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May
20th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 NL LPR: Week 7
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method to identify highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we haven't changed this system since last season, feel free to refer here for a complete description of the codes. We've included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter, along with the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 17th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so don't roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
23AXcz - John Smoltz(35455)
2ABCXY - Chris Carpenter(33545)
3AX - Bronson Arroyo(53344)
ACXYZ - Greg Maddux(43304)
AX - Tom Glavine(33523)
Z - Tim Hudson(33254)
Chan Ho Park(23334)

Chris Capuano, Brad Penny, and even Tony Armas almost qualified, each missing by merely a couple of groundballs. Seeing Park here is quite refreshing considering we expected him to rebound nicely in his first full year in a pitchers' park this decade.


2
3BCXYZ - Roy Oswalt(43303)
3BCYZ - Jake Peavy(23252)
3bcz - Ryan Madson(30331)
BCYZ - Andy Pettitte(43325)
AB - Dontrelle Willis(44002)
Zach Duke(32324)

3abcxyz - Billy Wagner(4334553255)
BCZabxy - Aaron Heilman(5534553244)
abcxyz - Chad Qualls(5334444434)
abcxyz - Trevor Hoffman(3434453355)
xy - Arthur Rhodes(3444333433)
a - Aaron Fultz(5233555515)

Hoffman continues to rock, so ignore the relative lack of saves since he will finish with close to $25 of value.


3
BCYZ - Ben Sheets(3550)
AC - Brad Penny(22344)
C - Glendon Rusch(03500)
Livan Hernandez(22322)

abcxyz - Tom Gordon(4353552543)
abcxyz - Mike Gonzalez(5344344253)
abcyz - Jason Isringhausen(4334325545)
bcyz - Eric Gagne
acz - Salomon Torres(0504423525)
z - Trever Miller(4232300234)


A
BCXY - Pedro Martinez(44543)
BCX - Cory Lidle(54405)
BXY - Brandon Webb(44443)
BXY - Derek Lowe(43543)
BX - Brett Myers(43554)
XZ - Mark Mulder(32354)
C - Jason Schmidt(35432)
X - Chris Capuano(44335)
Jeff Francis(44433)
Tony Armas(53054)
Sean Marshall(54304)
Aaron Harang(44520)
Aaron Cook(25245)
Jamey Wright(22445)
Wandy Rodriguez(43340)
Tomo Ohka(04043)


B
CZ - Carlos Zambrano(40345)
C - Doug Davis(43233)
X - Jon Lieber(53434)
Y - Paul Maholm(04325)
Jae Weong Seo(04304)

Y - Rick Helling(52)
b - Matt Belisle(4423235222)


C
Z - Oliver Perez(22003)
Odalis Perez(23400)
Matt Morris(04232)
Dave Williams(01313)

by - Kerry Wood


X
John Thomson(34233)


Y
abcxyz - Ryan Dempster(4535325325)


Z
Jason Marquis(22103)
John Van Benschoten


a
bcxyz - Brad Lidge(3444422553)
bcxy - Brian Fuentes(3423344445)
bcxy - Jose Valverde(4353423344)
bcxz - Scott Williamson(2455434435)
bcy - Chad Bradford(4424234052)
bxy - Brad Thompson(5544424443)
bxy - Derrick Turnbow(4354441442)
bxy - Rheal Cormier(4344454323)
bxy - Roberto Hernandez(2234343455)
bxz - Duaner Sanchez(3545341433)
bc - Jose Mesa(3442410245)
bx - Randy Flores(3345535440)
bx - Russ Springer(3453433542)
by - Will Ohman(3214553544)
by - Dan Wheeler(5541450432)
by - David Weathers(4351442233)
cx - Pedro Feliciano(3354434355)
cz - Steve Kline(5344454202)
cz - Luis Vizcaino(2525424541)
xz - Alan Embree(3454345324)
xz - Gary Majewski(4243334444)
xz - Greg Aquino(3504443442)
x - Brandon Lyon(4543435434)
x - Damaso Marte(4554533443)
x - Jorge Julio(5543445352)
x - Jeremy Accardo(3254453344)
x - Adam Wainwright(4145353453)
x - Ramon Ramirez(5335145414)
x - Takashi Saito(4431354542)
x - Matt Wise(4242354534)
y - Jose Capellan(3542425534)
Scott Cassidy(4525545541)
Brian Sweeney(4424443441)
Matt Capps(4455353342)
Josh Hancock(2344423434)
Tim Hamulack(3445322034)

The trends of Lyon, Marte, Julio, and even Accardo all appeal to me, suggesting the potential see late-inning action for everyone save Marte. Also, Hancock's lack of overt dominance leaves him comparatively more risky than Thompson and Wainwright, not to mention Looper, if Izzy's injuries flare again.


b
cxyz - Scott Linebrink(4353343432)
cxyz - Braden Looper(3245353233)
cyz - Chris Reitsma(3125125454)
cyz - Danny Kolb(3244433324)
cyz - Tim Worrell(5205433032)
cyz - Heath Bell(44)
cyz - Mike DeJean(23)
xy - Brian Shackelford(3434333403)
c - John Grabow(4424335345)
x - Scott Eyre(4345532445)
x - Mike Remlinger(4433333543)
x - Roberto Novoa(3334344332)
y - Mike Gallo(4340303352)
y - Brandon Medders(3213433353)
y - Clay Hensley(4023353)
y - Mike Wuertz(440)
y - Macay McBride(202433)
y - Jonah Bayliss
Franquelis Osoria(4353255020)
Blaine Boyer(23)
Ryan Wagner


c
xyz - Bob Howry(3443414334)
x - Jason Grimsley(1333334534)
z - Armando Benitez(2443543)
z - Brian Shouse(024504040)
z - Ray King(3333332540)
z - Brian Bruney
z - Chin-hui Tsao
z - Luis Ayala
Oscar Villarreal(2424435353)
Jim Brower(3444422232)
Mike Adams(21)
Doug Brocail


x
y - Chad Cordero(4535334443)
z - Joey Eischen(4553333503)
Scott Dohmann(4354343343)
David Cortes(3345444322)
Todd Coffey(3334325354)
Kenny Ray(3323432543)
Kevin Correia(0343245333)

Coffey's building to a more significant role, so if you see him available, grab him before someone else takes the flyer.


y
z - Chris Hammond(1354333453)
Scott Munter(3425434034)
Jonathan Broxton(5353345)
Jay Bergmann(0443233412)
Mike Burns(32432244)
Terry Mulholland(3333)


z
Danys Baez(4351333514)
Juan Cruz(5334132)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


Today's Fantasy Rx: While I'm not convinced that Bronson Arroyo will remain one of baseball's most valuable pitcher while pitching for Cincy in the GAB, his current skills offer no indication of any pending downfall. Continue treating him as a $15-20 pitcher for the indefinite future.


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