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March
31st
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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Our Philosophy

2006 AL Pitcher Draft Values
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Download the spreadsheet with our complete projected stats for 4x4, 5x5, simulation, and Scoresheet leagues here; this file also includes final 2005 AL LPR values for qualifying pitchers based on this key.


The Draft Values presented below only apply to AL-only 12 team leagues using traditional 4x4 or 5x5 scoring and $260 of cap space to draft 14 hitters and 9 pitchers employing a 70/30 hitting/pitching split. Based on league data and recent trends, we selected a 4.69 ERA and a 1.415 WHIP as the baseline values necessary to calculate the respective ERA and WHIP Category Dollars.

Simulation league projections involve computing Runs Above Replacement for each pitcher based on expected role, and then our Scoresheet projections compute RAR after considering whether Scoresheet lists each pitcher as a starter or reliever.

While we undoubtedly missed a few dozen pitchers who unexpectedly will reach the majors this season, we included the only 275 American League pitchers with any significant chance of deserving a nomination in your 2006 spring draft.


Top 3 AL 4x4 Starters: Johan Santana, $32; Barry Zito, $24; Randy Johnson, $22.

Top 3 AL 5x5 Starters: Johan Santana, $32; Barry Zito, $23; Randy Johnson, $22.

Top 3 AL Sim Starters: Johan Santana, 71.4 RAR; Barry Zito, 60.3, Randy Johnson, 49.3.

Top 3 AL 4x4 Relievers: Huston Street, $28; Mariano Rivera, $27; Joe Nathan, $27.

Top 3 AL 5x5 Relievers: Huston Street, $25; Joe Nathan, $25; Mariano Rivera, $24.

Top 3 AL Sim Relievers: Francisco Rodriguez, 18.8 RAR; Joe Nathan, 17.8; Mariano Rivera, 16.7.


Best AL Wins/Ks Sleepers likely to beat this projection: C.C. Sabathia, $16; Rich Harden, $15; Casey Fossum, $4.

Best All-Around Starting Pitcher Sleepers: Kelvim Escobar, $14; John Lackey, $12; Daniel Cabrera, $5.


Best AL Saves Sleepers: Fernando Cabrera, $8; Rafael Soriano, $6; Neal Cotts, $6.

AL Relievers most likely to vulture 10+ Wins: LaTroy Hawkins, $8; Scot Shields, $6; Juan Rincon, $5.

First tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Julian Tavarez, $-1; Mike Timlin, $8; Kiko Calero, $5, Guillermo Mota, $4; LaTroy Hawkins, $8.

Second tier of non-closing relievers with consistently excellent skills: Kyle Farnsworth, $3; Octavio Dotel, $0; Akinori Otsuka, $1; Juan Rincon, $6; Rafael Betancourt, $5; Matt Miller, $3.

Top 2006 AL Pitcher Sleeper: Kelvim Escobar, $14. Standard sleepers like John Lackey and Daniel Cabrera merit mention here. Everyone on Oakland's staff also will look good when the A's win over 100 games. However, when finishing and fine-tuning these projections, Escobar leapt out at me. He always has owned good skills, and now he plays for a team with solid defense, an outstanding bullpen, and a respectable offense. Continued health problems certainly could limit him to the $14 we expect, but after watching his former teammate Chris Carpenter toast the NL last year, I see no reason Escobar cannot repeat Carpenter's feats. Go the extra dollar.


Rotohelp's 2006 AL Pitcher Projected Draft Values

Pitchers		4x4	5x5	RAR	ARAR
Affeldt, Jeremy		-5	-3	6.7	6.7
Alfonseca, Antonio	-3	-3	-6.3	-6.3
Almanza, Armando	-2	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Alvarez, Abe		-2	-2	0.0	0.0
Anderson, Brian		-2	-2	-0.6	-0.6
Andrade, Steve		-2	-2	-0.3	-0.3
Atchison, Scott		-3	-3	-3.8	-3.8
Baek, Cha Seung		-2	-3	-2.5	-2.5
Baker, Scott		5	5	17.7	17.7
Baldwin, James		-1	-2	-0.1	-0.1
Banks, Josh		-2	-2	0.0	0.0
Bautista, Denny		-2	-2	8.0	-3.7
Bazardo, Yorman		-2	-3	0.0	0.0
Bean, Colter		-2	-2	-0.1	-0.1
Beckett, Josh		11	12	34.0	34.0
Bedard, Erik		4	6	28.4	28.4
Benoit, Joaquin		2	3	-0.1	9.3
Benson, Kris		9	9	27.3	27.3
Betancourt, Rafael	5	5	6.9	6.9
Blanton, Joe		13	13	35.0	35.0
Bonderman, Jeremy	5	6	21.8	21.8
Bonser, Boof		-1	-2	1.0	1.0
Bootcheck, Chris	-2	-3	0.0	0.0
Britton, Chris		-1	-2	0.5	0.5
Brower, Jim		-1	-1	-2.1	-2.1
Brown, Andrew		-1	-1	0.8	0.8
Buehrle, Mark		19	19	44.6	44.6
Bulger, Jason		-2	-2	-0.6	-0.6
Burgos, Ambiorix	1	1	-2.1	-2.1
Burnett, A.J.		6	8	27.4	27.4
Byrd, Paul		12	11	30.8	30.8
Byrdak, Tim		-3	-3	-2.7	-2.7
Cabrera, Daniel		5	7	35.0	35.0
Cabrera, Fernando	8	7	10.1	10.1
Calero, Kiko		5	4	7.5	7.5
Camp, Shawn		0	-1	-3.1	-3.1
Carmona, Fausto		-1	-1	2.1	2.1
Carrasco, Hector	1	1	1.2	9.4
Carvajal, Marcos	-1	-2	1.0	1.0
Castilla, Santiago	0	-1	1.9	1.9
Castro, Fabio		-2	-2	-0.6	4.1
Chacin, Gustavo		-6	-4	-2.7	-2.7
Chacon, Shawn		7	7	25.3	25.3
Chen, Bruce		10	10	30.6	30.6
Childers, Jason		-3	-3	-2.7	-2.7
Chulk, Vinnie		-1	-1	-2.0	-2.0
Clement, Matt		12	13	40.5	40.5
Colome, Jesus		4	3	6.9	6.9
Colon, Bartolo		10	11	27.1	27.1
Colon, Roman		-2	-2	0.6	0.6
Contreras, Jose		9	10	28.4	28.4
Corcoran, Tim		-2	-2	-0.6	-0.6
Cordero, Francisco	17	16	5.6	5.6
Cotts, Neal		6	5	8.0	8.0
Crain, Jesse		5	4	7.8	7.8
Cruceta, Fernando	-2	-2	-0.6	-0.6
Danks, John		-2	-3	0.0	0.0
Darensbourg, Vic	-2	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Davis, Jason		-1	-1	-0.6	4.1
Delcarmen, Manny	-2	-2	-0.9	2.0
DePaula, Jorge		-2	-3	-0.6	0.0
Dessens, Elmer		1	0	-0.9	6.1
Diamond, Thomas		-2	-3	0.0	0.0
Dickey, R.A.		-4	-3	1.2	1.2
DiNardo, Lenny		1	0	1.6	6.3
Dominguez, Juan		-2	-3	-0.1	-0.1
Donnelly, Brendan	3	3	5.8	5.8
Dotel, Octavio		0	0	1.1	1.1
Downs, Scott		-2	-2	1.7	1.7
DuBose, Eric		-1	-1	-0.7	5.1
Duchscherer, Justin	8	7	10.1	10.1
Durbin, J.D.		-2	-3	-1.4	0.9
Eaton, Adam		-2	-1	4.4	4.4
Elarton, Scott		-4	-2	1.8	1.8
Erickson, Scott		-2	-3	-2.5	-2.5
Escobar, Kelvim		14	15	41.8	41.8
Eyre, Willie		-1	-1	0.2	0.2
Farnsworth, Kyle	3	3	3.4	3.4
Feldman, Scott		-1	-1	1.5	1.5
Flores, Ron		-1	-2	0.5	0.5
Foppert, Jesse		0	0	10.4	10.4
Fossum, Casey		4	6	19.5	19.5
Foulke, Keith		16	14	4.7	4.7
Francisco, Frank	-1	-1	1.9	1.9
Franklin, Wayne		-1	-2	-0.3	-0.3
Frasor, Jason		3	3	4.5	4.5
Fruto, Emiliano		-2	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Garcia, Freddy		10	11	29.3	29.3
Garland, Jon		13	13	30.4	30.4
Gassner, Dave		-2	-2	0.0	0.0
Gaudin, Chad		-1	-2	0.5	1.1
German, Franklyn	-3	-3	-1.4	-1.4
Glynn, Ryan		-2	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Gobble, Jimmy		-2	-2	-4.1	1.8
Graves, Danny		1	1	-0.7	-0.7
Gregg, Kevin		-1	-1	-0.6	4.1
Greinke, Zach		-1	-1	4.9	4.9
Grilli, Jason		-1	-2	-1.1	3.0
Gronkiewicz, Lee	-1	-2	-1.7	-1.2
Guardado, Eddie		16	13	3.8	3.8
Guerrier, Matt		1	1	0.1	0.1
Guthrie, Jeremy		-2	-2	-0.1	1.0
Halama, John		1	1	0.1	0.1
Halladay, Roy		14	16	43.6	43.6
Halsey, Brad		0	-1	0.8	0.8
Hammel, Jason		-2	-2	0.9	0.9
Hansen, Craig		1	1	-0.7	5.1
Harden, Rich		15	15	42.9	42.9
Haren, Dan		16	16	40.5	40.5
Harper, Travis		2	1	-1.0	-1.0
Harris, Jeff		-1	-2	-2.8	-2.8
Harville, Chad		-2	-2	-1.4	-1.4
Hawkins, LaTroy		8	7	11.2	11.2
Hendrickson, Mark	-3	-2	1.0	1.0
Henn, Sean		-2	-3	-0.6	0.0
Hermanson, Dustin	0	-1	-0.9	-0.9
Hernandez, Felix	16	16	46.2	46.2
Hernandez, Runelvys	-4	-3	5.3	5.3
Holtz, Mike		-2	-2	-0.6	-0.6
Howell, J.P.		-2	-3	1.0	1.0
Hudson, Luke		-3	-4	-4.9	-1.4
Jackson, Edwin		-2	-1	6.7	6.7
Janssen, Casey		-1	-2	1.1	1.1
Jenks, Bobby		15	14	4.7	4.7
Johnson, Jason		7	7	24.0	24.0
Johnson, Randy		22	22	49.3	49.3
Jones, Greg		-2	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Jones, Todd		12	11	4.5	4.5
Karsay, Steve		-2	-2	-0.1	-0.1
Kazmir, Scott		1	4	26.0	26.0
Kennedy, Joe		2	2	2.4	9.5
Komine, Shane		-2	-2	-0.6	-0.6
Koronka, John		-3	-3	-3.1	-3.1
Lackey, John		12	14	41.4	41.4
League, Brandon		-2	-3	-1.3	-0.1
Ledezma, Wil		-3	-3	-2.5	-0.2
Lee, Cliff		12	13	34.9	34.9
Lester, Jon		-1	-2	2.0	2.0
Lilly, Ted		3	5	16.3	16.3
Liotta, Ray		-1	-2	1.1	1.1
Liriano, Francisco	6	7	6.0	20.1
Livingston, Bobby	-1	-2	1.0	1.0
Loaiza, Esteban		12	13	31.7	31.7
Loe, Kameron		2	2	17.5	17.5
Loewen, Adam		-2	-3	0.0	0.0
Logan, Boone		-4	-4	-6.0	-6.0
Lohse, Kyle		4	5	15.2	15.2
Lopez, Javier		-2	-2	-0.3	-0.3
Lopez, Rodrigo		3	3	15.2	15.2
Lugo, Ruddy		-2	-2	0.3	0.3
MacDougal, Mike		8	7	-0.7	-0.7
Madritsch, Bobby	-1	-2	1.1	1.1
Marcum, Shaun		-2	-2	-0.6	0.0
Maroth, Mike		2	3	11.6	11.6
Mateo, Julio		6	6	9.0	17.2
Mays, Joe		-6	-6	-3.3	-3.3
McCarthy, Brandon	4	4	1.0	10.4
McClung, Seth		2	4	17.5	17.5
McGowan, Dustin		-1	-1	-2.0	0.9
Meadows, Brian		4	3	2.3	2.3
Meche, Gil		2	3	14.5	14.5
Mendoza, Ramiro		-1	-2	-0.1	-0.1
Meredith, Cla		-2	-3	-1.3	-1.3
Meyer, Dan		-2	-2	0.0	0.0
Miceli, Dan		8	7	-1.0	-1.0
Miller, Justin		-2	-2	-0.1	1.0
Miller, Matt J.		3	2	5.9	5.9
Millwood, Kevin		0	2	8.4	8.4
Morris, Cory		-3	-3	-2.4	-2.4
Mota, Guillermo		4	3	3.7	3.7
Moyer, Jamie		-1	0	6.2	6.2
Munro, Peter		-2	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Mussina, Mike		5	7	16.0	16.0
Myers, Mike		0	0	2.3	2.3
Nageotte, Clint		0	-1	0.7	4.2
Nathan, Joe		27	25	17.8	17.8
Niemann, Jeff		-1	-1	3.2	3.2
Nunez, Leo		-2	-3	-2.4	-2.4
Orvella, Chad		7	6	1.5	1.5
Otsuka, Akinori		1	1	0.2	0.2
Padilla, Vicente	-2	0	6.4	6.4
Papelbon, Jon		2	2	-1.5	10.2
Parrish, John		-2	-3	0.2	0.2
Pavano, Carl		3	3	9.0	9.0
Penn, Hayden		-3	-3	-0.3	-0.3
Peralta, Joel		-2	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Pineiro, Joel		1	2	12.8	12.8
Politte, Cliff		3	2	2.6	2.6
Proctor, Scott		-1	-1	-0.7	5.1
Putz, J.J.		1	1	-0.9	-0.9
Radke, Brad		15	15	33.9	33.9
Ramirez, Erasmo		-1	-1	0.8	0.8
Ray, Chris		18	16	2.3	2.3
Redding, Tim		-2	-2	-0.6	-0.6
Redman, Mark		-4	-3	4.2	4.2
Regilio, Nick		-2	-3	-0.6	0.0
Rheinecker, John	0	-1	4.2	4.2
Rincon, Juan		6	6	11.0	11.0
Riske, David		6	5	9.0	9.0
Rivera, Mariano		27	24	16.7	16.7
Rleal, Sendy		0	-1	0.0	0.0
Robertson, Nate		2	3	12.9	12.9
Rodney, Fernando	6	5	-0.9	-0.9
Rodriguez, Eddy		-3	-3	-3.0	-3.0
Rodriguez, Francisco	26	24	18.8	18.8
Rogers, Kenny		0	1	11.8	11.8
Romero, J.C.		3	2	7.0	7.0
Rosario, Francisco	-2	-3	-0.6	0.0
Rupe, Josh		-2	-3	-0.2	-0.2
Ryan, B.J.		18	17	4.5	4.5
Saarloos, Kirk		-1	-2	-3.1	3.9
Sabathia, C.C.		16	16	48.2	48.2
Sanchez, Humberto	-2	-3	-0.6	0.0
Santana, Ervin		2	3	15.1	-6.0
Santana, Johan		32	32	71.4	71.4
Sauerbeck, Scott	2	2	4.8	4.8
Saunders, Joe		-1	-2	1.0	1.0
Schilling, Curt		17	17	39.6	39.6
Schoeneweis, Scott	-2	-2	-0.9	-0.9
Seanez, Rudy		0	0	1.0	1.0
Seay, Bobby		0	0	1.6	1.6
Sherrill, George	1	1	2.6	2.6
Shields, Jamie		-2	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Shields, Scot		8	8	9.9	9.9
Shouse, Brian		0	0	0.4	0.4
Silva, Carlos		8	8	17.1	17.1
Sipp, Tony		-1	-2	1.0	1.0
Sisco, Andy		0	0	-2.0	-2.0
Small, Aaron		0	-1	-0.9	6.1
Snyder, Kyle		-2	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Soriano, Rafael		7	6	5.8	5.8
Sowers, Jeremy		-1	-2	1.0	1.0
Speier, Justin		7	6	9.1	9.1
Spurling, Chris		2	2	4.5	4.5
Stemle, Steve		-3	-3	-3.9	-3.9
Stephens, John		-2	-2	0.0	-0.6
Stokes, Brian		-2	-3	-0.6	0.0
Street, Huston		28	25	13.4	13.4
Sturtze, Tanyon		0	0	-2.1	6.1
Switzer, Jon		-3	-3	-3.6	-1.3
Tadano, Kazuhito	-2	-2	-0.6	0.0
Tallet, Brian		-2	-3	-2.5	-2.5
Tavarez, Julian		-1	-1	-3.1	-3.1
Thornton, Matt		-3	-2	-3.0	-3.0
Timlin, Mike		6	5	0.1	0.1
Towers, Josh		-1	0	1.8	1.8
Tracey, Sean		-2	-3	-1.3	-0.1
Van Buren, Jermaine	-1	-2	0.5	0.5
Vazquez, Javier		16	17	37.0	37.0
Verlander, Justin	3	5	23.0	23.0
Villone, Ron		0	0	-0.7	-0.7
Volquez, Edinson	-3	-3	-2.7	-2.7
Waechter, Doug		1	1	8.2	8.2
Wakefield, Tim		8	8	25.1	25.1
Walker, Jamie		1	1	0.4	0.4
Walker, Kevin		-3	-3	-3.5	-2.3
Walker, Pete		-1	-2	-1.9	4.0
Wang, Chien-Ming	8	8	24.1	24.1
Wasdin, John		-1	-2	-1.6	2.0
Washburn, Jarrod	9	9	28.4	28.4
Weaver, Jeff		13	13	34.8	34.8
Weaver, Jered		-2	-2	0.0	0.0
Wells, David		5	5	13.2	13.2
Westbrook, Jake		13	13	39.3	39.3
Wickman, Bob		16	14	1.5	1.5
Williams, Todd		0	-1	3.4	3.4
Wilson, C.J.		-3	-3	-0.3	-0.3
Witasick, Jay		2	2	3.6	3.6
Wood, Mike		0	0	-3.4	6.0
Woods, Jake		-1	-1	-1.9	-1.9
Woodyard, Mark		-2	-3	-1.3	-1.3
Wright, Jaret		-6	-5	-0.9	-0.9
Yan, Esteban		-1	-1	-1.9	-1.9
Zito, Barry		24	23	60.3	60.3
Zumaya, Joel		2	3	2.0	12.5


Please feel free to write in with your questions and comments.

Tomorrow we will post and review our NL pitcher projections.


Today's Fantasy Rx: Given our repeatedly expressed desire to focus on building our offenses due to the superior reliability of hitters, we have settled on two pitching strategies that increasingly look like safe options to secure in-the-money finishes. In leagues without an IP minimum, we regularly punt wins, as well as strikeouts in 5x5, spending the vast majority of our cap space or picks on top position players and a couple of closers before grabbing and then frequently shuffling highly-skilled middle relievers.

Wherever league rules impose a minimum number of IP, we are trending toward drafting strikeouts and a few saves at the exclusion of every other category. We originally saw this plan executed in Tout Wars a few years ago, and although 4x4 leagues require more selectivity, high strikeout pitchers also rack plenty of innings and therefore wins while leaving your team with average qualitative stats. Generally anyone that finishes top-three in every offensive category and three pitching categories will finish high in the standings. You still need to defer to pitchers with all-around skills as your tiebreaker, but the key to both these strategies is minimizing your overall team risk to insure a top-four finish, and with any luck, a Yoo-Hoo shower.


Click here to read the previous article.

Please e-mail your comments to tim@rotohelp.com.
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