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August
11th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 AL LPR: Week 19
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through August 9th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2A - C.C. Sabathia(40245)
ABCXYZ - Johan Santana(34245)
AXax - Francisco Liriano(34440)
ABX - Jeremy Bonderman(43434)
Justin Verlander(45352)

While we hope Liriano will return this year, he already owns the only perfect single-season LPR rating since we began tabulating these ratings for the 2002 season. He never posted a single start below a 3 until he left Tuesday's start early, and as a reliever, a single 2 outing ranks as his only appearance below a 3. Only good health appears able to prevent him from dominating the league for the next decade.

23abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(2455554424)
abcxyz - Akinori Otsuka(4344234454)
abcxyz - Juan Rincon(3345413555)
abxyz - Scot Shields(4554243445)
abcx - J.J. Putz(3433544325)
BYx - Hector Carrasco(3334244052)
Cax - Dennys Reyes(3544535553)
ax - Jeremy Accardo(4422312543)


2
ABY - Felix Hernandez(25444)
BXY - Roy Halladay(33333)
B - Josh Beckett(45325)
X - Kevin Millwood(53233)
Y - Bartolo Colon(34340)

Hernandez soon may qualify for the top ranking at his current pace, so if you need starting pitching and see him available in one of the many leagues where he'll only qualify as a topper for next year, go try to get him now.

3bcyz - Julian Tavarez(2323354313)
abcxyz - B.J. Ryan(2143430445)
abxy - Huston Street(5455415544)
abxy - Justin Duchscherer(2453244443)
aby - Todd Jones(4235554553)


3
ACXZ - Curt Schilling(54332)
BCY - A.J. Burnett(45004)
BCZ - Randy Johnson(43025)
CZ - Freddy Garcia(24333)

abcyz - Kiko Calero(4253403445)
abxyz - Mike Timlin(4433323414)
Kevin Gregg(4443434334)
Travis Harper(2344521542)


A
BY - Rich Harden(44400)
CZ - Jake Westbrook(03435)
B - Erik Bedard(54344)
B - John Lackey(04403)
X - Mike Mussina(35553)
X - Luke Hudson(52335)
Jeremy Sowers(24432)
Zach Miner(00533)
Jered Weaver(42231)

Luke Hudson's success continues to surprise me, but among obviously underrated starters right now, he and Zach Miner both possess plenty of short-term upside. Both also could develop into middle-of-the-rotation options, so don't hesitate to grab either if they appear on your league's waiver wire.


B
CX - Cory Lidle(52335)
XY - Kelvim Escobar(13545)
Jose Contreras(34423)
Barry Zito(42331)
Jae Weong Seo(21024)

a - Scott Downs(4340554234)


C
Nate Robertson(33343)
Z - Carl Pavano
Odalis Perez(00002)

Za - Joe Kennedy(3043242450)


X
Dan Haren(44345)
Javier Vazquez(43324)


Y
Esteban Loaiza(30243)


X
Mark Buehrle(02141)
David Wells(0004)


a
bcxyz - Joe Nathan(5445444545)
bcxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(4423424355)
bcxy - Mike MacDougal(3454434005)
bxy - Bobby Jenks(2434532344)
xy - Manny Delcarmen(4434324442)
b - Ambiorix Burgos(4333552244)
x - Pat Neshek(4544333445)
x - Mark Lowe(4543433544)
x - Wes Littleton(4434442453)
x - Joe Nelson(4443533344)
x - Jon Papelbon(3453445403)
x - Brandon League(4042554433)
x - Scott Feldman(2444334343)
x - Fausto Carmona(3543553033)
y - Neal Cotts(1323513354)
Shawn Camp(3524544534)
Matt Smith(5224234443)
Fernando Cabrera(5344254212)
Matt Thornton(0345543322)
Rafael Perez(3355143402)

We propped Neshek earlier in the year as a prospect, and his success with the Twins completely justifies our early endorsement. He ranks among your best options for late-season qualitative help, especially if you need to find a relatively unknown middle reliever in a league with a maximum number of starts for the year.


b
cxy - Kyle Farnsworth(1345445342)
cyz - Rafael Betancourt(4443344332)
xyz - Ron Villone(3043324332)
cz - Octavio Dotel
yz - Rudy Seanez(4242453430)
y - George Sherrill(5422443454)
y - David Riske(3412435324)
y - Scott Schoeneweis(3300444250)
y - Tim Byrdak(3304144032)
y - Jay Witasick(233212)
Scott Sauerbeck(3431232450)


c
xz - Todd Williams(5323541344)
yz - Guillermo Mota(3452333324)
yz - Dustin Hermanson
x - J.C. Romero(4334330043)
z - Brendan Donnelly(5025434544)
z - LaTroy Hawkins(3552323441)
z - Keith Foulke(4133353313)
Dan Miceli(4244332315)
Mike Myers(0352323404)
Brian Meadows(4423222222)


x
y - Justin Speier(4454534441)
y - Fernando Rodney(3334234352)
C.J. Wilson(2343445334)
Rafael Soriano(3245245432)
Craig Hansen(5343533523)
Jimmy Gobble(4325343343)
Joel Zumaya(3432443342)
Joaquin Benoit(5345253033)
Sean Green(5143333333)


y
z - Jason Frasor(4325323333)
Chris Ray(4532323413)
Ron Flores(3552302352)
Marco Carvajal


z
Rodrigo Lopez(30343)

Javier Lopez(4524050333)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Johan Santana: No start.
Roy Oswalt: No start.
Pedro Martinez: No start.
Chris Carpenter: No start.
Randy Johnson: No start.
Jake Peavy: Sat:@HOU(J.Hirsh)
Roy Halladay: No start.
Mark Buehrle: Sat:DET(K.Rogers)
Curt Schilling: No start.
Felix Hernandez: Sun:@TEX(K.Millwood)
John Lackey: No start.
Dan Haren: Fri:TB(S.Kazmir)
Francisco Liriano: No start.

Liriano's DL trip places us in a bad place for starts this weekend, but since we're coasting in most of the SP categories, we'll just deploy our four starts, along with Halladay and Schilling since they fit under the cap and we expect to run them next week. Dempster flips for the suddenly slumping Papelbon with Baltimore and Ray in Boston.

Offensively, Willingham's trip to Arizona leads us to keep Victor benched, along with Encarnacion and Burrell. Thankfully we have the cap room to deploy Tex for Swisher.

Rotohelp.com(11th lg; 260th overall)
Week 19b: August 11-August 13

 
C	Joe Mauer		770 
C	Josh Willingham		340 
1B	Travis Hafner		1180
1B	Ryan Howard		880
2B	Chase Utley		1190
2B	Howie Kendrick		750
3B	David Wright		1210
3B	Garrett Atkins		610
SS	Felipe Lopez		1070
SS	Jose Reyes		1030 
OF	Jason Bay		1380 
OF	Chone Figgins		1350 
OF	Matt Holliday		1040
OF	Chad Tracy		1020 
OF	Corey Patterson		910
OF	Jermaine Dye		840
DH	Albert Pujols		2060 
DH	Mark Teixeira		1470

SP	Jake Peavy		1240
SP	Roy Halladay		1230 
SP	Mark Buehrle		1120
SP	Curt Schilling		1070 
SP	Felix Hernandez		960 
SP	Dan Haren		860
RP	Huston Street		1300 
RP	Ryan Dempster		1180
RP	J.J. Putz		890
RP	Chris Ray		820

Total Salary for Week 19b:	29770


Today's Fantasy Rx: After Pat Neshek, other second tier middle relievers that offer a strong likelihood of improving your ERA and WHIP include Mark Lowe, Joe Nelson, Shawn Camp, and even Fausto Carmona, especially now that he appears free of the pressure of closing for Cleveland.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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