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August
12th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 NL LPR: Week 19
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through August 9th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2ABCXYZ - Roger Clemens(35454)
2ABCXY - Chris Carpenter(53034)
3AC - Brad Penny(43443)
ABXY - Brandon Webb(55433)

abcxy - Chad Bradford(4355443524)
axz - Alan Embree(3445555423)
ax - Adam Wainwright(3545413433)
cx - Pedro Feliciano(3534234034)
a - David Borkowski(3222455444)
a - Ramon Ramirez(0443142432)


2
3BCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(32445)
3AXcz - John Smoltz(53343)
3BCYZ - Jake Peavy(20334)
BCYZ - Andy Pettitte(52454)
B - Dontrelle Willis(32033)
Zach Duke(23042)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(5354525434)
3bcz - Ryan Madson(233222443)
BCZaby - Aaron Heilman(4342434342)
abcxyz - Chad Qualls(3545335503)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(1403423354)
y - Arthur Rhodes(2221434335)
Aaron Fultz(3335511323)


3
ABCYZ - Ben Sheets(50450)
C - Jeff Weaver(01204)
Livan Hernandez(32444)
Bronson Arroyo(33230)

Moving to Arizona may increase Hernandez's risk of disaster due to his new park, however the added offense and bullpen support will translate into more wins.

abcyz - Jason Isringhausen(5434454432)
abcyz - Tom Gordon(5542325455)
bcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(3434234355)
bcyz - Eric Gagne(44)
cxz - Salomon Torres(4343433325)
C - Glendon Rusch(2442343232)
z - Trever Miller(2433343433)


A
BCXY - Pedro Martinez(30342)
CXYZ - Greg Maddux(44533)
BY - Derek Lowe(04454)
B - Brett Myers(45443)
C - Jason Schmidt(34442)
X - Josh Johnson(35350)
X - Chris Capuano(03133)
Jason Jennings(42445)
David Bush(43034)
Aaron Sele(44302)
Alay Soler(44200)


B
CZ - Carlos Zambrano(33420)
C - Doug Davis(32321)
Y - Paul Maholm(35444)
Jon Lieber(22205)

Maholm's skills continue to improve ever since we first saw him released by our fellow owners in two different leagues. He looked like the Pirates' safest young pitcher heading into the year, and although he may not offer much immediate qualitative help, I like both his short-term and long-term prospects.

Ya - Rick Helling(2452445222)
b - Matt Belisle(2243552354)


C
by - Kerry Wood(4350)
Z - Oliver Perez(00330)
Matt Morris(30353)
Dave Williams(13130)


X
Scott Olsen(34434)
Anthony Reyes(44333)
Elizardo Ramirez(34300)

Several solid rookie pitchers appear overshadowed by baseball's cadre of shockingly dominant youngsters. The skill levels respectively demonstrated by Olsen and Reyes suggest as much promise as almost any of their NL ROY contenders, however their lower profiles should make them cheaper in trade talks.


Y
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(5334334343)


Z
Tim Hudson(33245)
Jason Marquis(23020)
Mark Mulder(02020)
John Van Benschoten


a
Kyle Lohse(10305)

I doubt you need me to warn you away from Lohse as a starter on the Reds, but if you're new to Rotohelp, please avoid Lohse as a starter on the Reds for the sake of your ERA and WHIP.

bcxyz - Bob Wickman(3355354545)
bcxyz - Heath Bell(5544315144)
bcxyz - Francisco Cordero(4332434345)
bcxy - Brian Fuentes(2444534343)
bcxz - Scott Williamson(4432443225)
bcyz - Brad Lidge(4444252425)
cxyz - Bob Howry(2332444345)
bxy - Dan Wheeler(5245544444)
bxy - Mike Wuertz(4144543333)
bxy - Derrick Turnbow(0532432543)
bxy - Roberto Hernandez(3333334443)
bxz - Duaner Sanchez(3445444443)
cyz - Eddie Guardado(3345545425)
bc - Jose Mesa(4423024534)
bx - Russ Springer(3444445345)
bx - Scott Eyre(5243554203)
by - Brad Thompson(4231133332)
cz - Luis Vizcaino(5542425553)
xy - Jonathan Broxton(5344344554)
xy - Chad Cordero(3433334534)
xz - Greg Aquino(2344233442)
xz - Gary Majewski(3454034311)
c - Doug Brocail(2043234455)
x - Josh Kinney(3444544245)
x - Takashi Saito(4541544452)
x - Cla Meredith(5344345534)
x - Jason Standridge(3444454243)
x - Fernando Nieve(3444224454)
x - Taylor Tankersley(4445233434)
x - Matt Capps(5524433424)
x - Giovanni Carrara(5345523532)
x - Damaso Marte(4233445351)
x - Jorge Julio(5332135435)
z - Elmer Dessens(4212354332)
Tim Hamulack(0344414414)
Tyler Johnson(3344024332)

Everyone in Houston's bullpen continues to impress me, but among the Astros' middle reliever, Wheeler maintains a slight edge on Qualls, Borowski, and Springer due to his more extensive history of posting successful skill sets. With Minute Maid playing increasingly neutral since the name change, don't be afraid to deploy any of this quartet or even Trevor Miller if looking for short-term roster filler.


b
y - Clay Hensley(34443)

Despite his lack of dominance this year, Hensley's recent performance indicates he still retains plenty of long-term upside. Consider him a perfectly viable fourth or fifth starter when looking to upgrade the back end of your rotation.

cxyz - Scott Linebrink(4222214532)
cxy - Jose Valverde(3343234432)
cyz - Danny Kolb(4354534324)
cyz - Braden Looper(2334343332)
cyz - Mike DeJean(23)
xy - Will Ohman(3444443354)
xy - Brian Shackelford(4301354554)
c - John Grabow(5544344353)
y - Macay McBride(5434344433)
y - David Weathers(1444455233)
y - Rheal Cormier(4230224224)
y - Brandon Medders(3353240333)
y - Jonah Bayliss(342)
Randy Flores(4443330252)
Franquelis Osoria(4353255020)
Roberto Novoa(2113242453)
Ryan Wagner(233)


c
yz - Jeremy Affeldt(4124242534)
z - Tyler Yates(4424551152)
z - Ray King(0203344435)
z - Armando Benitez(4441235033)
z - Steve Kline(5354522233)
z - Brian Shouse(5332033504)
Oscar Villarreal(0132344414)
Mike Adams(21)


x
Joe Borowski(4342542454)
Vinnie Chulk(3324454354)
Tony Pena(4444431333)
Fabio Castro(2443343334)
Casey Daigle(3543024334)
Brandon Lyon(3435234143)
Micah Bowie(3235433433)
Joe Beimel(3332433343)
Saul Rivera(2333433332)


y
Scott Munter(4254340341)
Mike Burns(2432244423)
Jay Bergmann(3412133345)
Jose Capellan(1432331232)


z
Juan Cruz(20443)

Danys Baez(2254234354)
Kevin Gryboski(4232)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: Aside from everyone in Houston's relief corps, other second tier middle relievers that offer a strong likelihood of improving your ERA and WHIP include Cla Meredith, Brett Tomko, Taylor Tankersley, Doug Brocail, Mike Wuertz, Jon Rauch, and Vinnie Chulk.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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