Today's Fantasy Rx

Milwaukee: Carlos Villanueva, RH Reliever
3-0 on a 15:12 K:BB in 19.1 IP over 13 G
with 14 H, 1 HR, a .70 G-F, and a 2.79 ERA.

The 23-year-old snuck into the Brewers' bullpen at the end of camp despite theoretically ranking as the club's sixth starter. Five weeks into the season his roto value appears far above his actual worth thanks to three vultured wins and plenty of support from his fellow relievers. More worrisome is the fact that Yovani Gallardo hasn't missed a beat at Triple-A. If one of Milwaukee's starters either falters or succumbs to injury, Gallardo almost certainly will receive the first shot since unlike Villanueva, he won't suffer from any transition to longer outings. I still see plenty of long-term upside for Villanueva, but unless you own him at a low salary in a keeper league, deal or cut the youngster due to his limited chance to finish the year with much more than minimal positive value.

New York Mets: John Maine, RH Starter
5-0 on a 41:24 K:BB in 45.1 IP over 7 GS
with 29 H, 3 HR, a .71 G-F, and a 1.79 ERA.

Easily the most unexpected presence on the list of the year's best starters to date, Maine currently ranks among the major league leaders on both ERA and wins, an impressive feat for someone who didn't even own an unquestioned rotation spot when camp began. He now looks like the Mets' savoir, though with a hit rate unsustainable even by New York's gifted defenders, control issues slowly emerging, and a low groundball rate certain to cause problems during the summer, Maine's stay atop the roto value list appears short-lived. Given the certainty of both a rising ERA and a reduced frequency of victories, Maine owners need to shop him now to see if you can exchange him for an established #1 or #2 starter before he slips back to #3 or even #4 status, a logical result barring significant skill improvement in the very near future.

Philadelphia: Jamie Moyer, LH Starter
4-2 on a 31:15 K:BB in 48 IP over 7 GS
with 37 H, 3 HR, a .61 G-F, and a 3.00 ERA.

I can't imagine many riskier pitchers than 44-year-old soft-tossing southpaws posting a career-worst groundball rate in the league's best homer park. Yes, lefties invariably receive some boost from moving to the NL league, but when hitters discover Moyer's weakness within the next month, his ERA should shoot upward. With a downside matched by few players in either league, Moyer appears a prime candidate to deal immediately for someone with more than a negligible chance of finishing the year with an ERA below 4.50.

Pittsburgh: Tom Gorzelanny, LH Starter
4-2 on a 29:13 K:BB in 46.1 IP over 7 GS
with 40 H, 2 HR, a 1.15 G-F, and a 2.72 ERA.

With a higher strikeout rate giving Gorzelanny more long-term upside than fellow youngsters Zach Duke, Paul Maholm, and Ian Snell, his success this spring shouldn't surprise anyone. Both his win total and overall ineffectiveness appear the product of a normal development curve, so although I suspect he'll finish the year with no more than a dozen wins and an ERA closer to 4.00 than 3.00, Gorzelanny certainly owns the skills necessary to echo his current stats over the balance of the year. He looks like a decent target for anyone looking to steal a solid pitcher from any owner harboring unfounded concerns about Gorzelanny's immediate future on a team with as many holes as Pittsburgh.

San Diego: Kevin Cameron, RH Reliever
0-0 on a 14:13 K:BB in 14.1 IP over 10 G
with 6 H, 0 HR, a 1.80 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA.

Most of San Diego's relievers belong on active rosters in any reasonable deep NL leagues, but while the skill sets of Trevor Hoffman, Scott Linebrink, Cla Meredith, Heath Bell, and even Doug Brocail support their success, this Rule 5 pick qualifies as a far riskier fantasy proposition. Kevin Towers clearly erred by leaving an open roster spot to select Cameron instead of protecting Joakim Soria, currently closing in Kansas City. Of course, we like Cameron a lot and envision him remaining relatively effective. However, he offers little upside beyond that of a competent middle reliever, and given his worrisome walk rate and wondrously lucky hit rate, he should start allowing runs any day now. Deal or cut him in favor of the multitude of safer relief options if you previous added him in the hope of securing another low-risk Padre pitcher.

San Francisco: Matt Morris, RH Starter
4-1 on a 19:19 K:BB in 46.1 IP over 7 GS
with 51 H, 3 HR, a 1.49 G-F, and a 3.11 ERA.

The arrival of Tim Lincecum realistically relegates Morris to the role of fifth starter in a rotation suddenly loaded with two fireballing right-handers and a couple of crafty lefties signed to long-term deals. A quick glance at the degradation of his command since his St. Louis days similarly will illustrate why treating Morris as more than a #4 starter is a mistake. I see no way for Morris either to continuing winning at this pace or to maintain an ERA anywhere around 3.00, making him someone to shop heavily now before his value declines.

St. Louis: Braden Looper, RH Starter
4-2 on a 26:14 K:BB in 44 IP over 7 GS
with 40 H, 2 HR, a 1.68 G-F, and a 2.66 ERA.

Entering the season I actually viewed Looper as the weak link in the Cardinals' rotation since he seemed quite comfortable as Jason Isringhausen's set-up man and hadn't started a game since A-ball in 1997. Instead, Carpenter hit the DL, Adam Wainwright looks lost on the mound, and neither Kip Wells nor Anthony Reyes can catch a break despite fairly decent skills, leaving Looper as the club's default ace. Though he isn't dominating many batters, his combination of solid control and a steady steam of groundballs appears the perfect antidote for at least some of the Cardinals' problems. If you grabbed Looper in your draft, you certainly should wait for now with the expectation of him at least echoing these stats over the next few months.

Washington: Jason Bergmann, RH Starter
0-3 on a 32:20 K:BB in 41 IP over 7 GS
with 26 H, 4 HR, a .68 G-F, and a 3.07 ERA.

We grabbed Bergmann right out of the gate in one league, just in time to watch his awful 3.2-inning/4-run/10-baserunner debut against Arizona. After weathering the expected ribbing, we happily watched him vault from sixth starter status to looking like Washington's second-best starter behind only Shawn Hill. In the six starts since that initial disaster, he owns a 2.41 ERA on a 31:14 K:BB in 37.1 IP. Though he hasn't won any games, Bergmann merits an active roster spot in almost any format, and considering I suspect he remains unowned in many mixed leagues due to his lack of victories, his skill development at least makes him someone to acquire even if the Nationals' don't begin offering more run support.

Today's Fantasy Rx: No, the Brewers won't maintain their .706 winning percentage much longer, especially since they didn't face particularly daunting opposition over the last two weeks, winning nine of their last ten games against a demoralized St. Louis club and also-rans Pittsburgh and Washington. Their upcoming trip to New York and Philadelphia should prove more challenging, but even after their winning streak ends, Milwaukee will remain among the NL's top clubs. I simply see no significant weaknesses on their club right now, so I see no reason to expect that the pace of accumulated victories enjoyed by the owners of both the Brewers' starters and relievers over the last six weeks will slacken to any overt extent. All five starters should hit double-digit in wins while no less than three relievers seem likely to join Villanueva at the three-win level by year's end. After a quarter century of mostly second division finishes, Milwaukee finally ranks as a good source of wins for fantasy baseball.