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June
9th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 NL LPR: Week 10

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 6th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
23ABXY - John Smoltz(54504)
3ACXZ - Jake Peavy(54554)
A - Ian Snell(42145)
X - Aaron Harang(34353)
X - Randy Wolf(43533)
Sergio Mitre(34405)

Smoltz returns to the top slot, though Peavy clearly remains the class of the NL this year.

abcxz - Heath Bell(3435555544)
ay - Saul Rivera(4134523433)
David Borkowski(1355243443)

Though I can't recommend him unilaterally due to limited upside, Borkowski's first appearance in the top ranking this season at least merits notice since the move indicates he might last in the Astros' bullpen far longer than I originally anticipated. Owners in deep NL leagues should feel free to consider him no worse than excellent short-term roster filler.


2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(45334)
3BCYZ - Chris Carpenter(3)
ABCXYZ - Brandon Webb(33554)
by - Adam Wainwright(40444)

Though he still worries me, Adam Wainwright suddenly looks like a good option even in mixed leagues. Don't give up on the youngster.

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4353413344)
3Cbcyz - Aaron Heilman(4424323542)
abcxyz - Bob Wickman(2234435254)
abxy - Pedro Feliciano(5542444405)
abxy - Cla Meredith(4355352524)
a - Doug Brocail(3431123444)


3
C - Dontrelle Willis(43232)
Zach Duke(30233)

abcxyz - Chad Qualls(4422443334)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(3433523435)
cx - Ryan Madson(4535334344)


A
BCZ - Derek Lowe(24454)
BXZ - Greg Maddux(40334)
BX - David Bush(43353)
CX - Randy Johnson(44443)
Xz - Jay Bergmann(43434)
cz - Braden Looper(50423)
B - Cole Hamels(45433)
X - Jeff Francis(45345)
X - Justin Germano(44434)
X - Shawn Hill(44434)
X - Wandy Rodriguez(44424)
X - Orlando Hernandez(54533)
X - Tim Hudson(40243)
X - Ted Lilly(44031)
X - Jason Marquis(24432)
Chris Young(14443)
Tim Lincecum(54432)
Rich Hill(22444)
Rodrigo Lopez(44040)

Justin Germano's overdue emergence in the Padres' rotation seems a boon to everyone except Clay Hensley's unfortunate owners. While his low strikeout rate could create problems, he otherwise offers impressive upside in ERA, WHIP, and even wins.


B
CYZ - Ben Sheets(55523)
CZ - Pedro Martinez
C - Carlos Zambrano(34423)
X - Brad Penny(42343)
Y - Hong-chih Kuo(0)
Josh Johnson

Cax - Brett Myers(5455434443)
Carlos Villanueva(3424322454)


C
Xc - Matt Belisle(31353)
X - Doug Davis(00344)
X - Jon Lieber(34331)
Z - Paul Maholm(22443)
Barry Zito(20353)


X
bcyz - Brad Thompson(23343)
Aaron Cook(43343)
Oliver Perez(33433)
Anthony Reyes(34333)

Russ Ortiz(3425)


Y
Edgar Gonzalez(334)


Z
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(4144344532)


a
y - Micah Bowie(0223)

bcxyz - Francisco Cordero(4555545534)
bcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(4554443542)
bcxyz - Scott Linebrink(4534543343)
bcxyz - Dan Wheeler(3344454235)
bcyz - Brad Lidge(5444455444)
bcyz - Brian Fuentes(4253434533)
bxyz - Jonathan Broxton(4534534342)
bcx - John Grabow(1343334054)
bxy - Takashi Saito(3444545454)
cxz - Jason Isringhausen(5334525145)
cxz - Derrick Turnbow(4324442452)
bx - Tyler Johnson(4434313554)
bx - Damaso Marte(4443233434)
cx - Randy Flores(4434254333)
cy - Russ Springer(2252504443)
cz - Rudy Seanez(2344415135)
xy - Manuel Corpas(5144554552)
x - Rafael Soriano(5434444455)
x - Joe Smith(4555554543)
x - Kevin Cameron(4445334245)
x - Kirk Saarloos(4404443452)
x - Brad Hennessey(2444444135)
x - Brad Salmon(4355433450)
x - Jared Burton(3454542530)
x - Antonio Alfonseca(4235435343)
x - Matt Lindstrom(5425334342)
x - Chin-hui Tsao(4334234442)
x - Tony Pena(5452342243)
x - Armando Benitez(3453314531)
x - Oscar Villarreal(2443344321)
y - Juan Cruz(3254452352)
z - Neal Cotts(2043453410)
LaTroy Hawkins(0224344554)
Zach McClellan(4442445213)
Kelvin Jimenez(3532244443)
Brian Moehler(4534213255)
Jonathan Sanchez(0444424332)
Tyler Yates(4435512233)
Jon Rauch(5423105421)


b
Kyle Lohse(00044)

cxyz - Jose Valverde(4535442343)
cyz - Will Ohman(2552405225)
cyz - Mike Wuertz(3344333442)
xyz - Chad Cordero(5333344345)
cy - Duaner Sanchez
cz - Tom Gordon(325351544)
cz - Scott Schoeneweis(4211133233)
yz - Bob Howry(4413035345)
x - Elmer Dessens(5234335435)
x - Geoff Geary(3415543233)
x - Matt Capps(3432433333)
y - Jorge Julio(4044054443)
y - Salomon Torres(5333524243)
y - Peter Moylan(3344231452)
y - Brett Tomko(355325)
y - Greg Aquino(14551223)
y - Gary Majewski(44323)
y - Matt Smith(423220033)
z - Eddie Guardado
Taylor Tankersley(4433203440)
Renyel Pinto(2504402321)
Royce Ring(45)
Todd Coffey(2423233223)
Josh Sharpless(22233)
Tim Hamulack
Scott Cassidy
Chris Booker


c
z - Clay Hensley(01230)

xz - David Weathers(4354331333)
yz - Macay McBride(2421340354)
yz - Brian Shackelford
z - Brandon Medders(4344225343)
z - Jonah Bayliss(3143431033)
Ambiorix Burgos(3334134142)
Scott Eyre(4335010225)
Yhency Brazoban(4050)
Blaine Boyer(45)
Ryan Wagner(3224313133)
Franquelis Osoria


x
Shawn Chacon(052)

Chad Billingsley(3544445343)
Ryan Franklin(4343433344)
Ramon Ramirez(3540355431)
Doug Slaten(4354410324)
Kevin Gregg(4343453323)


y
Joe Beimel(4323440444)
Vinnie Chulk(0532445434)
Trever Miller(5423430053)
Clay Condrey(3344413041)
Brandon Lyon(3342432224)
Chad Paronto(2301323432)
Rick White(5333232202)
Fabio Castro(30034)
Joey Devine


z
Jeremy Affeldt(5255230534)
Guillermo Mota(5252)
Ryan Speier(441)
Jose Capellan(15)
Scott Munter(3)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: Five intriguing youngsters reached the majors this week, with Atlanta's Yunel Escobar offers the most immediate promise as the Braves' third base replacement for Chipper Jones. Felix Pie and Matt Kemp also appear set for significant roles, and if someone in your NL league cut him, grab Chris Burke since he seems set to reclaim a starting job as soon as Craig Biggio reaches three thousand hits.


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