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June
8th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 AL LPR: Week 10

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 6th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
2ABCX - Jeremy Bonderman(34455)
2ACX - John Lackey(54442)
3ACX - Josh Beckett(54043)
ABCXYZ - Kelvim Escobar(04424)
AX - Joe Blanton(55224)
Javier Vazquez(13242)

Blanton and Vazquez hit the highest ranking this week despite fairly mediocre recent performances from both pitchers. At least Bonderman looks as strong as ever, a deserving claimant of the top spot.

abcxyz - Joe Nathan(4343343444)
ax - Matt Guerrier(5445343244)
ax - Jeremy Accardo(5534353525)
ax - Hideki Okajima(4443324334)

Nathan and Accardo respectively emerge as the third and fourth AL relievers to reach the top rank this season. With Nathan's previous flyball tendency seemingly under control, he appears superior to any closer in the league other than possibly KRod and Putz, and Accardo, despite his inconsistency, at least remain Toronto's closer for the rest of the season.


2
3BCYZ - Roger Clemens
3ABX - C.C. Sabathia(44434)
ABCXYZ - Johan Santana(44543)
C - Jose Contreras(34432)

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(5354544344)
3abcyz - Justin Duchscherer(2344443251)
abcxyz - Chad Bradford(3344455433)
abcxyz - Scot Shields(3434353554)
abcxyz - Akinori Otsuka(3335543345)
abcxy - J.J. Putz(5445455355)
BYby - Francisco Liriano
CZby - Hector Carrasco(3520222221)
bcyz - Mike MacDougal(2454431233)
by - Dennys Reyes(4014453513)
by - Alan Embree(2333243325)
Mike Myers(4403043544)


3
ACXYZ - Roy Halladay(52350)
BCZ - Felix Hernandez(02334)
Bcz - Julian Tavarez(33242)
CZ - Andy Pettitte(34240)
C - Matt Clement
Y - Kevin Millwood(42030)
Z - Bartolo Colon(34201)

abcxyz - Huston Street(5335344245)
bcz - Todd Jones(4532413225)
x - Aaron Fultz(3530033335)


A
BCXZ - A.J. Burnett(45545)
BXby - Fausto Carmona(44334)
BCX - Erik Bedard(53433)
XY - Dan Haren(45324)
X - Jeremy Guthrie(45334)
X - Daisuke Matsuzaka(44234)
X - Justin Verlander(54324)
X - Daniel Cabrera(40334)
Jered Weaver(54304)
Jake Westbrook(40450)

Burnett looks as hot as anyone in the league. Cabrera also intrigues since he still owns strong base skills yet appears a little further post-hype with each passing month.


B
Y - Curt Schilling(32252)
Y - Mike Mussina(31251)
Cha Seung Baek(34433)
Joe Saunders(3423)


C
Z - Rich Harden(535)

abx - Scott Downs(4330422553)
Victor Zambrano(153323)


X
Y - James Shields(33233)
a - Shaun Marcum(35340)
Odalis Perez(35423)
Dustin McGowan(30344)
Gil Meche(53033)


Y
Luke Hudson(0)


a
x - Lenny DiNardo(33)

bcxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(4245342444)
bcxyz - Bobby Jenks(5433543433)
bcxyz - Juan Rincon(3035344334)
bcxy - Scott Williamson(2455452353)
bxy - C.J. Wilson(4534344344)
bxy - Jon Papelbon(5454443234)
bxy - Pat Neshek(5433344535)
cxz - George Sherrill(2255535445)
cxz - Eric Gagne(4433553344)
cxz - Tim Byrdak(4535325443)
cxz - Rafael Betancourt(2553343535)
cxz - Al Reyes(3443513453)
xyz - Justin Speier(5345335345)
by - Javier Lopez(4520345304)
cz - David Riske(3324454555)
xy - Joaquin Benoit(3454244514)
b - Shawn Camp(2444414425)
b - Tom Mastny(2243324423)
x - Todd Williams(4333245555)
x - Frank Francisco(2524325534)
y - J.C. Romero(3345220243)
z - Chris Ray(3454545102)
z - Jason Frasor(1315353454)
Brandon Morrow(4454342444)
Matt Thornton(5543253440)
Brandon Duckworth(4525003441)

Dave Riske continues to quietly compile a string of nice outings, making him a decent investment for teams needing to improve their qualitative base. Brandon Morros earns similar credentials but falls more into the high-risk/high-upside category.


b
y - Joe Kennedy(32035)

cyz - Kyle Farnsworth(4242052451)
cyz - Roberto Hernandez(4440321325)
cyz - Matt J. Miller
xyz - Fernando Rodney(4343443432)
cz - Kiko Calero(2533050353)
y - Scott Feldman(4324023243)
y - Wes Littleton(4434321)
y - Jon Huber(42425)
y - Joe Nelson
z - Mike Burns
Joel Pineiro(3214353522)
Fernando Cabrera(3210141443)
Rafael Perez(45523)
Luis Vizcaino(3343221341)
Craig Breslow


c
yz - Mike Timlin(233324534)
x - Bobby Seay(5323535324)
z - Ron Villone(4343201)
z - Chris Reitsma(2133334303)
Octavio Dotel(34332)


x
Boone Logan(4524344333)
Chris Bootcheck(4434532333)
Jamie Walker(4533431352)
Dustin Moseley(2435334340)
Jason Davis(3254334324)
Brian Tallet(4233244334)
Sean Henn(4333413332)
Jay Marshall(4342333330)


y
Brian Burres(33441)

Joe Borowski(4251444332)
Sean Green(3244342233)
Zach Miner(4135)
Craig Hansen


z
Ron Flores(3444423)
Manny Delcarmen(4)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Sat:WAS(L.Speigner)
Roy Oswalt: No start.
Ben Sheets: Sat:@TEX(B.McCarthy)
Jake Peavy: No start.
Brandon Webb: No start.
Greg Maddux: No start.
Josh Beckett: Fri:@ARI(D.Davis)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Sun:@ARI(R.Johnson)
Dan Haren: Sat:@SF(B.Zito)
Rich Harden: No start(DL).
Felix Hernandez: Sun:@SD(C.Young)
Matt Cain: Sun:OAK(L.DiNardo)
Jon Papelbon: 3 Road at ARI.

Santana appears automatic, as do Haren, Felix, Cain, and Papelbon. Out of the three tougher calls, Beckett takes the starting slot since we like Davis a lot less than Randy and don't trust Sheets in Texas.

Offensively, Iannetta, Hall, Teahen, and Baldelli stay benched while Victorino flips for Delmon Young, bringing us under the cap.

Rotohelp.com(13th lg; 296th overall)
Week 10b: June 8-June 10

 
C	Brian McCann		880 
C	Josh Bard		300
1B	Travis Hafner		1380
1B	Prince Fielder		910
2B	Ian Kinsler		630
2B	Kelly Johnson		400 
3B	David Wright		1550
3B	B.J. Upton		410
SS	Jose Reyes		1610 
SS	Hanley Ramirez		1100
OF	Matt Holliday		1410
OF	Manny Ramirez		1390
OF	Alex Rios		1000 
OF	Willy Taveras		860
OF	Barry Bonds		830 
OF	Shane Victorino		560
DH	Albert Pujols		2050
DH	Ryan Howard		1420 

SP	Johan Santana		1960 
SP	Josh Beckett		1000
SP	Dan Haren		940
SP	Felix Hernandez		840 
SP	Matt Cain		840
SP	Jon Papelbon		900  
RP	Francisco Cordero	1260
RP	Takashi Saito		1200
RP	Ryan Dempster		1130
RP	Joe Borowski		1110

Total Week 10b Salary:		29870


Today's Fantasy Rx: The Rays finally reconstituted their rotation this week, cutting Jae Seo, sliding Casey Fossum into the bullpen, where he could prosper in his old role, and promoting J.P. Howell and Andy Sonnanstine. Both of the promoted youngsters should emerge as Tampa mainstays given the former's all-around skill foundations and the latter's fantastic control, however both likely will experience growing pains, especially while pitching in front of such a shaky defense. I only can recommend both for gambling owners, though in keeper leagues, definitely try to FAAB both guys for a couple of bucks due to their excellent long-term upside.

Three other prospects also reached the majors as Jerry Owens and Josh Fields joined the White Sox while Joey Gathright rejoined the Royals. Gathright remains a promising speed merchant, needing only regular playing time to steal 6-10 bases a month, and Owens looks like a decent fallback option as he possesses a similar skill set yet seems even more at risk of rotting on a big league bench. Of course, Fields remains the safe option since Joe Crede's injury issues soon could cede the youngster a full-time job. Grabbing at least one of this trio seems a good move for savvy owners looking to stockpile trade bait for later in the season.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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