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June
30th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 AL LPR: Week 13

by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through June 28th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
2A - C.C. Sabathia(14304)
ABCXYZ - Johan Santana(35543)
AXax - Francisco Liriano(35554)
ABX - Jeremy Bonderman(54544)
B - Jose Contreras(32431)

23abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(5544255544)
abcxyz - Akinori Otsuka(4452455344)
abcxyz - Juan Rincon(4343445442)
abcyz - Francisco Cordero(4322543445)
abxyz - Scot Shields(5454354342)
BYax - Hector Carrasco(5332444344)
abcx - J.J. Putz(5454555543)
abxy - Bobby Jenks(4453553354)


2
ABY - Felix Hernandez(54344)
BXY - Roy Halladay(43443)
AB - Josh Beckett(04354)
AX - Kevin Millwood(54433)
BC - Matt Clement(40050)
Y - Bartolo Colon(40222)

3bcyz - Julian Tavarez(4342544242)
abcxyz - B.J. Ryan(4343453334)
abxy - Justin Duchscherer(2443443444)
aby - Todd Jones(3034254354)
bxy - Huston Street(3434434432)


3
ACXZ - Curt Schilling(33444)
BCY - A.J. Burnett(2055)
BCZ - Randy Johnson(40554)
CZ - Freddy Garcia(21332)
C - Jeff Weaver(13450)

abcyz - Kiko Calero(4545434423)
abxyz - Mike Timlin(5434534444)
Kevin Gregg(2212403443)
Travis Harper(0222234323)


A
BY - Rich Harden(44400)
CZ - Jake Westbrook(24545)
X - James Shields(45443)
X - Mike Mussina(44442)
X - Zach Miner(05443)
Boof Bonser(44104)
Daniel Cabrera(44320)


B
XY - Kelvim Escobar(33540)
Erik Bedard(34455)
John Lackey(30544)
Jae Weong Seo(04400)
Barry Zito(22523)

Scott Downs(0344243244)


C
Nate Robertson(32433)
Z - Carl Pavano

Za - Joe Kennedy(3043242450)
ax - Dennys Reyes(4234305455)


X
Dan Haren(53351)
Adam Loewen(33304)
Javier Vazquez(34331)


Y
Esteban Loaiza(05404)


Z
Mark Buehrle(12333)
David Wells(00)


a
bcxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(2445454453)
bcxyz - Joe Nathan(4533354455)
bcxyz - Bob Wickman(4432514433)
xy - Chris Ray(4422454154)
xy - Fernando Rodney(3330343335)
xz - Elmer Dessens(4434323343)
b - Ambiorix Burgos(4344444444)
b - Scott Sauerbeck(0344310443)
x - Fausto Carmona(5444544534)
x - Shawn Camp(3422534545)
x - Jon Papelbon(4533534343)
y - Neal Cotts(4352553451)
Scott Feldman(3451452444)
Matt Thornton(4123245345)
Matt Smith(4352242344)
Ron Mahay(0223455401)
Fernando Cabrera(4314132253)


b
cxy - Kyle Farnsworth(4314444333)
cyz - Rafael Betancourt(4353520333)
xyz - Ron Villone(3443234522)
cz - Octavio Dotel
xy - Scott Schoeneweis(4334345303)
yz - Rudy Seanez(4442342530)
y - David Riske(3345234233)
y - George Sherrill(5034233530)
y - Jay Witasick(23321)
Tyler Walker(3334332432)


c
xz - Todd Williams(3333333434)
yz - Eddie Guardado(4303034415)
yz - Guillermo Mota(4215411433)
yz - Jeremy Affeldt(34123433)
yz - Dustin Hermanson
z - LaTroy Hawkins(4222445224)
z - Brendan Donnelly(3234353345)
z - Keith Foulke(4133353313)
J.C. Romero(3434555244)
Brian Meadows(4322421345)
Mike Myers(0345333050)


x
y - Justin Speier(0253343433)
Jesse Crain(4443333445)
Rafael Soriano(5153433443)
C.J. Wilson(4334453423)
Joel Zumaya(5433340343)
Kurt Birkins(3502533453)
Vinnie Chulk(0443342353)
Sean Green(3335143333)
Joaquin Benoit(3223433334)


y
z - Jason Frasor(5243253233)
Manny Delcarmen(3441333244)
Ron Flores(3341323552)
Cliff Politte(3252220111)
Marco Carvajal


z
Rodrigo Lopez(23405)

Javier Lopez(3504445)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a QA score of 0. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who does not reach at least one of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a QA score of 0. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


We will continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

We are fulfilling our plans to add a thirteenth starter, picking up Francisco Liriano and dumping Mike Gonzalez, who has not saved a game in two weeks. Ryan Dempster also appears quite risky, but we still like him better than Gonzalez, and if the Cubs makes a change, we simply will follow suit and purchase a replacement.

SP(6)
Johan Santana: No start.
Roy Oswalt: Fri:@TEX(V.Padilla)
Pedro Martinez: No start.
Chris Carpenter: No start.
Randy Johnson: Sat:NYM(S.Trachsel)
Jake Peavy: No start.
Roy Halladay: No start.
Mark Buehrle: Sun:@CHC(C.Zambrano)
Curt Schilling: No start.
Felix Hernandez: No start.
John Lackey: Sun:LAD(C.Billingsley)
Dan Haren: No start.
Francisco Liriano: Sun:MIL(Z.Jackson)

Obviously, we will deploy our five starters and then employ Haren, our cheapest remaining option.

Helton, Encarnacion, and Holliday stay benched, and then since we do not love Figgins against Russ Martin and Toby Hall, Tex will replace Willingham.

Rotohelp.com(11th lg; 315th overall)
Week 13b: June 30-July 2

C	Victor Martinez		1020 
C	Joe Mauer		770
1B	Travis Hafner		1180
1B	Ryan Howard		880
2B	Chase Utley		1190
2B	Rickie Weeks		620
3B	David Wright		1210 
3B	Garrett Atkins		610
SS	Felipe Lopez		1070
SS	Jose Reyes		1030 
OF	Jason Bay		1380 
OF	Pat Burrell		1040 
OF	Chad Tracy		1020 
OF	Corey Patterson		910
OF	Jermaine Dye		840
OF	Nick Swisher		620 
DH	Albert Pujols		2060 
DH	Mark Teixeira		1470

SP	Roy Oswalt		1830 
SP	Randy Johnson		1360 
SP	Mark Buehrle		1120 
SP	John Lackey		940 
SP	Dan Haren		860
SP	Francisco Liriano	700
RP	Huston Street		1300
RP	Ryan Dempster		1180 
RP	Jon Papelbon		890
RP	Chris Ray		820

Total Salary for Week 13b:	29920


Today's Fantasy Rx: I do not know how Jose Contreras hit the top ranking given his inconsistent recent outings, but right now all pitchers bow down before Jeremy Bonderman and Francisco Liriano. Only Johan Santana even approaches the skill sets of those two youngsters. If you are looking to rebuild your pitching, investing in either developing future ace could set your staff for the next few seasons.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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