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June
15th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 AL LPR: Week 11

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 13th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
23ABX - C.C. Sabathia(44344)
2ABCX - Jeremy Bonderman(44554)
2ACX - John Lackey(44425)
3ACX - Josh Beckett(40435)
ABCXYZ - Kelvim Escobar(44244)
X - Joe Blanton(22433)

Sabathia replaces Javier Vazquez as the other starters up here mostly continue to roll.

2abcxy - J.J. Putz(4553555343)
abcxyz - Joe Nathan(4334344453)
ax - Matt Guerrier(4534324444)
ax - Hideki Okajima(4433243342)

In a relatively limited week of movement between ranking, the substitution of Putz for Accardo might rank as the most interesting development. After a spring filled with injury concerns, Putz now belongs in any discussion of baseball's best closers thanks to a combination of an all-around skill foundation and frequent bursts of pure dominance.


2
3BCYZ - Roger Clemens(5)
ABCXYZ - Johan Santana(45434)
C - Jose Contreras(43240)

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(4544344545)
3abcyz - Justin Duchscherer(2344443251)
abcxyz - Scot Shields(4353554544)
abcxyz - Akinori Otsuka(3554334555)
abcxyz - Chad Bradford(4455433043)
BYby - Francisco Liriano
CZby - Hector Carrasco(2222213414)
bcyz - Mike MacDougal(2454431233)
bxy - Alan Embree(3243325454)
by - Dennys Reyes(4014453513)
Mike Myers(3043544055)


3
ACXYZ - Roy Halladay(23503)
BCZ - Felix Hernandez(23343)
Bcz - Julian Tavarez(32424)
CZ - Andy Pettitte(42402)
C - Matt Clement
Y - Kevin Millwood(20300)
Z - Bartolo Colon(42010)

abcxyz - Huston Street(5335344245)
bcz - Todd Jones(5324132255)
x - Aaron Fultz(5300333352)


A
BXby - Fausto Carmona(33455)
BCX - Erik Bedard(34333)
BCZ - A.J. Burnett(54540)
XY - Dan Haren(53244)
X - Jeremy Guthrie(53345)
X - Justin Verlander(43244)
X - Gil Meche(30334)
Jake Westbrook(40450)
Daniel Cabrera(03340)


B
X - Cha Seung Baek(44333)
Y - Mike Mussina(25154)
Y - Curt Schilling(25234)
Joe Saunders(3423)


C
Z - Rich Harden(535)

abx - Scott Downs(0422553343)
Victor Zambrano(153323)


X
Y - James Shields(32334)
Daisuke Matsuzaka(42343)
Chien-ming Wang(34243)


Y
Luke Hudson(0)


a
x - Lenny DiNardo(335)
Shaun Marcum(53402)

bcxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(4534244435)
bcxyz - Bobby Jenks(3543433535)
bcxyz - Juan Rincon(0353443344)
bcxy - Scott Williamson(5452353335)
bxy - Jon Papelbon(5444323444)
bxy - C.J. Wilson(4344344504)
bxy - Pat Neshek(3334453545)
cxz - George Sherrill(5535445335)
cxz - Eric Gagne(3553344453)
cxz - Al Reyes(4351345344)
cxz - Rafael Betancourt(3435354342)
cxz - Tim Byrdak(3532544333)
xyz - Justin Speier(5345335345)
cz - David Riske(2445455541)
xy - Joaquin Benoit(5424451443)
b - Shawn Camp(4414425525)
x - Todd Williams(3245555433)
x - Jeremy Accardo(4353525203)
z - Jason Frasor(1535345434)
z - Ron Flores(4444234142)
z - Chris Ray(5454510242)
Brandon Morrow(4342444423)
Matt Thornton(3253440240)


b
y - Joe Kennedy(20351)

cyz - Roberto Hernandez(4032132534)
cyz - Kyle Farnsworth(2052451233)
cyz - Matt J. Miller(03)
cz - Kiko Calero(3305035345)
yz - Fernando Rodney(3443432242)
y - Wes Littleton(443432143)
y - Javier Lopez(2034530403)
y - Jon Huber(42425)
y - Scott Feldman(2402324323)
y - Joe Nelson
z - Mike Burns
Joel Pineiro(1435352244)
Luis Vizcaino(4322134144)
Rafael Perez(455234)
Fernando Cabrera(2101414432)
Tom Mastny(3244233323)
Craig Breslow


c
xyz - Mike Timlin(3332453435)
x - Bobby Seay(5323535324)
z - Chris Reitsma(1333343035)
z - Jay Witasick(3532512233)
z - Ron Villone(4343201)
Octavio Dotel(34332455)


x
Frank Francisco(4325534324)
Chris Bootcheck(4345323334)
Jamie Walker(3431352333)
Sean Henn(3334133324)
Jay Marshall(3423333300)


y
Brian Burres(33441)

Joe Borowski(4443323524)
Sean Green(3422333543)
Zach Miner(4135)
Craig Hansen


z
Manny Delcarmen(4)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Johan Santana: No start.
Roy Oswalt: Sun:SEA(J.Washburn)
Ben Sheets: No start.
Jake Peavy: No start.
Brandon Webb: Sun:@BAL(D.Cabrera)
Greg Maddux: Sun:@CHC(R.Hill)
Josh Beckett: No start.
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Sat:SF(M.Cain)
Dan Haren: Fri:STL(B.Looper)
Rich Harden: No start(DL).
Felix Hernandez: Fri:@HOU(W.Rodriguez)
Matt Cain: Sat:@BOS(D.Matsuzaka)
Jon Papelbon: 3 Home vs. SF.

With Cain against Matsuzaka and Felix in Houston, we'll deploy Oswalt, Webb, Maddux, Dice-K, Haren, and Papelbon.

Offensively, Wright subs for the injured Upton while Iannetta, Hafner, Hall, and Baldelli stay benched.

Rotohelp.com(10th lg; 234th overall)
Week 11b: June 15-June 17

 
C	Brian McCann		880 
C	Josh Bard		300 
1B	Ryan Howard		1420
1B	Prince Fielder		910
2B	Ian Kinsler		630
2B	Kelly Johnson		400 
3B	David Wright		1550
3B	Mark Teahen		750
SS	Jose Reyes		1610 
SS	Hanley Ramirez		1100
OF	Matt Holliday		1410
OF	Manny Ramirez		1390
OF	Alex Rios		1000 
OF	Willy Taveras		860
OF	Barry Bonds		830 
OF	Shane Victorino		560
DH	Albert Pujols		2050 
DH	Delmon Young		750

SP	Roy Oswalt		1550 
SP	Greg Maddux		1040 
SP	Brandon Webb		1130 
SP	Daisuke Matsuzaka	950 
SP	Dan Haren		940
SP	Jon Papelbon		900  
RP	Francisco Cordero	1260
RP	Takashi Saito		1200
RP	Ryan Dempster		1130
RP	Joe Borowski		1110

Total Week 11b Salary:		29610


Today's Fantasy Rx: Oakland's promotion of Kurt Suzuki creates an interesting situation for the Athletics. Jason Kendall ranks as perhaps the decade's most durable catcher, though his disastrous season at the plate leaves an opening for Suzuki to claim regular work a year ahead of schedule. Billy Beane also would not have promoted Suzuki simply to replace Adam Melhuse on the bench, meaning that anyone suffering with poor catching in AL fantasy leagues needs to make a serious attempt to add Suzuki, who just might emerge as a significant fantasy asset by the All-Star break.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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