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June
16th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 NL LPR: Week 11

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 13th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
23ABXY - John Smoltz(54504)
3ACXZ - Jake Peavy(55424)
AX - Sean Marshall(44454)
BX - Brad Penny(34355)
A - Ian Snell(14545)
X - Aaron Harang(43535)
Sergio Mitre(34405)

Sean Marshall's quick rise to the top here simply wows me. Apparently he only needed to return to full health to begin employing some of the lessons Greg Maddux taught him last spring. Penny also replaces Wolf up here as the Dodgers' ace once again ranks among the NL's best first-half pitchers.

abcxyz - Francisco Cordero(5545534335)
abcxz - Heath Bell(5555544433)
acxz - Jason Isringhausen(3345251453)
ax - David Borkowski(3552434434)

No NL closer can challenge Francisco Cordero in overall value this year, and given his impressive skill set, he could remain here all season long. Isringhausen's leap to this level seems more unsustainable, and due to his inconsistency, he soon could match Saul Rivera's drop back down this ranking.


2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(33424)
3BCYZ - Chris Carpenter(3)
ABCXYZ - Brandon Webb(35544)
by - Adam Wainwright(44423)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(3413344340)
3Cbcyz - Aaron Heilman(2432354254)
abcyz - Bob Wickman(3443525423)
abxy - Pedro Feliciano(2444405352)
abxy - Cla Meredith(3525244353)
a - Doug Brocail(3112344441)


3
C - Dontrelle Willis(32323)
Zach Duke(02333)

abcxyz - Chad Qualls(2443334433)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(3352343533)
cx - Ryan Madson(3533434435)


A
BCZ - Derek Lowe(44544)
BXZ - Greg Maddux(03343)
BC - Carlos Zambrano(44235)
CX - Randy Johnson(44434)
Xz - Jay Bergmann(43434)
B - Cole Hamels(43323)
X - Jeff Francis(53454)
X - Shawn Hill(44434)
X - Justin Germano(44343)
X - Jason Jennings(43414)
Rich Hill(44443)
Rodrigo Lopez(40404)
Wandy Rodriguez(44242)
Orlando Hernandez(45332)
Jason Marquis(44320)
Tim Hudson(02430)
Ted Lilly(40310)

Often overlooked throughout his career, Derek Lowe suddenly looks like perhaps the hottest NL pitcher and intriguing trade target for anyone interested in paying third starter prices for someone currently ranking as a true ace. The performance of Jeff Francis also intrigues me, but with the weather obviously heating up across the country, gambling on a Rockies' pitcher at this time seems an unnecessary risk.


B
CYZ - Ben Sheets(55235)
CZ - Pedro Martinez
X - David Bush(33530)
Y - Hong-chih Kuo(033)
Josh Johnson

Cax - Brett Myers(5455434443)
Carlos Villanueva(2432245422)


C
X - Jon Lieber(43315)
Z - Paul Maholm(24432)
c - Matt Belisle(13532)
Doug Davis(03440)
Barry Zito(03530)


X
Aaron Cook(33434)
Josh Fogg(34343)
Anthony Reyes(34333)

Russ Ortiz(3425)


Y
Edgar Gonzalez(33423)


Z
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(4453242355)


a
y - Micah Bowie(02234)

bcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(4554443542)
bcxyz - Scott Linebrink(3454334343)
bcxyz - Brian Fuentes(2534345335)
bcxyz - Dan Wheeler(5423515334)
bcyz - Brad Lidge(4455444441)
bxyz - Jonathan Broxton(5343423545)
bxy - Takashi Saito(4545454254)
cxz - Derrick Turnbow(4442452445)
bx - Damaso Marte(4323343444)
bx - Tyler Johnson(3431355402)
by - Jorge Julio(4405444344)
cx - Randy Flores(3425433344)
cy - Russ Springer(2504443444)
cz - Rudy Seanez(4441513535)
xy - Manuel Corpas(4554552344)
x - Kelvin Jimenez(2444435444)
x - Rafael Soriano(3444445533)
x - Kirk Saarloos(4404443452)
x - Joe Smith(5554543224)
x - Antonio Alfonseca(5435343453)
x - Brad Salmon(4355433450)
x - Yoel Hernandez(3334541554)
x - Jared Burton(3454542530)
x - Kevin Cameron(4453342452)
x - Brad Hennessey(4441355324)
x - Doug Slaten(5441032444)
x - Matt Lindstrom(4253343425)
x - Chin-hui Tsao(4334234442)
x - Armando Benitez(5331453134)
x - Tony Pena(2342243353)
x - Tyler Yates(3551223334)
y - Juan Cruz(4452352524)
y - Saul Rivera(5234333424)
z - Neal Cotts(2043453410)
LaTroy Hawkins(2243445545)
Matt Wise(5245323444)
Zach McClellan(4442445213)
Jon Rauch(3105421544)
Oscar Villarreal(4334432124)
Brian Moehler(3421325535)
Jonathan Sanchez(4424332423)

Jorge Julio suddenly seems a possible foil for Manuel Corpas if Brian Fuentes ever falters for Colorado. Of course, after he burned us so badly this spring, we don't plan on grabbing Julio even if starts seeing some save opportunities.


b
cyz - Brad Thompson(33430)
Kyle Lohse(04434)

cyz - Mike Wuertz(4333442443)
cyz - Jose Valverde(3544234332)
cyz - Will Ohman(2405225532)
xyz - Chad Cordero(3443453441)
cy - Duaner Sanchez
cz - Tom Gordon(325351544)
cz - Scott Schoeneweis(1133233235)
xy - Peter Moylan(4231452444)
yz - Bob Howry(1303534534)
c - John Grabow(3334054020)
x - Elmer Dessens(5234335435)
x - Geoff Geary(1554323343)
x - Matt Capps(4333333134)
y - Brett Tomko(35532545)
y - Salomon Torres(3335242430)
y - Gary Majewski(443233204)
y - Greg Aquino(14551223)
y - Matt Smith(423220033)
z - Eddie Guardado
Taylor Tankersley(3320344030)
Renyel Pinto(0440232102)
Royce Ring(45)
Todd Coffey(4232332230)
Josh Sharpless(222332)
Tim Hamulack
Scott Cassidy
Chris Booker


c
z - Braden Looper(04231)
z - Clay Hensley(01230)

xz - David Weathers(3133324433)
yz - Macay McBride(1340354405)
z - Brandon Medders(3442253431)
z - Jonah Bayliss(3431033534)
z - Danny Kolb
Jose Mesa(3034244433)
Blaine Boyer(45452)
Ambiorix Burgos(3334134142)
Scott Eyre(3350102253)
Yhency Brazoban(4050)
Ryan Wagner(3224313133)
Franquelis Osoria


x
Chad Billingsley(4444534334)
Ryan Franklin(4343334434)
Ramon Ramirez(3540355431)
Carlos Marmol(3044343413)
Shawn Chacon(4313343332)


y
Joe Beimel(3440444425)
Vinnie Chulk(2445434334)
Brandon Lyon(3424322244)
Trever Miller(3005335343)
Chad Paronto(1323432333)
Rick White(5333232202)
Fabio Castro(30034)
Joey Devine


z
Jeremy Affeldt(5230534451)
Guillermo Mota(5252144)
Ryan Speier(441)
Jose Capellan(1523)
Scott Munter(3)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: While the three young starters recalled this week may grab most of the headlines, the arrival of San Diego's Chase Headley may offer just as much upside. This spring he demonstrated both outstanding tools and skills at Double-A, and after Kevin Kouzmanoff's slow start, a couple of solid weeks from Headley could leave the Padres with a new starting third baseman. Just don't go overboard in the bidding for someone with only two months above A-ball unless you desperately need a COR or UT bat.

Of the new NL pitchers, Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo obviously leads the pack thanks to his current rank as baseball's best pitching prospect. He should provide the Brewers with an outstanding short-term replacement for Capuano, and if he impresses, he could spend the rest of the year in the majors. Even owners in mixed leagues should target Gallardo, an endorsement that doesn't apply to John Van Benschoten or Anthony Reyes. While these two pitchers both possess plenty of promise, Van Benschoten qualifies as a gamble at best and Reyes clearly lacks the Cardinals' confidence, which could result in a trip back to Memphis if he doesn't demonstrate immediate improvement.


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