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May
26th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 NL LPR: Week 8

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 23rd. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
23ABXY - John Smoltz(44454)
3ACXZ - Jake Peavy(54545)
A - Ian Snell(44421)
X - Randy Wolf(32443)

abcxz - Heath Bell(4454522343)

Bell earns deserved recognition as the first reliever to reach the top ranking in either league this year, and despite some recent struggles, he remains a great play in relatively deep NL leagues. Smoltz and Wolf also vaulted to this perch, supplanting Mark Hendrickson, who now even appears in mild danger of losing his rotation slot.


2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(44453)
3BCYZ - Chris Carpenter(3)
BCXYZ - Brandon Webb(33533)
by - Adam Wainwright(03404)

3Cbcxyz - Aaron Heilman(4353433442)
3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4344543534)
abcxyz - Bob Wickman(5344432234)
abxy - Cla Meredith(4434444355)
bxy - Pedro Feliciano(3353455424)
ax - Doug Brocail(4444343431)


3
CX - Dontrelle Willis(43243)
Zach Duke(33330)

abcxyz - Chad Qualls(4224445344)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(3445534335)
cx - Ryan Madson(3333334535)


A
BXZ - Greg Maddux(44440)
BC - Carlos Zambrano(34434)
BX - David Bush(34343)
CX - Randy Johnson(43444)
CX - Jon Lieber(53334)
Xz - Jay Bergmann(43434)
cz - Braden Looper(43450)
B - Cole Hamels(24454)
X - Wandy Rodriguez(54344)
X - Shawn Hill(44434)
X - Tim Hudson(44440)
X - Orlando Hernandez(44254)
X - Ted Lilly(34344)
X - Jason Marquis(34324)
Tom Glavine(44523)
Rich Hill(55224)
Tom Gorzelanny(42441)
Mark Hendrickson(45013)


B
CYZ - Ben Sheets(34555)
CZ - Derek Lowe(35324)
CZ - Pedro Martinez
X - Brad Penny(44423)
Josh Johnson

Suddenly Sheets appears back on track just in time to suffer from blister problems, which could leave him undervalued for another couple of weeks in some leagues.

Cax - Brett Myers(5455434443)
Y - Hong-chih Kuo(23)
Carlos Villanueva(1243234243)


C
X - Doug Davis(43003)
Z - Paul Maholm(00322)
c - Matt Belisle(44531)
Barry Zito(34203)


X
Jeff Francis(43453)
Aaron Cook(33343)
Anthony Reyes(33433)
Aaron Harang(33234)
Jeff Suppan(33332)

Russ Ortiz(3)


Y
Edgar Gonzalez(334)


Z
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(5355324144)


a
x - Kirk Saarloos(2)
y - Micah Bowie(0)

bcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(4554443542)
bcxyz - Francisco Cordero(5333444555)
bcxyz - Scott Linebrink(5443344534)
bcxyz - Dan Wheeler(4532333444)
bcyz - Brad Lidge(3454445444)
bcyz - Will Ohman(5044525524)
bcyz - Brian Fuentes(2432544253)
bcyz - Mike Wuertz(4200533344)
bxyz - Jonathan Broxton(3433445345)
bcx - John Grabow(2434344441)
bxy - Takashi Saito(5343444545)
cxz - Jason Isringhausen(4535445334)
cxz - Derrick Turnbow(4543514432)
bx - Damaso Marte(5545535444)
bx - Tyler Johnson(3424444443)
by - Salomon Torres(2123544555)
cx - Randy Flores(4345324443)
cz - Rudy Seanez(5352342344)
xy - Manuel Corpas(3332551445)
b - Renyel Pinto(3534452504)
x - Joe Smith(4554424555)
x - Armando Benitez(4544353453)
x - Tyler Yates(5153544355)
x - Matt Lindstrom(3345515554)
x - Kevin Cameron(4444453342)
x - Brad Hennessey(3434244444)
x - Rafael Soriano(5335354344)
x - Tony Pena(4324454523)
x - Doug Slaten(3533243544)
x - Chin-hui Tsao(4334234442)
x - Oscar Villarreal(4234324433)
y - Saul Rivera(3354442441)
y - Juan Cruz(2243254452)
z - Neal Cotts(2043453410)
Chris Spurling(4421434444)
Zach McClellan(4442445213)
Kevin Correia(4033324444)
Jon Rauch(5353454231)
Jonathan Sanchez(0444424332)
LaTroy Hawkins(1455430224)
Henry Owens(4221445253)
Antonio Alfonseca(3143342354)

Suddenly Salomon Torres looks like a real closer. Other unexpected developments include the continued development of Brad Hennessey and even Kevin Correia into viable late-inning options, a feat matched by Chris Spuling in Milwaukee. Of course, Spurling faces a far tougher path to any save opportunities with Francisco Cordero, Derrick Turnbow, and possibly even Carlos Villanueva posing far tougher obstacles than perennial DL and trade bait like Armano Benitez.


b
cyz - Brad Thompson(323)
y - Brett Tomko(30402)
Kyle Lohse(23000)

cxyz - Jose Valverde(2333545354)
xyz - Chad Cordero(3235245533)
cy - Duaner Sanchez
cz - Tom Gordon(325351544)
cz - Scott Schoeneweis(4433421113)
xy - Peter Moylan(3323553334)
yz - Bob Howry(3433321441)
x - Elmer Dessens(5234335435)
x - Geoff Geary(3433323415)
x - Matt Capps(0323543432)
y - Jorge Julio(1232540440)
y - Greg Aquino(14551223)
y - Matt Smith(423220033)
y - Gary Majewski
y - Josh Kinney
z - Eddie Guardado
Taylor Tankersley(4433522443)
Todd Coffey(4324232332)
Royce Ring(45)
Tim Hamulack
Josh Sharpless
Scott Cassidy
Chris Booker


c
z - Clay Hensley(01230)

xz - David Weathers(5424435433)
yz - Macay McBride(4224213)
yz - Brian Shackelford
y - Russ Springer(3344342225)
z - Brandon Medders(4434422534)
z - Jonah Bayliss(0235433143)
Scott Eyre(4133433501)
Ambiorix Burgos(2333413414)
Ryan Wagner(3224313133)
Yhency Brazoban(4)
Blaine Boyer
Roberto Novoa
Franquelis Osoria


x
Shawn Chacon()

y - Rick White(4234533323)
Brian Shouse(4340504343)
Ryan Franklin(3255244343)
Ramon Ramirez(3435335403)
Lee Gardner(4332324433)


y
Trever Miller(4253454234)
Brandon Lyon(2552533342)
Clay Condrey(53344413)
Joe Beimel(4524223243)
Chad Paronto(3444323013)
Vinnie Chulk(3224240532)
Fabio Castro(30034)
Joey Devine


z
Jeremy Affeldt(3144352552)
Ryan Speier(441)
Scott Munter(3)
Jose Capellan


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: Losing Brett Myers to the DL yesterday will really hurt many owners, especially since Ryan Madson, who appears the best option for save, appears behind Antonio Alfonseca on Charlie Manuel's late-inning depth chart. The promotions of Sean Marshall, Yhency Brazoban, and Tony Abreu all also merit attention, but Ryan Braun's overdue shot in the majors easily ranks as the most significant NL move this week. He returned from wrist tendonitis just raking this week and now owns a .342/.418/.701 output with 10 HR, 22 RBI, 28 R, a 4/7 SB%, and a 15:11 BB:K in 117 AB for AAA Nashville(PCL). Despite his defensive deficiencies, Braun adds yet another superb young bat to the Brewers' lineup, and other than possibly Hunter Pence, no National League position player promoted during 2007 should impact fantasy races more than Braun. Make every effort to grab him in any NL or reasonably deep mixed league where you see him available.


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