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March
28th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 AL Batter Draft Values

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Download the spreadsheet with our complete projected stats for 4x4, 5x5, simulation, and Scoresheet leagues here. The file also includes position eligibility data based upon the standard 20 game minimum.

The Draft Values presented below only apply to AL-only 12 team leagues using traditional 4x4 or 5x5 scoring and $260 of cap space to draft 14 hitters and 9 pitchers employing a 70/30 hitting/pitching split. Based on league data and recent trends, we selected a .266 BA as the baseline value necessary to calculate the BA Category Dollars.

Simulation league projections involve computing Runs Above Replacement for each hitter, and then our Scoresheet projections adjust that RAR to consider each player's defensive rating in that format.

While we undoubtedly missed a few dozen players who unexpectedly will reach the majors this season, we included the only 301 American League batters with any significant chance of deserving a nomination in your 2007 spring draft.


Top 3 AL 4x4 Batters: Alex Rodriguez, $54; Ichiro Suzuki, $47; Carl Crawford, $45.

Top 3 AL 5x5 Batters: Alex Rodriguez, $50; Ichiro Suzuki, $43; Carl Crawford, $41.

Top 3 Sim Batters: Alex Rodriguez, 62.4 RAR; David Ortiz, 60.4 RAR; Manny Ramirez, 57.0 RAR.

Top 3 Scoresheet Batters: Mark Teixeira, 60.8 ARAR; Alex Rodriguez, 58.2 ARAR; Travis Hafner, 44.0 ARAR.


Most Likely Fantasy Breakouts by Position:

C: Dioner Navarro, John Buck.

1B: Ryan Shealy, Dan Johnson.

3B: Hank Blalock, Mark Teahen, Maicer Izturis.

2B: Jorge Cantu, Howie Kendrick.

SS: Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist.

OF: Rocco Baldelli, David DeJesus, Nelson Cruz, Jeremy Reed.

Top 3 Batters who could beat this projection with more AB: B.J. Upton, Esteban German, Adam Lind.

"Cheap" speed that should not cost this much: Esteban German, Maicer Izturis, Willie Bloomquist.

Top 3 "$1" Catchers: John Buck, Mike Redmond, Kelly Shoppach.

Top 2007 AL Batter Sleeper: Hank Blalock, $27/$26. While I considered several candidates for this slot, most notably Jhonny Peralta, Jorge Cantu, and Rocco Baldelli, Blalock simply seems the best bet to reclaim his former fantasy glory. Despite possessing more than four years of big league experience, he just turned 26 in November, and after the stifling presence of Buck Showalter, Ron Washington seems the perfect catalyst for Blalock's reemergence as a legitimate MVP candidate. With decent skills, the best hitters' park in the league, a division fairly bereft of competent southpaw starters, and most importantly, plenty of RBI opportunities thanks to a lineup slot behind Mike Young and Mark Teixeira, Blalock merits a significant investment in every AL fantasy league.


Rotohelp's 2007 AL Batter Projected Draft Values

Batter			4x4$	5x5$	RAR	ARAR
Abreu, Bobby		44	41	41.5	36.5
Adams, Russ		2	3	1.5	-0.9
Anderson, Brian		2	3	-1.6	2.0
Anderson, Garret	3	3	-7.8	-9.5
Arias, Joaquin		1	1	-1.1	-1.1
Aubrey, Michael		-1	-1	-0.5	-0.5
Aybar, Erick		6	5	-3.4	-3.4
Bako, Paul		-6	-5	-7.7	-7.0
Baldelli, Rocco		31	29	21.6	28.7
Balentien, Wladimir	0	0	0.0	0.0
Bankston, Wes		-1	-1	-0.5	-0.5
Barfield, Josh		5	6	-2.1	-2.1
Bartlett, Jason		16	15	0.6	9.9
Barton, Daric		1	1	0.7	0.7
Beltre, Adrian		12	13	15.0	26.3
Berroa, Angel		1	1	-2.2	-3.0
Betancourt, Yuniesky	15	15	-2.5	-7.4
Blake, Casey		7	8	3.6	1.8
Blalock, Hank		27	26	25.6	29.4
Blanco, Andres		-1	-1	-2.1	-2.1
Bloomquist, Willie	4	4	-3.1	-3.9
Bocachica, Hiram	0	0	-0.2	-0.2
Botts, Jason		1	2	2.5	2.5
Bradley, Milton		24	23	19.8	22.7
Brignac, Reid		1	1	1.4	1.4
Broussard, Ben		0	1	-1.5	-1.5
Brown, Emil		17	16	15.3	13.4
Brown, Jeremy		-1	-1	-0.4	-0.4
Buck, John		-1	0	-6.3	-2.9
Buck, Travis		1	0	0.0	0.0
Burke, Jamie		-3	-3	-4.5	-4.5
Butler, Billy		3	3	0.9	0.9
Bynum, Freddie		-1	-1	-2.9	-2.9
Byrd, Marlon		3	3	1.8	2.7
Cabrera, Melky		4	5	-5.4	-7.9
Cabrera, Orlando	16	17	5.7	2.3
Cairo, Miguel		1	1	-4.4	-5.9
Cannizaro, Andy		-1	-1	-0.9	-0.9
Cano, Robinson		22	20	20.1	18.3
Cantu, Jorge		21	20	22.7	10.2
Casanova, Raul		-1	-1	-0.4	-0.4
Casey, Sean		12	12	-0.9	-0.9
Casilla, Alexi		3	3	0.2	0.2
Castillo, Alberto	-1	-1	-1.3	-1.3
Castillo, Luis		26	25	9.3	16.9
Catalanotto, Frank	18	17	13.9	11.1
Chavez, Eric		17	17	29.2	39.8
Chavez, Raul		-2	-2	-2.2	-2.2
Choo, Shin-soo		3	3	0.3	0.3
Cintron, Alex		6	6	-2.5	-7.2
Cirillo, Jeff		6	6	-0.8	-1.7
Clayton, Royce		-1	0	-7.5	-10.6
Clement, Jeff		-1	-1	-0.4	-0.4
Clevlen, Brent		-1	-1	-1.3	-1.3
Cora, Alex		-1	0	-5.9	-3.6
Costa, Shane		0	0	-2.6	-2.6
Crawford, Carl		45	41	17.9	21.8
Crede, Joe		5	7	2.1	6.5
Crisp, Coco		23	22	10.1	13.9
Crosby, Bobby		3	4	6.7	12.8
Crowe, Trevor		0	0	-1.4	-1.4
Cruz, Nelson		9	10	2.0	1.1
Cuddyer, Mike		9	11	4.7	1.1
Damon, Johnny		33	32	19.7	27.4
DeJesus, David		18	18	10.6	18.1
Dellucci, David		4	4	3.1	-1.3
Diaz, Victor		0	0	0.5	0.5
Drew, J.D.		17	18	28.9	30.9
Dubois, Jason		-1	-1	-0.5	-0.5
Dukes, Elijah		8	9	1.9	1.9
Duncan, Eric		-1	-1	-0.3	-0.3
Durazo, Erubiel		-1	-1	-0.3	-1.1
Dye, Jermaine		12	13	9.4	3.8
Ellis, Mark		6	8	8.4	16.2
Ellsbury, Jacoby	1	1	-0.4	-0.4
Erstad, Darin		7	8	-6.4	-0.4
Evans, Terry		0	0	-0.8	-0.8
Fahey, Brandon		-1	-1	-2.1	-2.8
Fasano, Sal		-2	-2	-1.9	-2.7
Fields, Josh		2	2	1.4	1.4
Figgins, Chone		21	19	0.1	-0.8
Fiorentino, Jeff	-1	-1	-1.7	-1.7
Ford, Lew		3	4	-3.6	-3.6
Francisco, Ben		1	1	-0.2	-0.2
Garciaparra, Michael	0	0	-0.2	-0.2
Gardner, Brett		0	0	-1.7	-1.7
Garko, Ryan		2	3	-0.4	-1.3
Gathright, Joey		5	5	-3.6	-1.1
German, Esteban		15	14	12.1	10.4
Giambi, Jason		11	12	35.8	27.6
Giarratano, Tony	-1	-1	-1.2	-1.2
Gibbons, Jay		9	9	8.7	3.2
Ginter, Keith		-1	-1	0.1	0.1
Glaus, Troy		8	10	21.5	17.8
Gload, Ross		8	7	0.9	0.0
Goleski, Ryan		-1	-1	-0.1	-0.1
Gomes, Jonny		3	4	6.7	2.1
Gomez, Chris		2	3	-7.9	-7.1
Gonzalez, Wiki		-1	-1	-1.3	-1.3
Gordon, Alex		14	15	11.2	11.2
Gorneault, Nick		-1	-1	-0.4	-0.4
Granderson, Curtis	0	3	-3.5	7.2
Grudzielanek, Mark	10	11	0.4	7.0
Guerrero, Vladimir	40	37	30.8	24.9
Guillen, Carlos		29	28	24.9	27.8
Guillen, Jose		6	7	1.5	0.6
Gutierrez, Franklin	0	0	-2.1	-2.1
Guzman, Freddy		2	1	-1.7	-1.7
Guzman, Joel		2	2	0.3	0.3
Hafner, Travis		26	26	44.0	44.0
Hairston, Jerry		0	1	-0.1	-0.1
Hall, Toby		-1	-1	-0.7	-0.7
Harris, Brendan		-1	-1	-0.4	-0.4
Hattig, John		-1	-1	-0.8	-0.8
Heintz, Chris		-1	-1	-1.5	-1.5
Hernandez, Ramon	6	7	3.0	9.5
Hill, Aaron		12	12	5.3	-4.5
Hillenbrand, Shea	12	12	2.5	-8.6
Hinske, Eric		3	3	3.2	1.4
House, J.R.		0	0	0.2	0.2
Huber, Justin		0	0	0.6	0.6
Huff, Aubrey		21	19	19.8	14.2
Hunter, Torii		12	13	2.2	11.5
Ibanez, Raul		14	15	8.3	7.4
Iguchi, Tadahito	17	17	16.3	14.6
Infante, Omar		-1	0	-0.2	0.6
Inge, Brandon		5	7	2.1	11.1
Inglett, Joe		0	0	0.0	0.0
Iwamura, Akinori	15	15	15.1	15.1
Izturis, Maicer		10	11	1.1	1.9
Jeter, Derek		37	35	27.5	22.0
Johjima, Kenji		12	11	-3.8	-2.0
Johnson, Dan		5	6	4.7	2.9
Johnson, Elliot		0	0	-0.3	-0.3
Johnson, Reed		6	7	-1.0	-1.0
Jones, Adam		5	5	1.0	1.9
Kata, Matt		-1	-1	-0.8	-0.8
Kendall, Jason		17	18	-5.0	-10.8
Kendrick, Howie		20	20	16.3	16.3
Kielty, Bobby		2	2	-4.0	-4.8
Kinsler, Ian		12	13	13.1	13.9
Knott, Jon		-1	-1	-1.3	-1.3
Konerko, Paul		24	23	24.4	19.5
Kotchman, Casey		4	5	-4.2	-1.6
Kotsay, Mark		7	7	1.4	4.1
Kottaras, George	-1	-1	-1.0	-1.0
Kubel, Jason		3	5	4.1	0.6
LaHair, Bryan		0	0	0.3	0.3
Laird, Gerald		6	7	0.5	6.8
LaRue, Jason		-9	-7	-8.7	-7.1
LeCroy, Matt		-1	-1	-0.1	-1.0
Lind, Adam		12	11	11.0	9.0
Lofton, Kenny		15	15	-3.1	3.9
Lopez, Jose		6	7	0.0	0.8
Lowell, Mike		17	18	18.0	29.2
Lugo, Julio		30	30	25.1	34.5
Luna, Hector		1	1	-0.7	-2.3
Machado, Alejandro	0	0	-0.3	-0.3
Mackowiak, Rob		2	2	-5.0	-4.2
Majewski, Val		-1	-1	-1.1	-1.1
Markakis, Nick		13	14	3.9	3.0
Marte, Andy		1	3	3.3	4.2
Martinez, Victor	23	22	19.6	4.0
Mathis, Jeff		0	0	-1.4	-1.4
Matsui, Hideki		35	34	32.9	25.1
Matthews, Jr., Gary	9	10	-2.1	5.8
Mauer, Joe		26	25	19.4	26.1
McDonald, John		-2	-1	-6.8	-4.5
McEwing, Joe		-1	-1	-0.8	-0.8
McPherson, Dallas	-1	-1	-0.5	-0.5
Melhuse, Adam		-3	-2	-3.1	-3.1
Michaels, Jason		9	9	3.4	4.3
Mientkiewicz, Doug	0	1	-3.0	1.4
Millar, Kevin		13	13	9.1	10.1
Mirabelli, Doug		-5	-4	-5.3	-6.8
Mohr, Dustan		-2	-2	-0.9	-0.9
Molina, Gustavo		-4	-4	-6.9	-6.9
Molina, Jose		-6	-5	-9.7	-7.5
Monroe, Craig		8	9	0.6	1.5
Mora, Melvin		14	15	-0.2	-6.0
Morales, Kendry		1	1	-1.3	-0.4
Morneau, Justin		20	20	14.3	14.3
Morse, Mike		-1	-1	-1.5	-1.5
Murphy, David		0	0	0.8	0.8
Murphy, Donnie		-1	-1	0.1	0.1
Murphy, Tommy		0	-1	-1.8	-1.8
Napoli, Mike		-3	-1	1.3	2.2
Navarro, Dioner		6	6	0.6	-1.2
Navarro, Oswaldo	-1	-1	-0.8	-0.8
Nieves, Wil		-2	-2	-3.0	-3.0
Nixon, Trot		11	12	10.7	8.0
Norton, Greg		-1	0	-3.2	-2.4
Ochoa, Alex		0	0	0.1	0.1
Ojeda, Miguel		-2	-2	-2.3	-3.1
Olmedo, Ray		1	1	-0.4	-0.4
Ordonez, Magglio	23	23	18.9	13.3
Ortiz, David		34	33	60.4	43.5
Overbay, Lyle		24	23	21.8	28.7
Owens, Jerry		0	0	-1.4	-1.4
Ozuna, Pablo		4	4	-1.9	-1.9
Patterson, Corey	29	27	8.9	18.7
Paul, Josh		-2	-2	-3.8	-4.6
Payton, Jay		4	5	-6.4	-5.5
Pedroia, Dustin		10	10	7.5	9.2
Pena, Carlos		-1	-1	-0.3	-0.3
Pena, Jr., Tony		3	4	-15.5	-15.5
Pena, Wily Mo		8	8	4.7	4.7
Peralta, Jhonny		14	15	18.9	23.4
Perez, Antonio		-3	-2	-3.9	-3.1
Perez, Neifi		-7	-6	-14.0	-9.2
Perez, Timo		-1	-1	-0.7	-0.7
Phelps, Josh		1	1	-3.6	-3.6
Phillips, Andy		-1	-1	-2.2	-2.2
Phillips, Jason L.	-3	-2	-5.1	-8.2
Phillips, Paul		-1	-1	-1.5	-1.5
Piazza, Mike		9	9	9.4	-17.5
Pierzynski, A.J.	4	5	-8.1	-16.4
Podsednik, Scott	18	17	-9.5	-7.8
Polanco, Placido	18	18	4.3	10.9
Posada, Jorge		6	7	6.2	7.1
Pratt, Todd		-2	-2	-1.2	-1.2
Pride, Curtis		-2	-2	-2.1	-2.1
Punto, Nick		10	11	-6.7	-6.7
Quinlan, Robb		4	4	-1.7	-5.0
Quiroz, Guillermo	-1	-1	-0.4	-0.4
Rabe, Josh		-1	-1	-1.3	-1.3
Rabelo, Mike		-1	-1	-1.5	-1.5
Raburn, Ryan		0	0	0.1	0.1
Ramirez, Manny		32	31	57.0	36.3
Redmond, Mike		4	4	-3.2	-1.5
Reed, Jeremy		-2	-1	-3.0	-0.4
Reese, Kevin		0	0	-0.8	-0.8
Riggans, Shawn		0	0	-1.2	-1.2
Rios, Alex		24	23	16.1	19.0
Rivas, Luis		0	0	-1.1	-1.1
Rivera, Juan		2	2	-2.6	-2.6
Rivera, Rene		-2	-2	-1.5	-1.5
Roberts, Brian		30	28	23.0	25.7
Rodriguez, Alex		54	50	62.4	58.2
Rodriguez, Ivan		13	13	-2.4	11.1
Rodriguez, Luis		-1	-1	0.1	0.1
Rogers, Ed		-1	-1	-1.0	-1.0
Rogowski, Casey		1	1	0.2	0.2
Rose, Mike		-1	-1	-0.4	-0.4
Rouse, Mike		-3	-2	-2.5	-2.5
Sanchez, Angel		-2	-2	-1.6	-1.6
Sanders, Reggie		1	2	-0.6	-3.2
Santiago, Ramon		-3	-3	-3.2	-3.2
Sardinha, Bronson	-1	-1	-0.4	-0.4
Scutaro, Marco		0	1	3.5	1.0
Sexson, Richie		10	11	14.3	10.5
Shealy, Ryan		15	16	11.3	11.3
Sheffield, Gary		22	22	15.0	5.0
Shelton, Chris		6	6	6.2	8.2
Shoppach, Kelly		-1	-1	-1.9	-1.0
Sizemore, Grady		20	21	20.1	33.8
Smith, Jason		-5	-4	-4.2	-4.2
Snyder, Brad		0	0	-0.2	-0.2
Sosa, Sammy		-3	-2	-4.5	-11.1
Span, Denard		0	0	-2.2	-2.2
Spivey, Junior		0	0	0.3	0.3
Stairs, Matt		-2	-1	-1.5	-4.1
Stern, Adam		0	0	-2.1	-2.1
Stewart, Chris		-1	-1	-0.4	-0.4
Stewart, Shannon	8	8	-3.7	-7.8
Suzuki, Ichiro		47	43	17.3	24.0
Suzuki, Kurt		0	0	-0.4	-0.4
Sweeney, Mike		12	12	12.9	11.0
Sweeney, Ryan		1	1	-0.4	-0.4
Swisher, Nick		6	8	18.8	18.8
Teahen, Mark		22	22	23.2	14.8
Teixeira, Mark		31	30	48.0	60.8
Tejada, Miguel		31	29	24.4	27.2
Terrero, Luis		1	1	-0.8	-0.8
Thames, Marcus		5	5	6.7	4.8
Thomas, Frank		21	20	30.8	30.8
Thome, Jim		8	9	20.3	8.9
Thompson, Kevin		0	0	-1.2	-1.2
Tiffee, Terry		-1	-1	-1.1	-1.1
Torres, Eider		0	0	-1.1	-1.1
Tyner, Jason		1	1	-8.0	-8.0
Upton, B.J.		16	15	3.1	1.4
Uribe, Juan		5	6	4.5	13.6
Varitek, Jason		6	7	3.9	1.2
Vazquez, Ramon		-1	0	-1.1	-1.9
Vidro, Jose		10	10	9.6	-2.7
Watson, Brandon		-1	-1	-1.3	-1.3
Wells, Vernon		25	24	20.8	36.7
White, Rondell		6	6	-0.5	-2.2
Wigginton, Ty		5	5	10.0	4.8
Wilkerson, Brad		7	9	11.9	12.9
Willits, Reggie		1	1	-1.6	-0.8
Wilson, Bobby		-1	-1	-1.3	-1.3
Wilson, Michael		-1	-1	-0.4	-0.4
Wilson, Vance		-4	-3	-8.0	-8.0
Wood, Brandon		1	1	2.0	2.0
Youkilis, Kevin		17	18	13.0	18.6
Young, Delmon		30	27	6.4	3.6
Young, Mike		42	39	33.6	28.0
Zaun, Gregg		1	3	0.8	-6.9
Zobrist, Ben		5	6	0.8	-0.8


Please feel free to write us with your questions and comments.

Tomorrow we will post and review our NL batter projections.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Owners looking for good mid-season trade bait in keeper leagues should target the following players if available for less than $5: Jeff Mathis, LAA; Ryan Garko, CLE; Kendry Morales, LAA; Erick Aybar, LAA; Elijah Dukes, TB; Adam Jones, SEA; Melky Cabrera, NYY; Ryan Sweeney, CHW; and Jason Botts, TEX.


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