Rotohelp  
April
1st
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
Rotohelp
Our Philosophy

2006 NL Pitcher Draft Values
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Download the spreadsheet with our complete projected stats for 4x4, 5x5, simulation, and Scoresheet leagues; this file also includes final 2005 NL LPR values for qualifying pitchers based on this key.


The Draft Values presented below only apply to NL-only 12 team leagues using traditional 4x4 or 5x5 scoring and $260 of cap space to draft 14 hitters and 9 pitchers employing a 70/30 hitting/pitching split. After reviewing league data and recent trends, we selected a 4.59 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP as the baseline values necessary to calculate ERA and WHIP Category Dollars respectively.

Simulation league projections involve computing Runs Above Replacement for each pitcher based upon expected role, and then our Scoresheet projections compute RAR after considering whether Scoresheet lists each pitcher as a starter or reliever.

While we undoubtedly missed a few dozen pitchers who unexpectedly will reach the majors this season, we included the only 307 National League pitchers with any significant chance of deserving a nomination in your 2006 spring draft.


Top 3 NL 4x4 Starters: Pedro Martinez, $27; Ben Sheets, $24; Carlos Zambrano, $23.

Top 3 NL 5x5 Starters: Pedro Martinez, $26; Ben Sheets, $24; Carlos Zambrano, $24.

Top 3 NL Sim Starters: Carlos Zambrano, 56.1 RAR; Roy Oswalt, 51.1; Pedro Martinez, 50.5.

Top 3 NL 4x4 Relievers: Billy Wagner, $28; Chad Cordero, $25; Trevor Hoffman, $25.

Top 3 NL 5x5 Relievers: Billy Wagner, $26; Chad Cordero, $22; Trevor Hoffman, $22.

Top 3 NL Sim Relievers: Billy Wagner, 22.0 RAR; Scott Linebrink, 19.7; Chad Cordero, 18.6.


Best NL Wins/Ks Sleepers likely to beat this projection: Noah Lowry, $12; Chuck James, $8; Matt Cain, $7.

Best All-Around Starting Pitcher Sleepers: Chris Young, $15; Paul Maholm, $7; Sidney Ponson, $5.


Best NL Saves Sleepers: Danys Baez, $11; Todd Coffey, $5; Braden Looper, $2.

NL Relievers most likely to vulture 10+ Wins: Scott Linebrink, $9; Lance Carter, $7; Jon Rauch, $6.

First tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Aaron Heilman, $4; Chad Qualls, $1; Arthur Rhodes, $4; Aaron Fultz, $1; Salomon Torres, $2; Rheal Cormier, $-2.

Second tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Braden Looper, $2; Tim Worrell, $5; Danny Kolb, $0; Chad Bradford, $1; Scott Linebrink, $9; Heath Bell, $1.

Top 2006 NL Pitcher Sleeper: Chris Young, $15. I remain overly intrigued by tall pitchers with good base skill sets, and at 6'10" with a 7.4 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9, Young certainly meets those qualifications. Moving from Texas to San Diego provides a dramatically superior environment for Young. Plus, given his generally light workloads in previous seasons, the 26-year-old does not look like an injury risk. I consider Young someone to target in every NL and mixed league, and only my general questions concerning his likely win total keep me from recommending him in national contests.


Rotohelp's 2006 NL Pitcher Projected Draft Values

Pitchers		4x4	5x5	RAR	ARAR
Accardo, Jeremy		2	2	8.1	8.1
Acevedo, Jose		-3	-3	-1.7	-1.1
Adams, Mike		0	0	4.2	4.2
Adams, Terry		-2	-2	0.6	0.6
Almanzar, Carlos	-1	-2	0.3	0.3
Anderson, Jason		1	0	3.9	3.9
Aquino, Greg		1	1	2.2	2.2
Armas, Jr., Tony	0	1	16.1	16.1
Arroyo, Bronson		6	8	23.3	23.3
Astacio, Ezequiel	0	0	2.2	2.2
Astacio, Pedro		7	7	16.7	16.7
Backe, Brandon		0	2	14.4	14.4
Baez, Danys		11	10	17.5	17.5
Bajenaru, Jeff		-1	-1	1.7	1.7
Balfour, Grant		-1	-2	0.7	0.7
Bannister, Brian	-4	-3	2.2	2.2
Batista, Miguel		1	2	18.3	18.3
Baxter, Allen		2	1	5.1	5.3
Beimel, Joe		-1	-2	0.7	0.7
Belisle, Matt		0	0	0.3	1.7
Bell, Heath		1	1	5.9	5.9
Benes, Alan		-1	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Benitez, Armando	9	7	7.0	7.0
Bergmann, Jay		1	1	5.6	5.6
Billingsley, Chad	2	2	10.0	10.0
Bong, Jung		-1	-2	-0.4	-0.3
Booker, Chris		-3	-3	0.6	0.6
Borowski, Joe		16	14	11.7	11.7
Bowyer, Travis		-1	-1	5.3	5.3
Boyer, Blaine		-6	-6	-4.4	-4.4
Bradford, Chad		1	1	8.4	8.4
Bray, Bill		-2	-2	-0.3	0.6
Brazelton, Dewon	-1	0	12.8	12.8
Brazoban, Yhency	2	2	8.4	8.4
Brito, Eude		-3	-3	-1.4	-0.6
Brocail, Doug		-1	-1	4.5	4.5
Broxton, Jonathan	0	0	2.8	3.3
Bruney, Brian		-2	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Buchholz, Taylor	-2	-1	1.1	1.1
Bump, Nate		-3	-4	-1.7	-1.7
Burnett, Sean		-2	-2	-0.3	-0.3
Burns, Mike		0	-1	1.7	1.7
Bush, David		9	10	20.0	20.0
Cain, Matt		7	9	28.9	28.9
Cali, Carmen		-2	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Capellan, Jose		2	2	7.0	8.3
Capps, Matt		-2	-1	1.1	1.1
Capuano, Chris		6	8	24.4	24.4
Carpenter, Chris	17	18	37.7	37.7
Carrara, Giovanni	-3	-3	0.9	0.9
Carrillo, Cesar		-1	-2	0.8	0.8
Carter, Lance		7	6	10.9	10.9
Cassidy, Scott		2	2	10.6	10.6
Cerda, Jaime		-4	-4	-2.8	-2.8
Choate, Randy		-2	-3	1.0	1.0
Claussen, Brandon	1	3	13.3	13.3
Clemens, Roger		15	15	34.4	34.4
Coffey, Todd		5	5	3.9	3.9
Cook, Aaron		-14	-12	-6.7	-6.7
Cordero, Chad		25	22	18.6	18.6
Cormier, Lance		-4	-3	-0.2	-0.2
Cormier, Rheal		-2	-2	0.0	0.0
Correia, Kevin		-3	-3	-0.5	1.1
Cortes, David		0	0	2.2	2.2
Cruz, Juan		0	1	5.6	7.8
Daigle, Casey		-2	-2	-1.0	-1.0
Davies, Kyle		-2	0	12.2	12.2
Davis, Doug		11	13	37.2	37.2
Day, Zach		-8	-7	-2.8	-2.8
de la Rosa, Jorge	-13	-11	-8.0	-8.0
DeJean, Mike		-5	-4	-2.7	-2.7
Dempster, Ryan		15	13	6.4	6.4
Devine, Joey		-4	-3	-4.4	-4.4
Dohmann, Scott		-3	-3	-0.8	-0.8
Drese, Ryan		0	0	12.8	12.8
Duckworth, Brandon	-2	-3	0.6	0.6
Duke, Zach		3	4	20.0	20.0
Eischen, Joey		-1	-1	4.5	4.5
Embree, Alan		5	4	10.3	10.3
Estes, Shawn		0	1	22.2	22.2
Etherton, Seth		-1	-2	0.8	0.8
Eveland, Dana		-1	-1	3.9	3.9
Eyre, Scott		2	2	8.1	8.1
Falkenborg, Brian	-2	-2	0.3	0.3
Fassero, Jeff		-2	-2	0.6	2.2
Feliciano, Pedro	-1	-1	2.2	2.2
Fernandez, Jared	-1	-2	0.7	0.7
Field, Nate		-2	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Flores, Randy		4	3	9.2	9.2
Floyd, Gavin		-5	-4	1.1	1.1
Fogg, Josh		-9	-8	-5.6	-5.6
Fortunato, Bartolome	-1	-2	0.7	0.8
Francis, Jeff		-11	-7	-5.6	-5.6
Franklin, Ryan		3	3	5.6	7.8
Fuentes, Brian		11	10	5.3	5.3
Fultz, Aaron		1	1	6.1	6.1
Gagne, Eric		21	19	11.4	11.4
Gallo, Mike		-2	-2	2.0	2.0
Geary, Geoff		2	2	6.4	6.4
Germano, Justin		-2	-2	0.6	0.6
Glavine, Tom		5	5	24.4	24.4
Gonzalez, Edgar		-2	-2	-0.6	-0.6
Gonzalez, Jeremi	-1	-2	0.6	1.1
Gonzalez, Mike		19	17	13.9	13.9
Gordon, Tom		18	16	13.1	13.1
Gorzelanny, Tom		-1	-1	3.9	3.9
Gosling, Mike		-3	-3	0.0	0.0
Grabow, John		-2	-1	5.0	5.0
Grimsley, Jason		-3	-3	2.5	2.5
Gryboski, Kevin		-2	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Guzman, Angel		-6	-6	-5.0	-5.0
Haigwood, Daniel	-1	-2	0.6	0.6
Hammond, Chris		2	1	3.6	3.6
Hampton, Mike		-2	-2	-0.4	-0.3
Hamulack, Tim		1	1	6.4	6.4
Hancock, Josh		0	0	2.2	3.3
Harang, Aaron		6	8	17.8	17.8
Heilman, Aaron		4	4	10.6	13.3
Helling, Rick		2	2	7.8	7.8
Hendrickson, Ben	-2	-2	1.1	1.1
Hennessey, Brad		-3	-2	4.4	4.4
Hensley, Clay		6	6	16.7	18.9
Herges, Matt		-3	-3	1.4	1.4
Hernandez, Carlos	-2	-2	0.0	0.0
Hernandez, Livan	13	14	41.1	41.1
Hernandez, Orlando	1	2	10.0	10.0
Hernandez, Roberto	-3	-2	3.1	3.1
Hernandez, Yoel		-2	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Hill, Rich		-2	-2	1.1	1.1
Hirsh, Jason		-1	-1	2.8	2.8
Hoffman, Trevor		25	22	15.0	15.0
Houlton, D.J.		-2	-2	1.1	1.1
Howry, Bob		5	4	9.2	9.2
Hudson, Tim		7	7	25.0	25.0
Hughes, Travis		-1	-1	1.4	1.7
Isringhausen, Jason	21	19	15.0	15.0
Jackson, Zach		-2	-2	-0.3	-0.3
James, Chuck		8	8	15.0	17.8
Jarvis, Kevin		-2	-2	-0.8	-0.8
Jennings, Jason		-15	-12	-3.3	-3.3
Johnson, Josh		-5	-3	6.2	8.9
Johnson, Tyler		-2	-2	1.7	1.7
Johnston, Mike		-2	-3	0.3	0.3
Julio, Jorge		3	3	6.8	6.8
Junge, Eric		-2	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Karp, Josh		-1	-2	0.8	0.8
Kershner, Jason		-1	-2	0.7	0.7
Kim, Byung-Hyun		-7	-4	3.9	3.9
Kim, Sun-Woo		-7	-6	-2.8	-2.8
King, Ray		-3	-3	-1.1	-1.1
Kline, Steve		4	3	8.1	8.1
Kolb, Danny		0	0	2.5	2.5
Koplove, Mike		0	-1	2.8	2.8
Kuo, Hong-Chih		-1	0	3.6	5.0
Lehr, Justin		-4	-4	0.0	1.1
Lerew, Anthony		-1	-2	0.8	0.8
Lidge, Brad		22	20	13.1	13.1
Lidle, Cory		5	6	13.9	13.9
Lieber, Jon		15	15	24.4	24.4
Lima, Jose		-1	-1	2.2	2.2
Linebrink, Scott	9	8	19.7	19.7
Liriano, Pedro		-2	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Looper, Braden		2	2	5.3	5.3
Lopez, Aquilino		-1	-1	1.7	1.7
Lowe, Derek		18	18	41.1	41.1
Lowry, Noah		12	13	34.4	34.4
Lyon, Brandon		1	0	1.4	1.4
Maddux, Greg		14	15	23.9	23.9
Madson, Ryan		-2	-1	2.2	2.2
Maholm, Paul		7	8	28.9	28.9
Maine, John		-2	-2	0.0	0.0
Majewski, Gary		0	0	5.3	5.3
Marquis, Jason		5	5	21.6	21.6
Marshall, Sean		-5	-4	0.0	0.0
Marte, Damaso		-2	-1	4.7	4.7
Martin, Tom		-4	-4	-2.5	-2.5
Martinez, Carlos	-3	-3	-0.3	-0.3
Martinez, Pedro		27	26	50.5	50.5
May, Darrell		-2	-2	-0.8	-0.8
McBride, Macay		-6	-5	-3.0	-1.7
Meaux, Ryan		-1	-2	0.7	0.7
Medders, Brandon	0	0	5.6	5.6
Mercker, Kent		1	1	2.5	2.5
Mesa, Jose		-6	-5	-5.2	-5.2
Messenger, Randy	-6	-5	-0.5	-0.5
Miller, Greg		-1	-2	-0.4	-0.3
Miller, Trever		-1	-1	3.4	3.4
Miller, Wade		0	0	7.2	7.2
Milton, Eric		1	3	4.4	4.4
Mitre, Sergio		-3	-1	10.0	10.0
Moehler, Brian		-12	-9	-5.0	-5.0
Morris, Matt		3	4	15.5	15.5
Mulder, Mark		7	7	26.1	26.1
Mulholland, Terry	0	0	2.8	2.8
Munter, Scott		-1	-2	2.0	2.0
Myers, Brett		10	11	24.4	24.4
Narveson, Chris		-2	-2	-0.3	-0.3
Neal, Blaine		-2	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Nieve, Fernando		-1	-1	3.4	4.4
Nippert, Dustin		0	-1	6.7	6.7
Nitkowski, C.J.		-2	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Nolasco, Ricky		-5	-4	-2.7	-1.1
Novoa, Roberto		-3	-2	0.3	0.3
Obermueller, Wes	-2	-2	-0.4	-0.3
Ohka, Tomo		5	6	15.5	15.5
Ohman, Will		-1	-1	4.5	4.5
Oliver, Darren		-2	-2	0.9	1.7
Olsen, Scott		-7	-4	3.3	3.3
Ortiz, Ramon		9	9	24.4	24.4
Ortiz, Russ		-18	-14	-5.6	-5.6
Osoria, Franquelis	1	0	4.5	4.5
Oswalt, Roy		23	23	51.1	51.1
Park, Chan Ho		-1	2	21.6	21.6
Patterson, John		14	15	36.6	36.6
Peavy, Jake		21	21	46.6	46.6
Pena, Tony		-2	-2	-0.3	-0.3
Penny, Brad		16	15	36.6	36.6
Perez, Odalis		12	12	22.2	22.2
Perez, Oliver		-4	-1	14.4	14.4
Petit, Yusmeiro		-1	-1	3.3	3.3
Pettitte, Andy		14	14	29.4	29.4
Pinto, Renyel		-1	-1	1.4	1.7
Ponson, Sidney		5	6	21.1	21.1
Prinz, Bret		-2	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Prior, Mark		8	9	22.2	22.2
Qualls, Chad		1	2	7.5	7.5
Ramirez, Elizardo	-2	-2	-0.6	-0.6
Ramirez, Horacio	3	4	18.3	18.3
Rauch, Jon		6	5	11.7	13.3
Reitsma, Chris		12	10	3.1	3.1
Remlinger, Mike		-1	-1	2.2	2.2
Resop, Chris		-5	-4	0.0	0.0
Reyes, Anthony		2	2	8.9	8.9
Rhodes, Arthur		4	3	8.5	8.5
Rincon, Ricardo		3	3	8.9	8.9
Ring, Royce		-2	-2	1.7	1.7
Rodriguez, Felix	1	1	9.5	9.5
Rodriguez, Wandy	0	1	11.7	11.7
Rupe, Ryan		-1	-2	0.3	0.3
Rusch, Glendon		0	1	10.5	10.5
Ryu, Jae Kuk		-1	-2	0.6	0.6
Sanchez, Anibal		0	-1	2.2	2.2
Sanchez, Duaner		-1	0	5.3	5.3
Santana, Julio		-1	0	5.9	5.9
Santos, Victor		-3	-2	7.8	7.8
Schmidt, Jason		4	6	28.9	28.9
Sele, Aaron		-3	-3	-1.9	-1.9
Seo, Jae Weong		14	14	28.9	28.9
Shackelford, Brian	0	-1	2.8	2.8
Sheets, Ben		24	24	43.8	43.8
Simpson, Allan		-2	-2	0.7	0.7
Smoltz, John		15	15	34.4	34.4
Snell, Ian		-4	-3	4.4	4.4
Sosa, Jorge		0	1	14.4	14.4
Springer, Russ		0	0	3.6	3.6
Stanton, Mike		0	0	7.0	7.0
Stauffer, Tim		-2	-1	4.4	4.4
Strickland, Scott	-1	-2	0.7	0.7
Suppan, Jeff		4	4	16.7	16.7
Sweeney, Brian		-2	-2	-0.5	-0.5
Tankersley, Taylor	-2	-2	-0.4	-0.3
Taschner, Jack		-1	-2	1.7	1.7
Tejeda, Rob		-1	0	8.9	8.9
Tejera, Michael		-1	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Thompson, Brad		3	3	10.9	10.9
Thompson, Justin	-1	-2	0.7	0.7
Thomson, John		0	1	10.0	10.0
Tomko, Brett		10	10	24.4	24.4
Torres, Salomon		2	2	11.2	11.2
Traber, Billy		0	-1	2.8	2.8
Trachsel, Steve		6	6	21.1	21.1
Tsao, Chin-hui		-2	-3	-0.5	-0.5
Turnbow, Derrick	19	17	11.7	11.7
Valdez, Merkin		-2	-2	1.4	1.4
Valverde, Jose		13	12	8.4	8.4
Van Benschoten, John	-2	-2	-0.3	-0.3
Vargas, Claudio		3	5	15.5	15.5
Vargas, Jason		-9	-6	7.8	7.8
Villarreal, Oscar	2	2	7.3	7.3
Vizcaino, Luis		0	1	3.9	3.9
Vogelsong, Ryan		-5	-4	-0.2	1.7
Wagner, Billy		28	26	22.0	22.0
Wagner, Ryan		-1	-2	2.0	2.0
Wainwright, Adam	-1	-1	0.6	2.2
Walker, Tyler		0	0	-0.5	-0.5
Weathers, David		8	7	5.3	5.3
Webb, Brandon		16	16	47.7	47.7
Wellemeyer, Todd	-6	-5	-1.1	0.0
Wells, Kip		-3	-2	5.6	5.6
Wheeler, Dan		9	9	14.2	14.2
White, Rick		0	0	2.0	2.0
Williams, Dave		3	4	12.2	12.2
Williams, Jerome	4	4	16.1	16.1
Williams, Woody		1	2	11.1	11.1
Williamson, Scott	2	2	7.8	7.8
Willis, Dontrelle	4	6	23.3	23.3
Wilson, Paul		-1	-1	3.3	3.3
Wise, Matt		1	1	6.1	6.1
Wolf, Randy		1	1	5.0	5.0
Wood, Kerry		5	6	18.9	18.9
Worrell, Tim		5	4	5.9	5.9
Wright, Jamey		-6	-5	6.7	6.7
Wuertz, Mike		-2	-1	4.7	4.7
Wunsch, Kelly		-1	-2	0.7	0.7
Young, Chris		15	16	36.6	36.6
Zambrano, Carlos	23	24	56.1	56.1
Zambrano, Victor	1	2	18.9	18.9


Please feel free to write with your questions and comments.


Today's Fantasy Rx: The key to succeeding in the web contests with IP or Games Started Maximums involves efficient use of your pitchers. As most of the games allow teams a three-person bench in support of a nine-man pitching staff, you should not need to draft more than four or five decent starting pitchers. Focus on building a top-of-the-line offense, grab two secure closers, and then add four highly-skilled middle relievers. Selecting the two set-up men for your closers greatly minimizes the downside of any injury to your high picks.

Then exercise extreme caution when setting your lineup. Do not deploy any starter in a bad match-up or in a firm hitters' park. Later in the season a couple of your competitors invariably will max on starts, then either drop all their starters or deal them at a severe discount. Not only will this tactic maximize your quality starts, but you also establish a tremendous ERA/WHIP foundation. While you might run slightly short on strikeouts, your four-category dominance should easily compensate in the overall standings.

We normally prefer to draft six starters and six middle relievers then carefully rotate the starters. Also, consider drafting an extra batter or two instead of a fifth or sixth starter. Target low-risk guys that can play multiple positions, then use them whenever your regulars have a day off or miss a couple of games with a nagging injury. The extra ABs not only improve you quantitatively on offense, but using those bench spots for bats absolutely insures you will not spend all your starts early in the year before you have the chance to raid other rosters.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
Daily Fantasy Rx
Out of the Frying Pan

Article Archives
Advertise on
Rotohelp
All content ©2001-17 Rotohelp, Inc. All rights reserved. PO Box 72054 Roselle, IL 60172.
Please send your comments, suggestions, and complaints to: admin@rotohelp.com.