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March
26th
2007
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2007 Top AL Fantasy Prospects

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Once again, we are presenting prospect lists specifically geared toward fantasy baseball with no consideration of "peak" or "long-term potential" other than what a player will contribute in standard 4x4, 5x5, and simulation leagues.


We ranked players in four lists for this article. The Top 150 Prospects List is meant for Ultra drafts, the top 42 prospects are intended exclusively for owners in extremely deep leagues who desire the best prospect trade bait, and our Top 25 Prospects of 2007-08 List is meant for traditional roto leagues with three-round minor league drafts. The final list of 24 prospects focuses on simulation leagues and is based upon a prospect's likelihood of contributing as an everyday player, weighted toward key defensive positions, as well as any pitchers prepared to emerge as viable starters or key relievers within the next two years.

I projected four values for each prospect listed below: his likely value in 2007, his 2007 upside, his likely 2008 value, and his likely long-term upside considering his tools, skills, and age. After averaging these values, weighting them heavily toward potential 2007 considerations, and downwardly adjusting the relative value of pitchers due to the greater volatility in projecting pitcher development, we arrived at a rough ranking of the prospects in each league.


A few players on the first list will be minor league veterans who only need a chance to succeed in the majors. I identified these players with an asterisk for those of you only interested in drafting more traditional prospects.

Rule 5 draftees have a ^ next to their names; their placement on the list assumes they remain with their new teams. Ignore those returned to their former franchises as they have practically no chance of contributing with their old teams.


Before beginning, we want to note our appreciation for all the resources available to everyone interested in minor leaguers, especially those from established analysts like John Sickels and Deric McKamey as well as everyone at both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus. We hope you enjoy these two days of prospects.


Note: We employed MLB rookie guidelines, so no one here has exceeded 130 MLB AB
or 50 MLB IP, or has accumulated 45 days on an MLB roster prior to September 1st
of any season.

* - denotes players not on a 40-man roster nor considered traditional prospects due to age

^ - denotes players selected in the 2006 Major League Rule 5 draft


Rotohelp's Top 150 AL Ultra Fantasy Prospects for 2007
1. Delmon Young, OF, TB
2. Alex Gordon, 3B, KC
3. Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
4. Akinori Iwamura, 3B, TB
5. Dustin Pedroia, SS, BOS
6. Adam Lind, DH, TOR
7. Elijah Dukes, OF, TB
8. Brandon Wood, SS, LAA
9. Kei Igawa, SP, NYY
10. Matt Garza, SP, MIN
11. Philip Hughes, SP, NYY
12. Reggie Willits, OF, LAA
13. Josh Fields, 3B, CHW
14. Ryan Sweeney, OF, CHW
15. Billy Butler, OF, KC
16. Adam Jones, OF, SEA
17. John Danks, SP, CHW
18. Jeff Karstens, SP, NYY
19. Daric Barton, 1B, OAK
20. Alexi Casilla, 2B, MIN
21. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS
22. Freddy Guzman, OF, TEX
23. Andrew Miller, SP, DET
24. Reid Brignac, SS, TB
25. Jeff Mathis, C, LAA
26. Glen Perkins, SP, MIN
27. Joel Guzman, 3B, TB
28. Brian Bannister, SP, KC
29. Kevin Slowey, SP, MIN
30. Jose Tabata, OF, NYY
31. Jeff Fiorentino, OF, BAL
32. Evan Longoria, 3B, TB
33. Justin Huber, OF, KC
34. Jerry Owens, OF, CHW
35. Cameron Maybin, OF, DET
36. Adam Miller, SP, CLE
37. Kevin Thompson, OF, NYY
38. Trevor Crowe, OF, CLE
39. Juan Salas, RP, TB
40. George Kottaras, C, BOS
41. Jason Botts, DH, TEX
42. Jeff Clement, C, SEA
43. Shawn Riggans, C, TB
44. Chris Lubanski, OF, KC
45. David Murphy, OF, BOS
46. Jason Windsor, SP, OAK
47. Joaquin Arias, SS, TEX
48. Jon Knott, OF, BAL
49. Humberto Sanchez, SP, NYY
50. Mitch Maier, OF, KC
51. Brian Barton, OF, CLE
52. Brian Stokes, SP, TB
53. Brandon Morrow, SP, SEA
54. Brett Gardner, OF, NYY
55. James Johnson, SP, BAL
56. Wladimir Balentien, OF, SEA
57. Brandon Watson, OF, DET
58. Luke Hochevar, SP, KC
59. Justin Christian, OF, NYY
60. Kurt Suzuki, C, OAK
61. Curtis Thigpen, C, TOR
62. Gio Gonzalez, SP, CHW
63. Ryan Roberts, 2B, TOR
64. John Hattig, 3B, TOR
65. Sean Rodriguez, SS, LAA
66. Dustin Moseley, SP, LAA
67. Sean Henn, SP, NYY
68. Jae Kuk Ryu, SP, TB
69. Eric Hurley, SP, TEX
70. Jeff Niemann, SP, TB
71. Kevin Melillo, 2B, OAK
72. Adam Russell, SP, CHW
73. Travis Buck, OF, OAK
74. Brent Clevlen, OF, DET
75. Darrell Rasner, SP, NYY
76. Tyler Clippard, SP, NYY
77. Travis Snider, OF, TOR
78. Ryan Feierabend, SP, SEA
79. Jason Hammel, SP, TB
80. Elliot Johnson, 2B, TB
81. Wes Bankston, 1B, TB
82. Edinson Volquez, SP, TEX
83. Ben Francisco, OF, CLE
84. Michael Garciaparra, 2B, SEA
85. Nate Gold, 1B, TEX
86. Wil Nieves, C, NYY
87. Mike Rouse, 2B, CLE
88. Bryan LaHair, 1B, SEA
89. Andy Sonnanstine, SP, TB
90. Terry Evans, OF, LAA
91. Jordan Tata, SP, DET
92. Jeremy Brown, C, OAK
93. Cesar Jimenez, SP, SEA
94. Nick Adenhart, SP, LAA
95. J.D. Durbin, SP, MIN
96. John Mayberry, OF, TEX
97. Mitch Talbot, SP, TB
98. Devern Hansack, SP, BOS
99. Hideki Okajima, RP, BOS
100. Dustin Majewski, OF, TOR
101. Jacob McGee, SP, TB
102. Wade Davis, SP, TB
103. Donnie Murphy, 2B, OAK
104. Yung Chi Chen, 2B, SEA
105. Sean White, SP, SEA^
106. Charles Haeger, SP, CHW
107. Jay Marshall, RP, OAK^
108. Shane Komine, SP, OAK
109. Ross Ohlendorf, SP, NYY
110. Javi Herrera, OF, OAK
111. Juan Miranda, 1B, NYY
112. Joakim Soria, RP, KC^
113. Josh Rabe, OF, MIN
114. Fernando Perez, OF, TB
115. Tom Mastny, RP, CLE
116. Ryan Raburn, 2B, DET
117. Nick Gorneault, OF, LAA
118. Brandon Moss, OF, BOS
119. Chuck Lofgren, SP, CLE
120. Ricky Romero, SP, TOR
121. Ryan Z. Braun, RP, KC
122. Luis Montanez, OF, BAL*
123. Justin Ruggiano, OF, TB
124. Radhames Liz, SP, BAL
125. Virgil Vasquez, SP, DET
126. Garrett Olson, SP, BAL
127. Clay Buchholz, SP, BOS
128. Jose Arredondo, SP, LAA
129. J.R. House, C, BAL*
130. Sean Tracey, SP, BAL
131. Val Majewski, OF, BAL
132. Tony Giarratano, SS, DET
133. Adam Donachie, C, KC
134. Andy Cannizaro, SS, NYY
135. Kevin Reese, OF, NYY
136. Bronson Sardinha, OF, NYY
137. Josh Rupe, RP, TEX
138. Nolan Reimold, OF, BAL
139. Brad Snyder, OF, CLE
140. J.D. Martin, SP, CLE
141. Brian Burres, SP, BAL
142. Jeremy Guthrie, RP, BAL
143. Rafael Perez, RP, CLE
144. Bobby Wilson, C, LAA
145. Asdrubal Cabrera, SS, CLE
146. Nick Masset, RP, CHW
147. Jair Jurrjens, SP, DET
148. Yorman Bazardo, SP, DET
149. Billy Rowell, SS, BAL
150. Sergio Pedroza, OF, TB


Rotohelp's Top 42 2007 AL Fantasy Prospects for Long-term Leagues
1. Delmon Young, OF, TB
2. Alex Gordon, 3B, KC
3. Jose Tabata, OF, NYY
4. Cameron Maybin, OF, DET
5. Adam Lind, DH, TOR
6. Brandon Wood, SS, LAA
7. Billy Butler, OF, KC
8. Evan Longoria, 3B, TB
9. Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
10. Akinori Iwamura, 3B, TB
11. Elijah Dukes, OF, TB
12. Matt Garza, SP, MIN
13. Philip Hughes, SP, NYY
14. Adam Jones, OF, SEA
15. Ryan Sweeney, OF, CHW
16. Daric Barton, 1B, OAK
17. Andrew Miller, SP, DET
18. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS
19. Reid Brignac, SS, TB
20. Kevin Slowey, SP, MIN
21. Alexi Casilla, 2B, MIN
22. Adam Miller, SP, CLE
23. Jerry Owens, OF, CHW
24. Jeff Clement, C, SEA
25. Chris Lubanski, OF, KC
26. Trevor Crowe, OF, CLE
27. Brian Barton, OF, CLE
28. Sean Rodriguez, SS, LAA
29. Travis Snider, OF, TOR
30. Dustin Pedroia, SS, BOS
31. Kei Igawa, SP, NYY
32. Josh Fields, 3B, CHW
33. Reggie Willits, OF, LAA
34. John Danks, SP, CHW
35. Jeff Karstens, SP, NYY
36. Glen Perkins, SP, MIN
37. Joel Guzman, 3B, TB
38. Freddy Guzman, OF, TEX
39. Luke Hochevar, SP, KC
40. Jeff Niemann, SP, TB
41. Travis Buck, OF, OAK
42. John Mayberry, OF, TEX


Rotohelp's Top 25 AL Fantasy Prospects for 2007…
who should merit keeping at $10 in 2008 per traditional rules
1. Delmon Young, OF, TB
2. Alex Gordon, 3B, KC
3. Akinori Iwamura, 3B, TB
4. Adam Lind, DH, TOR
5. Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
6. Dustin Pedroia, SS, BOS
7. Josh Fields, 3B, CHW
8. Ryan Sweeney, OF, CHW
9. Alexi Casilla, 2B, MIN
10. Brandon Wood, SS, LAA
11. Matt Garza, SP, MIN
12. Elijah Dukes, OF, TB
13. Daric Barton, 1B, OAK
14. Philip Hughes, SP, NYY
15. Billy Butler, OF, KC
16. Adam Jones, OF, SEA
17. Reid Brignac, SS, TB
18. Travis Buck, OF, OAK
19. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS
20. Kei Igawa, SP, NYY
21. Andrew Miller, SP, DET
22. Evan Longoria, 3B, TB
23. Trevor Crowe, OF, CLE
24. Adam Miller, SP, CLE
25. Kevin Slowey, SP, MIN


Rotohelp's Top 24 AL Simulation Prospects for 2007-08
1. Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP, BOS
2. Alex Gordon, 3B, KC
3. Akinori Iwamura, 3B, TB
4. Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS
5. Delmon Young, OF, TB
6. Kei Igawa, SP, NYY
7. Adam Lind, OF, TOR
8. Brandon Wood, SS/3B, LAA
9. Elijah Dukes, OF, TB
10. Matt Garza, SP, MIN
11. Philip Hughes, SP, NYY
12. Jeff Karstens, SP, NYY
13. Adam Miller, SP, CLE
14. Josh Fields, 3B/OF, CHW
15. Reid Brignac, SS, TB
16. Adam Jones, OF, SEA
17. Billy Butler, OF, KC
18. Daric Barton, 1B, OAK
19. Andrew Miller, SP, DET
20. John Danks, SP, CHW
21. Alexi Casillia, 2B, MIN
22. Dustin Moseley, SP, LAA
23. Kevin Slowey, SP, MIN
24. Jeff Niemann, SP, TB


Top 2007 AL Rookie Sleeper: Alexi Casilla, SS/2B, MIN. Given the Twins' limited infield depth, Casilla stands just one Luis Castillo strained hamstring from carrying his impressive speed skills into Minnesota's starting lineup.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Prospects prepared to climb toward the top of the list for 2008 include Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury, Cleveland's Brian Barton, Kansas City's Billy Butler, Los Angeles's Sean Rodriguez, Minnesota's Alexi Casilla, Oakland's Travis Buck, Seattle's Jeff Clement, and Tampa's Evan Longoria.

If you are looking for one prospect prepared to convert monster tools into impressive stats, look to the Rangers' John Mayberry, who could post plenty of extra-base hits when he takes his prodigious power potential into the Cal League this summer.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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