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March
29th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 NL Batter Draft Values

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Download the spreadsheet with our complete projected stats for 4x4, 5x5, simulation, and Scoresheet leagues here. The file also includes position eligibility data based upon the standard 20 game minimum.

The Draft Values presented below only apply to NL-only 12 team leagues using traditional 4x4 or 5x5 scoring and $260 of cap space to draft 14 hitters and 9 pitchers employing a 70/30 hitting/pitching split. Based on league data and recent trends, we selected a .2608 BA as the baseline value necessary to calculate the BA Category Dollars.

Simulation league projections involve computing Runs Above Replacement for each hitter, and then our Scoresheet projections adjust that RAR to consider each player's defensive rating in that format.

While we undoubtedly missed a few dozen players who unexpectedly will reach the majors this season, we included the only 323 National League batters with any significant chance of deserving a nomination in your 2007 spring draft.


Top 3 AL 4x4 Batters: Albert Pujols, $53; Miguel Cabrera, $49; David Wright, $45.

Top 3 AL 5x5 Batters: Albert Pujols, $51; Miguel Cabrera, $47; David Wright, $43.

Top 3 Sim Batters: Albert Pujols, 83.3 RAR; Miguel Cabrera, 72.1 RAR; Lance Berkman, 65.5 RAR.

Top 3 Scoresheet Batters: Albert Pujols, 94.1 ARAR; Carlos Beltran, 66.8 ARAR; Lance Berkman, 63.5 ARAR.


Most Likely Fantasy Breakouts by Position:

C: Russ Martin, Chris Snyder.

1B: Xavier Nady, Conor Jackson.

3B: Wilson Betemit, Jose Bautista.

2B: Chris Burke, Jose Castillo.

SS: Khalil Greene, Cesar Izturis.

OF: Willy Taveras, Shane Victorino, Scott Hairston, Ryan Langerhans, Terrmel Sledge.

Top 3 Batters who could beat this projection with more AB: Chris Duffy, Kaz Matsui, Lastings Milledge.

"Cheap" speed that should not cost this much: Ryan Theriot, Nate McLouth, Alfredo Amezaga.

Top 3 "$1" Catchers: Carlos Ruiz, Chris Snyder, Yorvit Torrealba.

Top 2007 NL Batter Sleeper: Shane Victorino, $22/$22. While often shoehorned into the role of a fourth outfielder in the minds of many fantasy analysts, Victorino appears Philadelphia's outfielder most likely to play every day considering Jason Werth and Michael Bourn comprise the logical alternatives. Continued rumors regarding an Aaron Rowand trade further support the idea that Victorino will play every day, giving him tremendous upside as the likely #2 hitter between leadoff man Jimmy Rollins and Philadelphia's heart-of-the-order, Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, and Pat Burrell. Off-season reports also indicate that the Phillies want Victorino to run, and since he twice exceeded 44 steals in the minors, I see nothing preventing him from resuming his basestealing ways. Perhaps he will not emerge as a roto stud until 2008, after he turns 26 in November, but given the negligible buzz surrounding someone capable of clearing 100 runs, Victorino looks like a great investment, who only should cost you around $15 in most leagues.


Rotohelp's 2007 NL Batter Projected Draft Values

Batter			4x4$	5x5$	RAR	ARAR
Abercrombie, Reggie	-2	-3	-0.2	-0.2
Abreu, Tony		-2	-2	-0.1	-0.1
Alfonzo, Eliezer	-3	-3	-5.2	-6.0
Alomar, Jr., Sandy	-2	-3	-1.5	-2.2
Alou, Moises		12	11	9.2	3.7
Amezaga, Alfredo	3	2	-5.7	-5.7
Anderson, Drew		-2	-3	-1.0	-1.0
Anderson, Josh		-2	-3	-1.2	-1.2
Anderson, Marlon	5	4	4.8	3.0
Andino, Robert		-2	-3	-1.1	-1.1
Ankiel, Rick		-3	-3	-0.9	-0.9
Ardoin, Danny		-4	-4	-1.6	-1.6
Atkins, Garrett		32	31	36.3	29.1
Aurilia, Rich		8	8	11.7	4.0
Ausmus, Brad		-7	-6	-15.8	-12.1
Aybar, Willy		4	3	1.2	0.2
Baker, Jeff		4	3	2.3	1.4
Barajas, Rod		2	2	-1.0	2.5
Bard, Josh		9	9	9.4	7.7
Barden, Brian		-2	-3	-1.3	-1.3
Barmes, Clint		-1	-1	0.2	1.0
Barrett, Michael	13	12	18.6	11.2
Bautista, Jose		4	5	-4.3	-8.8
Bay, Jason		37	36	54.7	47.4
Bellhorn, Mark		-4	-4	-3.3	-2.5
Belliard, Ron		3	2	1.9	1.9
Beltran, Carlos		29	30	50.9	66.8
Bennett, Gary		-3	-3	-5.3	-6.8
Berkman, Lance		41	39	63.5	63.5
Betemit, Wilson		5	6	0.2	3.0
Bigbie, Larry		-2	-3	-1.1	-1.1
Biggio, Craig		0	2	-4.4	-9.2
Bixler, Brian		-2	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Blanco, Gregor		-2	-3	-0.3	-0.3
Blanco, Henry		-2	-3	-5.0	-1.8
Blum, Geoff		-4	-3	-5.1	-6.6
Bonds, Barry		11	12	35.9	29.8
Boone, Aaron		1	1	-8.3	-9.1
Borchard, Joe		-2	-2	-2.8	-3.6
Bourn, Michael		1	1	-1.3	-1.3
Bowen, Rob		-1	-1	0.2	0.2
Branyan, Russ		1	1	5.1	3.2
Braun, Ryan		3	3	3.3	3.3
Broadway, Larry		-3	-3	-2.5	-2.5
Bruntlett, Eric		-1	-2	0.6	0.6
Budde, Ryan		-3	-4	-1.0	-1.0
Burke, Chris		13	14	6.2	2.8
Burrell, Pat		15	16	33.2	25.5
Byrnes, Eric		24	23	15.6	19.6
Cabrera, Miguel		49	47	72.1	62.0
Callaspo, Alberto	9	9	4.8	4.8
Cameron, Mike		20	20	18.0	29.5
Carroll, Jamey		7	7	3.0	4.6
Carter, Chris		-3	-3	-0.7	-0.7
Castillo, Jose		8	8	4.8	-0.3
Casto, Kory		1	2	-2.6	-2.6
Castro, Bernie		-2	-3	-1.1	-1.1
Castro, Juan		1	0	-1.1	3.8
Castro, Ramon		-1	-1	2.2	4.0
Cedeno, Ronny		-2	-2	-6.1	-6.8
Chavez, Endy		8	7	0.3	2.0
Church, Ryan		8	8	6.9	7.8
Clark, Brady		6	6	2.4	6.0
Clark, Doug		-2	-3	-0.2	-0.2
Clark, Tony		0	0	-4.6	-5.5
Closser, J.D.		-3	-4	0.1	0.1
Coats, Buck		-3	-3	-2.7	-2.7
Colina, Alvin		-3	-3	-0.4	-0.4
Conine, Jeff		2	2	-10.6	-11.5
Conrad, Brooks		-3	-3	-0.1	-0.1
Coste, Chris		1	0	1.2	1.2
Cota, Humberto		-5	-5	-4.6	-4.6
Counsell, Craig		-3	-2	-9.8	-5.3
Crosby, Bubba		-2	-3	-1.2	-1.2
Cruz, Jr., Jose		0	1	2.8	2.8
Cruz, Luis		-3	-3	0.1	0.1
DaVanon, Jeff		5	5	1.1	1.9
Davis, Rajai		-2	-3	-1.3	-1.3
De Aza, Alejandro	9	9	-8.7	-8.7
de la Rosa, Tomas	-3	-3	-0.1	-0.1
Delgado, Carlos		25	25	33.1	27.8
Denorfia, Chris		8	7	4.1	5.0
DeRosa, Mark		6	7	4.8	4.8
Diaz, Einar		-3	-4	-1.2	-1.2
Diaz, Matt		12	11	5.5	3.7
DiFelice, Mike		-4	-4	-1.7	-1.7
Dobbs, Greg		-1	-1	-1.1	-1.1
Doumit, Ryan		0	0	1.2	2.0
Drew, Stephen		20	19	22.8	20.1
Duffy, Chris		14	13	-4.8	0.3
Duncan, Chris		7	7	7.0	2.5
Dunn, Adam		9	11	27.3	17.0
Durham, Ray		16	16	22.0	14.6
Easley, Damion		-6	-5	-3.0	-5.2
Eckstein, David		14	15	4.1	7.4
Edmonds, Jim		12	13	19.3	28.0
Eldred, Brad		1	0	-0.6	-1.5
Ellison, Jason		3	3	-2.0	-1.1
Encarnacion, Edwin	15	15	10.9	5.1
Encarnacion, Juan	17	17	10.7	10.7
Ensberg, Morgan		14	14	22.7	24.7
Escobar, Alex		1	0	2.6	3.5
Esposito, Brian		-4	-4	-1.9	-1.9
Estrada, Johnny		7	7	0.4	0.4
Ethier, Andre		8	7	2.3	0.6
Everett, Adam		3	4	-1.8	13.8
Feliz, Pedro		4	6	-16.5	-6.6
Fick, Rob		-2	-2	-1.1	-2.7
Fielder, Prince		11	13	-0.6	-6.2
Finley, Steve		6	6	5.4	6.4
Flores, Jesus		-3	-4	-2.6	-2.6
Floyd, Cliff		13	12	16.3	13.4
Franco, Julio		0	0	-6.0	-6.0
Francoeur, Jeff		16	16	4.5	0.1
Frandsen, Kevin		-1	-1	-6.0	-5.2
Freel, Ryan		17	17	1.1	3.7
Furcal, Rafael		29	28	25.2	33.3
Gall, John		-3	-4	-1.2	-1.2
Garciaparra, Nomar	22	22	14.8	17.9
Gil, Geronimo		-3	-3	-0.4	-0.4
Gil, Jerry		-3	-3	-0.1	-0.1
Giles, Brian		15	16	16.9	14.2
Giles, Marcus		21	21	27.5	34.1
Gomez, Alexis		0	-1	1.3	1.3
Gomez, Carlos		-1	-2	-0.6	-0.6
Gonzalez, Adrian	21	21	15.0	16.0
Gonzalez, Alex		9	10	9.7	17.6
Gonzalez, Carlos	-2	-3	0.0	0.0
Gonzalez, Luis		11	12	10.5	4.3
Gotay, Ruben		-3	-4	-1.0	-1.0
Graffanino, Tony	3	4	2.2	4.7
Green, Shawn		9	9	7.9	4.3
Greene, Khalil		10	10	18.1	18.1
Greene, Todd		-2	-3	-0.1	-0.9
Griffey, Jr., Ken	7	8	8.5	7.6
Gross, Gabe		5	5	9.7	9.7
Guzman, Cristian	-3	-1	-11.1	-11.1
Gwynn, Anthony		-1	-2	-1.6	-1.6
Hairston, Scott		5	5	6.9	6.0
Hall, Bill		24	24	42.9	42.9
Hamilton, Josh		3	3	-4.6	-4.6
Hammock, Robby		-1	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Hardy, J.J.		0	1	3.3	0.9
Harris, Willie		-2	-3	-1.0	-1.0
Hart, Corey		17	17	7.0	6.1
Hatteberg, Scott	6	6	-5.4	-7.2
Hawpe, Brad		13	13	17.6	10.2
Helms, Wes		11	11	8.8	0.1
Helton, Todd		25	24	31.3	36.6
Hermida, Jeremy		12	11	9.2	9.2
Hernandez, Anderson	-2	-3	-1.0	-1.0
Hernandez, Jose		-2	-3	-8.8	-8.8
Holliday, Matt		30	30	37.2	35.1
Hoover, Paul		-3	-4	-1.1	-1.1
Hopper, Norris		-1	-1	-2.8	-2.8
Howard, Ryan		26	26	36.6	32.4
Hudson, Orlando		11	11	12.1	24.8
Iannetta, Chris		6	6	14.6	12.7
Ishikawa, Travis	-2	-3	-0.7	-0.7
Izturis, Cesar		3	4	0.0	3.2
Jackson, Conor		16	17	5.4	3.5
Jacobs, Mike		4	5	-10.4	-14.0
Jaramillo, Jason	-3	-3	0.1	0.1
Jenkins, Geoff		13	14	21.5	19.6
Jimenez, D'Angelo	-4	-4	-1.4	-1.4
Johnson, Ben		1	0	-0.2	-0.2
Johnson, Kelly		6	7	5.4	5.4
Johnson, Nick		10	10	16.6	17.6
Jones, Andruw		23	24	34.3	47.4
Jones, Brandon		-1	-2	1.7	1.7
Jones, Chipper		22	22	29.7	21.5
Jones, Jacque		16	16	7.3	5.4
Kearns, Austin		11	12	17.2	18.1
Kelly, Don		-2	-3	-0.8	-0.8
Kemp, Matt		1	1	0.6	0.6
Kennedy, Adam		19	19	8.3	11.0
Kent, Jeff		17	16	26.8	19.3
Keppinger, Jeff		-1	-2	-0.5	-0.5
Klesko, Ryan		4	4	7.4	3.0
Knoedler, Justin	-4	-4	-1.7	-1.7
Koshansky, Joe		-2	-3	0.0	0.0
Koskie, Corey		-2	-3	0.7	0.7
Kouzmanoff, Kevin	15	15	5.4	5.4
Krynzel, David		-2	-3	-1.9	-1.9
La Roche, Andy		1	0	0.4	0.4
Laforest, Pete		-3	-3	-0.4	-0.4
Lamb, Mike		7	7	1.0	0.0
Lane, Jason		-1	0	2.3	-1.2
Langerhans, Ryan	4	4	7.9	7.9
LaRoche, Adam		6	8	-3.6	-5.4
Lee, Carlos		28	27	27.5	17.9
Lee, Derrek		26	26	26.7	34.0
Lewis, Fred		-2	-2	-0.6	-0.6
Lieberthal, Mike	-1	-1	-2.0	-2.0
Linden, Todd		2	2	1.3	-0.4
Lo Duca, Paul		11	11	4.1	-1.8
Logan, Nook		5	5	-3.3	1.8
Loney, James		6	5	2.2	2.2
Lopez, Felipe		19	19	4.9	-7.7
Loretta, Mark		9	9	5.7	9.2
Mabry, John		-1	-2	-3.5	-5.3
Marrero, Eli		-3	-4	-2.3	-2.3
Martin, Russ		11	11	7.1	7.1
Martinez, Ramon E.	-1	-2	0.7	-0.9
Matos, Luis		0	-1	-2.5	-1.6
Matsui, Kazuo		13	12	4.3	6.0
McAnulty, Paul		-3	-3	-2.4	-2.4
McCann, Brian		22	21	27.7	24.8
McCutchen, Andrew	-2	-2	-1.4	-1.4
McLouth, Nate		3	3	-2.9	-2.0
Mench, Kevin		6	6	5.0	1.4
Miles, Aaron		1	2	2.9	-1.8
Milledge, Lastings	7	6	4.5	2.7
Miller, Corky		-3	-3	0.1	0.1
Miller, Damian		1	0	3.5	3.5
Moeller, Chad		-4	-4	-4.1	-5.6
Molina, Ben		5	5	-0.3	0.5
Molina, Yadier		0	0	-5.2	5.8
Montero, Miguel		2	2	1.4	0.5
Moore, Scott		-2	-3	-0.5	-0.5
Morton, Colt		-2	-3	0.1	0.1
Munson, Eric		-3	-4	-1.2	-1.2
Murton, Matt		9	9	4.5	3.6
Nady, Xavier		18	17	2.1	5.1
Newhan, David		-2	-3	-4.4	-4.4
Niekro, Lance		-1	-2	-3.1	-2.2
Nix, Laynce		-1	-2	-1.7	-0.8
Nunez, Abraham O.	-2	-1	-12.6	-10.9
Olivo, Miguel		-2	-1	-10.9	-4.4
Orr, Pete		-1	-2	-1.4	-1.4
Pagan, Angel		-1	-2	-0.3	-0.3
Palmeiro, Orlando	0	-1	-1.8	-2.6
Patterson, Eric		-2	-3	-0.9	-0.9
Paulino, Ronny		10	9	7.0	8.8
Pena, Brayan		0	-1	-3.3	-3.3
Pence, Hunter		0	0	1.8	1.8
Perez, Miguel		-3	-4	-1.2	-1.2
Perez, Tomas		-4	-4	-1.5	-1.5
Phillips, Brandon	16	15	5.6	3.8
Pie, Felix		1	0	-0.3	-0.3
Pierre, Juan		35	33	-8.1	0.5
Prado, Martin		-2	-3	-1.8	-1.8
Pujols, Albert		53	51	83.3	94.1
Quentin, Carlos		9	10	10.0	7.3
Quintanilla, Omar	-2	-3	0.3	0.3
Quintero, Humberto	-3	-3	-3.5	-3.5
Ramirez, Aramis		29	29	34.6	22.2
Ramirez, Hanley		32	32	19.3	12.3
Reed, Eric		-2	-3	-2.5	-1.7
Renteria, Edgar		19	19	20.8	15.6
Repko, Jason		-2	-3	-0.9	-0.9
Restovich, Mike		-3	-3	-0.3	-0.3
Reyes, Jose		44	43	27.2	22.7
Richar, Danny		-2	-3	0.0	0.0
Rivera, Mike		-2	-3	-0.6	-1.4
Roberson, Chris		0	-1	-1.1	-1.1
Roberts, Dave		21	21	4.2	7.7
Robles, Oscar		-3	-4	-0.7	-0.7
Rodriguez, John		1	0	2.0	1.1
Rodriguez, Mike		-2	-3	-1.0	-1.0
Rolen, Scott		27	27	28.7	40.5
Rollins, Jimmy		31	31	32.8	28.2
Romero, Alex		-1	-2	0.8	0.8
Roriguez, Guillermo	-3	-4	-1.0	-1.0
Ross, Cody		1	1	0.9	0.9
Ross, Dave		1	1	8.8	13.6
Rottino, Vinny		-1	-2	-2.1	-2.1
Rowand, Aaron		12	12	3.5	9.8
Ruiz, Carlos		6	6	7.1	7.1
Saenz, Olmedo		3	2	1.7	-0.2
Salazar, Jeff		-2	-2	0.4	0.4
Saltalamacchia, Jarrod	-3	-3	-0.1	-0.1
Sanchez, Freddy		12	12	9.2	4.3
Sandoval, Danny		-3	-4	-0.9	-0.9
Santos, Chad		-3	-3	-1.2	-1.2
Schneider, Brian	2	2	-3.8	2.9
Schumaker, Skip		-2	-3	-0.5	-0.5
Scott, Luke		12	12	17.6	14.8
Sledge, Terrmel		4	5	3.2	1.5
Snelling, Chris		2	2	2.0	1.1
Snyder, Chris		1	0	0.3	2.0
Soriano, Alfonso	36	36	30.1	31.1
Soto, Geovany		-2	-3	0.3	0.3
Spiezio, Scott		2	2	-2.3	-5.9
Spilborghs, Ryan	5	4	3.7	3.7
Stewart, Ian		-2	-3	0.5	0.5
Stinnett, Kelly		-3	-4	-1.0	-1.0
Sullivan, Cory		0	-1	1.8	1.8
Sweeney, Mark		0	-1	-1.7	-0.8
Taguchi, So		5	5	-0.4	0.4
Tatis, Fernando		-3	-4	-1.7	-1.7
Taveras, Willy		36	34	5.5	14.5
Theriot, Ryan		10	10	3.5	3.5
Thorman, Scott		7	7	5.6	2.9
Torrealba, Yorvit	1	1	-1.0	0.7
Tracy, Chad		26	26	26.4	22.4
Treanor, Matt		-3	-4	-3.9	-2.4
Tulowitzki, Troy	6	8	10.9	9.2
Uggla, Dan		7	9	1.4	-2.8
Utley, Chase		29	29	39.8	50.9
Valdez, Wilson		-4	-5	-2.4	-2.4
Valentin, Javier	3	3	4.7	6.5
Valentin, Jose		4	4	5.2	8.8
Victorino, Shane	22	22	10.2	12.9
Vizquel, Omar		11	12	1.5	11.2
Votto, Joey		4	3	2.8	2.8
Ward, Daryle		2	1	7.8	6.8
Weeks, Rickie		17	18	5.5	-4.4
Werth, Jayson		2	2	0.5	0.5
Willingham, Josh	8	8	15.1	4.3
Wilson, Craig		5	5	-2.6	-2.6
Wilson, Jack		11	12	7.9	19
Wilson, Josh		-2	-3	-1.5	-1.5
Wilson, Preston		14	14	8.9	9.8
Winn, Randy		16	16	5.7	9.3
Wood, Jason		-3	-4	-1.8	-1.8
Woodward, Chris		-3	-3	-1.9	-4.1
Wright, David		45	43	43.2	36.8
Young, Chris B.		13	15	8.1	13.6
Young, Delwyn		-2	-3	-0.3	-0.3
Young, Dmitri		1	2	-14	-17
Zimmerman, Ryan		21	21	-1.9	-1


Please feel free to write us with your questions and comments.

Tomorrow we will post and review our AL pitcher projections.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Owners looking for good mid-season trade bait in keeper leagues should target the following players if available for less than $5: Carlos Ruiz, PHI; James Loney, LAD; Kory Casto, WAS; Alberto Callaspo, ARI; Lastings Millege, NYM; Scott Thorman, ATL; Scott Hairston, ARI; Jeff Baker, COL; Todd Linden, SF; and Matt Kemp, LAD.


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