Today's Fantasy Rx

After reviewing relievers last week, I'll look at the most dominant starters in 2007 this weekend. Once again, please remember that the fairly limited sample size of statistics generated over the last three weeks renders the following comments far more useful as general suggestions rather than strong recommendations.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

We've included the most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

3 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
Ted Lilly, CHC(445): 1-1 on a 24:3 K:BB in 19 IP over 3 GS with 11 H, 0 HR, .61 G-F, and a 2.37 ERA. We always expected Lilly to excel upon joining the NL, but this dominating performance exceeds even our high hopes. However, a low hit rate and a complete lack of homers both portend a rising ERA. You certainly should wait if you already own him. Now just isn't a good time to go get Lilly if you failed to grab him in your draft.

Kip Wells, STL(454): 1-2 on an 18:7 K:BB in 20 IP over 3 GS with 11 H, 1 HR, a 1.87 G-F, and a 2.25 ERA. Wells should continue succeeding as long as he keeps his walk rate relatively near 3.0. Although his low hit rate suggests an upcoming trend toward higher qualitative stats, he otherwise seems a remarkably safe bet as a Cardinal. Of course, Wells doesn't appear likely to echo the success of Chris Carpenter, but if you need a starter, particularly in mixed leagues, he appears an excellent guy to target due to his surprisingly strong upside.

Shawn Hill, WAS(544): 1-2 on an 11:4 K:BB in 18.2 IP over 3 GS with 19 H, 0 HR, a 2.53 G-F, and a 2.89 ERA. A late-emerging sleeper in spring training, Hill realistically ranks as the best pitcher in Washington since as long as he remains healthy, his fantastic groundball rate couples with the protection offered by RFK to leave him with surprisingly little downside. Now, Hill also shouldn't win too many games in front of the Nationals' weak offense, but his positives otherwise far outweigh his negatives. Seek to acquire Hill in any league where he remains available for a limited cost.

Jake Peavy, SD(444): 2-0 on a 12:6 K:BB in 20 IP over 3 GS with 11 H, 0 HR, a 1.27 G-F, and a 0.90 ERA. We love Peavy and see no reason why he shouldn't contend for the Cy all year long. The problem here is that the Padres' bullpen soon will start allowing more than a run a week, and more importantly, Peavy's overall skill set just doesn't wow me at the moment. Don't take any action if you drafted him this spring with the intention of seeing him anchor your staff all year, however if you see an opportunity to upgrade your team in multiple other places, don't hesitate to shop your $20 ace for the right package of talent.

Jason Marquis, CHC(444) 1-1 on a 9:10 K:BB in 17 IP over 3 GS with 11 H, 0 HR, a 1.65 G-F, and a 2.65 ERA. Though some improvement from his awful 2006 appeared certain, Marquis hasn't improved his command and appears to own strong qualitative stats mostly due to good luck thus far. His value soon will begin decreasing as both offenses and the Chicago weather heats up. I congratulate anyone sufficiently prescient to draft him this spring for lucking into a decent #3 starter, but I similarly recommend you seek to deal him for a safer option at your first opportunity since I see little chance of him finishing the season with a roto value much above $5, a significant drop from his current worth.

3 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
John Smoltz, ATL(4344): 2-1 on a 19:10 K:BB in 26 IP over 4 GS with 25 H, 2 HR, a 1.50 G-F, and a 3.12 ERA. With only five victories between Smoltz and 200 wins, thereby essentially guaranteeing HOF induction courtesy of his 154 Saves, 3.24 ERA, 2800+ strikeouts, seven All-Star appearances, the 1996 Cy Young award, and a sterling 2.65 ERA in 207 post-season innings. For now, he appears set to continue co-anchoring the Braves' staff with Tim Hudson for another couple of years, making him as solid an investment as any veteran starter in the game. While I don't envision him reaching $20 again, few pitchers seem better bets to exceed $10. Given his strong skill set, feel free to target the veteran anywhere you see him available.

Roy Oswalt, HOU(4434): 3-0 on a 20:11 K:BB in 28 IP over 4 GS with 23 H, 2 HR, a 2.36 G-F, and a 2.89 ERA. An improved groundball rate mostly compensates for Oswalt's higher walk rate. However, the story here looks like his three wins in four starts, suggesting he should remain successful despite the struggles encountered this spring by both the Astros' offense and bullpen. Anything less than fifteen wins and a 3.00 ERA from Oswalt would shock me, so unless you see a clear opportunity to radically improve multiple areas of your team by moving the perennial Cy Young candidate, simply wait, safe in the knowledge that he should continue posting comparable stats throughout the summer.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Though Myers' move to the bullpen earlier this week shouldn't shock anyone considering the Phillies' public support for their ace's spring statement regarding his willingness to make the move, the club's action, coming on the heels of the three-year, $25.75M deal he signed in February, strikes me as the act of a ridiculously desperate regime too foolish to take advantage of a booming trade market for starting pitching over the last few months. Though I concur with Philadelphia's assessment regarding the lack of competent relievers, I view Adam Eaton as a much better relief option despite the fact he signed a similar deal in the off-season. The good news for Myers' owners is that he should post superb qualitative stats in his new role. His first-inning performance over the past few years indicates a strong tendency toward a fast start, with a noticeably low homer rate in his initial inning a particularly positive sign after his longball problems early this season. With Tom Gordon also clearly hurting, a shift into the closer's role within the next month for Myers similarly would not surprise me at all, making him a surprisingly solid buy-low target in all leagues.