Today's Fantasy Rx

Arizona: Doug Davis, LH Starter
2-3 on a 32:22 K:BB in 42 IP over 7 GS
with 46 H, 2 HR, a 1.27 G-F, and a 2.36 ERA.

Always control-challenged in the past, Davis also isn't maintaining his high strikeout rate from past years. I also expect to see his homer rate rise as the weather warms, which will radically increase the number of disastrous outings on his pitching ledger. While he absolutely merits a roster spot in all leagues, Davis also looks like someone to shop before his rising ERA eliminates most his currently-inflated value.

Atlanta: Mike Gonzalez, LH Reliever
2-0 and 1 Save on a 12:7 K:BB in 15.1 IP over 16 G
with 14 H, 0 HR, a 1.12 G-F, and a 1.17 ERA.

As anticipated, Rafael Soriano continues to receive most of the save opportunities with Bob Wickman sidelined. Gonzalez only closes when the Braves face a preponderance of left-handed hitters in the late innings, leaving him little chance of emerging into a more significant role unless Soriano joins Wickman on the DL. Of course, with two wins, a dozen strikeouts, and an excellent ERA, Gonzalez remains a definite asset, albeit not one worth more than about $5 in standard leagues. You probably should wait to see how this bullpen develops over the upcoming months if you already own him, though mixed-league owners at least need to explore waiver-wire alternatives with more quantitative upside.

Chicago Cubs: Angel Guzman, RH Starter
0-0 on an 11:3 K:BB in 12.1 IP over 1 GS(5G)
with 10 H, 0 HR, a 1.00 G-F, and a 2.19 ERA.
0-2 on a 7:6 K:BB in 10.1 IP over 3 GS
with 14 H, 1 HR, a 1.56 G-F, and a 12.19 ERA for AAA Iowa(PCL).

A logical post-hype sleeper following his solid half-season at Iowa last summer, Guzman didn't deserve his demotion last month despite given his solid work in long relief. However, despite struggling back in Des Moines over the last couple weeks, his success against Washington on Sunday could keep him in the Cubs' rotation for a while. He definitely qualifies as a risky player to own, but I also envision him reclaiming some of his lost prospect luster if Piniella sticks with him. Consider Guzman a solid target for gambling NL owners.

Cincinnati: Matt Belisle, RH Starter
3-2 on a 34:8 K:BB in 44.1 IP over 7 GS
with 43 H, 2 HR, a 1.30 G-F, and a 3.45 ERA.

Belisle always appeared a good long-term bet back in his days as a Braves' prospect, though after two seasons buried in long relief, his success this spring definitely surprised me. The good news is that his overall skill development thoroughly supports his improved performance, making him a decent bet to remain relatively close to this level of ineffectiveness indefinitely. I consider him one of only four Reds' pitchers currently worth deploying in most formats, so feel free to acquire Belisle if you see him available at any cost shy of his $8-10 value.

Colorado: Jason Hirsh, RH Starter
2-3 on a 35:22 K:BB in 41.2 IP over 7 GS
with 37 H, 5 HR, a .60 G-F, and a 4.10 ERA.

Barely even given a rotation spot to begin the year, Hirsh already almost looks like the club's ace by virtue of owning the best ERA of any Rockies' starter and ranking as one of only two pitchers on the entire team with more than a single win. Unfortunately, his twenty-two walks also place him among the five most control-challenged pitchers in the league, and an awful groundball rate leaves him severely at risk for abundant longball problems this summer. You need to reserve Hirsh at home in NL leagues or otherwise deal the youngster due to the significant possibility of him finishing the year with an ERA far nearer 6.00 than his current mark.

Florida: Wes Obermueller, RH Starter
1-1 on a 14:11 K:BB in 19.2 IP over 3 GS(4G)
with 17 H, 0 HR, a .96 G-F, and a 3.66 ERA.
0-1 on a 6:2 K:BB in 18.1 IP over 3 GS
with 14 H, 0 HR, a 2.00 G-F, and a 2.45 ERA for AAA Albuquerque(PCL).

After a 2006 campaign spent demonstrating his command problems in front of Japanese audiences, Obermueller wisely signed with Florida and now finds himself patching one of the many holes in the Marlins' rotation. Considering he hasn't posted a decent strikeout-to-walk rate or even pitched that effectively since departing A-ball, I see no reason why he should finish this season with an ERA anywhere near his current mark. Florida primarily needs him to eat innings, a role in which he offers little fantasy upside regardless of your league depth. Unless you already find yourself desperately chasing wins, deal or cut Obermueller rather than risking the inevitable qualitative damage you'll sustain from keeping him on your team.

Houston: Matt Albers, RH Starter
1-2 on a 9:7 K:BB in 24.2 IP over 5 GS
with 30 H, 6 HR, a 1.42 G-F, and a 5.47 ERA.
1-1 on a 12:3 K:BB in 13 IP over 3 GS
with 16 H, 3 HR, a 2.25 G-F, and a 6.23 ERA for AAA Round Rock(PCL).

Only promoted to the rotation to replace the injured Jason Jennings, Albers' performance to date suggests he barely belongs at Triple-A. If not for his respectable control to date, we might see some truly horrific qualitative numbers here. Instead Albers just looks like another young pitcher ill-prepared for pitching in Houston. Deal or cut him in single-season leagues, only retaining him in keeper formats if you own him at a minimum price and can reserve him until his skills improve.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Brad Penny, RH Starter
4-0 on a 29:17 K:BB in 45.1 IP over 7 GS
with 38 H, 0 HR, a 2.11 G-F, and a 1.39 ERA.

Frequently mentioned in trade rumors this spring, Penny instead claimed the mantle of Dodgers' ace after a scorchingly successful April. With an impressive groundball rate taking full advantage of the club's solid defense, Penny could post his best overall numbers in years. However, his high walk rate suggests that even a sub-3.00 ERA is unsustainable, which means he appears certain post an ERA over 3.50 over the balance of the year. Despite the fact that we see a lot to like here, his general command issues and past injury problems force me to recommend that you at least shop him to see if you can get more than just thoughts in return for your Penny.

We'll continue tomorrow with more National League overachieving pitchers.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Pretty much all the Dodgers' starters continue to exceed expectations this spring, particularly end-of-rotation options Brett Tomko and Mark Hendrickson. Although the latter's improvement appears supported by skill development, Tomko remains at definite risk of losing his job to Chad Billingsley or Hong-chih Kuo even before Jason Schmidt returns. While shopping any LA starter seems wise, treat Tomko as a hot potato, swapping him for any comparable alternative unless you don't mind suffering a couple of bad starts and then watching him settle into the bullpen.