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June
3rd
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 NL LPR: Week 9
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to this key for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 31st. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
23AXcz - John Smoltz(45542)
2ABCXY - Chris Carpenter(35453)
3AC - Brad Penny(34450)
3AX - Bronson Arroyo(34442)
AX - Chris Capuano(35333)
A - Aaron Harang(52054)
Z - Tim Hudson(54335)

While I don't particularly trust Hudson any more, his recent performance suggests he soon might return to the ranks of reliable aces.

ax - Todd Coffey(2535445424)
ax - Adam Wainwright(5345332354)


2
3BCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(03354)
3BCYZ - Jake Peavy(25253)
3bcz - Ryan Madson(03314)
BCYZ - Andy Pettitte(25203)
B - Dontrelle Willis(00232)
Zach Duke(24442)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(2555144334)
BCZabxy - Aaron Heilman(3244534421)
abcxyz - Chad Qualls(4443453352)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(4533553134)
axy - Arthur Rhodes(3334334544)
ax - Aaron Fultz(1543355534)


3
BCYZ - Ben Sheets(3550)
Livan Hernandez(22242)

abcxyz - Tom Gordon(5254323445)
abcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(4425352413)
abcyz - Jason Isringhausen(5545243453)
bcyz - Eric Gagne
cz - Salomon Torres(5423433334)
C - Glendon Rusch(3432442)
z - Trever Miller(0023444325)


A
BCXY - Pedro Martinez(43444)
CXYZ - Greg Maddux(04243)
BCX - Cory Lidle(05433)
BXY - Brandon Webb(43545)
BXY - Derek Lowe(54344)
BX - Brett Myers(54244)
CX - Jason Schmidt(32344)
X - Josh Johnson(52455)
X - Aaron Sele(34451)
X - Byung-Hyun Kim(50433)
X - Wandy Rodriguez(34043)
X - Tom Glavine(52335)
z - Juan Cruz(42045)
Jamey Wright(44540)
Tony Armas(54224)
Aaron Cook(45233)
Eric Milton(40243)
Tomo Ohka(04043)


B
CZ - Carlos Zambrano(45334)
C - Doug Davis(33430)
Y - Paul Maholm(32543)
Jae Weong Seo(30440)
Jon Lieber(34210)

Y - Rick Helling(52)
b - Matt Belisle(3235222435)


C
by - Kerry Wood(435)
Z - Oliver Perez(00334)
Odalis Perez(23400)
Matt Morris(23225)
Dave Williams(13130)


X
Z - Mark Mulder(35430)
Elizardo Ramirez(30343)
Josh Fogg(24333)


Y
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(5325442245)


Z
Jason Marquis(03243)

John Van Benschoten


a
bcxyz - Brad Lidge(2553405355)
bcxy - Brian Fuentes(4444553433)
bcxz - Scott Williamson(5434435333)
cxyz - Bob Howry(3345422444)
bcy - Chad Bradford(3405244433)
bxy - Roberto Hernandez(3455544544)
bxy - Brad Thompson(4442444342)
bxy - Derrick Turnbow(1442554234)
bxy - Rheal Cormier(4323324553)
bxz - Duaner Sanchez(1433425344)
xyz - Chris Hammond(3334534544)
bc - Jose Mesa(0245344344)
bx - Scott Eyre(4544455514)
bx - Russ Springer(3542143344)
bx - Randy Flores(3544034243)
by - Will Ohman(4432534443)
by - Dan Wheeler(0432545143)
cx - Pedro Feliciano(4355443334)
cz - Luis Vizcaino(4541445453)
cz - Armando Benitez(4435431144)
cz - Steve Kline(4454202345)
xy - Chad Cordero(4434525544)
xy - Jonathan Broxton(3345554333)
xz - Gary Majewski(4434454240)
xz - Greg Aquino(3504443442)
xz - Danys Baez(3351435344)
x - Jorge Julio(4535245545)
x - Takashi Saito(3545424454)
x - Matt Wise(3545343454)
x - Ramon Ramirez(4541444343)
x - Kenny Ray(2543254354)
x - Brandon Lyon(5434343325)
x - Jeremy Accardo(5334430543)
x - Matt Capps(3342345244)
x - Damaso Marte(3344335235)
x - Josh Hancock(4234343433)
x - Randy Messenger(2332034555)
y - Jose Capellan(5534235324)
z - Alan Embree(4345324405)
Scott Cassidy(5455410545)
Logan Kensing(2434425524)
David Borkowski(1234543345)
Brian Sweeney(4434413234)
Tim Hamulack(2203444144)
Joe Beimel(4333225424)


b
y - Clay Hensley(24343)

cxyz - Scott Linebrink(3434325543)
cxyz - Braden Looper(3233504234)
cxy - Jose Valverde(2334432233)
cyz - Chris Reitsma(5454135533)
cyz - Tim Worrell(5205433032)
cyz - Danny Kolb(3332432234)
cyz - Heath Bell(4431)
cyz - Mike DeJean(23)
xy - Brian Shackelford(3334034430)
c - John Grabow(5345330244)
x - Mike Remlinger(3354335432)
x - Roberto Novoa(3324430143)
y - Macay McBride(4333243355)
y - Brandon Medders(3335323345)
y - David Weathers(4422333353)
y - Mike Gallo(0335223053)
y - Mike Wuertz(4403)
y - Jonah Bayliss
Franquelis Osoria(4353255020)
Blaine Boyer(23)
Ryan Wagner


c
xz - Ray King(3325404344)
x - Jason Grimsley(3334534303)
z - Brian Shouse(5040403212)
z - Tyler Yates(2)
z - Chin-hui Tsao
z - Luis Ayala
Esteban Yan(3334514333)
Oscar Villarreal(3535323342)
Mike Adams(21)
Doug Brocail


x
Scott Dohmann(5434334330)
Casey Daigle(3543024334)
Kevin Correia(3245333433)
David Cortes(4432242233)


y
Scott Munter(4254340341)
Mike Burns(324322444)
Jay Bergmann(0443233412)
Terry Mulholland(3333)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: The idea that three Reds' pitchers could reach the top ranking never occurred to me until recently, but Arroyo, Harang, and Coffey all own solid skill sets and plenty of upside. Although I don't expect them to remain here all year, they certainly each rank as virtually certain double-digit performers, especially with Coffey likely established as Cincinnati's closer for the foreseeable future.


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