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March
29th
2006
Your Daily Fantasy Rx
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2006 AL Batter Draft Values
by Tim Polko

Today's Fantasy Rx

Download the spreadsheet with our complete projected stats for 4x4, 5x5, simulation, and Scoresheet leagues here. The file also includes position eligibility data based on the standard 20 game minimum.

The Draft Values presented below only apply to AL-only 12 team leagues using traditional 4x4 or 5x5 scoring and $260 of cap space to draft 14 hitters and 9 pitchers employing a 70/30 hitting/pitching split. Based on league data and recent trends, we selected a .2567 BA as the baseline value necessary to calculate the BA Category Dollars.

Simulation league projections involve computing Runs Above Replacement for each hitter, and then our Scoresheet projections adjust that RAR to consider each player's defensive rating in that format.

While we undoubtedly missed a few dozen players who unexpectedly will reach the majors this season, we included the only 284 American League batters with any significant chance of deserving a nomination in your 2006 spring draft.


Top 3 AL 4x4 Batters: Scott Podsednik, $50; Ichiro Suzuki, $38; Carl Crawford, $36.

Top 3 AL 5x5 Batters: Scott Podsednik, $46; Ichiro Suzuki, $37; Carl Crawford, $34.

Top 3 Sim Batters: Mark Teixeira, 46.9 RAR; Travis Hafner, 46.3; Vlad Guerrero, 45.7.

Top 3 Scoresheet Batters: Mark Teixeira, 48.6 ARAR; Eric Chavez, 48.6; Miguel Tejada, 46.8.


Most Likely Fantasy Breakouts by position:

C: Joe Mauer, Gerald Laird.

1B: Chris Shelton, Justin Morneau.

3B: Hank Blalock, Kevin Youkilis.

2B: Jose Lopez, Ian Kinsler.

SS: Bobby Crosby, Yuniesky Betancourt, B.J. Upton.

OF: Corey Patterson, Curtis Granderson, Joey Gathright, Alexis Rios, Juan Rivera.

Top 3 Batters who could beat this projection with more AB: Joey Gathright, B.J. Upton, Luis Matos.

"Cheap" speed that shouldn't cost this much: Pablo Ozuna, Willie Bloomquist, Willie Harris.

Top 4 "$1" Catchers: Gerald Laird, Mike Redmond, Gregg Zaun, Josh Bard.

Top 2006 AL Batter Sleeper: Joey Gathright, $19/$17. While I considered several candidates for this slot, particularly Corey Patterson and Luis Matos, the key to Gathright is that he both enters the year as an everyday player and will find a permanent spot atop a batting order if Tampa ever moves him. He could clear $40 if dealt to Florida by Opening Day, so if your league lets you keep crossovers, consider him a superb bargain anywhere under $15.


Rotohelp's 2006 AL Batter Projected Draft Values

Batter			4x4	5x5	RAR	ARAR
Adams, Russ		14	16	6.5	-1.6
Alfonzo, Edgardo	7	6	4.8	1.5
Ambres, Chip		0	0	-1.5	-0.7
Anderson, Brian		6	7	0.0	0.8
Anderson, Garret	17	16	7.6	6.8
Arias, Joaquin		-1	-1	-0.1	-0.1
Aubrey, Mike		-1	-2	0.0	0.0
Aybar, Erick		-1	-2	-1.3	-1.3
Bako, Paul		-4	-4	-5.1	-4.4
Baldelli, Rocco		15	15	8.8	10.6
Bankston, Wes		-1	-2	1.2	1.2
Barajas, Rod		2	3	1.7	5.1
Bard, Josh		0	0	-0.1	0.7
Bartlett, Jason		9	9	4.5	10.3
Barton, Daric		0	0	1.6	1.6
Batista, Tony		1	2	-9.6	-9.6
Belliard, Ron		14	14	13.8	17.3
Beltre, Adrian		14	14	15.1	30.5
Berroa, Angel		15	15	2.3	-3.4
Betancourt, Yuniesky	11	11	1.1	-0.6
Blake, Casey		10	11	10.5	7.8
Blalock, Hank		17	17	18.1	24.3
Blanco, Andres		-1	-2	-2.7	-2.7
Bloomquist, Willie	6	5	-5.8	-8.7
Bohn, T.J.		-1	-2	-0.8	-0.8
Boone, Aaron		7	8	-2.3	0.2
Borchard, Joe		-2	-2	-3.7	-3.7
Botts, Jason		0	0	0.2	0.2
Bowen, Rob		-2	-3	-1.3	-1.3
Bradley, Milton		20	20	19.9	30.4
Branyan, Russell	-1	-2	1.4	1.4
Broussard, Ben		7	8	9.4	8.4
Brown, Emil		10	10	2.0	-0.5
Brown, Jeremy		-2	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Buck, John		4	5	0.7	2.4
Burke, Jamie		-2	-2	-0.7	-0.7
Burroughs, Sean		2	2	-1.6	0.0
Bynum, Freddie		-1	-2	-2.6	-2.6
Cabrera, Orlando	18	19	4.4	1.9
Cairo, Miguel		5	4	-0.7	-4.5
Calzado, Napoleon	-1	-2	-0.9	-0.9
Cano, Robinson		14	14	8.0	6.3
Cantu, Jorge		13	13	12.0	3.6
Cash, Kevin		-1	-2	0.1	0.1
Castillo, Luis		23	23	17.2	32.2
Castro, Juan		-3	-3	-9.2	-7.0
Catalanotto, Frank	8	8	4.7	2.1
Chavez, Eric		24	24	32.1	48.6
Choi, Hee Seop		3	3	3.2	3.2
Choo, Shin-Soo		-1	-2	0.3	0.3
Cintron, Alex		3	3	0.9	-3.9
Conine, Jeff		4	4	2.8	2.8
Cora, Alex		6	7	3.2	5.8
Cosby, Rob		-1	-2	0.9	0.9
Costa, Shane		-1	-2	0.2	0.2
Crawford, Carl		36	34	18.5	19.4
Crede, Joe		7	8	2.8	2.8
Crisp, Coco		32	31	34.9	37.8
Crosby, Bobby		17	18	23.0	35.0
Crosby, Bubba		-4	-4	-6.4	-5.8
Cuddyer, Mike		7	8	8.9	7.2
Damon, Johnny		29	29	12.2	22.0
DeJesus, David		24	24	23.6	35.8
Dellucci, David		8	8	14.3	9.0
DeRosa, Mark		2	2	2.1	-1.2
Diaz, Einar		-3	-3	-3.2	-3.2
Dobbs, Greg		0	-1	-0.6	-0.6
Dubois, Jason		0	0	1.3	0.4
Duncan, Eric		-1	-1	0.5	0.5
Dye, Jermaine		22	21	22.5	16.9
Ellis, Mark		15	17	21.8	28.1
Erstad, Darin		13	14	-0.5	7.1
Escalona, Felix		-1	-1	-1.7	-1.7
Everett, Carl		0	1	-9.1	-12.9
Fields, Josh		-2	-3	-0.7	-0.7
Figgins, Chone		31	30	11.2	7.9
Ford, Lew		12	12	10.2	11.1
Freire, Alejandro	-1	-2	-0.2	-0.2
Garko, Ryan		0	0	1.6	1.6
Gathright, Joey		19	17	-2.7	2.3
German, Esteban		2	1	-1.0	-1.0
Giambi, Jason		15	16	40.3	29.6
Giarratano, Tony	-1	-2	-0.6	-0.6
Gibbons, Jay		19	19	21.0	19.1
Gil, Geronimo		-3	-3	-5.2	-5.2
Ginter, Keith		-1	-1	-0.2	-0.9
Glaus, Troy		15	16	28.0	20.6
Gload, Ross		3	2	3.3	3.3
Gomes, Jonny		13	13	15.1	11.5
Gomez, Alexis		-1	-2	-1.0	-1.0
Gomez, Chris		0	0	-1.4	-5.9
Gonzalez, Alex		3	3	0.5	6.3
Gorneault, Nick		-1	-2	-0.1	-0.1
Gotay, Ruben		-1	-1	-0.7	-1.4
Graffanino, Tony	1	1	-1.7	0.6
Granderson, Curtis	19	19	24.7	34.4
Green, Nick		0	0	-1.6	-1.6
Griffin, John-Ford	-1	-2	-0.1	-0.1
Grudzielanek, Mark	6	7	2.1	6.1
Guerrero, Vladimir	36	34	45.7	41.7
Guiel, Aaron		1	1	-2.0	-1.2
Guillen, Carlos		18	18	22.0	24.8
Gutierrez, Franklin	-1	-1	-1.5	-1.5
Hafner, Travis		25	25	46.3	46.3
Hall, Toby		2	2	-5.5	-0.9
Harris, Willie		3	3	-0.6	-0.6
Hernandez, Ramon	14	13	14.6	15.5
Hill, Aaron		4	6	2.2	3.0
Hillenbrand, Shea	20	21	22.8	14.6
Hinske, Eric		9	9	2.5	0.8
Hollandsworth, Todd	0	0	-1.7	-2.5
Hollins, Damon		-1	-1	-1.5	-0.7
Huber, Justin		5	5	2.8	2.8
Huckaby, Ken		-2	-3	-1.4	-1.4
Huff, Aubrey		18	18	15.5	16.4
Hunter, Torii		27	26	13.4	22.6
Hyzdu, Adam		-1	-2	0.4	0.4
Ibanez, Raul		17	18	12.0	12.0
Iguchi, Tadahito	18	16	18.5	14.0
Infante, Omar		9	9	6.1	7.8
Inge, Brandon		13	12	11.3	15.7
Izturis, Maicer		4	4	-0.6	-1.4
Jeter, Derek		22	22	18.1	13.0
Jimenez, D'Angelo	-1	-2	0.2	0.2
Johjima, Kenji		11	11	10.0	10.0
Johnson, Dan		14	14	16.8	13.1
Johnson, Reed		8	8	1.8	1.8
Jones, Adam		0	-1	1.1	1.1
Kapler, Gabe		2	2	-1.2	-2.0
Kendall, Jason		13	13	0.1	-3.8
Kendrick, Howie		2	1	1.4	1.4
Kennedy, Adam		12	11	2.1	7.0
Kielty, Bobby		2	3	1.9	1.0
Kinsler, Ian		9	10	4.8	4.8
Konerko, Paul		24	24	35.3	32.4
Kotchman, Casey		9	9	7.5	9.3
Kotsay, Mark		17	18	14.0	25.9
Kubel, Jason		3	3	3.7	3.7
Laird, Gerald		4	3	5.9	7.7
Laker, Tim		-2	-3	-1.4	-1.4
Lawton, Matt		2	3	-2.6	-4.2
Lee, Travis		10	10	4.6	10.9
Logan, Nook		12	11	-5.8	0.7
Lopez, Javy		12	12	13.4	9.0
Lopez, Jose		14	13	5.2	5.2
Lopez, Pedro		-2	-3	-1.6	-1.6
Loretta, Mark		19	19	16.3	26.8
Lowell, Mike		7	7	9.2	15.5
Lugo, Julio		33	31	23.8	35.8
Lydon, Wayne		-1	-2	-1.2	-1.2
Machado, Alejandro	-1	-2	-0.6	-0.6
Mackowiak, Rob		7	6	0.4	-1.9
Majewski, Val		1	0	-1.9	-1.9
Markakis, Nick		7	7	7.6	7.6
Marte, Andy		3	3	7.9	7.9
Martinez, Victor	24	24	38.3	29.9
Mathis, Jeff		1	2	-1.6	-1.6
Matos, Luis		15	14	0.2	5.3
Matsui, Hideki		25	25	33.7	23.3
Matthews, Jr., Gary	4	5	1.1	6.3
Mauer, Joe		20	20	23.9	29.3
McDonald, John		0	0	-4.6	-2.3
McDougall, Marshall	2	1	3.2	3.2
McEwing, Joe		-1	-2	-0.8	-0.8
McPherson, Dallas	1	1	2.3	4.0
Melhuse, Adam		-1	-1	-1.4	-1.4
Mench, Kevin		15	16	20.8	15.3
Michaels, Jason		8	10	6.5	11.6
Mientkiewicz, Doug	0	1	-7.0	-5.4
Millar, Kevin		5	5	2.3	3.2
Miller, Corky		-2	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Mohr, Dustan		-1	-2	-0.2	-0.2
Molina, Ben		9	9	4.4	10.3
Molina, Jose		-3	-3	-5.5	-2.6
Monroe, Craig		16	15	3.3	6.8
Mora, Melvin		23	22	26.8	21.3
Morales, Kendry		0	0	0.5	0.5
Morneau, Justin		10	12	11.8	6.4
Morse, Mike		-1	-1	-2.7	-4.2
Murphy, Donnie		-1	-2	-0.1	-0.1
Napoli, Mike		-2	-2	-0.4	-0.4
Nevin, Phil		8	8	2.0	-2.3
Newhan, David		5	5	1.6	1.6
Nieves, Wil		-2	-3	-2.0	-2.0
Nix, Laynce		1	1	-0.7	1.0
Nixon, Trot		12	12	13.5	10.7
Ordonez, Magglio	20	19	24.2	20.4
Ortiz, David		24	24	44.1	37.2
Overbay, Lyle		21	21	32.6	41.3
Owens, Jerry		-1	-2	-1.5	-1.5
Ozuna, Pablo		5	5	-3.1	-4.6
Patterson, Corey	21	20	3.1	12.1
Paul, Josh		-1	-1	-0.3	-0.3
Payton, Jay		7	7	0.9	5.2
Pedroia, Dustin		0	-1	0.2	0.2
Pena, Wily Mo		10	10	12.9	13.8
Peralta, Jhonny		14	15	17.4	23.6
Perez, Antonio		9	8	7.5	4.1
Perez, Eduardo		0	0	1.8	0.9
Petagine, Roberto	0	-1	1.8	1.8
Phelps, Josh		-1	-2	-0.2	-0.2
Phillips, Andy		1	1	1.8	1.8
Phillips, Brandon	-1	-1	-1.5	-1.5
Phillips, Jason		-2	-2	-1.1	-2.5
Phillips, Paul		-1	-2	-0.8	-0.8
Pierzynski, A.J.	10	10	8.2	3.1
Podsednik, Scott	50	46	6.7	13.8
Polanco, Placido	21	22	16.5	31.7
Posada, Jorge		5	6	8.2	7.4
Pride, Curtis		-2	-2	-1.0	-1.0
Pridie, Jason		-1	-2	-0.2	-0.2
Punto, Nick		0	0	-8.1	-8.8
Quinlan, Robb		4	4	5.9	3.2
Quiroz, Guillermo	-2	-3	-0.8	-0.8
Ramirez, Manny		20	20	33.1	15.2
Ransom, Cody		-2	-3	-0.7	-0.7
Redmond, Mike		2	1	-0.2	-1.0
Reed, Jeremy		13	14	6.8	12.9
Reese, Kevin		-1	-2	-0.8	-0.8
Relaford, Desi		-2	-2	-1.8	-2.5
Rios, Alexis		15	15	1.8	6.0
Rivas, Luis		-1	-2	-0.8	-0.8
Rivera, Juan		12	13	9.9	8.1
Rivera, Rene		-1	-2	-2.7	-2.7
Roberts, Brian		33	32	39.2	41.1
Rodriguez, Alex		34	33	45.2	46.2
Rodriguez, Ivan		10	11	2.3	9.1
Rodriguez, Luis		0	0	1.6	2.4
Rogowski, Casey		-2	-2	-1.1	-1.1
Romero, Alex		-1	-2	0.8	0.8
Rose, Mike		-2	-3	-0.6	-0.6
Salmon, Tim		-1	-1	-1.8	-2.6
Sanders, Reggie		10	10	10.3	2.5
Santiago, Ramon		-2	-2	-2.0	-2.0
Scutaro, Marco		0	0	1.0	1.8
Sexson, Richie		18	19	34.6	30.7
Sheffield, Gary		22	22	26.2	15.3
Shelton, Chris		15	15	17.6	23.3
Shoppach, Kelly		-2	-2	-0.8	-0.8
Sierra, Ruben		-2	-3	-3.6	-5.1
Sizemore, Grady		25	25	19.9	33.1
Snead, Esix		-1	-2	-1.9	-1.9
Snelling, Chris		0	-1	1.4	1.4
Snow, J.T.		1	1	0.3	0.3
Snyder, Brad		-1	-2	0.2	0.2
Stairs, Matt		5	5	3.9	0.5
Stern, Adam		3	2	0.4	0.4
Stewart, Chris		-2	-2	-0.7	-0.7
Stewart, Shannon	12	12	0.1	-4.8
Stinnett, Kelly		-2	-2	-3.3	-4.1
Suzuki, Ichiro		38	37	18.8	18.8
Sweeney, Mike		17	17	17.6	14.8
Sweeney, Ryan		-1	-2	-1.2	-1.2
Swisher, Nick		5	6	6.2	6.2
Taylor, Reggie		-2	-2	-2.1	-2.1
Teahen, Mark		3	5	0.9	-4.7
Teixeira, Mark		31	31	46.9	58.3
Tejada, Miguel		28	27	36.1	46.8
Thames, Marcus		9	9	12.3	13.3
Thomas, Charles		-1	-2	-0.8	-0.8
Thomas, Frank		5	6	12.3	12.3
Thome, Jim		5	6	9.0	2.1
Thompson, Kevin		-1	-2	-0.8	-0.8
Tiffee, Terry		-1	-2	-0.2	-0.2
Tyner, Jason		-1	-2	-0.8	-0.8
Upton, B.J.		16	15	8.2	8.2
Uribe, Juan		16	17	14.1	27.7
Varitek, Jason		9	9	14.9	14.0
Vazquez, Ramon		0	0	-1.4	-2.9
Wells, Vernon		23	23	22.1	36.4
White, Rondell		15	14	15.5	15.5
Whiteside, Eli		-2	-3	-1.6	-1.6
Widger, Chris		-2	-2	-2.9	-3.6
Wigginton, Ty		3	3	4.0	1.4
Wilkerson, Brad		15	16	18.1	20.8
Williams, Bernie	2	2	-0.4	-3.7
Williams, Glenn		-1	-2	0.1	0.1
Wilson, Vance		0	0	-1.1	-1.1
Wood, Brandon		0	-1	0.9	0.9
Youkilis, Kevin		9	10	15.5	18.2
Young, Delmon		8	7	-0.4	-0.4
Young, Dmitri		10	10	5.3	2.6
Young, Mike		25	26	29.9	13.1
Zaun, Gregg		1	1	2.5	0.9


Please feel free to write us with your questions and comments.

Tomorrow we will post and review our NL batter projections.


Today's Fantasy Rx: An at-bat difference explains the discrepancy between the projected RAR/ARAR values and the generally loftier 2005 values for the top players at each position. Due to injury concerns, lineup changes, and other factors, we only projected seven AL batters for 600+ at-bats and eleven more for 575 at-bats. Last season twenty-four American Leaguers exceeded 600 at-bats while another twenty hit 575 or more. If you believe a given player will exceed our projection, please bid those extra dollars to secure the guys you want. Rostering a team of players that you enjoy owning often provides just as much fun as winning and frequently can salvage your investment in otherwise lost seasons.


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