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May
11th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 AL LPR: Week 6

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2007 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 9th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors from the minors or the DL.


1
3ACXYZ - Roy Halladay(43552)
3ACX - Josh Beckett(54454)
3Z - Bartolo Colon(3443)
AX - Gil Meche(33454)
AX - Javier Vazquez(24435)
X - Joe Blanton(34334)

The addition of Meche and Vazquez to this list doesn't surprise me given the former's breakout spring and the latter's established skill baseline, but Colon's appearance after just four starts shocks me considering the limited buzz surrounding him this winter. As discussed a few days ago, you won't be able to grab him at any sort if discount for much longer if you fail to acquire him in the very near future.


2
3BCYZ - Roger Clemens
3BX - C.C. Sabathia(44333)
BCXYZ - Johan Santana(55423)
ABCX - Jeremy Bonderman(34434)
ACX - John Lackey(43345)
C - Jose Contreras(34324)

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(2145345445)
3abcxyz - Justin Duchscherer(2523444432)
abcxyz - Chad Bradford(4443454534)
abcxyz - Akinori Otsuka(5434235445)
abcxyz - Scot Shields(4051343352)
CZaby - Hector Carrasco(4415144352)
abcxy - J.J. Putz(5443244435)
BYby - Francisco Liriano
bcyz - Mike MacDougal(4333034202)
aby - Dennys Reyes(4400340144)
bxy - Alan Embree(3314333234)
by - Brandon League
Mike Myers(5303032323)


3
BCZ - Felix Hernandez(540)
Bcz - Julian Tavarez(03034)
CZ - Andy Pettitte(43043)
C - Matt Clement
Y - Kevin Millwood(22242)

abcxyz - Huston Street(5533534424)
abcz - Todd Jones(2424424453)
x - Aaron Fultz(3534003445)
z - Arthur Rhodes


A
BCXYZ - Kelvim Escobar(43444)
BXby - Fausto Carmona(04444)
BCZ - A.J. Burnett(43414)
Xby - Joe Kennedy(44324)
BC - Erik Bedard(30554)
XY - Dan Haren(35444)
XY - James Shields(35543)
X - Chad Gaudin(44505)
X - Daniel Cabrera(43443)
X - Justin Verlander(45304)
X - Carlos Silva(32344)
Mark Buehrle(45431)
Jake Westbrook(40450)
Nate Robertson(44420)
Jarrod Washburn(44421)

Few pitchers continue to impress me this spring more than Carmona, who should remain in the Indians' rotation indefinitely following Jake Westbrook's DL trip. Chad Gaudin and Carlos Silva also continue to impress despite mildly questionable skill sets, though neither pitcher's performance demands you attempt to acquire them at this time as anything more than secondary options in trade talks.


B
XY - Curt Schilling(33433)
Y - Mike Mussina(0043)
Cha Seung Baek(0403)
Joe Saunders(342)


C
Z - Rich Harden(535)
Jae Seo(32020)
Victor Zambrano(00)

abx - Scott Downs(4544544332)


X
Daisuke Matsuzaka(34423)
Odalis Perez(33433)


Y
Luke Hudson


a
bcxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(5542455435)
bcxyz - Bobby Jenks(3343352543)
bcyz - Juan Rincon(4242444433)
bxy - Jon Papelbon(4434445035)
bxy - Jesse Crain(4143344535)
bxy - C.J. Wilson(3445434324)
bxy - Scott Feldman(4435244324)
bxy - Pat Neshek(3055334443)
cxz - Al Reyes(4442545434)
cxz - Rafael Betancourt(5245344432)
xyz - Justin Speier(5345335345)
bx - Tom Mastny(4334534425)
xy - J.C. Romero(0444324445)
xy - Joaquin Benoit(4324343134)
xz - Chris Ray(4535145433)
b - Shawn Camp(5552431444)
x - Hideki Okajima(5451555543)
x - David Aardsma(5445524433)
x - Jeremy Accardo(4344334553)
x - Brendan Donnelly(4444513334)
x - Danys Baez(4424243453)
x - Jamie Walker(4544035531)
x - Jay Marshall(5443155523)
x - John Parrish(5433333434)
z - Jason Frasor(5242452131)
Ron Mahay(4544401422)
Shaun Marcum(3414432054)
Matt Guerrier(3412424234)

Almost everyone in Boston's bullpen suddenly looks like a decent fantasy option in deeper leagues thanks to the combination of strong support from their fellow relievers and the comparatively limited workloads required due to the excellent work from all the club's starters.


b
cxyz - Joe Nathan(3345345335)
cxyz - Kyle Farnsworth(4343343333)
cyz - Roberto Hernandez(2443542433)
cyz - Matt J. Miller
cy - Scott Williamson(245545)
cz - Kiko Calero(4333433233)
yz - Fernando Rodney(2432534343)
y - Javier Lopez(4334)
y - Wes Littleton(4)
y - Jason Standridge(121)
y - Brian Sikorski
y - Joe Nelson
y - Jon Huber
z - Mike Burns
Fernando Cabrera(442543321)
Joel Pineiro(5034332433)
Luis Vizcaino(2242214413)
Rafael Perez(4)
Craig Breslow


c
xz - George Sherrill(3333334433)
yz - Mike Timlin(233324534)
x - Bobby Seay(3235343335)
z - Jay Witasick(30553335)
z - Chris Reitsma(4421421333)
z - David Riske(2223243442)
z - Eric Gagne(5344)
Jose Mesa(252245)
Octavio Dotel


x
Brian Bruney(3253543441)
Sean Henn(5433341333)


y
Brian Burres(0)

Joe Borowski(4135335242)
Sean Green(32)
Craig Hansen
Zach Miner


z
Manny Delcarmen
Ron Flores


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2007.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings. Relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2007 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2007 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Fri:DET(M.Maroth)
Roy Oswalt: Sat:ARI(L.Hernandez)
Ben Sheets: Sat:@NYM(M.Pelfrey)
Jake Peavy: Fri:STL(K.Wells)
Roy Halladay: No start.
Brandon Webb: Fri:@HOU(C.Sampson)
Josh Beckett: Sun:BAL(J.Guthrie)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: No start.
Dan Haren: No start.
Jon Papelbon: 3 Home vs. BAL.
Rich Harden: No start(DL)
Felix Hernandez: No start(DL)
Matt Cain: Sun:@COL(T.Buchholz)

With Webb in Houston and Cain in Colorado, we see no problem running Santana, Oswalt, Sheets, Peavy, Beckett, and Papelbon.

However, all those top starters leave us in a cap crunch, so Pujols and David Wright join J.D. Drew, Iannetta, and Willy Taveras on the bench, with the latter two staying seated due to inconsistent playing time for Iannetta and continuing injury concerns for Taveras. Garrett Atkins, beginning a homestand, and Delmon Young, who heads to Toronto for the weekend, reclaim lineup spots.

Rotohelp.com(11th lg; 242nd overall)
Week 6b: May 11-May 13

 
C	Brian McCann		880
C	Josh Bard		300 
1B	Ryan Howard		1420
1B	Travis Hafner		1380
2B	Ian Kinsler		630
2B	Kelly Johnson		400 
3B	Garrett Atkins		1150
3B	Mark Teahen		750
SS	Jose Reyes		1610
SS	Bill Hall		900 
OF	Matt Holliday		1410
OF	Manny Ramirez		1390
OF	Alex Rios		1000 
OF	Barry Bonds		830
OF	Rocco Baldelli		750
OF	Shane Victorino		560 
DH	Hanley Ramirez		1100 
DH	Delmon Young		750
 
SP	Johan Santana		1960 
SP	Roy Oswalt		1550
SP	Ben Sheets		1220 
SP	Jake Peavy		1180 
SP	Josh Beckett		1000 
SP	Jon Papelbon		900
RP	Francisco Cordero	1260
RP	Takashi Saito		1200
RP	Ryan Dempster		1130
RP	Joe Borowski		1110

Total Week 6b Salary:		29720


Today's Fantasy Rx: In addition to the Red Sox, other AL relief corps that limit each pitcher's respective downside due to strong support from teammates include the Orioles, Athletics, and the Angels. I also still like the Twins' relievers in general, but the erratic performances from heretofore safe options like Juan Rincon, Jesse Crain, and Dennys Reyes prevent me from unilaterally endorsing everyone in the bullpen as no worse than low-risk roster filler for now.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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