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March
27th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 Top NL Fantasy Prospects

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

As mentioned yesterday, we're presenting prospect lists specifically geared towards fantasy baseball with no consideration of "peak" or "long-term potential" other than what a player will contribute in standard 4x4, 5x5, and simulation leagues.


We ranked players in four lists for this article. The top 150 prospects list is meant for Ultra drafts, the top 42 prospects is intended exclusively for owners in extremely deep leagues who desire the best prospect trade bait, and our top 25 prospects of 2007-08 list is meant for traditional roto leagues with three-round minor league drafts. The final list of 24 prospects focuses on simulation leagues based on a player's likelihood of contributing as an everyday player, weighted towards key defensive positions, as well as any pitchers prepared to emerge as a viable starters or key relievers within the next two years.

I projected four values for each prospect listed below: his likely value in 2007, his 2007 upside, his likely 2008 value, and his likely long-term upside considering the prospect's tools, skills, and age. After averaging these values, weighted heavily towards potential 2007 considerations as well as adjusting the relative value of pitchers downward due to the greater volatility in projecting pitcher development, we arrived at a rough ranking of the prospects in each league.


A few players on the first list will be minor league veterans who only need a chance to succeed in the majors. I designated these players with an asterisk for those of you only interested in drafting more traditional prospects.

Rule 5 draftees have a ^ next to their names; their placement on the list assumes they remain with their new teams. Ignore them if returned to their former franchise as they have practically no chance of contributing with their old team.


Note: We employed MLB rookie guidelines, so no one here has exceeded 130 MLB AB
or 50 MLB IP, or has accumulated 45 days on an MLB roster prior to September 1st
of any season.

* - denotes players not on a 40-man roster nor considered a prospect due to age

^ - denotes players selected in the 2006 Major League Rule 5 draft


Rotohelp's Top 150 NL Ultra Fantasy Prospects for 2007
1. Chris B. Young, OF, ARI
2. Alberto Callaspo, SS, ARI
3. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B/DH, SD
4. Chris Iannetta, C, COL
5. Miguel Montero, C, ARI
6. Alejandro De Aza, OF, FLO
7. Michael Bourn, OF, PHI
8. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL
9. Joey Votto, 1B, CIN
10. Tim Lincecum, SP, SF
11. James Loney, 1B, LAD
12. Felix Pie, OF, CHC
13. Mike Pelfrey, SP, NYM
14. Kory Casto, 3B, WAS
15. Andy La Roche, 3B, LAD
16. Jeff Baker, OF, COL
17. Fred Lewis, OF, SF
18. Josh Hamilton, OF, CIN^
19. Kevin Frandsen, 2B, SF
20. Ryan Braun, 3B, MIL
21. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, ARI
22. Hunter Pence, OF, HOU
23. Carlos Ruiz, C, PHI
24. Rajai Davis, OF, PIT
25. Jason Hirsh, SP, COL
26. Ian Stewart, 3B, COL
27. Paul McAnulty, OF, SD
28. Matt Chico, SP, WAS
29. Micah Owings, SP, ARI
30. Brian Barden, 3B, ARI
31. Chris Sampson, SP, HOU
32. Dustin Nippert, SP, ARI
33. Phil Humber, SP, NYM
34. Henry Owens, RP, FLO
35. Brent Lillibridge, SS, ATL
36. Tony Pena, RP, ARI
37. Homer Bailey, SP, CIN
38. Justin Upton, OF, ARI
39. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, ATL
40. Carlos Gomez, OF, NYM
41. Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT
42. Eric Patterson, 2B, CHC
43. Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL
44. Tony Abreu, 2B, LAD
45. Matt Albers, SP, HOU
46. Juan Mateo, SP, CHC
47. Jr., Tony Gwynn, OF, MIL
48. Delwyn Young, OF, LAD
49. Dexter Fowler, OF, COL
50. Blake Hawksworth, SP, STL
51. Colby Rasmus, OF, STL
52. Vinny Rottino, 3B, MIL
53. Norris Hopper, OF, CIN
54. Jay Bruce, OF, CIN
55. Joe Smith, SP, NYM
56. Jason Wood, 1B, FLO*
57. Josh Wilson, SS, WAS*
58. Gregor Blanco, OF, ATL
59. Brayan Pena, C, ATL
60. Jeff Salazar, OF, ARI
61. Nyjer Morgan, OF, PIT
62. Joe Koshansky, 1B, COL
63. Shane Youman, SP, PIT
64. Jesus Flores, C, WAS^
65. Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, COL
66. Larry Broadway, 1B, WAS
67. Matt Lindstrom, RP, FLO
68. Sean Thompson, SP, SD
69. Don Kelly, SS, PIT*
70. J.A. Happ, SP, PHI
71. Brooks Conrad, 2B, HOU
72. Neil Walker, C, PIT
73. Scott Moore, 1B, CHC
74. Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM
75. Skip Schumaker, OF, STL
76. T.J. Bohn, OF, ATL
77. Manuel Corpas, RP, COL
78. Sean Gallagher, SP, CHC
79. Mark Reynolds, SS, ARI
80. Jonathan Meloan, RP, LAD
81. Kevin Cameron, RP, SD^
82. Joe Gaetti, OF, COL
83. Craig Stansberry, 2B, SD
84. Cesar Carrillo, SP, SD
85. Brandon Jones, OF, ATL
86. Chris Carter, 1B, ARI
87. Seth Smith, OF, COL
88. Eric Reed, OF, FLO
89. Josh Anderson, OF, HOU
90. Matt Antonelli, 3B, SD
91. Eude Brito, SP, PHI
92. Juan Morillo, SP, COL
93. Troy Patton, SP, HOU
94. Drew Anderson, OF, MIL
95. Jose Garcia, SP, FLO
96. Alex Romero, OF, ARI
97. Gaby Hernandez, SP, FLO
98. Robert Andino, SS, FLO
99. Donald Veal, SP, CHC
100. Scott Elbert, SP, LAD
101. Nate Schierholtz, OF, SF
102. Zach Segovia, SP, PHI
103. Josh Sharpless, RP, PIT
104. Brian Rogers, RP, PIT
105. Levale Speigner, RP, WAS^
106. Michael Ekstrom, SP, SD
107. Elvis Andrus, SS, ATL
108. Garrett Mock, SP, WAS
109. Dave Krynzel, OF, ARI
110. Jon Coutlangus, RP, CIN
111. Beltran Perez, SP, WAS
112. Clay Kershaw, SP, LAD
113. Carlos Carrasco, SP, PHI
114. Greg Miller, RP, LAD
115. Cedric Hunter, OF, SD
116. Emmanuel Burriss, SS, SF
117. Jared Burton, RP, CIN^
118. Chris Volstad, SP, FLO
119. Franklin Morales, SP, COL
120. Joseph Bisenius, RP, PHI
121. Dennis Sarfate, RP, MIL
122. Joey Devine, RP, ATL
123. Paul Mildren, SP, FLO
124. Manny Parra, SP, MIL
125. Chris Lambert, SP, STL
126. Doug Slaten, RP, ARI
127. Alay Soler, SP, PIT
128. Carlos Martinez, RP, FLO
129. Brian Bixler, SS, PIT
130. Jason Jaramillo, C, PHI
131. Chase Headley, 3B, SD
132. Mike Rodriguez, OF, HOU
133. Bryan Anderson, C, STL
134. Geovany Soto, C, CHC
135. Martin Prado, 2B, ATL
136. Alvin Colina, C, COL
137. Zach Jackson, SP, MIL
138. Emilio Bonifacio, 2B, ARI
139. John Van Benschoten, SP, PIT
140. Bryan Bullington, SP, PIT
141. Anderson Hernandez, 2B, NYM
142. Travis Ishikawa, 1B, SF
143. Bobby Livingston, SP, CIN
144. Danny Sandoval, 2B, PHI
145. Billy Sadler, RP, SF
146. Paul Estrada, RP, HOU
147. Pat Misch, SP, SF
148. Chris Narveson, SP, STL
149. Justin Germano, SP, SD
150. Anthony Lerew, SP, ATL


Rotohelp's Top 42 2007 NL Fantasy Prospects for Long-term Leagues
1. Chris B. Young, OF, ARI
2. Justin Upton, OF, ARI
3. Dexter Fowler, OF, COL
4. Tim Lincecum, SP, SF
5. Felix Pie, OF, CHC
6. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, ARI
7. Joey Votto, 1B, CIN
8. Michael Bourn, OF, PHI
9. Brent Lillibridge, SS, ATL
10. Carlos Gomez, OF, NYM
11. Eric Patterson, 2B, CHC
12. Colby Rasmus, OF, STL
13. Jay Bruce, OF, CIN
14. Cedric Hunter, OF, SD
15. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B/DH, SD
16. Alberto Callaspo, SS, ARI
17. Chris Iannetta, C, COL
18. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL
19. Miguel Montero, C, ARI
20. Mike Pelfrey, SP, NYM
21. James Loney, 1B, LAD
22. Andy La Roche, 3B, LAD
23. Homer Bailey, SP, CIN
24. Hunter Pence, OF, HOU
25. Ryan Braun, 3B, MIL
26. Jeff Baker, OF, COL
27. Ian Stewart, 3B, COL
28. Andrew McCutchen, OF, PIT
29. Jarrod Saltalamacchia, C, ATL
30. Fernando Martinez, OF, NYM
31. Clay Kershaw, SP, LAD
32. Nyjer Morgan, OF, PIT
33. Gregor Blanco, OF, ATL
34. Donald Veal, SP, CHC
35. Scott Elbert, SP, LAD
36. Emilio Bonifacio, 2B, ARI
37. Emmanuel Burriss, SS, SF
38. Alejandro De Aza, OF, FLO
39. Kory Casto, 3B, WAS
40. Fred Lewis, OF, SF
41. Josh Hamilton, OF, CIN^
42. Angel Villalona, 3B, SF


Rotohelp's Top 25 NL Fantasy Prospects for 2007…
who should merit keeping at $10 in 2008 per traditional rules
1. Chris B. Young, OF, ARI
2. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B/DH, SD
3. Chris Iannetta, C, COL
4. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL
5. James Loney, 1B, LAD
6. Tim Lincecum, SP, SF
7. Joey Votto, 1B, CIN
8. Ryan Braun, 3B, MIL
9. Kory Casto, 3B, WAS
10. Mike Pelfrey, SP, NYM
11. Alberto Callaspo, SS, ARI
12. Carlos Gonzalez, OF, ARI
13. Andy La Roche, 3B, LAD
14. Felix Pie, OF, CHC
15. Homer Bailey, SP, CIN
16. Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL
17. Carlos Ruiz, C, PHI
18. Miguel Montero, C, ARI
19. Phil Humber, SP, NYM
20. Hunter Pence, OF, HOU
21. Jeff Baker, OF, COL
22. Michael Bourn, OF, PHI
23. Ian Stewart, 3B, COL
24. Eric Patterson, 2B, CHC
25. Josh Hamilton, OF, CIN^


Rotohelp's Top 24 NL Simulation Prospects for 2007-08
1. Chris B. Young, OF, ARI
2. Tim Lincecum, SP, SF
3. Chris Iannetta, C, COL
4. Mike Pelfrey, SP, NYM
5. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL
6. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B/DH, SD
7. James Loney, 1B, LAD
8. Alberto Callaspo, SS, ARI
9. Miguel Montero, C, ARI
10. Homer Bailey, SP, CIN
11. Kory Casto, 3B, WAS
12. Andy La Roche, 3B, LAD
13. Jeff Baker, OF, COL
14. Joey Votto, 1B, CIN
15. Matt Chico, SP, WAS
16. Ryan Braun, 3B, MIL
17. Micah Owings, SP, ARI
18. Felix Pie, OF, CHC
19. Carlos Ruiz, C, PHI
20. Yovani Gallardo, SP, MIL
21. Jason Hirsh, SP, COL
22. Hunter Pence, OF, HOU
23. Phil Humber, SP, NYM
24. Josh Hamilton, OF, CIN^


Top 2007 NL Rookie Sleeper: Alberto Callaspo, SS, ARI. One of the best players in the PCL last summer and a consistent .300 hitter in the minors, Callaspo possesses the plate discipline and speed necessary to post positive fantasy value regardless of his playing time. However, the Diamondbacks might not keep any other reserve infielders, making him the primary backup for Stephen Drew, Orlando Hudson, and Chad Tracy, as well as with the defensive replacement for the latter. Spring reports also indicate that Callaspo will see a decent number of at-bats in the outfield, making him a potential 400 AB sleeper capable of approaching $20 while seeing at least five games and more likely twenty at short, second, third, and the outfield. Between the flexibility Callaspo offers and his BA/SB/R upside, few players in the game equal his potential fantasy value regardless of rookie status.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Prospects poised to climb toward the top of the list for 2008 include Arizona's Justin Upton, Atlanta's Brent Lillibridge, Cincinnati's Joey Votto, Colorado's Ian Stewart, Philadelphia's Jason Jaramillo, Pittsburgh's Neil Walker, San Diego's Cesar Carrillo, and the Cardinals' Colby Rasmus.

If you're looking for one prospect prepared to convert monster tools into impressive stats, look to the Rockies' Dexter Fowler, who could see his stats, particularly his power numbers, explode in the California League given his across-the-board development in 2006.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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