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July
1st
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 NL LPR: Week 13

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 28th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
23AXcz - John Smoltz(54304)
2ABCXY - Chris Carpenter(33434)
3AC - Brad Penny(44412)
3AX - Bronson Arroyo(44344)
AX - Chris Capuano(34544)
Chan Ho Park(43431)

abcxy - Chad Bradford(4444434543)
abxy - Dan Wheeler(4542444133)
acx - Pedro Feliciano(3454433352)
ax - Jeremy Accardo(5444541331)
ax - Ramon Ramirez(3515344532)
a - David Borkowski(3345244322)
a - Adam Wainwright(4432314523)


2
3BCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(54334)
3BCYZ - Jake Peavy(30334)
3bcz - Ryan Madson(43330)
BCYZ - Andy Pettitte(35402)
BCYZ - Roger Clemens(34)
B - Dontrelle Willis(23423)
Zach Duke(33223)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(5344445354)
BCZabxy - Aaron Heilman(3432514343)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(3343543344)
abcxyz - Chad Qualls(3243431434)
axy - Arthur Rhodes(4423434403)
Aaron Fultz(5243333222)


3
BCYZ - Ben Sheets(3550)
C - Glendon Rusch(00400)
Livan Hernandez(21202)

abcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(5335423445)
abcxyz - Tom Gordon(4525542513)
abcyz - Jason Isringhausen(4054334422)
bcyz - Eric Gagne(44)
cz - Salomon Torres(2433332534)
z - Trever Miller(4333534305)


A
BCXY - Pedro Martinez(14430)
CXYZ - Greg Maddux(23344)
BXY - Brandon Webb(44434)
B - Brett Myers(20043)
X - Josh Johnson(54334)
z - Juan Cruz(20453)
David Bush(40544)
Ricky Nolasco(54433)
Enrique Gonzalez(44410)
Alay Soler(44420)
Aaron Cook(32443)
Tomo Ohka(04043)
Aaron Sele(15005)
Aaron Harang(32343)

An elevated ERA hides a pending breakout from David Bush, who belongs on your buy list in every league as he only needs slightly more consistency before emerging as a likely All-Star by next summer.


B
CX - Cory Lidle(33513)
CZ - Carlos Zambrano(52425)
XY - Derek Lowe(31332)
C - Doug Davis(53250)
Y - Paul Maholm(32204)
Y - Rick Helling(00)
Jon Lieber(34210)

b - Matt Belisle(2352224355)



by - Kerry Wood(4350)
X - Jason Schmidt(44323)
Z - Oliver Perez(00330)
Matt Morris(35335)
Dave Williams(13130)

Odalis Perez(4313314)


X
Elizardo Ramirez(43533)
John Patterson(03443)
Tom Glavine(31033)


Y
abcyz - Ryan Dempster(5442541424)


Z
Tim Hudson(33431)
Jason Marquis(23422)
Mark Mulder(02020)
John Van Benschoten


a
bcxyz - Brad Lidge(3344454525)
bcxyz - Scott Linebrink(4544233545)
bcxyz - Heath Bell(1335544315)
bcxy - Brian Fuentes(4232454443)
bcxz - Scott Williamson(3443533323)
cxyz - Bob Howry(3445344443)
bxy - Derrick Turnbow(5353445553)
bxy - Roberto Hernandez(4424433343)
bxy - Rheal Cormier(5324543243)
xyz - Chris Hammond(3544154314)
bc - Jose Mesa(5454223323)
bx - Russ Springer(4224344405)
bx - Randy Flores(4433553030)
by - Brad Thompson(4442311333)
cz - Brian Shouse(4434443325)
cz - Armando Benitez(1444323452)
cz - Luis Vizcaino(3433034231)
xy - Jonathan Broxton(4342450543)
xz - Alan Embree(2344433434)
xz - Gary Majewski(3352344443)
xz - Greg Aquino(2334253343)
x - Takashi Saito(4544544545)
x - Damaso Marte(4553535424)
x - Jorge Julio(5254535353)
x - Jonathan Sanchez(3345442325)
x - Brandon Lyon(4244414230)
y - Chad Cordero(4343421552)
y - Jose Capellan(4133234514)
Matt Capps(4045444523)
Taylor Tankersley(5345514125)
Tim Hamulack(0344414414)
Joe Beimel(4334434242)
Rick White(2433435524)
Tyler Johnson(5144515030)
Bill Bray(5435011342)
Scott Cassidy(5320343335)


b
y - Clay Hensley(03104)

cxy - Jose Valverde(3343234432)
cyz - Braden Looper(5353532354)
cyz - Danny Kolb(4553134243)
cyz - Chris Reitsma(3553343322)
cyz - Tim Worrell(0321432523)
cyz - Mike DeJean(23)
xy - Will Ohman(4332534243)
xy - Brian Shackelford(3334034430)
xz - Duaner Sanchez(4223334404)
c - John Grabow(4533532522)
x - Scott Eyre(3112453433)
y - David Weathers(2342404153)
y - Macay McBride(5344322333)
y - Brandon Medders(3312541323)
y - Mike Gallo(0335223053)
y - Mike Wuertz(4403)
y - Jonah Bayliss
Franquelis Osoria(4353255020)
Roberto Novoa(3332533422)
Ryan Wagner


c
xz - Ray King(4441340533)
z - Tyler Yates(5444332313)
z - Steve Kline(3344422234)
Esteban Yan(5254245242)
Randy Choate(54430345)
Oscar Villarreal(4213340033)
Mike Adams(21)
Doug Brocail


x
Casey Daigle(3543024334)
Scott Dohmann(3043532424)
Joe Borowski(5333253343)
Saul Rivera(4343433322)
Todd Coffey(2542323343)


y
Scott Munter(4254340341)
Mike Burns(2432244423)
Jay Bergmann(3233412133)


z
Danys Baez(4424344123)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a QA score of 0. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a QA score of 0. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: One of the primary tenets of forecasting the fantasy implications of player movement indicates that pitchers, particularly left-handed starting pitchers, enjoy a significant advantage when switching from the AL to the NL during the season. Mark Hendrickson's switch from the Devil Rays to the Dodgers does not seem like a huge deal, but he easily could win at least a half-dozen games while holding a 3.25 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over 80 innings. Even if he only wins a few games while slumping to a 4.00 ERA and 1.35 WHIP, stats that appear at the far upper end of his likely outputs, he still deserves a significant double-digit FAAB bid since only a couple more starters or everyday position players appear particularly likely to follow his interleague move this summer.


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