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May
19th
2006
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2006 AL LPR: Week 7
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Welcome to our weekly LPR rankings, our primary method of identifying highly skilled and/or consistently effective pitchers. While we have not changed this system since last season, feel free to refer to thiskey for a complete description of the codes. We have included the five most recent 2006 QA scores for each starter as well as the 10 most recent QA scores for each reliever, tabulating all data through May 17th. Pitchers with no QA scores have not pitched this year, so do not roster any of them unless you see someone ready to return to the majors.


1
AB - Jeremy Bonderman(35524)
AX - Javier Vazquez(44452)

Both Angels, Kelvim Escobar and Hector Carrasco, slip down this week, but Vazquez returns for the first time in seemingly years on the strength of finally reaching a 1.00 G-F. Expect continued success from the former horse as he enjoys the less pressurized environment of Chicago, where he comprises merely one of five putative aces.


2
BXY - Roy Halladay(33344)
AB - Josh Beckett(20254)
BC - Matt Clement(33422)
BY - Felix Hernandez(52250)
Y - Bartolo Colon(402)
Kevin Millwood(33404)
C.C. Sabathia(0235)

3abcxyz - Mariano Rivera(4453343324)
3abcyz - Julian Tavarez(4434213245)
abcxyz - B.J. Ryan(4342544443)
abxy - Justin Duchscherer(4224434434)
abxy - Huston Street(2525534453)
aby - Todd Jones(4354255342)


3
ACZ - Curt Schilling(34411)
BCY - A.J. Burnett(20)
BCZ - Randy Johnson(31303)
CZ - Freddy Garcia(23453)
C - Jeff Weaver(40310)

We still aren't seeing any real improvement from Weaver, but unless he's hiding an injury, he will rebound toward his normal stats in the very near future, so go get him now before his price rises.

abyz - Mike Timlin(4443243453)
bcyz - Kiko Calero(2132145434)
Travis Harper(2432432021)
Kevin Gregg(24322)


A
BCYZ - Johan Santana(54445)
BXY - Rich Harden(34440)
BX - Jose Contreras(45243)
CZ - Jake Westbrook(25434)
C - Nate Robertson(45512)
X - Mike Mussina(43525)
X - Jason Johnson(33043)
Daniel Cabrera(45540)
Scott Kazmir(25255)
Joel Pineiro(30450)

Pineiro's growing nearly as aggravating as Felix and Kazmir. The Mariners' veteran clearly could develop into a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, but his inconsistency could keep his value rather limited indefinitely.


B
XY - Kelvim Escobar(34533)
Y - Hector Carrasco(043)
Barry Zito(23442)
John Lackey(33234)
Erik Bedard(12023)

Scott Downs(325355425)


C
Za - Joe Kennedy(3043242450)
Z - Carl Pavano
Dennys Reyes(454534)
Bobby Madritsch


X
Mark Hendrickson(35234)
Casey Janssen(03443)
Dan Haren(33343)
Jarrod Washburn(43333)
Kris Benson(33305)

With Janssen likely in the rotation for the rest of the year barring an unexpected breakout of health among the Jays' older starters, his performance to date suggests very little downside. I also don't expect any overt dominance, but he should coast to no less than $5 value.


Y
Esteban Loaiza(0030)


Mark Buehrle(53233)
Z
David Wells(0)


a
bcxyz - Francisco Rodriguez(3533555454)
bcxyz - Juan Rincon(4353555525)
bcxyz - Joe Nathan(4435343453)
bcxyz - Bob Wickman(4433342535)
bcxyz - Akinori Otsuka(5345433432)
bcyz - Francisco Cordero(4454445354)
bxyz - Scot Shields(5544434353)
bxyz - Ron Villone(1355333523)
bcx - J.J. Putz(5343545444)
bxy - Bobby Jenks(4354425044)
cyz - Eddie Guardado(3423544535)
by - George Sherrill(3401445043)
cx - Mike Myers(3444502303)
xy - Fernando Rodney(4442455134)
xz - Elmer Dessens(4455424453)
b - Ambiorix Burgos(4535521522)
x - Fernando Cabrera(4343443454)
x - Joaquin Benoit(5454344352)
x - Jon Papelbon(5454243425)
x - Francisco Liriano(4332435445)
x - Shawn Camp(3435434315)
x - Pete Walker(4423423543)
Andy Sisco(2550544504)
Brandon McCarthy(4433121453)

Other than his terrible initial outing, Fernando Cabrera appears perfectly on track to spend the year as a quality set-up man and then inherit Cleveland's closer job next year. Go get him now while his April disaster continues to unfairly elevate his qualitative stats.


b
cxy - Kyle Farnsworth(4434344434)
cyz - Rafael Betancourt(433224503)
cyz - Matt J. Miller(243331)
cz - Octavio Dotel
yz - Rudy Seanez(2404433334)
y - Scott Schoeneweis(4333124520)
y - Jay Witasick(233)
y - David Riske(1)
Scott Sauerbeck(3340430544)
Tyler Walker(5302544533)
Bobby Seay(32553520)


c
yz - Jeremy Affeldt(24302)

xz - LaTroy Hawkins(3541414334)
yz - Guillermo Mota(2202525254)
yz - Dustin Hermanson
z - Danny Graves(4324443442)
z - Keith Foulke(4445132334)
z - Brendan Donnelly(3524424352)
z - Todd Williams(3434253422)
z - Antonio Alfonseca(2344242242)
z - John Halama(1243213431)
Esteban Yan(1233345143)
Dan Miceli(0424433231)
Brian Meadows(133334532)
J.C. Romero(3343232333)


x
y - Chris Ray(3334533423)
Matt Thornton(1425343345)
Vinnie Chulk(3334404433)
Joel Zumaya(2453543332)
Rafael Soriano(4434323431)
Jason Davis(2353343342)
Jamie Walker(3543353300)
C.J. Wilson(0323343344)


y
z - Jason Frasor(3542433224)
Neal Cotts(3524455242)
Cliff Politte(4432334325)
Justin Speier(4334342242)
Manny Delcarmen(2253)
Ron Flores(133)
Scott Erickson(2)
Marco Carvajal


z
Rodrigo Lopez(42320)


1 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2006.
2 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2005.
3 - K/9 of 6.0+, BB/9 of 3.0-, H/9 of 9.0-, HR/9 of 1.0-,
     and G-F of 1.0+ in 25+ IP in 2004.


QA score for starts: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any starter who pitches at least 5 innings and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP-2, BB<=IP/3, H<=IP, HR<=1, and G-F>=1.00. Any starter who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to pitch 5 innings earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

QA score for relief outings: up to 5 total points, one for each statistical goal, to any reliever who retires at least one batter and fulfills any of the following skill qualifications: K>=IP, BB=0, H<=IP, HR=0, and G-F>=1.00. Any reliever who doesn't reach any of the required statistical goals or fails to retire a batter earns a 0 QA score. Scores of 5 and 4 qualify as DOMinant outings, a 3 is DULl, and anything below 3 ranks as a skill DISaster.

Note: Starters must pitch in five games before earning any of the following DOM or DIS ratings; relievers must appear in no less than 10 games before earning DOM/DIS consideration. All pitchers are evaluated as relievers aside from those who reached both 5 starts in a given season and qualified for DOM or DIS ratings.

A - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 starts
B - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 starts
C - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 starts

X - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 starts
Y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 starts
Z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 starts

a - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2006 relief outings
b - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2005 relief outings
c - QA score of 4 or 5 in at least 50% of 2004 relief outings

x - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2006 relief outings
y - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2005 relief outings
z - QA score below 3 in no more than 20% of 2004 relief outings


We'll continue tomorrow with this week's NL LPR article.


Internet Challenge

SP(6)
Johan Santana: No start.
Roy Oswalt: Fri:TEX(Ro.Tejeda)
Pedro Martinez: Sat:NYY(M.Mussina)
Chris Carpenter: Fri:@KC(M.Redman)
Randy Johnson: Fri:@NYM(J.Gonzalez)
Jake Peavy: No start.
Roy Halladay: No start.
Mark Buehrle: Fri:CHC(G.Maddux).
Curt Schilling: No start.
Felix Hernandez: Sun:SD(C.Park)
John Lackey: No start.
Dan Haren: Fri:SF(N.Lowry)

With Randy increasingly unstable and heading into Shea, we'll opt for the other six starters. For cap reasons, Papelbon reenters the lineup for Dempster.

Offensively, Reyes(vs. Posada) replaces Felipe Lopez(vs. IRod), while Tex, Encarnacion, Bay, and Gathright stay benched.

Rotohelp.com(8th lg; 247th overall)
Week 7b: May 19-May 21

C	Victor Martinez		1020
C	Josh Willingham		340 
1B	Albert Pujols		2060
1B	Ryan Howard		880
2B	Chase Utley		1190
2B	Rickie Weeks		620
3B	David Wright		1210 
3B	Garrett Atkins		610 
SS	Jose Reyes		1030 
SS	Clint Barmes		780
OF	Chone Figgins		1350 
OF	Matt Holliday		1040
OF	Pat Burrell		1040 
OF	Chad Tracy		1040
OF	Nick Swisher		620 
OF	Cory Sullivan		460
DH	Todd Helton		1380
DH	Travis Hafner		1180 

SP	Roy Oswalt		1830
SP	Pedro Martinez		1700
SP	Chris Carpenter		1550
SP	Mark Buehrle		1120 
SP	Felix Hernandez		960
SP	Dan Haren		860
RP	Huston Street		1300
RP	Mike Gonzalez		1120 
RP	Jon Papelbon		890
RP	Chris Ray		820

Total Salary for Week 7b:	29980


Today's Fantasy Rx: With many fantasy clubs already possessing a clear idea of their strengths and weaknesses, feel free to exploit any surprising interleague performances when talking trade over the next couple of weeks. If you own a generally unimpressive pitcher that lucks into dominating an NL club, talk up the start in an attempt to move the guy. Similarly, if the Jays' hitters enjoy their weekend in Coors, try to leverage their short-term offensive success into a higher return for their hitters.


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Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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