Today's Fantasy Rx

After reviewing relievers last week, I'll look at the most dominant starters in 2007 this weekend. Once again, please remember that the fairly limited sample size of statistics generated over the last three weeks renders the following comments far more useful as general suggestions rather than strong recommendations.

QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

We've included the most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

3 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
Justin Verlander, DET(445): 1-0 on a 15:8 K:BB in 19 IP over 3 GS with 10 H, 0 HR, a 1.10 G-F, and a 1.42 ERA. Last season's AL Rookie of the Year looks even better this spring as Verlander started as hot as any pitcher in the league. Of course, he also remains in definite injury peril thanks to his skyrocketing workload and inevitably will see his ERA creep upward at least one run and possibly as much as two. Given the downside in owning such a high-risk, high-upside pitcher, most owners should take advantage of his scorching start to the year to shop Verlander, preferably to the owner you outbid for him during the draft.

Roy Halladay, TOR(444): 2-0 on a 13:4 K:BB in 23 IP over 3 GS with 19 H, 2 HR, a 1.62 G-F, and a 2.35 ERA. Despite the continuing decline in his strikeout rate, Halladay's superb control and increasingly conservative pitching style allow him to retain his status as the league's second-best pitcher. The Jays' lineup will supply sufficient offense for Halladay to win an easy fifteen games, and even pitching in the Rogers Centre won't keep him from posting superb marks in both primary qualitative categories. While I hope he eventually reemerges as a truly dominant pitcher, right now Halladay's numbers suggest those of Greg Maddux in a hitters' park. Definitely wait if you anted for him in the draft and otherwise only go after him if you Halladay's owner somehow souring on him because of those missing strikeouts.

Daniel Cabrera, BAL(444): 1-1 on a 19:5 K:BB in 19.2 IP over 3 GS with 20 H, 0 HR, a 2.69 G-F, and a 3.66 ERA. A breakout candidate in each of the last two springs, Cabrera currently owns a skill set that suggests we could see continuing qualitative improvement throughout the year. His surging groundball rate sharply minimizes the risk of allowing more than a minimal amount of homers, and anyone with this level of command similarly merits plenty of attention in any format. Since Cabrera doesn't own particularly impressive marks in traditional roto categories, now looks like a great opportunity to acquire the youngster before a repeat of his performance over the balance of the month starts pushing up his fantasy value.

2 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS
John Lackey, LAA(3543): 2-2 on a 21:7 K:BB in 24.2 IP over 4 GS with 28 H, 7 HR, a .68 G-F, and a 2.55 ERA. Aside from a weak ground-fly rate and the corresponding homer problems, Lackey's overall skill set perfectly prepared him to post another solid season around $15. No, he doesn't seem likely to win twenty games or emerge as a true ace, especially with such a high homer rate, but he also looks like the only perfectly safe investment among the Angels' starters. Unless you see an opportunity to grab Lackey now in the few leagues where he remains underrated, wait until his W/ERA/K marks no longer quite so strong compared to most other AL starters before attempting to add him to your squad anywhere.

Jeremy Bonderman, DET(3434): 0-0 on a 21:3 K:BB in 28 IP over 4 GS with 21 H, 2 HR, a .74 G-F, and a 2.25 ERA. Few pitchers possess skill sets to rival Bonderman's overall aptitude. Although he hasn't dominated most hitters over his initial quartet of starts, his demonstrated command strongly suggests that we should see that overdue drop in his ERA this season. Right now the best news for most owners is that Bonderman's lack of wins actually might make him available in some leagues despite his excellent ERA, so you might want to target him if a solid draft allows you to deal for a top starter earlier in the year. Otherwise take comfort in the fact that his lack of perfect starts in 2007 just might lead to the postponement of his $25 Cy Young campaign one more summer.

We'll continue tomorrow with NL LPR.

Internet Challenge

Losing Kendrick on top of Matsui forces us to burn a second move here, so we'll look for another bargain player since Matsui should be back in another ten days. Only three options seem viable: Rickie Weeks, Kelly Johnson, and Aaron Hill. Weeks unfortunately costs much more than we want to spend even considering his power numbers, and between Johnson and Hill, only Hill's superior BA to date makes him a better bet under any circumstances. With Johnson owning superior plate discipline and a slightly superior lineup slot at leadoff for the Braves, he appears comparable to Hill from a statistical viewpoint, along with costing $300 less. He'll replace Kendrick on our roster.

SP(6)
Johan Santana: No start.
Roy Oswalt: Sun:@MIL(D.Bush)
Ben Sheets: Fri:HOU(M.Albers)
Jake Peavy: No start.
Roy Halladay: No start.
Brandon Webb: No start.
Josh Beckett: Sat:NYY(J.Karstens?)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: Sun:NYY(C.Wright)
Dan Haren: No start.
Jon Papelbon: 3 Home vs. NYY.
Rich Harden: No start.
Felix Hernandez: No start.
Matt Cain: Sun:ARI(M.Owings?)

With five scheduled starts and Papelbon, we'll deploy our five scheduled starters and Papelbon.

The DL'd Josh Bard and Kaz Matsui obviously remain glued to the bench, and Howard's hamstring problems require exchanging him for Hafner. Lastly, due to a slight cap crunch, Victorino will replace Drew with Hanley staying active and Teahen stuck in reserve because of his persistent slump.

Rotohelp.com(9th; 314th overall)
Week 3b: April 20-April 22

C	Brian McCann		880 
C	Chris Iannetta		340 
1B	Albert Pujols		2050
1B	Travis Hafner		1380 
2B	Ian Kinsler		630
2B	Kelly Johnson		400
3B	David Wright		1550
3B	Garrett Atkins		1150
SS	Jose Reyes		1610
SS	Bill Hall		900
OF	Manny Ramirez		1390
OF	Alex Rios		1000
OF	Willy Taveras		860
OF	Rocco Baldelli		750
OF	Delmon Young		750 
OF	Shane Victorino		560
DH	Matt Holliday		1410
DH	Hanley Ramirez		1100

SP	Roy Oswalt		1550
SP	Ben Sheets		1220 
SP	Josh Beckett		1000
SP	Daisuke Matsuzaka		950 
SP	Matt Cain		840
SP	Jon Papelbon		900
RP	Francisco Cordero	1260
RP	Takashi Saito		1200
RP	Ryan Dempster		1130
RP	Joe Borowski		1110

Total Week 3b Salary:		29870

Today's Fantasy Rx: With several starting pitchers and even a couple of closers either hitting the DL this week or nursing potentially serious injuries, keep a close eye on your league's waiver wire both for possible FAAB pick-ups for your squad and to see how your competitors handle their health problems. Several April fantasy free agents almost always emerge as double-digit values over the course of the season, and the season still so young, feel free to gamble both on unproven starters and inexperienced late-inning relievers when searching for replacements for your sidelined pitchers. Just don't wait too long to churn your roster if your initial plays don't produce positive results in their first couple of appearances.