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May
25th
2007
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2007 AL LPR: Week 8

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 23rd. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
2ACX - John Lackey(45454)
3ACX - Josh Beckett(44540)
ABCXYZ - Kelvim Escobar(44404)
AX - Daisuke Matsuzaka(42344)
AX - Justin Verlander(04354)
AX - Joe Blanton(34552)
Jeremy Guthrie(5445)

I never expected to see Jeremy Guthrie reach this level after his initial failures to pitch effectively in low-pressure relief roles, but right now he appears as solid as anyone in the league. The other major change involved Lackey vaulting atop the ranking, a deserved move given his continuing success. Javier Vazquez and Gil Meche dropped down after mediocre weeks.


2
3BCYZ - Roger Clemens
3ABX - C.C. Sabathia(33344)
ABCXYZ - Johan Santana(23445)
ABCX - Jeremy Bonderman(34434)
C - Jose Contreras(24344)

With nearly two months of the season elapsed, Santana's hot streak appears right on target. Expect continued excellence over the balance of the year, punctuated by no more than a couple of bad outings.

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(3454453545)
3abcyz - Justin Duchscherer(2344443251)
abcxyz - Chad Bradford(5345353344)
abcxyz - Akinori Otsuka(3544533355)
abcxyz - Scot Shields(3524234343)
abcxy - J.J. Putz(4443535445)
BYby - Francisco Liriano
CZby - Hector Carrasco(1443520222)
bcyz - Mike MacDougal(3420245443)
bxy - Alan Embree(3234342333)
by - Dennys Reyes(4014453513)
by - Brandon League
Mike Myers(2323444030)

Every closer here appears on track for continued success in the immediate future with the obvious exception of Alan Embree, who really only qualifies as a closer by default until Huston Street or Duchscherer return.


3
ACXYZ - Roy Halladay(35523)
BCZ - Felix Hernandez(54002)
Bcz - Julian Tavarez(34332)
CZ - Andy Pettitte(43342)
C - Matt Clement
Y - Kevin Millwood(22420)
Z - Bartolo Colon(43420)

abcxyz - Huston Street(5335344245)
bcz - Todd Jones(4244532413)
x - Aaron Fultz(3445333530)


A
BCXZ - A.J. Burnett(14455)
BXby - Fausto Carmona(44443)
BCX - Erik Bedard(55453)
XY - Dan Haren(44445)
X - Gil Meche(45453)
X - Daniel Cabrera(43240)
Jered Weaver(32454)
Jake Westbrook(40450)
Javier Vazquez(43513)
Chad Gaudin(05034)
Nate Robertson(42042)

Haren continues to suffer from nothing other than a slightly depressed ground-fly rate and otherwise belongs in any discussion of the league's best pitchers.


B
Y - Mike Mussina(04312)
Y - Curt Schilling(33322)
Cha Seung Baek(40334)
Joe Saunders(342)


C
Z - Rich Harden(535)
Jae Seo(02040)
Victor Zambrano(00)

abx - Scott Downs(4332443543)


X
Y - James Shields(54333)
Odalis Perez(33354)
Chien-ming Wang(24343)

While I do not trust Perez unilaterally, this trend definitely indicates he belongs on someone's active roster in all AL leagues right now.


Y
Luke Hudson(0)


a
Shaun Marcum(35)

bcxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(5543542453)
bcxyz - Joe Nathan(4533554343)
bcxyz - Bobby Jenks(3525433543)
bcyz - Roberto Hernandez(5424334440)
bcyz - Juan Rincon(4443303534)
bxy - Jon Papelbon(4450354544)
bxy - Pat Neshek(4443541543)
bxy - Javier Lopez(3344534245)
bxy - Jesse Crain(3344535142)
bxy - C.J. Wilson(4324245343)
cxz - Al Reyes(5434334435)
cxz - Rafael Betancourt(3444325533)
xyz - Justin Speier(5345335345)
xy - J.C. Romero(2444533452)
xy - Joaquin Benoit(3134323454)
xz - Chris Ray(4543342345)
b - Shawn Camp(4443224244)
b - Tom Mastny(4425224332)
x - Matt Guerrier(4234455445)
x - Hideki Okajima(5543534443)
x - Jeremy Accardo(4553555343)
x - Jamie Walker(5531434533)
x - Chris Bootcheck(4332443453)
x - Lenny DiNardo(3344525423)
x - Jay Marshall(5233333434)
z - Jason Frasor(2452131535)
Matt Thornton(3454455432)
Brandon Morrow(2254344543)
Brandon Duckworth(4452500344)
Danys Baez(3453401523)
David Aardsma(4433232255)

Accardo possesses the skills to remain the Jays' closer, but given that bullpen's fluidity since Ryan's injury, retaining Frasor as insurance seems quite prudent.


b
y - Joe Kennedy(24232)

cxyz - Kyle Farnsworth(4333342420)
cyz - Matt J. Miller
xyz - Fernando Rodney(3434344343)
cy - Scott Williamson(2455452)
cz - Kiko Calero(3323323253)
y - Scott Feldman(4432402324)
y - Wes Littleton(44)
y - Joe Nelson
y - Jon Huber
z - Mike Burns
Luis Vizcaino(1441334322)
Fernando Cabrera(5433210141)
Joel Pineiro(3324332143)
Rafael Perez(4)
Craig Breslow

Right now Cabrera appears a long way from supplanting anyone as closer, so turn to Tom Mastny or Rafael Betancourt when seeking Borowski insurance.


c
xz - George Sherrill(4433435225)
yz - Mike Timlin(233324534)
x - Bobby Seay(3433353235)
z - Eric Gagne(534444335)
z - David Riske(3442533324)
z - Tim Byrdak(4535)
z - Chris Reitsma(4213333430)
z - Jay Witasick(3335325122)
z - Ron Villone(434)
Jose Mesa(2245330342)
Octavio Dotel(3)


x
Dustin Moseley(3434243533)
Frank Francisco(3343425243)
John Parrish(3343432523)
Brian Bruney(4344133233)
Sean Henn(4333413332)
Jason Davis(3323332543)


y
Brian Burres(033)
Zach Miner(2)

Joe Borowski(3352425144)
Sean Green(3244)
Craig Hansen


z
Ron Flores(34)
Manny Delcarmen(4)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Johan Santana: No start.
Roy Oswalt: Sun:@ARI(L.Hernandez)
Ben Sheets: No start.
Jake Peavy: Sun:MIL(J.Suppan)
Brandon Webb: Sat:HOU(C.Sampson)
Greg Maddux: Fri:MIL(D.Bush)
Josh Beckett: No start(DL)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Fri:@TEX(B.McCarthy)
Dan Haren: Fri:@BAL(E.Bedard)
Jon Papelbon: 3 Road at TEX.
Rich Harden: No start(DL)
Felix Hernandez: Fri:@KC(G.Meche)
Matt Cain: Fri:COL(J.Hirsh)

With several decent options here, we'll deploy Peavy, Webb, Maddux, Haren, and Cain without question. We don't want to run anyone in Texas, and given Felix's limited innings lately, running Oswalt instead of Felix seems the best option for our sixth start.

Iannetta, Atkins, and Baldelli basically remain glued to our bench. Howard returns today, but we don't want to use him in Atlanta. Lastly, with plenty of cap room available, Pujols will sub for Bill Hall, who sits with the Brewers in San Diego.

Rotohelp.com(16th lg; 365th overall)
Week 8b: May 25-May 27

 
C	Brian McCann		880 
C	Josh Bard		300
1B	Travis Hafner		1380
1B	Prince Fielder		910
2B	Ian Kinsler		630
2B	Kelly Johnson		400 
3B	David Wright		1550
3B	Mark Teahen		750
SS	Jose Reyes		1610 
SS	Hanley Ramirez		1100
OF	Matt Holliday		1410
OF	Manny Ramirez		1390
OF	Alex Rios		1000 
OF	Willy Taveras		860
OF	Barry Bonds		830
OF	Shane Victorino		560 
DH	Albert Pujols		2050
DH	Delmon Young		750

SP	Roy Oswalt		1550 
SP	Jake Peavy		1180
SP	Brandon Webb		1130 
SP	Greg Maddux		1040 
SP	Dan Haren		940 
SP	Matt Cain		840
RP	Francisco Cordero	1260
RP	Takashi Saito		1200
RP	Ryan Dempster		1130
RP	Joe Borowski		1110

Total Week 8b Salary:		29740


Today's Fantasy Rx: J.J. Putz looks to be both healthy and wonderfully effective right now, but with Chris Reitsma heading to the DL, the Mariners seemingly lack an automatic alternative if Putz's injury issues reemerge. Surprisingly, 2006 first rounder Brandon Morrow, while not overly dynamic, increasingly looks like the club's best alternative, and as he gains more late-inning action, his odds of ever returning to the rotation continue dropping. Anyone in AL keeper leagues needs to pounce on Morrow if you see him available on your waiver wire.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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