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April
14th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 NL LPR: Week 2

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

As no pitcher started more than two games prior to Thursday, I only will review relievers this week. Please remember that the extremely limited sample size of statistics generated in 2007 renders the following comments far more useful as general guidelines rather than specific recommendations.


QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Relievers who don't reach any of the required statistical goals or fail to retire a batter earn a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

We've included the most recent QA scores for each pitcher.


5 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
Derrick Turnbow, MIL(54444): 0-0 on a 9:1 K:BB in 5 IP over 5 G with 1 H, 0 HR, a 2-4 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Though Turnbow shouldn't supplant Francisco Cordero any time soon, this rebound from the Brewers' former closer fills perhaps the biggest hole in Milwaukee's playoff plans. With strong all-around skills and five simply dominant outings to date, Turnbow appears back to the form he displayed that first earned him opportunities for saves in Milwaukee two years ago. Unless you can't risk the inevitable blowup or two, Turnbow's qualitative potential and decent odds to finish with both a half-dozen saves and wins makes him an excellent player to acquire, particularly in NL leagues where he remains available as a free agent.


4 DOM, 1 DUL, 0 DIS
Cla Meredith, SD(43455): 1-0 on a 5:1 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 5 G with 2 H, 0 HR, a 9-0 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. The top middle reliever from 2006 hasn't missed a beat as Meredith's ground-fly rate alone rates him among the lowest-risk options in roto. Considering he similarly still possesses excellent command and remains supported by Scott Linebrink, Meredith belongs on someone's roster in every NL league. If he somehow slipped through the cracks on draft day, definitely try to acquire him at your next transaction deadline.

Jonathan Broxton, LAD(54453): 0-0 on a 6:0 K:BB in 5.2 IP over 5 G with 3 H, 0 HR, a 7-4 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Every year the Dodgers' set-up man inevitably makes at least a small positive contributions in all five standard categories, and with Broxton both unchallenged in that role and the logical successor to Takashi Saito, even leaving him available in most mixed leagues looks like a mistake. Yes, he should see his walk rate head noticeably upward at some point, but with strong strikeout and hit rates, he still should post a decent WHIP. I view him as an excellent target in the few mixed leagues where he appears as a free agent, as well as a good player to request as a throw-in when talking trade in NL leagues.

Manuel Corpas, COL(55434): 0-1 on a 5:1 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 5 G with 2 H, 0 HR, a 5-4 G-F, and a 1.93 ERA. Highly valued by many owners on draft day after excellent work in the second half of last summer, Corpas still only broke camp in the majors thanks to Tom Martin's DL stint. The good news is that he now appears certain to stick in the Rockies' bullpen indefinitely and even could see some save opportunities if Brian Fuentes encounters any health problems. Conversely, Corpas still pitches half his games in Colorado and inevitably will finish the season with fairly neutral qualitative contributions. Savvy owners should seek to deal him to anyone seeking either Fuentes insurance or simply just interested in acquiring a high-upside, fairly dominant reliever in a package that lets you upgrade a more important position.


4 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
Scott Linebrink, SD(5454): 1-0 on a 2:0 K:BB in 4 IP over 4 G with 1 H, 0 HR, a 6-2 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Like the Angels' Scot Shields, the most reliable set-up man in this league started the year quite solidly. Of course, he also receives even more support from the Padres' bullpen than Shields nets from Los Angeles with Cla Meredith and Trevor Hoffman bookending Linebrink. The main problem facing his owners is the unfortunate line-treading between the continuing trade rumors surrounding him and the upside of him closing if Hoffman hits the DL. With Meredith prepared to move into a bigger role and Linebrink approaching free agency, anyone in NL leagues where you lose crossovers probably should shop Linebrink over the next month for any comparable set-up men like Broxton, Rauch, or Rafael Soriano. However, with the Padres primed for a serious World Series run, don't be surprised if San Diego simply keeps Linebrink despite the risk of losing him this winter.


4 DOM, 1 DUL, 1 DIS
Kirk Saarloos, CIN(545532): 0-1 on a 6:2 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 6 G with 4 H, 1 HR, a 9-3 G-F, and a 1.93 ERA. While we love the minor league stats compiled by Saarloos, he simply didn't maintain his formerly impressive control following his 2004 trade from Houston to Oakland for Chad Harville. Neither his walk nor strikeout rates impressed over the past three seasons, though the Reds' decision to return him to the bullpen at least gives him a chance to regain his previous dominant form. Given management's apparent discomfort with Todd Coffey as a viable closer, Saarloos seems as likely to supplant David Weathers as anyone else in the system, so although I still won't recommend Saarloos due to the downside of pitching in Cincy, you also should feel free to wait to see how the bullpen coalesces this season if you already rostered him.


4 DOM, 0 DUL, 1 DIS
LaTroy Hawkins, COL(14554): 0-2 on a 3:1 K:BB in 4 IP over 5 G with 8 H, 0 HR, a 7-4 G-F, and a 9.00 ERA. With an ERA that never seems to keep pace with an otherwise fairly impressive skill set, Hawkins appeared too risky to merit much consideration in most leagues even before signing with the Rockies. Given his decreasing dominance and ever-present risk of disaster, his roto potential as Colorado's nominal set-up man doesn't outweigh the downside of owning someone capable of such abysmal qualitative performances. We still blame Dusty Baker for destroying Hawkins' confidence by forcing him into uncomfortable roles, though at this point, the need for Hawkins' admittedly few owners to deal or cut him immediately completely obfuscates any latent compassion we harbor for the formerly dynamic middleman.

Jon Rauch, WAS(45542): 1-0 on a 4:0 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 5 G with 6 H, 0 HR, 5-4 G-F, and a 7.71 ERA. Though Rauch's three-run blow-up earlier this week concerns me, he still ranks as one of the most reliable pitchers on the Nationals next to only Chad Cordero. He'll receive the vast majority of any outstanding save opportunities and stands to inherit the closer's job if Washington moves Cordero for more pitching later this summer. Both owners looking for another closer-in-waiting and those seeking to improve their qualitative foundations should feel free to target Rauch in free agency now before his inevitably dropping ERA will prompt a competitor to roster him first.


3 DOM, 3 DUL, 0 DIS
Henry Owens, FLO(44433): 0-0 and 1 Save on a 2:3 K:BB in 7 IP over 6 G with 2 H, 0 HR, an 11-8 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. We viewed Owens as the Marlins' probable closer from his acquisition in November until the trade for Jorge Julio at the end of spring training. He broke camp as the effective set-up man, and after Julio's implosion over the last two weeks, soon should vault to the front of the club's new closer committee. Despite his unimpressive command to date, the overall effectiveness and minor league dominance demonstrated by Owens makes him a good investment in all leagues and someone to target anywhere he appears available for minimum cost.


Today's Fantasy Rx: In addition to practically perfect performances from Meredith and Linebrink thus far, Trevor Hoffman, Heath Bell, Doug Brocail, and Kevin Cameron also haven't allowed runs this year. Last night, long reliever Mike Thompson actually became the first Padres' reliever to allow an earned run this season, a remarkably accomplishment yet somehow only a little surprising given the combination of PETCO, San Diego's solid defense, and the established skill levels of these pitchers. While I suspect Hoffman, Linebrink, and Meredith remain available in few leagues, Heath Bell deserves a roster spot in almost every NL circuit while owners seeking qualitative help in deeper leagues can consider Brocail, Thompson, and even Rule 5 pick Cameron. Although these guys won't maintain their current level of excellence, I see a strong possibility that all seven of these pitchers will finish the year with positive contributions in both ERA and WHIP.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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