Today's Fantasy Rx

Pitchers in Spring Training who Missed Most or All of 2004

Jorge Campillo, 26, SEA NRI; P:R, B:R.
5-5 on a 66:28 K:BB in 98.2 IP over 16 GS(17G)
with 120 H, 14 HR, and a 5.38 ERA for I Angelopolis(Mex).
Appropriate 2005 Role: AAAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2009.
2005 Fantasy Potential: Roster filler.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2010.

While nothing in this soft-tosser's stats excite me, Campillo benefits from good scouting reports and excellent control. I certainly don't envision him as a superior option to Ryan Franklin, Cha Seung Baek, or even Clint Nageotte, but if he pitches well at Tacoma, don't be surprised to see Campillo in the majors before autumn.

Phil Dumatrait, 23, CIN 40-man; P:L, B:R.
2003 stats: 7-5 on a 74:59 K:BB in 104.1 IP over 20 GS
with 74 H, 4 HR, and a 3.02 ERA for A+ Sarasota(FSL).
4-1 on a 32:14 K:BB in 37.2 IP over 7 GS
with 36 H, 2 HR, and a 3.35 ERA for A+ Potomac(Car).
Appropriate 2005 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA reliever by 2008.
2005 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2010.

Decreasing command largely ruined Dumatrait's prospect status even before Tommy John surgery cost him all of 2004. Nothing in his recent stats suggests he'll develop into more than a serviceable arm in the upper minors.

Runelvys Hernandez, 26, KC 40-man; P:R, B:R.
2003 stats: 7-5 on a 48:37 K:BB in 91.2 IP over 16 GS
with 87 H, 9 HR, a 1.17 G-F, and a 4.52 ERA for Kansas City.
1-0 on a 5:2 K:BB in 5 IP over 1 GS
with 3 H, 0 HR, and a 1.80 ERA for AAA Omaha(PCL).
0-2 on a 5:5 K:BB in 9.1 IP over 2 GS
with 87 H, 9 HR, and a 3.86 ERA for AA Wichita(TL).
Appropriate 2005 Role: AAAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2008.
2005 Fantasy Potential: $5.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2010.

Hopefully the Royals will realize that this Tommy John survivor needs more minor league seasoning given his minimal experience above A-ball. The presence of quality AAA starters Mike Wood and Dennis Tankersley in camp should allow Kansas City to send Hernandez back to Omaha for a few months. Given his unimpressive performance two years ago, I fully expect Hernandez to combust if thrust right into the rotation, so don't risk more than a late-round pick if he breaks camp in the majors.

Dae Sung Koo, 35, NYM NRI; P:L, B:L.
99:44 K:BB in 116.2 IP over 15 GS(18G)
with 105 H, 24 HR, and a 4.32 ERA for Orix(Japan).
Appropriate 2005 Role: AAAA swingman.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league reliever by 2006.
2005 Fantasy Potential: Roster filler.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2007.

Consistent homer problems leave me believing that even giving Koo much consideration as roster filler is a bad idea. While he might emerge as a useful reliever in New York, I see at least a half-dozen promising youngsters in camp far more deserving of any available much more deserving of any available big league innings.

Joe Mays, 28, MIN 40-man; P:R, B:S.
2003 stats: 8-8 on a 50:39 K:BB in 130 IP over 21 GS(31G)
with 159 H, 21 HR, a 1.32 G-F, and a 6.30 ERA for Minnesota.
Appropriate 2005 Role: AAAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2007.
2005 Fantasy Potential: $5.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2008.

With deteriorating skills crushing his fantasy value even prior to Tommy John surgery in the September of 2003, Mays merits much less consideration right now than prospects like J.D. Durbin and Scott Baker from both roto owners and the Twins. At least he rarely suffers from control problems, but his very weak dominance gives him little chance to reemerge as a strong contributor this year. Risking anything more than a reserve pick here seems quite unwise.

Fernando Rodney, 27, DET 40-man; P:R, B:R.
2003 stats: 1-3 and 3 Saves on a 33:17 K:BB in 29.2 IP over 27 G
with 35 H, 2 HR, a .92 G-F, and a 6.07 ERA for Detroit.
1-1 and 23 Saves on a 58:13 K:BB in 40.2 IP over 38 G
with 22 H, 0 HR, and a 1.33 ERA for AAA Toledo(IL).
Appropriate 2005 Role: AAAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league closer by 2008.
2005 Fantasy Potential: $5.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $25 by 2009.

Rodney appeared ready to emerge as a key short reliever for Detroit last spring before April Tommy John surgery cost him the entire regular season. Now he appears healthy and ready to build on his impressive 2003 performance. The biggest reason to avoid Rodney is that he struggled in the majors even before his injury, not to mention the addition of Troy Percival should exclude him from most save opportunities. However, Rodney's overall dominance still makes him an intriguing late-round gamble in reasonably deep leagues.

Orlando Rodriguez, 23, LA 40-man; P:L, B:L.
2003 stats: 1-2 on a 14:7 K:BB in 12 IP over 11 G
with 10 H, 1 HR, and a 3.75 ERA for AA Jacksonville(SL).
Appropriate 2005 Role: A+/AA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league reliever by 2009.
2005 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2010.

With only 47 innings above Rookie-ball and most of the last three years lost to injury, Rodriguez should need at least two more years of seasoning before earning serious consideration for a big league job. The Dodgers' surprisingly full pitching staff simply lacks the room for another elbow surgery survivor with relatively unimpressive numbers even before his injury.

Ryan Rupe, 29, LA NRI; P:R, B:R.
1-4 on a 20:9 K:BB in 29.2 IP over 6 GS
with 41 H, 5 HR, and a 6.67 ERA for Hokkaido Nippon(Japan).
Appropriate 2005 Role:.
Long-term Upside & ETA:.
2005 Fantasy Potential: .
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA:.

We viewed Rupe as an excellent sleeper back with Tampa, and despite his poor performance overseas, his 3.20 ERA on a 78:20 K:BB in 104 IP for AAA Pawtucket(IL) in 2003 remains our considered opinion of his big league upside. Given he still owns good control and Dodger Stadium will minimize his occasional longball tendencies, Rupe ranks as a solid sleeper if he receives a chance in Los Angeles.

Scott Sauerbeck, 32, CLE 40-man; P:L, B:R.
2003 stats: 3-5 on a 50:43 K:BB in 56.2 IP over 79 G
with 47 H, 6 HR, a 2.14 G-F, and a 4.77 ERA between Pittsburgh and Boston.
Appropriate 2005 Role: AAAA reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league reliever by 2006.
2005 Fantasy Potential: Roster filler.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2008.

Shoulder surgery last winter, combined with growing command problems, make Sauerbeck a serious risk even if he wasn't just Cleveland's lefty specialist. His relative dominance simply shouldn't translate into much fantasy success, so avoid him as anything more than roster filler unless he somehow rebound to his 2002 form.

Zach Segovia, 21, PHI 40-man; P:R, B:R.
2003 stats: 1-5 on a 27:14 K:BB in 49.2 IP over 10 GS(11G)
with 63 H, 2 HR, and a 4.02 ERA for A Lakewood(SAL).
0-1 on a 6:0 K:BB in 9 IP over 4 GS(5G)
with 8 H, 0 HR, and a 4.00 ERA for R Phillies(GCL).
Appropriate 2005 Role: A/A+ starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA reliever by 2010.
2005 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2012.

At least Segovia completed his Tommy John rehab at a fairly young age. Unfortunately nothing in his admittedly limited career suggests he should move up the minor league ladder at any accelerated pace, so he merits only the briefest discussion now.

Kyle Snyder, 27, KC 40-man; P:R, B:S.
2003 stats: 1-6 on a 39:21 K:BB in 85.1 IP over 15 GS
with 94 H, 11 HR, a 1.29 G-F, and a 5.17 ERA for Kansas City.
3-0 on a 15:6 K:BB in 29 IP over 5 GS
with 28 H, 3 HR, and a 2.79 ERA for AAA Omaha(PCL).
0-0 on a 2:0 K:BB in 5 IP over 1 GS
with 2 H, 0 HR, and a 0.00 ERA for AA Wichita(TL).
0-0 on a 1:0 K:BB in 2 IP over 1 GS
with 3 H, 0 HR, and a 4.50 ERA for R Royals(AZL).
Appropriate 2005 Role: AA/AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league reliever by 2008.
2005 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $10 by 2009.

The severe fragility of the seventh overall pick in 1999 prevented Snyder from amassing more than 225 IP in his four-season, six-year professional career. Missing all of 2001 and 2004, combined with never exceeding 121 innings in a single season, suggests Snyder shouldn't contribute to a successful fantasy team at any point. I want to see him compile a strong skill set over several months in the upper minors before recommending him anywhere.

Alay Soler, 24, NYM 40-man; P:R, B:R.
No 2004 stats.
Appropriate 2005 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2009.
2005 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2011.

With little recent pitching experience and no relevant statistical history, no fantasy team should select Soler until he begins posting decent skills in the minors. His long-term upside listed here owes more to rumor and general conjecture than analysis of Soler's limited record.

Tim Spooneybarger, 24, FLO 40-man; P:R, B:R.
2003 stats: 1-2 on a 32:11 K:BB in 42 IP over 33 G
with 27 H, 1 HR, a 3.75 G-F, and a 4.07 ERA for Florida.
Appropriate 2005 Role: Major league short reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league closer by 2006.
2005 Fantasy Potential: $10.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $30 by 2008.

Tommy John surgery in September of 2003 unexpectedly cost Spooneybarger all of last season, yet he still entered camp in prime position to win a key late-inning slot for the Marlins. He demonstrated excellent all-around skills despite his health problems two years ago, and his limited dominance fits surprisingly well on a team with as much defensive upside as Florida. Certainly spend a reserve pick on Spooneybarger even if he begins the year in the minors since he warrants no less than a strong endgame bid if he breaks camp with the Marlins as I expect.

Chris Spurling, 27, DET 40-man; P:R, B:R.
2003 stats: 1-3 and 3 Saves on a 38:22 K:BB in 77 IP over 66 G
with 78 H, 9 HR, a 1.07 G-F, and a 4.68 ERA for Detroit.
Appropriate 2005 Role:.
Long-term Upside & ETA:.
2005 Fantasy Potential: .
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA:.

The 2002 Rule pick pitched effectively for the Tigers during their horrid 2003 season before succumbing to Tommy John surgery last March. Spurling now probably needs at least a few months in the upper minors to hone his skills before meriting a serious look in Detroit, and until you see his skills improve, a history of only solid control and limited dominance doesn't warrant fantasy consideration.

Brian Stokes, 25, TB 40-man; P:R, B:R.
2003 stats: 2-5 on a 33:13 K:BB in 50.2 IP over 10 GS
with 55 H, 2 HR, and a 3.20 ERA for AA Orlando(SL).
Appropriate 2005 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #3 starter by 2009.
2005 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2010.

Losing the last one-and-a-half seasons to Tommy John surgery doesn't jeopardize Stokes' prospect status due to the solid skills he demonstrated prior to the injury. Yes, he needs at least another full year in the minors and may not reach Tampa until 2007, but I understand why the Rays kept him on their 40-man roster. At least consider Stokes a mild long-term sleeper for a rotation slot in Tampa.

Jon Switzer, 25, TB 40-man; P:L, B:L.
2003 stats: 0-0 on a 7:3 K:BB in 9.2 IP over 5 G
with 13 H, 2 HR, a 1.17 G-F, and a 7.45 ERA for Tampa Bay.
1-0 on a 3:0 K:BB in 5 IP over 1 GS
with 6 H, 1 HR, and a 1.80 ERA for AAA Durham(IL).
8-8 on a 100:32 K:BB in 126 IP over 22 GS
with 117 H, 10 HR, and a 3.43 ERA for AA Orlando(SL).
Appropriate 2005 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #2 starter by 2010.
2005 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $25 by 2011.

Switzer absolutely dominated A-ball and remained very effective in the Southern League before Tampa overpromoted him, an added strain that likely led to his 2004 Tommy John surgery last May. Now Switzer should spend this season rehabbing in the minors before challenging for a rotation spot next spring, so ignore him until you see his skills rebound to his 2003 ratios.

Erick Threets, 22, SF 40-man; P:L, B:L.
2003 stats: 0-0 on a 16:21 K:BB in 11.1 IP over 11 G
with 15 H, 1 HR, and a 15.88 ERA for AA Norwich(EL).
2-3 on a 47:42 K:BB in 49.2 IP over 22 G
with 26 H, 2 HR, and a 3.29 ERA for A Hagerstown(SAL).
Appropriate 2005 Role: A/A+ reliever.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA reliever by 2008.
2005 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2010.

Possessing an incredibly live arm and almost no control whatsoever, Threets' lost season hopefully will result in a more mature pitcher capable of improving on his 7.3 career walk rate. Of course, absolutely nothing here suggests he even should succeed at AA this year, making Threets a terrible pick in any league.

Billy Traber, 25, CLE NRI; P:L, B:L.
2003 stats: 6-9 on an 88:40 K:BB in 111.2 IP over 18 GS(33G)
with 132 H, 15 HR, a 1.55 G-F, and a 5.24 ERA for Cleveland.
Appropriate 2005 Role:.
Long-term Upside & ETA:.
2005 Fantasy Potential: .
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA:.

One of the Indians' top prospects prior to Tommy John surgery in the fall of 2003, Traber briefly joined the Red Sox after Cleveland attempted to slip him through waivers last fall, however Boston eventually non-tendered the southpaw due to health concerns, so he returned to the Indians on a minor league deal. Now Traber, who owns the skills necessary to succeed in almost any role, will compete for a job this spring before likely emerging as a surprise starting option during the season if he rebounds as I expect. A history of solid control and impressive effectiveness portends a bright future for the 16th overall pick of the 2000 draft. Selecting Traber in a late round this spring offers significant upside in any AL league.

Ryan Wing, 22, TEX 40-man; P:L, B:L.
2003 stats: 9-7 on a 107:67 K:BB in 145 IP over 26 GS
with 116 H, 9 HR, and a 2.98 ERA for A+ Winston-Salem(Car).
Appropriate 2005 Role: A+/AA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: AAAA reliever by 2009.
2005 Fantasy Potential: None.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $5 by 2011.

I don't blame the White Sox for losing Wing on waivers despite his status as a former second round pick. Wing missed all of last year due to mostly unexplained arm problems and never demonstrated great skills at A-ball over the previous couple seasons. Nothing in his stats suggests a future as more than a capable reliever, making Wing an awful choice right now in fantasy league.

Keiichi Yabu, 36, OAK 40-man; P:R, B:R.
6-9 on a 75:36 K:BB in 116.1 IP over 18 GS(19G)
with 108 H, 8 HR, and a 3.02 ERA for Hanshin(Japan).
Appropriate 2005 Role: Major league swingman.
Long-term Upside & ETA: #4 starter by 2006.
2005 Fantasy Potential: $5.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $15 by 2007.

Only injuries seem likely to open a starting slot for Yabu, so he instead may challenge Justin Duchscherer for the role of soft-tossing long reliever. Of course, Duchscherer absolutely belongs in the majors after spending last season as perhaps Oakland's most consistently effective relief option, so Yabu simply looks like a redundant addition for the Athletics. Considering he ranks as the older member of the 40-man roster and rarely dominated Japanese hitters, I see no reason to gamble more than a Dollar Days' pick given Yabu's likely limited upside.

Several non-roster invitees qualified for the above list yet merit little mention due to the remote likelihood of them contributing to fantasy teams this year, including Manny Aybar(NYM), Mark Guthrie(TB), Albie Lopez(PIT), Hector Mercado(STL), Jose Rosado(NYM), Tony Saunders(BAL), Denny Tomori(BOS), and Raul Valdez(CHC).

A few position players also merit discussion here since they don't fit elsewhere nicely.

Aaron Boone, 31, 3B, CLE 40-man; B:R, T:R.
2003 stats: 158/592 for .267/.327/.453 with 24 HR, 96 RBI, 92 R, 23/26 SB%,
and a 46:104 BB:K between Cincinnati and New York(A).
Appropriate 2005 Role: Major league starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter in 2005.
2005 Fantasy Potential: .
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA:.

Tearing his ACL in a pick-up game last January directly led to the Yankees' acquisition of ARod. Now Boone returns after a season of rehab as the most significant addition of perhaps the most intriguing AL club. While his BA and potential loss of speed concern me, Boone at least should contribute 20 HR and 80 RBI, and if he even adds a dozen steals to his power numbers while holding a .250 BA, he could cruise towards $20 without much effort. Considering he only turns 32 next week, a 30-30 season also still remains a viable goal, so consider him a sleeper anywhere much under $15.

Mark Ellis, 27, OAK 40-man; B:R, T:R.
2003 stats: 137/553 for .248/.313/.371 with 9 HR, 52 RBI, 78 R, 6/8 SB%,
and a 48:94 BB:K for Oakland.
Appropriate 2005 Role: AAAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2006.
2005 Fantasy Potential: $10.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2008.

Tearing his right labrum last spring opened a starting job for Marco Scutaro last season and now leaves Scutaro competing with Ellis and the newly-acquired Keith Ginter as a one-year placeholder before Omar Quintanilla assumes his spot alongside Bobby Crosby. While his previous success on both sides of the ball makes Ellis a slight favorite, expect Ginter to receive significant playing time as perhaps the best right-handed power hitter on Oakland. Limited quantitative upside similarly suggests that spending more than a few bucks on Ellis offers you little chance of seeing any profit.

Tadhito Iguchi, 29, 2B, CHW 40-man; B:R, T:R.
170/510 for .333/.394/.549 with 24 HR, 89 RBI, 96 R, 18/23 SB%,
and a 47:90 BB:K for Fukuoka(Japan).
Appropriate 2005 Role: Major league starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter in 2005.
2005 Fantasy Potential: $25.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $40 by 2007.

Chicago's new starting second baseman averaged 31 steals over the last three season while demonstrating solid plate discipline and impressive BA upside. Iguchi looks like an excellent fit for the remodeled White Sox, and since I doubt he'll cost more than $20 given his comparatively lesser profile than Ichiro and the Matsuis, consider buying Iguchi anywhere in the teens as a likely bargain. He at least should give you a respectable BA and a 15-15 season while potentially emerging as the AL Rookie of the Year.

Kendry Morales, 21, 1B/OF, ANA 40-man; B:S, T:R.
No 2004 stats.
Appropriate 2005 Role: AA/AAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2006.
2005 Fantasy Potential: High-round draft pick.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $30 by 2009.

Considering we know very little about Kendry Morales, the fact that Anaheim secured him with a six-year big league contract provides with perhaps the most significant endorsement of his potential given the Angels' strong track record of evaluating talent in recent years. Morales nicely replaces the high picks lost by signing free agents and easily could develop into another solid "homegrown" masher alongside Casey Kotchman and Dallas McPherson. Now Morales also could bomb horribly, especially with his reported age in doubt following his defection from Cuba, but I also see no reason not to gamble a relatively high pick here, especially in deep leagues with few top prospects available most springs.

Norihiro Nakamura, 31, 3B, LA NRI; P:R, B:R.
106/387 for .274/.390/.468 with 19 HR, 66 RBI, 59 R, 0/0 SB%,
and a 73:88 BB:K for Kintetsu(Japan).
Appropriate 2005 Role: AAAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2006.
2005 Fantasy Potential: $5.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $20 by 2006.

Two unimpressive seasons in a row suggest that Nakamura might peak as a reserve infielder, however he at least owns very impressive plate discipline and sufficient power to prove quite valuable even in a limited role. While I don't expect him to provide any obstacle between the Jose Valentin/Antonio Perez platoon and the emergence of Joel Guzman as the Dodgers' third baseman, Nakamura also at least shouldn't hurt you as a late-round gamble in NL league.

Roberto Petagine, 33, 1B/OF, BOS NRI; B:L, T:L.
111/383 for .290/.409/.561 with 29 HR, 84 RBI, 70 R, 2/3 SB%,
and a 75:76 BB:K for Yakult(Japan).
Appropriate 2005 Role: AAAA starter.
Long-term Upside & ETA: Major league starter by 2006.
2005 Fantasy Potential: $5.
Long-term Fantasy Upside & ETA: $25 by 2006.

Spending the last several seasons as perhaps the best American player in Japan cost Petagine any extended chance at big league success. Of course, considering no MLB team gave him a real shot despite his excellent batting skills during the last decade, at least he enjoyed a productive career in the next best environment. Petagine absolutely should break camp with the Red Sox, and although only a rash of injuries will provide him with more than a couple hundred at-bats, gambling a couple bucks here offers little downside while further establishing your sabermetric street cred. He even might compete to succeed Kevin Millar as Boston's DH in 2006.

AL Relief Pitcher Week begins tomorrow.

Today's Fantasy Rx: Only Tadahito Iguchi and Aaron Boone deserve double-digit bids of the players listed above. Among the largely unimpressive crop of pitchers, Spooneybarger, Traber, and Yabu merit the most attention, yet none of this trio even warrants more than a couple bucks in any league. Ryan Rupe and Roberto Petagine look like the deepest sleepers here, only needing regular playing time to approach double-digit value.