We liked Minnesota but we expected more of the White Sox and underestimated the Twin's excellent position to continue improving; Minnesota defied the Plexiglas Principle due to both the quantity and quality of young Twins simultaneously reaching their primes. The White Sox came in six games below their Pythagorean, and we expected Joe Crede to be in the majors for most of the season, so his presence in the minors likely cost Chicago a few wins. We're also still waiting for them to acquire another starter to help the rotation. With Cleveland, we didn't expect the franchise to be open to dumping mid-season. Obviously, both the Royals and Tigers managed to perform even below our low expectations.

American League West		Rotohelp Prediction
Actual	Team	Record			Record
1st	OAK	103-59		1st	98-64
WC	ANA	99-63		4th	84-78
3rd	SEA	93-69		WC	95-67
4th	TEX	72-90		3rd	87-75

Our projections for Texas incorporated ordinary injury troubles, but the Rangers were decimated by health problems this year. For the first four months of the season, every pitcher who touched the closer role received a ticket to the DL. While Juan Gonzalez and Carl Everett have a history of injury problems, we didn't think both would have serious troubles and I could continue this list almost indefinitely. Even with only minor off-season changes, if the have a healthy team, the Rangers should rebound in 2003. Seattle performed similarly to our expectations, losing a couple more games largely due to Jeff Cirillo's disastrous season. As for Anaheim, they were gifted with good health, received career seasons from a number of players, and instead of facing three superior division rivals, they were able to roll over the Rangers, against whom they were 12-7. They also especially dominated the weaker teams in the league, combining for a 23-4 record against Baltimore, Detroit, and Tampa Bay for an absurd .852 winning percentage.

Anaheim at New York: New York has a stronger starting staff than Anaheim and should suppress their offense. The Angels' good health also ran out right before the playoffs, leaving them vulnerable to experienced postseason players. New York in 4.

Minnesota at Oakland: Oakland is 6-3 against the Twins this season. The A's have more playoff experience and better pitching. Minnesota also struggles against left-handers and needs to face both Mark Mulder and Barry Zito. However, I don't like the way that Oakland's set their playoff rotation, and the Metrodome won't be a fun place for visitors. Oakland in 5.

Oakland at New York, Oakland in 6: While the Yankees were good this year, several of their players are beginning to show wear and tear after a long season. Meanwhile the A's are hot, healthy, and holding a grudge.