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March
30th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 NL Batter Draft Values
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Download the spreadsheet with our complete projected stats for 4x4, 5x5, simulation, and Scoresheet leagues here. The file also includes position eligibility data based on the standard 20 game minimum.

The Draft Values presented below only apply to NL-only 12 team leagues using traditional 4x4 or 5x5 scoring and $260 of cap space to draft 14 hitters and 9 pitchers employing a 70/30 hitting/pitching split. Based on league data and recent trends, we selected a .2569 BA as the baseline value necessary to calculate the BA Category Dollars.

Simulation league projections involve computing Runs Above Replacement for each hitter, and then our Scoresheet projections adjust that RAR to consider each player's defensive rating in that format.

While we undoubtedly missed a few dozen players who unexpectedly will reach the majors this season, we included the only 314 National League batters with any significant chance of deserving a nomination in your 2006 spring draft.


Top 3 AL 4x4 Batters: Albert Pujols, $49; Juan Pierre, $41; Jason Bay, $40.

Top 3 AL 5x5 Batters: Albert Pujols, $46; Juan Pierre, $38; Jason Bay, $38.

Top 3 Sim Batters: Albert Pujols, 75.9 RAR; Jason Bay, 59.2; Todd Helton, 55.4.

Top 3 Scoresheet Batters: Albert Pujols, 79.2 ARAR; Todd Helton, 68.5; Derrek Lee, 57.9.


Most Likely Fantasy Breakouts by position:

C: Yorvit Torrealba, Yadier Molina.

1B: Adam LaRoche, Mike Jacobs.

3B: David Wright, Edwin Encarnacion.

2B: Chase Utley, Jose Castillo.

SS: Khalil Greene, Adam Everett.

OF: Austin Kearns, Brad Hawpe, Ryan Langerhans, Xavier Nady, Larry Bigbie.

Top 3 Batters who could beat this projection with more AB: Ryan Freel, Chris Burke, Nate McLouth.

"Cheap" speed that shouldn't cost this much: Hector Luna, Jason Ellison, Jeff DaVanon.

Top 4 "$1" Catchers: Miguel Olivo, Ramon Castro, Chris Snyder.

Top 2006 AL Batter Sleeper: Juan Encarnacion, $22/$21. A few players like Cory Sullivan, Jack Wilson, Luis A. Gonzalez, and Adam LaRoche earned consideration here, but even without rediscovering his lost speed, Encarnacion looks prepared to flourish in St. Louis. He owns strong base power skills and almost certainly will spend all season hitting behind Pujols, Edmonds, and Rolen, presenting him with an absolute ton of RBI opportunities. Even a 30/100 season wouldn't shock me, so take advantage of any lull in the bidding to grab him anywhere in the teens.


Rotohelp's 2006 NL Batter Projected Draft Values

Batter			4x4	5x5	RAR	ARAR
Abercrombie, Reggie	1	2	-16.3	-16.3
Abreu, Bobby		36	34	38.2	37.2
Aguila, Chris		9	9	1.1	-1.5
Alfonzo, Eliezer	-3	-3	0.0	0.0
Alomar, Jr., Sandy	-6	-5	-5.3	-5.9
Alou, Moises		22	21	23.2	16.7
Amezaga, Alfredo	-1	-1	-4.0	-4.0
Anderson, Marlon	1	1	-2.1	-4.4
Andino, Robert		-1	0	-2.7	-2.7
Ankiel, Rick		-3	-3	-1.7	-1.7
Ardoin, Danny		0	0	3.5	6.1
Atkins, Garrett		15	15	4.7	-0.5
Aurilia, Rich		2	2	4.2	0.3
Ausmus, Brad		-1	0	-1.7	-1.0
Aybar, Willy		-3	-3	-1.2	-1.2
Bagwell, Jeff		-3	-3	-0.1	-0.1
Baker, Jeff		-2	-3	0.5	0.5
Barfield, Josh		8	8	2.3	2.3
Barmes, Clint		28	28	28.1	24.6
Barrett, Michael	15	14	28.1	23.6
Bautista, Jose		-3	-3	-0.4	-0.4
Bay, Jason		40	38	59.2	51.9
Bell, David		2	2	-5.3	0.6
Bellhorn, Mark		-4	-3	-1.5	-0.7
Beltran, Carlos		29	27	20.8	35.2
Bennett, Gary		-1	-1	1.1	1.1
Bergolla, Willie	-2	-3	-0.1	-0.1
Berkman, Lance		31	30	52.4	48.2
Betemit, Wilson		3	4	5.6	4.8
Bigbie, Larry		7	7	5.5	6.4
Biggio, Craig		8	10	9.0	1.5
Blanco, Henry		-5	-4	-3.3	-1.8
Blum, Geoff		2	2	5.8	1.8
Bonds, Barry		25	25	48.8	43.3
Bourn, Mike		-3	-3	-1.0	-1.0
Broadway, Larry		-3	-3	-0.3	-0.3
Bruntlett, Eric		3	3	4.1	2.4
Burke, Chris		11	11	9.5	1.9
Burnitz, Jeromy		12	13	5.3	4.4
Burrell, Pat		21	20	34.0	30.1
Byrd, Marlon		5	5	-4.1	-3.2
Byrnes, Eric		10	10	8.3	9.2
Cabrera, Miguel		26	25	34.5	33.5
Callaspo, Alberto	-1	-2	0.7	0.7
Cameron, Mike		9	9	-2.1	6.6
Carroll, Jamey		5	5	8.9	6.4
Casey, Sean		18	18	8.9	8.0
Castilla, Vinny		-1	0	-7.8	-4.5
Castillo, Alberto	-4	-4	-2.6	-2.6
Castillo, Jose		8	9	8.1	5.6
Casto, Kory		-3	-3	-0.3	-0.3
Castro, Bernie		-3	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Castro, Ramon		0	0	4.5	5.4
Cedeno, Ronny		10	10	9.8	9.0
Cepicky, Matt		-3	-3	-0.3	-0.3
Chavez, Angel		-3	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Chavez, Endy		1	1	-4.2	-3.4
Chavez, Raul		-5	-5	-4.6	-4.0
Church, Ryan		2	2	-2.2	-3.0
Cirillo, Jeff		1	1	1.7	1.7
Clark, Brady		15	15	3.5	12.4
Clark, Tony		7	7	12.6	11.5
Clayton, Royce		-4	-3	-4.7	-6.7
Closser, J.D.		0	0	5.7	4.0
Coste, Chris		-3	-3	-0.8	-5.4
Cota, Humberto		-3	-3	-1.6	-1.6
Counsell, Craig		0	1	-0.4	1.1
Cruz, Jacob		-2	-2	-0.7	-0.7
Cruz, Jr., Jose		8	9	10.4	9.4
Cruz, Nelson		-2	-2	0.5	0.5
Daubach, Brian		-3	-3	0.0	0.0
DaVanon, Jeff		5	6	5.5	7.3
Delgado, Carlos		22	21	28.5	27.5
Denorfia, Chris		-2	-2	-0.5	-0.5
Diaz, Matt		8	7	4.4	2.6
Diaz, Victor		6	6	5.0	0.6
Doumit, Ryan		3	4	-0.2	1.4
Drew, J.D.		14	15	23.6	27.6
Drew, Stephen		4	4	9.1	9.1
Duffy, Chris		8	8	-5.5	-1.4
Duncan, Chris		-2	-2	-1.2	-1.2
Dunn, Adam		17	18	36.3	35.3
Durham, Ray		12	13	15.5	10.4
Easley, Damion		-1	0	3.7	1.3
Eckstein, David		14	15	9.7	9.7
Edmonds, Jim		18	18	38.2	51.6
Edwards, Mike		-3	-3	-0.5	-0.5
Eldred, Brad		-2	-2	0.1	-0.8
Ellison, Jason		7	7	-5.8	-1.6
Encarnacion, Edwin	8	9	7.1	3.5
Encarnacion, Juan	22	21	17.7	13.9
Ensberg, Morgan		25	24	41.1	41.1
Estrada, Johnny		7	6	8.9	7.2
Ethier, Andre		-2	-3	0.6	0.6
Everett, Adam		10	9	3.6	16.8
Fasano, Sal		-1	0	2.3	0.6
Feliz, Pedro		4	8	-10.4	-2.8
Fick, Rob		-2	-2	0.1	-1.4
Fielder, Prince		15	15	8.3	8.3
Finley, Steve		4	5	-5.5	-3.8
Floyd, Cliff		14	14	7.7	5.0
Franco, Julio		1	1	-2.8	-2.8
Francoeur, Jeff		13	13	6.9	3.3
Frandsen, Kevin		-2	-3	0.3	0.3
Freel, Ryan		18	18	4.0	6.4
Freeman, Choo		-2	-2	-1.8	-1.0
Furcal, Rafael		22	22	14.9	18.2
Gall, John		-3	-3	0.0	0.0
Garciaparra, Nomar	21	20	31.4	17.5
Gerut, Jody		6	5	8.1	5.3
Giles, Brian		28	27	50.9	49.9
Giles, Marcus		30	30	40.7	57.3
Gimenez, Hector		-3	-3	0.3	0.3
Godwin, Tyrell		-3	-3	-1.5	-1.5
Gonzalez, Adrian	2	2	-1.1	-1.1
Gonzalez, Alex S.	1	1	3.7	2.9
Gonzalez, Luis		8	10	6.7	1.6
Gonzalez, Luis A.	18	17	17.4	12.1
Gonzalez, Wiki		-3	-4	-0.6	-0.6
Green, Andy		1	1	2.8	2.8
Green, Shawn		18	18	21.2	20.3
Greene, Khalil		18	18	27.4	21.2
Greene, Todd		-1	-1	0.3	-2.0
Griffey, Jr., Ken	13	13	19.4	18.4
Gross, Gabe		-2	-2	-0.6	-1.4
Guillen, Jose		4	5	-2.2	-4.8
Guzman, Cristian	5	5	4.5	-1.0
Guzman, Freddy		-2	-3	-1.3	-1.3
Guzman, Joel		-2	-2	1.9	1.9
Gwynn, Anthony		-3	-3	-1.3	-1.3
Hairston, Jerry		8	8	5.1	7.6
Hairston, Scott		-1	-2	1.5	1.5
Hall, Bill		12	11	12.8	14.5
Hardy, J.J.		8	10	17.5	12.5
Harris, Brendan		-3	-3	0.1	0.1
Hart, Corey		4	5	0.1	0.1
Hatteberg, Scott	4	4	-4.4	-7.8
Hawpe, Brad		11	11	12.2	5.1
Helms, Wes		-1	-1	-5.6	-12.7
Helton, Todd		35	33	55.4	68.5
Hermida, Jeremy		21	22	17.3	16.4
Hernandez, Anderson	7	7	0.1	0.1
Hernandez, Jose		-2	-1	0.5	0.5
Hill, Koyie		-4	-4	0.0	0.0
Holliday, Matt		33	30	32.7	27.7
Howard, Ryan		17	17	15.2	14.3
Hudson, Orlando		18	18	21.4	38.1
Izturis, Cesar		-1	0	-7.0	-4.9
Jackson, Conor		9	9	8.7	8.7
Jackson, Damian		0	1	-2.1	-4.3
Jacobs, Mike		10	11	-0.7	-1.6
Jenkins, Geoff		16	18	20.1	18.2
Jimerson, Charlton	-3	-3	-1.7	-1.7
Johnson, Ben		-2	-2	-2.4	-2.4
Johnson, Kelly		-1	-1	-1.2	-0.4
Johnson, Mark		-4	-4	-1.1	-1.1
Johnson, Nick		17	16	23.5	26.5
Jones, Andruw		25	24	30.5	42.7
Jones, Chipper		27	26	47.9	39.6
Jones, Jacque		15	15	5.6	2.9
Jordan, Brian		-4	-4	-6.1	-6.1
Jurries, James		-2	-2	0.1	0.1
Kata, Matt		-3	-3	-2.1	-2.1
Kearns, Austin		19	19	20.0	21.9
Kent, Jeff		18	19	23.5	21.7
Keppinger, Jeff		0	0	1.9	1.9
Klesko, Ryan		5	7	1.5	-3.5
Knoedler, Justin	-3	-3	-1.3	-1.3
Koskie, Corey		7	8	5.0	6.8
Kottaras, George	-3	-3	0.9	0.9
Kroeger, Josh		-2	-3	0.9	0.9
Krynzel, Dave		-3	-3	-1.0	-1.0
LaForest, Pete		-4	-4	-0.5	-0.5
Lamb, Mike		3	4	0.8	-4.4
Lane, Jason		21	20	26.4	19.5
Langerhans, Ryan	9	11	7.3	7.3
LaRoche, Adam		17	17	17.5	11.7
LaRoche, Andy		-3	-3	-0.3	-0.3
LaRue, Jason		5	5	11.5	16.8
LeCroy, Matt		-1	-1	2.1	0.6
Ledee, Ricky		3	3	2.1	1.2
Lee, Carlos		21	20	13.0	9.3
Lee, Derrek		33	32	46.0	57.9
Lieberthal, Mike	8	8	14.6	11.2
Linden, Todd		0	1	-1.2	-1.2
Lo Duca, Paul		8	8	4.6	-0.1
Lofton, Kenny		16	15	-0.1	7.7
Loney, James		-2	-3	0.3	0.3
Long, Terrence		-2	-2	-1.8	-1.8
Lopez, Felipe		23	23	35.3	25.6
Luna, Hector		6	6	-2.0	-0.4
Mabry, John		2	2	0.2	-2.3
Marrero, Eli		4	4	6.5	5.5
Martin, Russ		-1	-1	0.9	0.9
Martinez, Ramon E.	-2	-2	0.4	-0.3
Matheny, Mike		-3	-2	-3.0	2.5
Matsui, Kazuo		3	3	4.9	4.9
McAnulty, Paul		-3	-3	-0.3	-0.3
McCann, Brian		4	5	-0.2	-0.2
McCracken, Quinton	-2	-2	-3.9	-3.9
McLouth, Nate		8	7	-3.6	-2.8
Menechino, Frank	-4	-4	-1.3	-1.3
Miles, Aaron		0	0	-6.3	-7.0
Milledge, Lastings	2	1	2.8	2.8
Miller, Damian		0	1	2.5	2.5
Mirabelli, Doug		-7	-6	-5.1	-8.5
Moeller, Chad		-4	-2	-0.7	-3.0
Molina, Yadier		4	4	0.2	10.5
Montero, Miguel		-3	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Mueller, Bill		6	7	2.7	2.7
Munson, Eric		-3	-3	-1.5	-1.5
Murton, Matt		7	8	1.8	-1.6
Nady, Xavier		12	11	3.8	3.8
Navarro, Dioner		2	3	3.4	1.8
Niekro, Lance		7	7	-1.3	1.4
Nunez, Abraham O.	2	2	1.4	-0.1
Ojeda, Miguel		-3	-3	0.5	0.5
Olivo, Miguel		4	4	4.9	6.6
Olmedo, Ray		-4	-4	-1.0	-1.0
Orr, Pete		5	5	0.3	0.3
Ortmeier, Dan		-3	-3	-0.1	-0.1
Pagan, Angel		-1	-1	-3.2	-3.2
Palmeiro, Orlando	0	0	-1.4	-1.4
Paulino, Ronny		-2	-2	1.5	1.5
Pena, Brayan		-2	-3	0.6	0.6
Pena, Tony		-3	-3	-1.0	-1.0
Perez, Eddie		-4	-4	-1.0	-1.0
Perez, Neifi		3	3	0.5	8.5
Perez, Timo		-4	-4	-2.5	-2.5
Perez, Tomas		-3	-3	-2.4	-5.1
Piazza, Mike		2	3	8.3	-3.5
Pie, Felix		1	1	1.9	1.9
Piedra, Jorge		1	1	1.1	0.2
Pierre, Juan		41	38	8.5	11.2
Pratt, Todd		-4	-4	-1.5	-1.5
Pujols, Albert		49	46	75.9	79.2
Quentin, Carlos		6	6	7.1	7.1
Quintanilla, Omar	-2	-2	1.5	1.5
Ramirez, Aramis		27	26	40.3	25.2
Ramirez, Hanley		-3	-1	-5.5	-5.5
Randa, Joe		8	8	2.3	7.6
Reed, Eric		1	1	-8.5	-8.5
Renteria, Edgar		21	21	18.3	18.3
Repko, Jason		-2	-3	-2.5	-1.6
Restovich, Mike		-2	-2	-0.3	-1.2
Reyes, Jose		36	34	15.2	5.4
Roberts, Dave		12	12	1.7	4.3
Robles, Oscar		-3	-2	0.0	0.0
Rodriguez, John		1	1	-1.6	-1.6
Rolen, Scott		14	15	15.7	27.3
Rollins, Jimmy		35	33	34.5	27.4
Ross, Cody		-4	-4	-1.1	-1.1
Ross, Dave		-3	-3	-0.6	0.2
Rottino, Vinny		-3	-3	-0.4	-4.6
Rowand, Aaron		25	24	12.6	22.1
Ruiz, Carlos		-2	-3	1.5	1.5
Ryan, Mike		-4	-4	-1.1	-1.1
Saenz, Olmedo		1	1	0.5	-2.2
Salazar, Jeff		-3	-3	-1.0	-1.0
Sanchez, Alex		6	6	1.3	4.0
Sanchez, Freddy		2	2	5.5	3.0
Sandoval, Danny		-2	-3	-0.1	-0.1
Schneider, Brian	5	6	9.6	21.7
Schumaker, Skip		-3	-3	-1.0	-1.0
Scott, Luke		-3	-3	-0.3	-0.3
Seabol, Scott		-3	-3	-0.3	-0.3
Shealy, Ryan		6	5	7.8	8.8
Sledge, Terrmel		0	1	-1.9	-2.8
Smith, Jason		-2	-2	0.0	0.0
Snyder, Chris		-1	-1	2.7	2.7
Sorensen, Zach		-3	-3	-1.0	-1.0
Soriano, Alfonso	23	22	8.7	-5.0
Soto, Geovany		-3	-3	0.1	0.1
Spiezio, Scott		-3	-3	-2.8	-3.6
Spilborghs, Ryan	-3	-3	-0.1	-0.1
Spivey, Junior		9	11	11.2	9.5
Stokes, Jason		-2	-2	-0.2	-0.2
Sullivan, Cory		23	23	14.2	18.8
Sweeney, Mark		10	10	7.7	8.6
Taguchi, So		13	12	2.1	3.9
Taveras, Willy		23	22	-8.9	-2.3
Theriot, Ryan		-3	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Torrealba, Yorvit	4	5	7.0	7.9
Tracy, Chad		28	26	39.7	35.6
Treanor, Matt		-5	-5	-5.8	-5.8
Tucker, Michael		-1	-1	-1.1	-3.5
Uggla, Dan		2	4	-6.4	-6.4
Utley, Chase		20	21	30.9	36.5
Valent, Eric		-3	-3	-1.3	-1.3
Valentin, Javier	6	6	13.9	15.7
Valentin, Jose		-3	-3	0.4	1.2
Victorino, Shane	7	7	3.0	3.0
Vidro, Jose		7	8	12.8	2.7
Vizcaino, Jose		-2	-1	-0.3	-0.3
Vizquel, Omar		6	7	1.6	10.9
Walker, Todd		10	9	14.5	4.8
Ward, Daryle		-2	-2	-4.0	-4.0
Watson, Brandon		8	8	-11.5	-11.5
Weeks, Rickie		25	24	27.4	18.6
Werth, Jayson		9	9	4.4	4.4
Willingham, Josh	12	13	25.9	25.0
Wilson, Craig		5	5	6.1	3.4
Wilson, Jack		18	18	14.8	30.4
Wilson, Josh		-2	-2	1.7	1.7
Wilson, Preston		14	15	13.2	15.0
Winn, Randy		30	29	24.1	34.7
Wise, Dewayne		-2	-2	0.5	-5.0
Womack, Tony		10	10	-6.9	-14.9
Woodward, Chris		-1	-1	1.7	0.1
Wright, David		39	37	38.6	29.7
Young, Chris		0	0	1.3	1.3
Young, Eric		0	0	0.0	0.0
Young, Walter		-3	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Zimmerman, Ryan		13	13	3.1	3.1


Please feel free to write us with your questions and comments.

Tomorrow we will post and review our AL pitcher projections.


Today's Fantasy Rx: The clustering apparent at each infield position gives us obvious spending targets for each group. Allocate either $30 or $20 on a 1B, $19 for 2B, $25 for 3B, $19 for SS, and maybe $10 for two $5 catchers. Use your COR, MIF, UT, and outfield slots to supplement statistical holes, bargain hunt, and generally search for value maximization. Spending around $100 on the six primary infield positions in NL leagues should secure you a superb offensive foundation while maintaining plenty of cash in reserve to diversify the rest of your team using whatever overall strategy you prefer.


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