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May
12th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 NL LPR: Week 6

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 9th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
3ACXZ - Jake Peavy(42454)
ACXc - Matt Belisle(23445)
AX - Tim Hudson(34444)
AX - Chris Capuano(54304)
AX - Ian Snell(32344)
Mark Hendrickson(4450)

The always-solid Capuano and improving youngster Snell replace Snell teammates Tom Gorzelanny and Rotohelp fave Shawn Hill, who left yesterday's start with a no-hitter in progress and appears headed to the DL with worrisome elbow discomfort.


2
3ABCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(44444)
3ABXY - John Smoltz(42444)
3BCYZ - Chris Carpenter(3)
BCXYZ - Brandon Webb(25533)
by - Adam Wainwright(31034)

Though Oswalt's lack of 5s concerns me, he otherwise remains in competition with Braves Smoltz and Tim Hudson for the title of safest NL pitcher outside of San Diego.

3Cbcxyz - Aaron Heilman(5441243534)
3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4434443445)
abcyz - Bob Wickman(4253444322)
abxy - Cla Meredith(5444344443)
bxy - Pedro Feliciano(5433333534)
ax - Doug Brocail(2344444434)


3
C - Dontrelle Willis(31432)
Zach Duke(00433)

abcxyz - Chad Qualls(4544342244)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(5444123445)
cx - Ryan Madson(4333333453)


A
BXZ - Greg Maddux(34444)
Xcz - Braden Looper(45434)
BX - David Bush(35343)
by - Brett Tomko(14304)
B - Cole Hamels(25224)
X - Shawn Hill(44443)
X - Rich Hill(44255)
X - Orlando Hernandez(44254)
X - Ted Lilly(55343)
X - Jason Marquis(45343)
X - Wandy Rodriguez(42543)
X - Tom Gorzelanny(35424)
X - Claudio Vargas(50334)
X - Anthony Reyes(24334)
Tom Glavine(34445)
Noah Lowry(24234)
Kip Wells(45030)

Hill and Gorzelanny only drop down to this level, though the trends of Vargas, Reyes, and Glavine merit far more attention, especially since the first two pitchers should cost relatively little to acquire in most leagues.


B
CYZ - Ben Sheets(03034)
CZ - Derek Lowe(50235)
CZ - Pedro Martinez
C - Carlos Zambrano(02434)
X - Brad Penny(33344)
Y - Hong-chih Kuo
Josh Johnson
Alay Soler

Cax - Brett Myers(4433544545)
Carlos Villanueva(3144421243)

Clearly settled into the bullpen without difficulty, Tom Gordon's trip to the DL makes Myers one of the most underrated closers in the league with an upside only rivaled by Billy Wagner due to each relievers' potential for amassing plenty of strikeouts.


C
X - Doug Davis(33443)
Z - Paul Maholm(33400)
Jon Lieber(5533)
Barry Zito(42234)
Randy Johnson(1434)


X
z - Jay Bergmann(44343)
John Maine(43343)
Jerome Williams(44313)
Jeff Suppan(53333)
Bronson Arroyo(23433)
Aaron Harang(05333)
Jeff Francis(03343)
Russ Ortiz(34330)


Y
Edgar Gonzalez(33)


Z
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(3533535532)


a
bcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(4345544435)
bcxyz - Francisco Cordero(3553334445)
bcxyz - Scott Linebrink(3332354433)
bcxz - Heath Bell(4355445452)
bcyz - Brad Lidge(0445443454)
bcyz - Brian Fuentes(4542234243)
bcyz - Mike Wuertz(2353224200)
bxyz - Jonathan Broxton(5431333433)
bcz - Scott Schoeneweis(0045443342)
bxy - Takashi Saito(4445353434)
cxy - Russ Springer(3345433443)
cxz - Jason Isringhausen(4524453544)
cxz - Derrick Turnbow(5334245435)
cxz - David Weathers(3323554244)
bx - Damaso Marte(3504554553)
bx - Renyel Pinto(2344353445)
bx - Todd Coffey(5532534324)
cx - Randy Flores(2343444345)
xy - Chad Paronto(2434243444)
xy - Joe Beimel(3443244524)
xy - Manuel Corpas(3554423333)
x - Joe Smith(4554445544)
x - Tony Pena(4545432445)
x - Kirk Saarloos(3440444345)
x - Armando Benitez(2534445443)
x - Zach McClellan(3444424452)
x - Rafael Soriano(2445335354)
x - Oscar Villarreal(4534442343)
x - Chin-hui Tsao(4445433423)
x - Tyler Yates(4155435153)
x - Brad Hennessey(4043434244)
x - Brian Shouse(2443343405)
y - Micah Bowie(4543524130)
y - Saul Rivera(5324244253)
z - Neal Cotts(4244204345)
Jonathan Sanchez(4540444424)
Antonio Alfonseca(4444231433)
Henry Owens(4221445253)
Jon Rauch(3415124353)

Save opportunities on the Braves remain in flux with both Gonzalez and Soriano receiving chances. Of course, with Bob Wickman set to return on Tuesday, the past-and-future set-up men merit comparatively little attention at the moment. Conversely, Tony Pena now clearly looks like Jose Valverde's backup while the Giants' unsettled situation makes Brad Hennessey a surprising candidate for save opportunities if Armando Benitez begins suffering from arm discomfort, control problems, whooping cough, leprosy, or any of the many other ailments that plagued him in the past.


b
cyz - Brad Thompson(3)
Kyle Lohse(43223)

cxyz - Dan Wheeler(4553453233)
cyz - Will Ohman(2240450445)
cyz - Jose Valverde(3424242333)
xyz - Bob Howry(3341343332)
cy - Duaner Sanchez
cz - Tom Gordon(325351544)
yz - Chad Cordero(4413432352)
c - John Grabow(3243434)
x - Matt Capps(4145544032)
x - Geoff Geary(3035543433)
x - Tyler Johnson(3435333342)
y - Salomon Torres(1345321235)
y - Greg Aquino(14551223)
y - Peter Moylan(233443323)
y - Matt Smith(423220033)
y - Jorge Julio(32212325)
y - Gary Majewski
y - Josh Kinney
z - Eddie Guardado
Elmer Dessens(335234335)
Taylor Tankersley(2413324433)
Royce Ring(45)
Tim Hamulack
Josh Sharpless
Scott Cassidy
Chris Booker


c
z - Clay Hensley(01230)

yz - Macay McBride(42242)
yz - Brian Shackelford
z - Brandon Medders(1214344344)
z - Rudy Seanez(2545352342)
z - Jonah Bayliss(2332310235)
z - Kerry Wood
Scott Eyre(5432413343)
Ambiorix Burgos(3224233341)
Ryan Wagner(3224313133)
Blaine Boyer
Roberto Novoa
Yhency Brazoban
Franquelis Osoria


x
Doug Slaten(4353533243)
Matt Lindstrom(5342333345)
Lee Gardner(4324343323)
Ryan Franklin(3333325524)
Shawn Chacon(3304313343)


y
Rick White(54344234)
Brandon Lyon(4432125525)
Trever Miller(3044313425)
Vinnie Chulk(3413322424)
Juan Cruz(5224325)
Clay Condrey(533)
Fabio Castro(30)
Casey Daigle
Joey Devine


z
Jeremy Affeldt(5323423144)
Ryan Speier(441)
Scott Munter(3)
Jose Capellan


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: Matt Lindstrom's QA trend makes him the top option to receive save chances in Florida following today's trade of Jorge Julio for Byung-Hyun Kim and yesterday's placement of Henry Owens on the DL. Renyel Pinto easily looks like the next choice given his superior performance to that of Taylor Tankersley, Kevin Gregg, Randy Messenger, and Lee Gardner. Kim remains the obvious wild card here given his impressive work in the minors and past success closing, but he appears more likely to replace Wes Obermueller in the rotation. While he definitely merits FAAB consideration in most leagues, target Lindstrom and Pinto if primarily concerned about saves.


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