Rotohelp.com

by Tim Polko

As no pitcher started more than two games prior to Thursday, I only will review relievers this week. Please remember that the extremely limited sample size of statistics generated in 2007 renders the following comments far more useful as general guidelines rather than specific recommendations.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

We've included the most recent QA scores for each pitcher.

6 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
Scot Shields, LAA(554454): 0-0 and 1 Save on an 8:1 K:BB in 6.1 IP over 6 G with 2 H, 0 HR, a 10-1 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. The most consistent set-up man in baseball over the past few years, Shields started this year on fire, easily compiling the best overall skill set of any reliever in the game through the season's first ten days. Yes, he will eventually slip toward the inevitable 3.00 ERA, but with both excellent control and impressive dominance, Shields once again should coast toward double-digit value. Signing a four-year extension last month means that if KRod ever succumbs to injury, Shields' value instantly will triple, making him an outstanding asset in AL leagues and someone you should target in any mixed league where he remains available.

5 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS
Jason Frasor, TOR(54445): 1-0 on a 7:1 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 5 G with 1 H, 0 HR, a 5-3 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. With Justin Speier departed and Brandon League sidelined, Frasor looks like the only established set-up man on the Jays, making him the automatic default closer if anything happens to B.J. Ryan. Of course, despite the downside if pitching in Toronto, Frasor's skill level makes him a fairly safe investment right now. While I don't see any reason to grab him in most mixed leagues, definitely try to acquire Frasor if he appears on your waiver wire at any point.

5 DOM, 0 DUL, 1 DIS
Bobby Jenks, CHW(445425): 1-1 and 2 Saves on an 8:2 K:BB in 5.2 IP over 6 G with 5 H, 0 HR, a 7-4 G-F, and a 3.18 ERA. We endorsed Mike MacDougal quite thoroughly prior to the season due to a general belief that MacDougal owned better skills than Jenks and that the Chicago closer appeared on the cusp of losing his job. Instead, for the second year in a row, Jenks quickly emerged as one of the AL's most reliable closers, and although he doesn't appear particularly impressive to date, he certainly no longer appears at risk of slipping into middle relief. Feel free to wait until you see an opportunity to swap Jenks to fill a couple other needs or just hold him indefinitely if he remains your bullpen anchor.

4 DOM, 1 DUL, 1 DIS
John Parrish, BAL(535425): 0-0 on an 8:1 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 6 G with 4 H, 0 HR, a 7-4 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Largely lost over the winter as Baltimore added free agents Danys Baez, Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, and Scott Williamson to provide the bridge from the Orioles' starter to closer Chris Ray, Parrish rebounded from missing all of 2006 due to injury to win a job during spring training. After a sizzling start, he now ranks as one of the safer roster filler options in the AL thanks to the combination of his improved skills and the support provided by Baltimore's new relievers. While Parrish offers little upside beyond decent qualitative stats and an occasional vultured win, he seems a surprisingly safe guy to target when trolling free agent lists for an injury replacement.

4 DOM, 0 DUL, 1 DIS
J.C. Romero, BOS(45404): 0-0 on a 1:0 K:BB in 3.1 IP over 5 G with 6 H, 1 HR, an 8-4 G-F, and an 8.10 ERA. No, Romero still hasn't regained the fairly impressive skill level he demonstrated much earlier this decade in Minnesota, as illustrated by his unacceptable qualitative stats to date. He strikes out too few batters while allowing too many hits, so even though I expect an improved walk rate, he still appears unlikely to emerge as a roto asset. If you rostered Romero during the spring in the hope of seeing him emerge as a potential option for saves, deal or cut him now before he drags down your numbers even further.

3 DOM, 3 DUL, 0 DIS
Alan Embree, OAK(343443): 0-0 on a 3:0 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 6 G with 4 H, 0 HR, a 7-8 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Even during an awful 2005 campaign in which he posted an ERA over 7.50, Embree generally demonstrated fairly solid skills other than a lofty homer rate. Last year in San Diego he fixed that issue thanks to PETCO, and moving to McAfee Coliseum for 2007 shouldn't send his ERA and WHIP spiraling toward his 2005 numbers. Bob Geren appears happy to employ him as a true lefty specialist, which means Embree should post fairly strong qualitative stats, along with adding an occasional win to your ledger. Consider him a remarkably low-risk reliever to target whenever you need a replacement for a sidelined pitcher.

3 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS
Justin Duchscherer, OAK(34553): 1-0 on a 5:0 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 5 G with 3 H, 1 HR, a 6-6 G-F, and a 5.06 ERA. Though Huston Street remains firmly established at the end of Oakland's bullpen, Duchscherer ranks beyond only the Angels' Scot Shields in likely fantasy value among current AL set-up men. He owns a well-rounded skill set that makes him a particularly advantageous asset when supported by Oakland's defense and comparably impressive solid like Kiko Calero, Alan Embree, and Street. I suspect Duchscherer remains owned in every AL and mixed league, but I see no reason not to target him if his current owner either still seems worried about Duchscherer's previous injury issues or even just doesn't value him in the proper $8-12 range.

We'll continue tomorrow with the first in-season NL LPR article of the year.

Internet Challenge

Clearly we erred with Jorge Julio, so after considering a half-dozen closers, including Jose Valverde, Salomon Torres, Todd Jones, and Chris Ray, we settled on either Bob Wickman or Ryan Dempster. Since both pitchers face our current closers about a half-dozen times, we broke the tie by considering that Dempster strikes out more batters and that he also costs $110 less than Wickman. Despite Josh Bard's injury, we also opted to cut Julio since even if he gets his job back, we'd rather need to add a new closer than to deal with a replacement catcher if Bard returns in only two weeks.

SP(6)
Johan Santana: Fri:TB(S.Kazmir)
Roy Oswalt: Fri:@PHI(B.Myers)
Ben Sheets: Fri:@STL(An.Reyes)
Jake Peavy: Sat:@LAD(J.Schmidt)
Roy Halladay: Fri:DET(J.Bonderman)
Brandon Webb: Fri:COL(J.Fogg)
Josh Beckett: Sun:LAA(Er.Santana)
Daisuke Matsuzaka: No start.
Dan Haren: Fri:NYY(K.Igawa)
Jon Papelbon: 3 Home vs. LAA.
Rich Harden: Sun:NYY(A.Pettitte)
Felix Hernandez: No start.
Matt Cain: Sat:@PIT(I.Snell)

With six decent home starts and Papelbon, we'll deploy everyone except Beckett, who simply seems too risky given the strong possibility of snow in Boston on Sunday. Offensively, Bard's injury returns Iannetta to the lineup for a couple of weeks, and then for cap reasons, Kaz Matsui replaces Hanley Ramirez. Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, and Shane Victorino all stay benched.

Rotohelp.com(12th lg; 368th overall)
Week 2b: April 13-April 15

C	Brian McCann		880 
C	Chris Iannetta		340 
1B	Ryan Howard		1420
1B	Travis Hafner		1380
2B	Howie Kendrick		520
2B	Ian Kinsler		630
3B	David Wright		1550
3B	Mark Teahen		750
SS	Jose Reyes		1610
SS	Bill Hall		900
OF	Manny Ramirez		1390
OF	Alex Rios		1000
OF	J.D. Drew		940
OF	Willy Taveras		860
OF	Rocco Baldelli		750
OF	Delmon Young		750
DH	Albert Pujols		2050 
DH	Kazuo Matsui		500

SP	Johan Santana		1960 
SP	Roy Halladay		1140
SP	Brandon Webb		1130
SP	Dan Haren		940
SP	Rich Harden		890 
SP	Jon Papelbon		900
RP	Francisco Cordero	1260
RP	Takashi Saito		1200
RP	Ryan Dempster		1130
RP	Joe Borowski		1110

Total Week 2b Salary:		29880

Today's Fantasy Rx: The postponement of last week's Seattle/Cleveland series means that both teams should play three more games over the balance of the year than any of their competitors. Therefore, when evaluating any deal involving Mariners or Indians, remember that anyone from those teams you acquire offers at least a little additional quantitative upside above and beyond their normal values. Conversely, hesitate a little longer before moving hitters on those two teams due to the extra series of games you likely will lose in the deal.

Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.


Rotohelp Our Philosophy		2007 AL LPR: Week 2 by Tim Polko Today's Fantasy Rx As no pitcher started more than two games prior to Thursday, I only will review relievers this week. Please remember that the extremely limited sample size of statistics generated in 2007 renders the following comments far more useful as general guidelines rather than specific recommendations. QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster. We've included the most recent QA scores for each pitcher. 6 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS Scot Shields, LAA(554454): 0-0 and 1 Save on an 8:1 K:BB in 6.1 IP over 6 G with 2 H, 0 HR, a 10-1 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. The most consistent set-up man in baseball over the past few years, Shields started this year on fire, easily compiling the best overall skill set of any reliever in the game through the season's first ten days. Yes, he will eventually slip toward the inevitable 3.00 ERA, but with both excellent control and impressive dominance, Shields once again should coast toward double-digit value. Signing a four-year extension last month means that if KRod ever succumbs to injury, Shields' value instantly will triple, making him an outstanding asset in AL leagues and someone you should target in any mixed league where he remains available. 5 DOM, 0 DUL, 0 DIS Jason Frasor, TOR(54445): 1-0 on a 7:1 K:BB in 4.2 IP over 5 G with 1 H, 0 HR, a 5-3 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. With Justin Speier departed and Brandon League sidelined, Frasor looks like the only established set-up man on the Jays, making him the automatic default closer if anything happens to B.J. Ryan. Of course, despite the downside if pitching in Toronto, Frasor's skill level makes him a fairly safe investment right now. While I don't see any reason to grab him in most mixed leagues, definitely try to acquire Frasor if he appears on your waiver wire at any point. 5 DOM, 0 DUL, 1 DIS Bobby Jenks, CHW(445425): 1-1 and 2 Saves on an 8:2 K:BB in 5.2 IP over 6 G with 5 H, 0 HR, a 7-4 G-F, and a 3.18 ERA. We endorsed Mike MacDougal quite thoroughly prior to the season due to a general belief that MacDougal owned better skills than Jenks and that the Chicago closer appeared on the cusp of losing his job. Instead, for the second year in a row, Jenks quickly emerged as one of the AL's most reliable closers, and although he doesn't appear particularly impressive to date, he certainly no longer appears at risk of slipping into middle relief. Feel free to wait until you see an opportunity to swap Jenks to fill a couple other needs or just hold him indefinitely if he remains your bullpen anchor. 4 DOM, 1 DUL, 1 DIS John Parrish, BAL(535425): 0-0 on an 8:1 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 6 G with 4 H, 0 HR, a 7-4 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Largely lost over the winter as Baltimore added free agents Danys Baez, Jamie Walker, Chad Bradford, and Scott Williamson to provide the bridge from the Orioles' starter to closer Chris Ray, Parrish rebounded from missing all of 2006 due to injury to win a job during spring training. After a sizzling start, he now ranks as one of the safer roster filler options in the AL thanks to the combination of his improved skills and the support provided by Baltimore's new relievers. While Parrish offers little upside beyond decent qualitative stats and an occasional vultured win, he seems a surprisingly safe guy to target when trolling free agent lists for an injury replacement. 4 DOM, 0 DUL, 1 DIS J.C. Romero, BOS(45404): 0-0 on a 1:0 K:BB in 3.1 IP over 5 G with 6 H, 1 HR, an 8-4 G-F, and an 8.10 ERA. No, Romero still hasn't regained the fairly impressive skill level he demonstrated much earlier this decade in Minnesota, as illustrated by his unacceptable qualitative stats to date. He strikes out too few batters while allowing too many hits, so even though I expect an improved walk rate, he still appears unlikely to emerge as a roto asset. If you rostered Romero during the spring in the hope of seeing him emerge as a potential option for saves, deal or cut him now before he drags down your numbers even further. 3 DOM, 3 DUL, 0 DIS Alan Embree, OAK(343443): 0-0 on a 3:0 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 6 G with 4 H, 0 HR, a 7-8 G-F, and a 0.00 ERA. Even during an awful 2005 campaign in which he posted an ERA over 7.50, Embree generally demonstrated fairly solid skills other than a lofty homer rate. Last year in San Diego he fixed that issue thanks to PETCO, and moving to McAfee Coliseum for 2007 shouldn't send his ERA and WHIP spiraling toward his 2005 numbers. Bob Geren appears happy to employ him as a true lefty specialist, which means Embree should post fairly strong qualitative stats, along with adding an occasional win to your ledger. Consider him a remarkably low-risk reliever to target whenever you need a replacement for a sidelined pitcher. 3 DOM, 2 DUL, 0 DIS Justin Duchscherer, OAK(34553): 1-0 on a 5:0 K:BB in 5.1 IP over 5 G with 3 H, 1 HR, a 6-6 G-F, and a 5.06 ERA. Though Huston Street remains firmly established at the end of Oakland's bullpen, Duchscherer ranks beyond only the Angels' Scot Shields in likely fantasy value among current AL set-up men. He owns a well-rounded skill set that makes him a particularly advantageous asset when supported by Oakland's defense and comparably impressive solid like Kiko Calero, Alan Embree, and Street. I suspect Duchscherer remains owned in every AL and mixed league, but I see no reason not to target him if his current owner either still seems worried about Duchscherer's previous injury issues or even just doesn't value him in the proper $8-12 range. We'll continue tomorrow with the first in-season NL LPR article of the year. Internet Challenge Clearly we erred with Jorge Julio, so after considering a half-dozen closers, including Jose Valverde, Salomon Torres, Todd Jones, and Chris Ray, we settled on either Bob Wickman or Ryan Dempster. Since both pitchers face our current closers about a half-dozen times, we broke the tie by considering that Dempster strikes out more batters and that he also costs $110 less than Wickman. Despite Josh Bard's injury, we also opted to cut Julio since even if he gets his job back, we'd rather need to add a new closer than to deal with a replacement catcher if Bard returns in only two weeks. SP(6) Johan Santana: Fri:TB(S.Kazmir) Roy Oswalt: Fri:@PHI(B.Myers) Ben Sheets: Fri:@STL(An.Reyes) Jake Peavy: Sat:@LAD(J.Schmidt) Roy Halladay: Fri:DET(J.Bonderman) Brandon Webb: Fri:COL(J.Fogg) Josh Beckett: Sun:LAA(Er.Santana) Daisuke Matsuzaka: No start. Dan Haren: Fri:NYY(K.Igawa) Jon Papelbon: 3 Home vs. LAA. Rich Harden: Sun:NYY(A.Pettitte) Felix Hernandez: No start. Matt Cain: Sat:@PIT(I.Snell) With six decent home starts and Papelbon, we'll deploy everyone except Beckett, who simply seems too risky given the strong possibility of snow in Boston on Sunday. Offensively, Bard's injury returns Iannetta to the lineup for a couple of weeks, and then for cap reasons, Kaz Matsui replaces Hanley Ramirez. Garrett Atkins, Matt Holliday, and Shane Victorino all stay benched. Rotohelp.com(12th lg; 368th overall) Week 2b: April 13-April 15 C Brian McCann 880 C Chris Iannetta 340 1B Ryan Howard 1420 1B Travis Hafner 1380 2B Howie Kendrick 520 2B Ian Kinsler 630 3B David Wright 1550 3B Mark Teahen 750 SS Jose Reyes 1610 SS Bill Hall 900 OF Manny Ramirez 1390 OF Alex Rios 1000 OF J.D. Drew 940 OF Willy Taveras 860 OF Rocco Baldelli 750 OF Delmon Young 750 DH Albert Pujols 2050 DH Kazuo Matsui 500 SP Johan Santana 1960 SP Roy Halladay 1140 SP Brandon Webb 1130 SP Dan Haren 940 SP Rich Harden 890 SP Jon Papelbon 900 RP Francisco Cordero 1260 RP Takashi Saito 1200 RP Ryan Dempster 1130 RP Joe Borowski 1110 Total Week 2b Salary: 29880 Today's Fantasy Rx: The postponement of last week's Seattle/Cleveland series means that both teams should play three more games over the balance of the year than any of their competitors. Therefore, when evaluating any deal involving Mariners or Indians, remember that anyone from those teams you acquire offers at least a little additional quantitative upside above and beyond their normal values. Conversely, hesitate a little longer before moving hitters on those two teams due to the extra series of games you likely will lose in the deal. Click here to read the previous article. Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
	Daily Fantasy Rx Out of the Frying Pan Article Archives